Initial Jobless Claims Refuse To Signal Labor Market Stress Following the impressive payrolls data (revisions aside), the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 227k last week (down from 232k - which was a notable jump)... Pennsylvania and Missouri saw the biggest declines in initial claims while Texas and Virginia saw the largest rise... Which is odd because th...
Initial Jobless Claims Refuse To Signal Labor Market Stress Following the impressive payrolls data (revisions aside), the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 227k last week (down from 232k - which was a notable jump)... Pennsylvania and Missouri saw the biggest declines in initial claims while Texas and Virginia saw the largest rise... Which is odd because the week before, Pennsylvania saw the largest increase in jobless claims...? Continuing jobless claims ticked up from their lowest since May 2024... Finally, WTF is going on in the labor market - Payrolls beat (but revisions were ugly), JOLTs are tumbling, Surveys suggest a tough labor market (jobs hard to get far worse than jobs plentiful), but... initial jobless claims remain flat near multi-decade lows? Which is weird because before 2019, the two time series sync'd up very well - as one would expect... Should we just be ignoring surveys completely now? Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 08:35
Ardmore Shipping press release ( ASC ): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.28. Revenue of $82.91M (+1.1% Y/Y). More on Ardmore Shipping Ardmore Shipping Corporation: A Modern Fleet Trading At A Discount Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Ardmore Shipping Historical earnings data for Ardmore Shipping Dividend scorecard for Ardmore Shipping Financial information for Ardmore Shipping
Ardmore Shipping press release ( ASC ): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.28. Revenue of $82.91M (+1.1% Y/Y). More on Ardmore Shipping Ardmore Shipping Corporation: A Modern Fleet Trading At A Discount Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Ardmore Shipping Historical earnings data for Ardmore Shipping Dividend scorecard for Ardmore Shipping Financial information for Ardmore Shipping
We explore the cosy world-building spin-off with Game Freak’s Shigeru Ohmori and his fellow developers – and learn how it began with a Pokémon-hunting dream Pokémon is celebrating its 30th anniversary this month, and everybody knows what to expect from these games by now. The concept is simple: head into a cartoonish paradise full of whimsical creatures, capture them in red-and-white balls and ass...
We explore the cosy world-building spin-off with Game Freak’s Shigeru Ohmori and his fellow developers – and learn how it began with a Pokémon-hunting dream Pokémon is celebrating its 30th anniversary this month, and everybody knows what to expect from these games by now. The concept is simple: head into a cartoonish paradise full of whimsical creatures, capture them in red-and-white balls and assemble a team of warriors from them, before battling other aspiring Pokémon masters. But the latest entry in the series is different – a game that’s more about building than battling. In Pokopia, a refreshingly pacific twist on the series, players are dropped into a virtual world where Pokémon are freed from their spherical prisons and happily roam their natural habitats. There’s one minor caveat – you have to create those habitats by hand, building them from what you can find. Continue reading...
Mamphotography/iStock via Getty Images Market overview Another quarter, another positive global equity market. For the fourth quarter, developed markets ex-U.S. (per the MSCI EAFE Index) were up 6.13% in local currency terms, although relative strength in the U.S. dollar detracted 1.27% for U.S.-based investors, lowering their return to 4.86%. The full-year 2025 return was 20.60% in local currency...
