posteriori/E+ via Getty Images Stocks for the week ended April 3 were 1,911 Bcf vs. 1,861 Bcf (revised from 1,865 Bcf) for the week ended March 27. Net change: +50 Bcf vs. +32 Bcf (revised from +36 Bcf) for the week ended March 27. Consensus: +41B Natural Gas Futures ( NG1:COM ) -0.7% to $2.70/MMBtu. ETFs: ( UNG ), ( BOIL ), ( KOLD ), ( FCG ), ( UNL ), ( HNU:CA ) Click here to read the full EIA We...
posteriori/E+ via Getty Images Stocks for the week ended April 3 were 1,911 Bcf vs. 1,861 Bcf (revised from 1,865 Bcf) for the week ended March 27. Net change: +50 Bcf vs. +32 Bcf (revised from +36 Bcf) for the week ended March 27. Consensus: +41B Natural Gas Futures ( NG1:COM ) -0.7% to $2.70/MMBtu. ETFs: ( UNG ), ( BOIL ), ( KOLD ), ( FCG ), ( UNL ), ( HNU:CA ) Click here to read the full EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. More on Natural Gas Futures, United States Natural Gas Fund LP ETF, etc. FCG: Structural Improvements Deliver Cash Flow, Not Just High Oil Prices Commodities: Oil Climbs On Trump Escalation Threat Weather Drops U.S. January Oil Production Glencore, Taiwan refiner book tankers to load Middle East oil after ceasefire: report Markets extend gains while prediction markets signal a cautious path for Hormuz traffic
Retail investors used Wednesday's big market rebound as an opportunity to cut risk rather than chase gains, raising questions about the durability of a rally that was tied to optimism over President Donald Trump's Iran ceasefire. Individual investors were heavy net sellers of exchange-traded funds during the morning rally Wednesday, with intraday ETF outflows hitting their largest levels in a year...
Retail investors used Wednesday's big market rebound as an opportunity to cut risk rather than chase gains, raising questions about the durability of a rally that was tied to optimism over President Donald Trump's Iran ceasefire. Individual investors were heavy net sellers of exchange-traded funds during the morning rally Wednesday, with intraday ETF outflows hitting their largest levels in a year, including cuts to broad-market exposure, a sharp break from mom-and-pop investors' usual dip-buying behavior, according to fund flows tracked by JPMorgan. By 1 p.m., positioning briefly stabilized as investors pared back selling and selectively bought individual stocks, but by the close they had reduced ETF holdings to the weakest level in more than 10 months, while single-stock flows remained negative across the board, the data showed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ripped more than 1,300 points higher Wednesday, up 2.9%, after Trump suspended attacks on Iran for two weeks, the benchmark's best day since April 2025. The S & P 500 popped 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.8%. "Today's relief rally brings confirmation that the shift in retail behavior that we have observed over the past month is persisting: retail moved from 'buying the dip' (e.g. this time last year), to now skipping the dips, selling into rallies, and positioning more defensively," JPMorgan said in a note to clients. For much of the Trump era, retail traders have been an unusually influential force in equity markets, often aggressively stepping in during selloffs and helping fuel sharp rebounds. That dynamic now appears to be fading, with retail investors increasingly hesitant to add exposure, even during improving market conditions. Within single stocks, retail flows were negative across nearly all sectors Wednesday, JPMorgan said. Energy and industrial names led the selling, with heavy outflows from Exxon Mobil , Chevron and Occidental Petroleum . One of the few areas of relative resilience was m...
MF3d/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis The skeptics who dismiss Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSM ) are missing the forest for the trees. Since my last coverage , TSM is up 20% and the jump in CapEx expenditure may look daunting at first sight, but in my opinion, it represents an aggressive land grab in the most vital layer of the technology stack. The demand for AI chips is...
MF3d/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis The skeptics who dismiss Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( TSM ) are missing the forest for the trees. Since my last coverage , TSM is up 20% and the jump in CapEx expenditure may look daunting at first sight, but in my opinion, it represents an aggressive land grab in the most vital layer of the technology stack. The demand for AI chips is not just healthy, it’s locked-in. A slightly more positive ramp-up of N2 would make the margin pressures ease faster than anticipated. However, there is also a subtle shift in the revenue stream as a result of enhanced advanced packaging and higher utilization rates. I don’t see a company defending margins, I see one with a real shot at exceeding them through disciplined execution. Data by YCharts Q1 Setup: AI Demand and Node Leadership Power Margins Beyond Expectations I see that TSMC forecasts Q1-FY26 topline between $34.6 billion-$35.8 billion and this is a 4% QoQ and 38% YoY increase at the midpoint. With that, TSMC's management projects gross margins between 63%-65% going up by 1.7%-points from Q4-FY25 and operating margins may land between 54%-56%. A FX assumption of TWD31.6/$1 is under these metrics, the FX remained a bit there during Q1. So, I think that higher capacity utilization rates and productivity gains may outpace margin dilution from overseas fab ramps. Data by YCharts As a result, this may be elevating the bottomline in the short-term. Why? The main catalyst supporting TSMC's forward growth trend is the N2 tech ramp alongside advanced packaging execution. Forward CapEx boosted to a $52 billion-$56 billion range for FY26. In this CapEx, TSMC allocates 70% to 80% of this budget to advanced process techs and 10% to 20% to advanced packaging, testing, and mask making. Further, I believe the AI infra capital outlays may continue to push product demand as TSMC holds ~99% of the wafer fabrication share for top AI server compute ASIC shipments. Stable growth in A...
