Spencer Platt/Getty Images News Millions of dollars of trades on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that flowed into the predictions market Polymarket have raised two main questions about the nascent platforms. Some well-timed trades by newly created anonymous accounts, paying off hundreds of thousands of dollars so far, raise the suspicion of insider trading. Another issue is how disputes over...
Spencer Platt/Getty Images News Millions of dollars of trades on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that flowed into the predictions market Polymarket have raised two main questions about the nascent platforms. Some well-timed trades by newly created anonymous accounts, paying off hundreds of thousands of dollars so far, raise the suspicion of insider trading. Another issue is how disputes over the definitions of specific events are resolved. More than $170M of trades flowed through Polymarket ( POLYMARKET ) that bet on a ceasefire between the two countries, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain pointed to three recently created accounts that received more than $480K in profits by betting on a ceasefire by April 7 and selling the positions at high prices, the news report said. When it's a yes/no event contract, how an event is defined is crucial. Some payoffs, though, are frozen in a dispute over whether the news on Tuesday night constitutes a ceasefire. For example, some traders said the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is actually a "temporary tactical stand-down," which wouldn't qualify under Polymarket's rules. Others say that the Iranian foreign minister's statement that Iran will halt “defensive operations” doesn't rule out offensive actions. Under the Polymarket procedures for resolving event disputes, anyone can propose how it should be resolved by posting a small amount of collateral. Other users can dispute the outcome. The matter then goes to a vote among holders of a crypto token called UMA. Traders debate the evidence in a public Discord chatroom, Bloomberg said. Uncovering insider trading is extremely difficult on a platform that allows anonymous trading. The platform doesn't conduct identity checks, but activity is visible on Polymarket's ( POLYMARKET ) website and in blockchain transactions. However, traders can use multiple accounts, making it challenging to discern how much any one trader has lost or profited....
hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Since I last wrote about Eli Lilly and Company ( LLY ) in February, its price is down by 12% despite significant upside to the stock. There are certainly good reasons for the dip, but recent developments indicate that LLY is due an uptick now. Here, I first take a quick look at why the stock has been sluggish recently, followed by three key reasons why it...
hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Since I last wrote about Eli Lilly and Company ( LLY ) in February, its price is down by 12% despite significant upside to the stock. There are certainly good reasons for the dip, but recent developments indicate that LLY is due an uptick now. Here, I first take a quick look at why the stock has been sluggish recently, followed by three key reasons why it can rise from here on. Why is the Eli Lilly stock falling? While it's tempting to chalk LLY's decline up to market weakness evident since the start of the US-Iran war, that's just a contributing factor. The stock started falling in early February itself (see chart below), following the release of the company's full year 2025 results. While investors were initially happy with the results, with 10% gains seen on the day of their release, the joy was short-lived. There were indeed concerns in the earnings release, and even otherwise. Their recap is as below: Impact of Zepbound price drop: Even as it remained exceptionally strong, Zepbound, the company's blockbuster weight loss treatment saw a revenue growth pullback in Q4 2025 to 123% compared to the full year 2025 growth of 175%, following a cut in its price. Growth cool-off forecast: The company's revenue growth forecast for 2026 at 25%, while also still strong, was a significant drop from the 43% increase seen in 2025. Acquisition drag: Eli Lilly's purchase of inflammation treatments developer Ventyx Biosciences ( VTYX ) in January, risked the company's earnings outlook even though it hadn't mentioned as much in the results. My estimates yielded a potential drag of $1.42 this year, even as the stock still continued to look attractive. Price Chart, YTD (Source: Seeking Alpha) 3 Positives for LLY However, recent developments support LLY's rise across investment time horizons. With Eli Lilly's margins and revenue growth are both at risk from price cuts to its products and rising competition in the weight loss market, the comp...
