mohd izzuan/iStock via Getty Images Sandisk ( SNDK ) is clearly in an extraordinary pricing-led acceleration phase with rapidly expanding margins, as demand stays strong and supply remains constrained. However, with volume gains appearing only incremental in the near future, the only road ahead to continued earnings growth is through further pricing acceleration beyond Q3 FY2026. There is less dou...
mohd izzuan/iStock via Getty Images Sandisk ( SNDK ) is clearly in an extraordinary pricing-led acceleration phase with rapidly expanding margins, as demand stays strong and supply remains constrained. However, with volume gains appearing only incremental in the near future, the only road ahead to continued earnings growth is through further pricing acceleration beyond Q3 FY2026. There is less doubt now that Q3 FY2026 numbers will come out great and support the upward trajectory in terms of operational numbers. But the forward regime is more likely to be near the steepest part of the pricing curve, making further price increases likely incremental at best for the next 3-4 quarters - not a continuation of the vertical lift in prices we have seen in the past couple of quarters and likely in Q3 (already guided, implied and digested). Sandisk is moving toward smoother multi-year contract structures with customers, which support a more visible, predictable price regime ahead - but less likely to allow for near vertical rises ahead. That plateau base case is well protected from major declines though, by structural factors today like hyperscaler capex, supply discipline and long terms contracts. So, we are not likely talking about a peak followed by a deep trough. But, if EBITDA plateaus beyond Q3 as I expect, or even grows modestly, with more linear gains on the pricing curve (a harder ask from here) alone, the multiple may start digesting the EBITDA strength, leaving little room for the shares to grow significantly further. The overall risk reward is not overwhelmingly signaling a Buy at these levels. The duration of the cycle is strengthened, but cyclicality is not eliminated - giving valuations reasons to cool and allow earnings to grow into them. That is a Hold call for Sandisk today - chasing here is not as obvious as the super strong fundamental trajectory indicates. Valuation Upside Constrained At ~13.5x EV to forward EBITDA, Sandisk's valuations are near peak terr...
Gulf states are looking for clarity on the US-Iran ceasefire as attacks continue across the region. Bloomberg's Joumanna Bercetche reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
Gulf states are looking for clarity on the US-Iran ceasefire as attacks continue across the region. Bloomberg's Joumanna Bercetche reports. (Source: Bloomberg)