Mamphotography/iStock via Getty Images Market overview Another quarter, another positive global equity market. For the fourth quarter, developed markets ex-U.S. (per the MSCI EAFE Index) were up 6.13% in local currency terms, although relative strength in the U.S. dollar detracted 1.27% for U.S.-based investors, lowering their return to 4.86%. The full-year 2025 return was 20.60% in local currency and 31.22% in U.S. dollars. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies around the world and the ongoing expectation that policy will continue to be stimulative propelled markets higher during the fourth quarter. Plunging oil prices also contributed to the belief that inflation will stay contained and therefore policy settings can remain favorable. Precious metals prices exploded during the quarter, with gold, silver and platinum up 11.15%, 49.53% and 25.48%, respectively. Interestingly, Bitcoin, often viewed as an alternative to fiat currency similar to precious metals, was actually down 23.55%. Volatility in the equity market was well contained, although bond market volatility, represented by the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index, continued to fall toward historic lows. From a country perspective, all developed markets were positive during the quarter, with the exception of Australia, when measured in local currency terms. Austria, Finland and Ireland led the way, up 17.97%, 14.32% and 14.29%, respectively. Australia was the worst-performing developed market, down 1.57%, with New Zealand up 0.58% and Portugal up 0.74%. On a sector basis, utilities and health care were the standout performers, up 10.63% and 10.39% in local currencies, followed by financials, up 8.37%. Communication services was the biggest laggard and the only sector with a negative return, down 5.01%, followed by real estate, up 2.59%, and consumer discretionary, up 3.62%. Top holdings (% of net assets): as of December 31, 2025 Banco Santander ( SAN ) 3.24 Shell ( SHEL ) 3.07 TotalEnergie...
Early projections suggest Emerald Fennell’s adaptation could recoup its $80m production budget in its opening three days – with strong US and overseas takings expected The titillating trailers and method-dressed promotional tour appear to have paid off: early indications are that Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights will earn back its $80m (£59m) production budget on the first weekend of release. P...
Early projections suggest Emerald Fennell’s adaptation could recoup its $80m production budget in its opening three days – with strong US and overseas takings expected The titillating trailers and method-dressed promotional tour appear to have paid off: early indications are that Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights will earn back its $80m (£59m) production budget on the first weekend of release. Projections estimate the three-day frame, which falls on Valentine’s weekend, should recoup around $50m (£37m) at the US box office – where it opens across 3,600 screens – and a further $40m (£29m) overseas. Continue reading...
Jeremy Poland/E+ via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Shell ( SHEL ), I highlighted their strong cash flow, disciplined capital allocation, and the potential to see the “European Discount” narrow as capital migration could advance in their favor. With the stock up about 7% since then despite an expectably weak quarter (as a result of falling prices), continued buybacks, and a divi...
Jeremy Poland/E+ via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Shell ( SHEL ), I highlighted their strong cash flow, disciplined capital allocation, and the potential to see the “European Discount” narrow as capital migration could advance in their favor. With the stock up about 7% since then despite an expectably weak quarter (as a result of falling prices), continued buybacks, and a dividend increase that supports a double-digit annualized total yield, I reiterate Shell’s Buy rating, as the valuation continues to be attractive given potential macro developments. Internal Developments Shell IR Shell reported an overall weak Q4, missing the market’s top- and bottom-line estimates , with the free cash flow dropping significantly to $21.95 billion compared to $33.60 billion in 2024, mostly as a result of negative working capital changes that come alongside lower prices. Subtracting their interest expenses, we’re looking at a free cash flow to equity of $19.23 billion in 2025 and $31.19 billion in 2024 (note that they report an adjusted form of the FCF, which reached $26.1 billion in 2025). Shell IR The company continued to advance on their long-term targets for structural cost savings and growth, continuing to target an increase in normalized FCF per share of 10% per year from 2024 to 2030, expecting between $20 billion and $22 billion in cash CAPEX, similar to the ~$21 billion spent in 2025. Shell IR Financially, based on SHEL’s latest report , we can see an overall normal position, with the current assets slightly below their current liabilities and a high but manageable amount of debt, with plenty of assets that cover it very well. Shell IR Unlike BP ( BP ), which halted their buybacks to focus on their balance sheet following their recent Q4 report, Shell took a different approach, refreshing their quarterly $3.5 billion buyback program for 2026 alongside a 4% increase in their quarterly dividend, with 2025's total shareholder returns representing about 52...
Pakistan International Airlines’ new owners plan to list the carrier within a year of taking over operations. The plan is to list 5%-10% of the carrier, said Aqeel Karim Dhedhi , chairman at AKD Group, one of the members of the consortium that purchased a 75% stake in the national flag carrier for 135 billion rupees ($482 million) from the government. PIA has survived on government bailouts for ye...