The underlying fundamentals of the economy are in a good place, though it is early to make judgments on that, according to San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO Mary Daly. Daly was speaking at a moderated conversation about the economy, monetary policy, and more at an event hosted by the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce. "W hat most people want to know is whether they can trust t...
The underlying fundamentals of the economy are in a good place, though it is early to make judgments on that, according to San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO Mary Daly. Daly was speaking at a moderated conversation about the economy, monetary policy, and more at an event hosted by the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce. "W hat most people want to know is whether they can trust the Federal Reserve," said the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's alternate voting member. " Trust starts with representation and accountability ," she said. "To ensure accountability, Congress set the Fed's mission and goals. It also kept the right to regularly review the Fed's performance," she noted. "Although the system has evolved over time, these principles remain: regionalism, independence, and accountability." She highlighted the Fed's core responsibilities: managing payments, regulating and supervising banks, and conducting monetary policy. "So, what does our future hold?" asked the FOMC member. "As a longtime public servant, I know that public institutions are pillars of democracy. But to remain strong, they must evolve—ready to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities." " The Federal Reserve is no exception," she said. Developing... Check back for updates. More on U.S. Economy Mortgage demand down overall, but purchase applications are gaining traction The Fed’s hands are tied – Renaissance Macro Research’s Neil Dutta
The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of ...
The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom lines. The puzzling question, however, is why Apple isn’t following suit. Or could they be taking a different approach to winning the AI arms race? Apple Avoids The AI Spending Boom Apple is one of the world’s most profitable companies. Over the last four quarters, they reported over $400 billion in annual revenue and nearly $100 billion of free cash flow. Furthermore, the company holds $65 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $77 billion in marketable securities. The bottom line is that Apple can easily self-fund AI innovation on a massive scale, as its competitors are doing. Yet it hasn’t. Rather than mimicking its peers, Apple appears content to let the AI landscape mature before committing significant capital. Restraint may seem like complacency or even negligence. However, Apple has a long and extremely successful history of deploying capital at the right time; when the profit outlook is clear, the technology is established, and the customer value proposition is well-defined. This approach may be frustrating for Apple shareholders in the short term, but history and the chart below, comparing Apple to the S&P 500, suggest it has served them extremely well. Apple’s Historical Playbook Apple has rarely been first to introduce a new product. It was not the first personal computer company, the first smartphone maker, or the first to launch wireless earbuds, smartwatches, or VR headsets. In nearly every case, Apple waited while other companies experimented and helped define the product and the market. Apple waited to understand what...
SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images Foreign consumer staples stocks have delivered strong international equity returns in 2026, with several names posting gains that significantly outpace both their domestic U.S. peers and the broader global market. The outperformance is geographically concentrated, with Brazilian companies in particular standing out, three of the ten names on this list are Brazil...
SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images Foreign consumer staples stocks have delivered strong international equity returns in 2026, with several names posting gains that significantly outpace both their domestic U.S. peers and the broader global market. The outperformance is geographically concentrated, with Brazilian companies in particular standing out, three of the ten names on this list are Brazilian, reflecting a combination of commodity strength, currency tailwinds, and improving domestic fundamentals. The following list ranks the top 10 foreign consumer staples stocks by year-to-date performance, drawing from markets across South America, Japan, Singapore, China, Turkey, and Hong Kong, spanning sub-sectors including agricultural products, personal care, packaged foods, brewing, and protein processing The list is topped by Adecoagro S.A. ( AGRO ), with an impressive YTD performance of 89.53%. Shiseido Company, Limited ( SSDOY ) and Ajinomoto Co., Inc. ( AJNMY ) follow as the next highest performers with gains of 48.36% and 37.60%, respectively. Sendas Distribuidora S.A. ( ASAIY ) and Wilmar International Limited ( WLMIY ) round out the top five with YTD performances of 28.93% and 28.26%. Other notable performers include WH Group Limited ( WHGLY ) and Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi ( AEBZY ), both posting gains above 22%. Here is the list: Adecoagro S.A. ( AGRO ), YTD perf: 89.53% Shiseido Company, Limited ( SSDOY ), YTD perf: 48.36% Ajinomoto Co., Inc. ( AJNMY ), YTD perf: 37.60% Sendas Distribuidora S.A. ( ASAIY ), YTD perf: 28.93% Wilmar International Limited ( WLMIY ), YTD perf: 28.26% WH Group Limited ( WHGLY ), YTD perf: 23.19% Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi ( AEBZY ), YTD perf: 22.19% JBS N.V. ( JBS ), YTD perf: 21.71% China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited ( CIADY ), YTD perf: 20.54% Ambev S.A. ( ABEV ), YTD perf: 20.24% More on iShares Global Consumer Staples ETF KXI: Consumer Staples Dashboard For March Roth Capi...
