A Pause To Negotiate A Deal? Some Caveats... Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, Basically we wound up at the better end of our “base case” in yesterday’s Spaghetti Western , and you could argue we made it all the way into our best case of “ceasefire” (I’m reluctant to label it that, as you will see, but it is touching on that end). I do think we are far from a “real deal” . In any cas...
A Pause To Negotiate A Deal? Some Caveats... Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, Basically we wound up at the better end of our “base case” in yesterday’s Spaghetti Western , and you could argue we made it all the way into our best case of “ceasefire” (I’m reluctant to label it that, as you will see, but it is touching on that end). I do think we are far from a “real deal” . In any case, markets are responding according as both sides send people to Pakistan to negotiate a deal. Stocks are up strongly across the globe, with Europe and Asia leading the way (they were hit hardest by the conflict). Bonds too are having an incredibly strong day (once again led by Europe). Crude oil is falling like a rock , as shipping is potentially set to resume. One reason stocks didn’t seem to respond much last week to rising spot oil prices was because later month contracts hadn’t risen much. For now, the August WTI contract is basically where we were on March 23rd, the Monday that began the “deal is on the way” theater , which will temper how much further the stock market can rally. Any “Ceasefire” Should Benefit the U.S. the Most While we don’t know the specific status of each country, it seems fair to argue that the U.S. can do more to bolster its position – politically and military , than Iran can during a pause. A win for the U.S. and markets. It will be interesting to see what develops on the “coalition” side of the equation. There has been reporting/wild speculation (difficult to tell the difference sometimes) that China was involved in bringing Iran to the deal. That could be interesting if true, and if China really wants to play a role. Some “Caveats” I suspect that how markets and voters respond, will influence what comes next. Two things show up as “immediate” question marks around the negotiations: The U.S. acceptance is “ subject to ” Iran opening the Strait. Iran has agreed to control shipping through the Strait. Both sides are “vague” enough that this could...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images The United States' top export to China is soybeans. That's why the news the U.S. and China had struck a trade deal at the end of October 2025 was so exciting, because it came with a commitment from China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S.-grown soybeans. China's soybean buyers completed their purchases before the end of 2025, the bulk of which were expor...
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images The United States' top export to China is soybeans. That's why the news the U.S. and China had struck a trade deal at the end of October 2025 was so exciting, because it came with a commitment from China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S.-grown soybeans. China's soybean buyers completed their purchases before the end of 2025, the bulk of which were exported in December 2025 and January 2026. But instead of giving a large boost to trade between the two nations, that increase in exports only delivered a small increase over the November 2025 low, with the boost offset by the falling level of trade of other goods. In February 2026, the boost from the negotiated soybean sales to China ended, and the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China fell to $26.9 billion. That level falls below the 2020 coronavirus pandemic low for this data series. The following chart shows that negative data trend for the monthly value of trade between the U.S. and China. We had anticipated a larger boost to that overall trade from China's soybean purchases from the U.S., but that impact has proven to be disappointing. It's clear the level of trade won't return to its pre-2025 tariff war levels anytime soon. The trailing twelve-month average of that trade is $18.8 billion below our counterfactual projection of what the level of trade between the U.S. and China would look like in the absence of the trade war between them in February 2026. That brings the decline in the trailing twelve-month average of the direct trade between the U.S. and China to a cumulative loss of $108.5 billion in the value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, reports indicate China is turning to alternatives to reduce its need to import large quantities of soybeans, which, if successful, will negatively impact soybean farmers in both the U.S. and Brazil, the largest exporters of soybeans to China: At the edge of one of the many pig farms sp...
Jonathan Kitchen The “Magnificent 7,” which includes Nvidia ( NVDA ), Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Tesla ( TSLA ), Meta ( META ), Alphabet ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ), and Microsoft ( MSFT ), as well as all tech stocks, are likely to see a “risk on” environment from the Iran ceasefire, Wedbush said. “With the Iran ceasefire news overnight this is a major positive development for overall markets with a ...