Pakistan International Airlines’ new owners plan to list the carrier within a year of taking over operations. The plan is to list 5%-10% of the carrier, said Aqeel Karim Dhedhi , chairman at AKD Group, one of the members of the consortium that purchased a 75% stake in the national flag carrier for 135 billion rupees ($482 million) from the government. PIA has survived on government bailouts for years after struggling with massive losses and high debt caused by operational inefficiencies, an aging fleet and political intervention. Dhedhi, who has a 16% stake in the consortium, said that PIA aims to reclaim its market share by offering direct flights. “There are no direct flights from Pakistan and currently passengers are taking transit flights from airlines based in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Turkey,” he said. “We will take our business back from these airlines. Passengers who can have a direct flight would never want to take a transit flight.” The government is now focused on finding a partner to redevelop Roosevelt Hotel in New York and selling power distribution companies as part of a key condition set by the International Monetary Fund for receiving funds.
glegorly Initial jobless claims decreased 5K to 227K in the week ended Feb. 7 vs. 222K consensus and 232K prior (revised from 231K), according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The four-week moving average was 219,500, an increase of 7,000 from the prior week's average of 212,500. Continuing claims for the week ended Jan. 31 grew to 1.862M from 1.841M in the prior week....
glegorly Initial jobless claims decreased 5K to 227K in the week ended Feb. 7 vs. 222K consensus and 232K prior (revised from 231K), according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The four-week moving average was 219,500, an increase of 7,000 from the prior week's average of 212,500. Continuing claims for the week ended Jan. 31 grew to 1.862M from 1.841M in the prior week. (revised from 1.844M). The newest data exceeded the 1.850M consensus. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% for the week ended Jan. 31, unchanged from the earlier week's unrevised rate, the Department of Labor said Thursday. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs on an unadjusted basis was 248,397 in the week ended Feb. 7, a decrease of 4,555 from the prior week. Seasonal factors expected an increase of 1,161 from the previous week. Initial jobless claims stay within 200K-250K band (U.S. Department of Labor) More on Jobs & Employment Private Sector Ramps Up Hiring. Job Losses Mount At Federal And State Governments Nonfarm payrolls growth shocks to the upside in January; unemployment slips to 4.3% Job openings continue to dwindle in December: JOLTS report
panumas nikomkai/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis In a recent Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO ) article, I wrote on how money in AI infrastructure often follows the constraints. First it was GPUs, then custom silicon, and as of late it has been the memory wall. For Coherent (NYSE: COHR ), the constraint emerging is even smaller: the tiny laser chips that make it physically possible for GPUs to tal...
panumas nikomkai/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis In a recent Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO ) article, I wrote on how money in AI infrastructure often follows the constraints. First it was GPUs, then custom silicon, and as of late it has been the memory wall. For Coherent (NYSE: COHR ), the constraint emerging is even smaller: the tiny laser chips that make it physically possible for GPUs to talk to each other have grown to be a necessity for the future of AI data centers. I think that Coherent is one of the cleaner ways to play that constraint right now. The problem lies in the stock being priced for perfect execution after a near 96.9% move in the last six months, so throughout this article, I want to focus on what is being underpriced and what could go wrong for Coherent. What Coherent Actually Does In large GPU clusters, the bottleneck shifts from compute to bandwidth, so optics becomes a limiting factor. The components that handle this communication in optics from electrical signals to light and back again are optical transceivers. Coherent builds these transceivers, but the moat that can set them apart from competitors like Lumentum (NASDAQ: LITE ) is how deeply vertically integrated the business actually is. Coherent has not just been assembling parts but also growing its own indium phosphide wafers, which are the raw semiconductor material used to make lasers, fabricating its own laser chips in-house, and assembling the modules. Very few players in this space control that kind of stack, and it gives Coherent a strong level of cost control and flexibility. When demand spikes like it is right now, Coherent doesn't have to compete with other module makers for the limited laser chip supply. If you own the lasers, you can maintain revenue as you are not paying someone else's gross margin. The Numbers: A Record Quarter With Accelerating Momentum Q2 was clean, with growth mix and profitability making meaningful moves. Coherent generated $1.69 billion in revenue u...