Wako Megumi/iStock via Getty Images Apple Inc. ( AAPL ) shares fell as much as 5% on Tuesday after a scathing report from Nikkei Asia that pointed to setbacks in the engineering test phase for the long-awaited foldable iPhone, which could result in a pushback of production and shipment schedules. The stock is down over 6% YTD, not making it the odd one out for big tech this year, with the S&P 500 ...
Wako Megumi/iStock via Getty Images Apple Inc. ( AAPL ) shares fell as much as 5% on Tuesday after a scathing report from Nikkei Asia that pointed to setbacks in the engineering test phase for the long-awaited foldable iPhone, which could result in a pushback of production and shipment schedules. The stock is down over 6% YTD, not making it the odd one out for big tech this year, with the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) down over 3% and the rest of the Mag7 in the red. Apple is moving the needle after staying static for far too long in a fast-paced smartphone market, and what we’re seeing are growing pains that we expect will pay off, supporting a long position in the stock. YCharts Will the Foldable phone happen? Markets a year ago may have shrugged off a headline like the one we saw on Tuesday, but this year is different. That’s thanks to none other than Apple itself, which hitched its bandwagon to the foldable phone by staggering the iPhone launch schedule starting with the iPhone 18 cycle. For the first time in over a decade, Apple decided to abandon the usual fall launch lineup and split it into two: introducing its premium lineup (including iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone) in the fall, then following that with the standard release in Spring 2027. The scheduled change is indicative of more than just a timing switch-up; it also suggests that Apple is doing more. By the end of 2026, we could be looking at more than six distinct iPhone models, rather than the usual four we’ve gotten annually since 2020. The whole Apple revival strategy started last year with the introduction of the iPhone Air, and the foldable phone would be the next step. Management is trying to stretch out the buying window for its products without getting its models caught in internal competition. Tuesday’s news, however, put the new plan in flux. The report highlights engineering development issues with the foldable phone, and the new expectation is that the first shipments will be del...
On Tuesday, Elon Musk amended his lawsuit that accuses OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, of abandoning its mission, clarifying that any ill-gotten gains recovered should be returned to the AI firm's charitable nonprofit arm, not to Musk. Musk "is not seeking a single dollar for himself," according to his lawyer, Marc Toberoff. Toberoff told The Wall Street Journal that the new remedies that Musk is ...
On Tuesday, Elon Musk amended his lawsuit that accuses OpenAI and its CEO, Sam Altman, of abandoning its mission, clarifying that any ill-gotten gains recovered should be returned to the AI firm's charitable nonprofit arm, not to Musk. Musk "is not seeking a single dollar for himself," according to his lawyer, Marc Toberoff. Toberoff told The Wall Street Journal that the new remedies that Musk is seeking strip away distracting claims from OpenAI that the lawsuit is intended to harass and harm the AI firm that Musk helped co-found but today is one of his biggest rivals. Read full article Comments
Over the last 7 days, the United States market has risen by 1.2%, contributing to a remarkable 33% increase over the past year, with earnings forecasted to grow by 16% annually. In this thriving environment, growth stocks with high insider ownership often signal strong confidence from those closest to the company, making them worth considering for their potential alignment with current market tren...