Jonathan Kitchen The “Magnificent 7,” which includes Nvidia ( NVDA ), Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Tesla ( TSLA ), Meta ( META ), Alphabet ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ), and Microsoft ( MSFT ), as well as all tech stocks, are likely to see a “risk on” environment from the Iran ceasefire, Wedbush said. “With the Iran ceasefire news overnight this is a major positive development for overall markets with a risk-on appetite now set to return to the market in our view,” analysts at the firm wrote in a note to clients. “We continue to strongly believe the nervous geopolitical backdrop over the past few months has created an oversold tech environment for Mag 7, software names, and many tech winners in the AI Revolution.” Delving deeper, the analysts said the sell-off in software stocks is “overblown,” as many companies are integrating artificial intelligence across their tech stacks, not replacing products and services. “We also note that investors are concerned that Anthropic/OpenAI and other AI incumbents will change their mission to become the next step of enterprise software infrastructure, but after speaking with many CIOs across the industry over the past few weeks, this is more of a major stretch given the core focus on generating revenue will be around partnering around AI workflows. We continue to believe the bottoming in the software trade is likely in the rear-view mirror. In our view: Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow stand out as very disconnected selloffs relative to the AI monetization opportunities over the coming years.” More on the Magnificent 7 Microsoft: The Market Is Forcing Me To Buy This Bargain (Rating Upgrade) Why Alphabet's Growth Story Is Being Misread Tesla Q1 2026 Deliveries Strengthen The Bearish Outlook Apple to use Samsung Display exclusively for foldable iPhone screens Apple in focus as Wedbush calls long lead times for Mac mini, Mac Studio a 'victory'
Prohibiting crypto firms from offering yield on stablecoins wouldn't provide a meaningful benefit for community banks, the Council of Economic Advisers said in a report released on Wednesday. The release comes as crypto firms and banks clash over whether legislation should ban the payment of yield on stablecoins to customers on crypto platforms. Banks say that stablecoin yield will cause their cus...
Prohibiting crypto firms from offering yield on stablecoins wouldn't provide a meaningful benefit for community banks, the Council of Economic Advisers said in a report released on Wednesday. The release comes as crypto firms and banks clash over whether legislation should ban the payment of yield on stablecoins to customers on crypto platforms. Banks say that stablecoin yield will cause their customers to pull deposits from banks to access higher yields on stablecoin rewards. Crypto firms say banning yield on stablecoins would quash financial innovation. The CEA report estimates that eliminating stablecoin yield would increase bank lending by $2.1B, which translates into a 0.02% increase in lending. The majority of any increase, ~76%, would go to large banks, while community banks would lend the remaining 24%, according to the CEA's calculations. The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, prohibits stablecoin issuers from offering any interest or yield to stablecoin holders, but it doesn't explicitly prohibit third parties, such as crypto platforms, from offering interest-bearing products. Some versions of the proposed CLARITY Act would close that loophole. Even if every worst-case assumption is factored in, the model only produces $531B in additional aggregate lending, or a 4.4% increase to bank loans as of Q4 2025, the CEA said. Under "those implausible conditions, community bank lending only rises by $129B, corresponding to an increase of 6.7%," the report said. "In short, a yield prohibition would do very little to protect bank lending, while forgoing the consumer benefits of competitive returns on stablecoin holdings," the CEA said . The CEA conclusions, though, contrast sharply with those of The Independent Community Bankers of America, an industry group. The ICBA estimates allowing the payment of interest on stablecoins would lead to $1.3T in potential lost deposits at community banks and an $850B decline in lending activity. That comes to about 27% of co...
Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY ) announced on Wednesday that it plans to acquire the equity interests and substantially all assets of F9 Brands, which owns and operates Cabinets To Go, Lumber Liquidators, Gracious Home/Thos. Baker, and Southwind Building Products. The letter of intent was signed with a headline purchase price of nearly $150M, comprised of $37M in cash and approximately 16M shares of BBB...
Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY ) announced on Wednesday that it plans to acquire the equity interests and substantially all assets of F9 Brands, which owns and operates Cabinets To Go, Lumber Liquidators, Gracious Home/Thos. Baker, and Southwind Building Products. The letter of intent was signed with a headline purchase price of nearly $150M, comprised of $37M in cash and approximately 16M shares of BBBY common stock at $7.00 per share, representing a transaction value of $107M at the current market price. The retailer said the transaction will represent an additional step in further building a national, fully integrated home services platform under Beyond Home Services. "We believe these assets, including Elfa and Closet Works, will expand the company’s ability to serve customers across the full lifecycle of homeownership, from design and product selection to installation and financing," updated Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY ). F9 Brands generated approximately $522M in net delivered sales in FY25 and has approximately $130M of inventory on hand. The company noted that $40M of financing from existing lenders will roll into the deal. Looking ahead, Beyond Home Services will combine category leading brands across cabinets, flooring, closets, and distribution with installation services, financing solutions, and a growing retail footprint, positioning Bed Bath & Beyond to participate in larger, higher frequency home projects with increased customer lifetime value. "With the anticipated addition of Lumber Liquidators and Cabinets To Go to Elfa and Closet Works, Beyond Home Services is established with the brands, the capabilities, and the team to serve the homeowner from concept to completion. Each brand owns a distinct category—modular storage systems, custom closets, flooring, cabinets and countertops, carpet and hard surface flooring distribution—and together with our installation services and field sales organization, we can take the homeowner through the full lifecycle of a r...