The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is a real diplomatic breakthrough. It has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a relief rally in global markets and eased the immediate fear of a spiralling energy shock. But its strategic significance lies less in the relief it has produced than in the uncertainty it leaves behind. The truce is time-limited, tied to negotiations and bu...
The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is a real diplomatic breakthrough. It has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a relief rally in global markets and eased the immediate fear of a spiralling energy shock. But its strategic significance lies less in the relief it has produced than in the uncertainty it leaves behind. The truce is time-limited, tied to negotiations and built around temporary safe passage rather than a settled regional order. The ceasefire terms and...
sasha85ru/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Cardinal Energy ( CJ:CA ) ( CRLFF ) is a relatively small oil and gas producer in Canada with an anticipated output of approximately 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. I previously covered the company with a "Buy" rating in March 2025. At $60 oil, all sustaining capital expenditures as well as the rather generous dividend remain fully covered. ...
sasha85ru/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Cardinal Energy ( CJ:CA ) ( CRLFF ) is a relatively small oil and gas producer in Canada with an anticipated output of approximately 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. I previously covered the company with a "Buy" rating in March 2025. At $60 oil, all sustaining capital expenditures as well as the rather generous dividend remain fully covered. Moreover, the current high oil price will go a long way to help fund the additional growth investments, which should see the total production rate increase by another 20% by the end of next year. Data by YCharts What can we expect in 2026? It doesn't make a lot of sense to look back at 2025 given the low realized oil prices, and I'm of course mainly focusing on the company's anticipated performance in 2026. Cardinal expects to produce an average of 25,000-25,500 boe/day now that the new Reford SAGD facility is up and running. The guidance was set before the oil price started to move, and the company used US$60/barrel in its base case scenario to forecast an AFF of just over C$200 million . Fortunately, it also provided a sensitivity analysis, and the image below shows how fast the operating cash flow, adjusted funds flow, and free cash flow can increase when the oil price moves up. Cardinal Energy Investor Relations As you can see in the image above, the dividend remains fully covered as long as the oil price remains above $60/barrel on a WTI basis. If we were to, for instance, apply a flat oil price of approximately $75 per barrel, the adjusted operating cash flow would come in at approximately 300 million Canadian dollars, while we know the sustaining CapEx is just 85 million CAD. This indicates the underlying free cash flow at a $75 oil price would be approximately C$1.3-1.35 per share (including the impact of the increased share count after the recent capital raise). And while the capital budget was initially put at 75 million CAD plus an additional 10 million CAD in As...
Getty Images Setting The Stage Apple Inc. ( AAPL ) is expected to announce its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 30, 2026. Its fiscal Q1 was its strongest quarter with a record revenue of $143.8 billion, up from $102.466 billion in fiscal Q4 ’2025 , marking a 15.65% YoY growth. EPS came in at $2.84 beating the consensus estimate by almost 6%. To me, these impressive results set a high expectation fo...
Getty Images Setting The Stage Apple Inc. ( AAPL ) is expected to announce its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 30, 2026. Its fiscal Q1 was its strongest quarter with a record revenue of $143.8 billion, up from $102.466 billion in fiscal Q4 ’2025 , marking a 15.65% YoY growth. EPS came in at $2.84 beating the consensus estimate by almost 6%. To me, these impressive results set a high expectation for the coming quarters, but the question here is whether Q2 ’26 will match this performance. Well, the answer to this question depends on how the company manages uncertainties such as the complex supply chain from current geopolitical tensions and soaring demand for AI chips. But I think the second quarter still has a high potential of maintaining the Q1 ’25 tempo, especially given the soaring demand for iPhones in China and India. Important to note, between January and early March, the company recorded a 23% spike in iPhone sales which supports my bullish take. Looking at the outlook, the management guided a revenue growth of roughly 13%-16% YoY which translates to a revenue of about $107.8 billion to $110.7 billion. Comparing this to the Q2 2025 which posted a revenue pf $95.4 billion, up by approximately 5% YoY, I can see that the management expects a stronger Q2 2026. The management guidance is not far from the consensus estimates of $109.27 billion (14.58% YoY growth), which speaks to a shared optimism. Apple Remains The Engine, But Watch Supply iPhone remains an important revenue driver registering a revenue of $85.27 billion in Q1 significantly above analysts' expectations of $78.65 billion. As we head into Q2, I expect this to be a core revenue driver given the rising demand for iPhone. Demandsage To add perspective here, iPhone usage has grown by 80% since 2014 when the number of users was below 72.3 million. Despite this apparent solid catalyst, one headwind reigns and that is a constrained iPhone supply specifically tied to advanced 3-nanometer SoC manufacturing. ...
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) stock got a fresh vote of confidence on Thursday when Barclays raised its rating to Overweight, signaling that the firm sees meaningful runway ahead for one of the semiconductor sector’s most AI-exposed names. The upgrade lands as Marvell shares trade near $119, up 34.78% year-to-date. For investors tracking the AI infrastructure buildout, ... Barclays Just Raised ...
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) stock got a fresh vote of confidence on Thursday when Barclays raised its rating to Overweight, signaling that the firm sees meaningful runway ahead for one of the semiconductor sector’s most AI-exposed names. The upgrade lands as Marvell shares trade near $119, up 34.78% year-to-date. For investors tracking the AI infrastructure buildout, ... Barclays Just Raised Marvell to Overweight. Here’s Why the AI Chip Race Is Far From Over