Over the last 7 days, the United States market has risen by 1.2%, contributing to a remarkable 33% increase over the past year, with earnings forecasted to grow by 16% annually. In this thriving environment, growth stocks with high insider ownership often signal strong confidence from those closest to the company, making them worth considering for their potential alignment with current market trends.
Record high set on Monday and raised on Tuesday, with 14.4GW of electricity generated in sunny spring weather Britain’s sunny spring weather powered the grid to new solar energy records on two consecutive days this week. Solar farms in England, Wales and Scotland generated 14.1 GW of low-carbon electricity at lunchtime on Monday, surpassing the previous high of 14GW in July last year. Continue rea...
Record high set on Monday and raised on Tuesday, with 14.4GW of electricity generated in sunny spring weather Britain’s sunny spring weather powered the grid to new solar energy records on two consecutive days this week. Solar farms in England, Wales and Scotland generated 14.1 GW of low-carbon electricity at lunchtime on Monday, surpassing the previous high of 14GW in July last year. Continue reading...
New York Times report claims London-born Adam Back is creator of the cryptocurrency after comparing writings A British computer scientist has insisted he is not the elusive developer of bitcoin, after a report claimed to unmask him as its creator. A story in the New York Times details a years-long effort to unmask Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious author of the bitcoin white paper which laid the th...
New York Times report claims London-born Adam Back is creator of the cryptocurrency after comparing writings A British computer scientist has insisted he is not the elusive developer of bitcoin, after a report claimed to unmask him as its creator. A story in the New York Times details a years-long effort to unmask Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious author of the bitcoin white paper which laid the theoretical foundations for modern digital currencies. Continue reading...
Paraguayan President Santiago Peña tapped economist Oscar Lovera as finance minister, a week after his long-serving predecessor resigned over a contentious civil-servant pension reform. Lovera will have the “mission of improving the efficiency of public spending and supporting growth, hand in hand with the private sector, for the benefit of all Paraguayans” Peña said Wednesday in an X post . “I wa...
Paraguayan President Santiago Peña tapped economist Oscar Lovera as finance minister, a week after his long-serving predecessor resigned over a contentious civil-servant pension reform. Lovera will have the “mission of improving the efficiency of public spending and supporting growth, hand in hand with the private sector, for the benefit of all Paraguayans” Peña said Wednesday in an X post . “I want an agile state that ensures the conditions for the country to continue developing.” The economist, who already held a senior position at the finance ministry, replaces Juan José Galeano , who took charge as interim minister after Carlos Fernández left the post on March 31. The previous month, Peña had demanded better results from his cabinet as his administration heads into the second half of its five-year term. Since taking office in August 2023, Peña secured congressional approval for a series of economic reforms, including a pension regulator and improvements to tax collection. However, lawmakers may have limited appetite for further measures that could anger voters ahead of October’s municipal elections, where city halls in key cities such as the capital Asunción and Ciudad del Este are in play, and presidential primaries in 2027. Fernández, who led Peña’s economic team since the start of the administration, had sparred with ruling Colorado Party lawmakers over a heavily watered-down version of the government’s pension reform bill, which passed last month. He also drew criticism after announcing austerity measures aimed at meeting the government’s 1.5% fiscal deficit target amid falling tax revenue. Lovera inherits not only a delicate fiscal situation, but also payment negotiations with pharmaceutical and construction companies, which local media say are owed more than $1.1 billion by the government. Paraguay, a landlocked country of 6.1 million people, is one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America. After expanding 6.6% in 2025, the central bank sees growt...
Sean Pavone CBRE Equity Research boosted Q1 and full-year estimates on the Macau casino sector after the strong start to the year. Notably, Macau gross gaming revenue was up 14.2% year over year in Q1. Analyst John DeCree said that despite strong fundamentals, the sector remains out of favor due to a lack of conviction in the sustainability of growth, as well as margin concerns due to opex inflati...