(RTTNews) - President Donald Trump announced two-week ceasefire with Iran, pending reopening of Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran has revealed its willingness to reopen Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
(RTTNews) - President Donald Trump announced two-week ceasefire with Iran, pending reopening of Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Iran has revealed its willingness to reopen Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
Blackline Safety ( BLN:CA ) said on Wednesday that Francisco Partners Management will acquire all of its issued and outstanding common shares for up to $9.50 per share, resulting in a deal value of $850M. The payout will comprise $9.00 per share in cash on closing plus a contingent value right of up to $0.50 per share. It represents a premium of ~34% to the closing price of the shares on April 7, ...
Blackline Safety ( BLN:CA ) said on Wednesday that Francisco Partners Management will acquire all of its issued and outstanding common shares for up to $9.50 per share, resulting in a deal value of $850M. The payout will comprise $9.00 per share in cash on closing plus a contingent value right of up to $0.50 per share. It represents a premium of ~34% to the closing price of the shares on April 7, 2026. BLKLF +1.99% after hours to $5.12. Source: Press Release More on Blackline Safety Blackline Safety Non-GAAP EPS of $0.02, revenue of $38.8M Historical earnings data for Blackline Safety Financial information for Blackline Safety
北京时间4月7日晚间，NASA发布了阿尔忒弥斯2号任务掠月的首批高清照片。 其中一张里，月球表面占满整个画面，环形山的纹理清晰到像航拍沙漠，而在月面弧线的尽头，一颗蓝色的地球正缓缓沉入黑暗中。 阿尔忒弥斯2号宇航员拍摄的月面和地球 | NASA 这是从6545公里外拍到的画面，那是猎户座飞船掠月飞行时距离月面最近的位置。 就在北京时间4月7日清晨，4名宇航员刚刚完成了人类半个多世纪以来的第一次载人...
北京时间4月7日晚间，NASA发布了阿尔忒弥斯2号任务掠月的首批高清照片。 其中一张里，月球表面占满整个画面，环形山的纹理清晰到像航拍沙漠，而在月面弧线的尽头，一颗蓝色的地球正缓缓沉入黑暗中。 阿尔忒弥斯2号宇航员拍摄的月面和地球 | NASA 这是从6545公里外拍到的画面，那是猎户座飞船掠月飞行时距离月面最近的位置。 就在北京时间4月7日清晨，4名宇航员刚刚完成了人类半个多世纪以来的第一次载人绕月飞行。 阿尔忒弥斯2号宇航员拍摄的“日食” | NASA 更罕见的是另一组照片：飞船在绕月飞行时拍到的日全食。月球完全遮住了太阳，连日冕也一并吞没，漆黑的天幕上只剩一个巨大的黑影。 阿尔忒弥斯2号宇航员戴着日食眼镜自拍 | NASA 在日食初始阶段，4名宇航员不得不戴上日食眼镜，和2024年那场日全食时地面上几百万人戴的一模一样。只不过这次，他们是在距地球40万公里以外的地方戴上的。 这些照片不是实时传回的。飞行途中，宇航员一直在用语音向休斯敦描述窗外的景象，但受限于深空通信带宽，高分辨率影像无法同步下行。 直到飞船与地面光学站建立起激光链路，这批画面才终于抵达地球。 阿尔忒弥斯2号宇航员掠月时拍摄的月面 | NASA 人类并非第一次在月球附近拍到地球。1968年，阿波罗8号的宇航员威廉·安德斯拍下了那张著名的“地球升起”，成为人类历史上传播最广的照片之一。 但阿尔忒弥斯II号这次传回的，是迄今为止分辨率最高的同类影像。58年过去了，人类终于带着更好的相机回到了那个位置。 阿波罗8号的“地球升起”（上）和阿尔忒弥斯2号的“地球落下”（下） | NASA 而相机依然不够。 飞行员维克托·格洛弗说，他们拍了很多照片，但没有一张能还原他们真正看到的东西。 他在通信中对地面说：我们看到的景象，相机根本捕捉不到。月球表面被地球反射的光照亮，你能看到月面的大部分轮廓，那种感觉完全是科幻级别的，看起来不像真的。 太阳被月球遮挡期间，月面并非一片黑暗 | NASA 这次任务并不登月，4名宇航员绕飞半圈测试飞船系统，随后便踏上归途。猎户座飞船预计北京时间本周六清晨，在美国加利福尼亚海岸外溅落。 阿尔忒弥斯2号在飞往月球的途中拍摄的地球，注意最后这张，拍的是地球黑夜的那一面，照亮地面的是月光| NASA 50多年前，阿波罗17号宇航员尤金·塞尔南最后一次离开月球时，没人想到再次载人飞往月球...