Moussa81/iStock via Getty Images i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) +4.8% pre-market Thursday after saying it secured a financing package of as much as $500M , comprised of a royalty sale to Franco-Nevada ( FNV ) for $250M and a gold pre-payment facility for up to $250M, to support its recapitalization plan and strategy of creating a Nevada-focused mid-tier gold producer. i-80 Gold's ( IAUX ) final steps to compl...
Moussa81/iStock via Getty Images i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) +4.8% pre-market Thursday after saying it secured a financing package of as much as $500M , comprised of a royalty sale to Franco-Nevada ( FNV ) for $250M and a gold pre-payment facility for up to $250M, to support its recapitalization plan and strategy of creating a Nevada-focused mid-tier gold producer. i-80 Gold's ( IAUX ) final steps to complete the recapitalization plan targeting an overall amount of $900M-$1B include a plan to retire and replace existing convertible debentures with new convertible debentures on terms more favorable to the company and the potential sale of a non-core asset. The company entered into a commitment letter with Franco-Nevada ( FNV ) for $250M in financing in exchange for a 1.5% life-of-mine net smelter return royalty, stepping up to a 3.0% life-of-mine net smelter return royalty in 2031, and will apply to all of i-80 Gold's ( IAUX ) material properties, including six projects in various stages of development. i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) said it secured commitments for a gold prepay facility with National Bank and Macquarie for an initial advance of $150M at closing, with a $100M accordion feature, which it expects to execute in H1 2027. "With Franco-Nevada providing the foundational capital as part of our recapitalization, we now have a clear and achievable path to over 600K oz of gold production annually by the early 2030s," i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) President and CEO Richard Young said. More on i-80 Gold and Franco-Nevada i-80 Gold: A Nevada Turnaround Story Trading At Just 0.28x NAV Franco-Nevada: I See An Affordable Alternative Franco-Nevada: A High-Quality Compounder Worth Paying Up For (Rating Upgrade)
Pawel Kacperek/iStock via Getty Images Austin Hawley, CFA Portfolio Manager Brian Fontanella, CFA Portfolio Specialist Market and portfolio review Equity markets continued to move higher in Q4, with the Russell 1000 Value Index increasing 3.8%. The information technology (+11%) and communication services (+9%) sectors were again among the best performers in Q4, driven by continued optimism around ...
Pawel Kacperek/iStock via Getty Images Austin Hawley, CFA Portfolio Manager Brian Fontanella, CFA Portfolio Specialist Market and portfolio review Equity markets continued to move higher in Q4, with the Russell 1000 Value Index increasing 3.8%. The information technology (+11%) and communication services (+9%) sectors were again among the best performers in Q4, driven by continued optimism around artificial intelligence (AI). Health care (+8%) also posted a strong return, while utilities (-1%), real estate (-3%) and consumer discretionary (-0.2%) were the only sectors that declined. When examining what contributed to the index’s return in Q4, it is interesting to note that a large portion of the return came from what many consider growth areas of the market. The most notable example may be Alphabet ( GOOGL ), which was added to the index in June 2025 at a large weight. Its 29% return in Q4 made it by far the largest contributor to the index’s performance for the quarter, and it is now the largest weight in the index by a wide margin. Many information technology stocks also outperformed in Q4, supported by the hundreds of billions of dollars of AI-related capital spending, with several stocks — such as Micron ( MU ) and Sandisk ( SNDK ) — increasing 50% to 100% or more. The portfolio’s lack of exposure to these AI-related companies was responsible for around 70% of the Q4 underperformance, and this same dynamic was also a very large driver of the portfolio’s full-year underperformance. Over the past several quarters, we have been finding more value among more fundamentally stable, higher-quality, cash-generative businesses including Colgate ( CL ), Aon ( AON ) and Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A )( BRK.B ). However, these types of companies and defensive areas of the market materially underperformed throughout 2025, creating an additional headwind to relative performance. Fundamentals for these high-quality businesses continue to perform in line with our expectations, and...