Sean Pavone CBRE Equity Research boosted Q1 and full-year estimates on the Macau casino sector after the strong start to the year. Notably, Macau gross gaming revenue was up 14.2% year over year in Q1. Analyst John DeCree said that despite strong fundamentals, the sector remains out of favor due to a lack of conviction in the sustainability of growth, as well as margin concerns due to opex inflation and the elevated competitive environment. DeCree noted that consensus estimates now account for GGR to decelerate to +3.5% for the remainder of the year. "We believe this deceleration is unlikely. China is targeting 4.5%-5.0% GDP growth, and we expect Macau GGR to grow faster than GDP as the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus," wrote DeCree. Within the sector, the firm prefers Melco Resorts & Entertainment ( MLCO ). The casino stock is seen as oversold after disappointing Q4 results that showed higher-than-expected opex around key events, the conclusion of the strategic review in Manila that resulted in no action, and the announcement of higher trademark fees payable by City of Dreams Macau beginning in FY26. However, DeCree and his team remain confident the company will maintain its focus on profitable growth and see an opportunity for MLCO shares to rerate higher as deleveraging accelerates this year. CBRE maintained its Buy rating on MLCO and price target of $10. More on Melco Resorts & Entertainment Melco Resorts: Macau Growth Creates Upside (Rating Upgrade) Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Macau gaming revenue tops estimates for March Macau gaming revenue looks solid in March - Jefferies
May WTI crude oil (CLK26 ) today is down -17.10 (-15.14%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26 ) is down -0.3070 (-9.29%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are falling sharply today, with crude sliding to a 1.5-week low and gasoline falling to a 2-week low. Crude prices plunged today after the...
May WTI crude oil (CLK26 ) today is down -17.10 (-15.14%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26 ) is down -0.3070 (-9.29%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are falling sharply today, with crude sliding to a 1.5-week low and gasoline falling to a 2-week low. Crude prices plunged today after the...
A voter casts their ballot inside the new Chicago Board of Elections 'Super Site' located at 175 N. State Street during the Illinois Primary Election in the Loop on March 17, 2026, as Illinois holds its General Primary Election, where registered party members select nominees for major races including U.S. Senate, in, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, U.S. House seats, stat...
A voter casts their ballot inside the new Chicago Board of Elections 'Super Site' located at 175 N. State Street during the Illinois Primary Election in the Loop on March 17, 2026, as Illinois holds its General Primary Election, where registered party members select nominees for major races including U.S. Senate, in, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, U.S. House seats, state legislature, Cook County offices, and various judicial positions ahead of the November 3 general election. Jacek Boczarski | Anadolu | Getty Images Democrats romped to a 20-point victory in a race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, while Republicans won a special election for a House seat in Georgia by a far less comfortable margin than in 2024. The pair of Tuesday elections underscore strong headwinds for President Donald Trump and his Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Washington and loosen Trump's grip on power. Democratic-backed Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor won a 10-year term on Wisconsin's Supreme Court, defeating conservative Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar by roughly 20 points, according to the Associated Press tally. The race was far more subdued than last year's Supreme Court contest in Wisconsin, which turned into the most expensive state supreme court race in history after Tesla owner Elon Musk injected huge sums of money behind the Republican-backed conservative candidate, who lost. Read more CNBC politics coverage Trump praises Hungary PM Viktor Orbán after Vance calls him at Budapest rally Bill Gates interview about Jeffrey Epstein by House Oversight set for June 10 House Democrats call on federal regulator to crack down on offshore prediction market war bets Taylor's 20-point margin of victory is nearly double that of Justice Susan Crawford in 2025, who defeated Musk-backed Brad Schimel by about 10 points. The win cements a 5-2 majority for liberals on the Wisconsin high court. Meanwhile in Georgi...