HUNG CHIN LIU/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas On the brink of a delta, and it has the potential to be more positive than negative In the past few weeks, we've monitored the ups and downs in the Iran war. A few weeks back it seemed that President Trump had declared victory and was preparing to wind things down ( here ). That proved a false dawn....
HUNG CHIN LIU/iStock via Getty Images By Padhraic Garvey, CFA , Regional Head of Research, Americas On the brink of a delta, and it has the potential to be more positive than negative In the past few weeks, we've monitored the ups and downs in the Iran war. A few weeks back it seemed that President Trump had declared victory and was preparing to wind things down ( here ). That proved a false dawn. Then things moved in a sinister fashion, and we highlighted the deterioration ( here and here ), with specifics based off elevated break-even inflation rates, rises in Treasury yields and a downsizing in rate cut expectations. The backstory saw Iran take control of the Strait of Hormuz, shifting the initiative from the US. And we roll on to Tuesday, where an 8pm deadline looms, beyond which a severe threat has been laid before Iran. In many ways, this is much worse than tariffs, as you just pay these and move on. Here, a global energy crisis is a whole different dimension, and it comes with both a price and demand shock risk, the outcome of which is actually not in the hands of the US. It’s in the hands of Iran. In the past hour, there has been a call for a two-week ceasefire, via Pakistan, as part of the negotiations. This presents an opportunity for President Trump to seize the initiative and take us away from the brink. In actuality, this war must end in the next couple of weeks, else we are on the precipice of a pandemic-style shutdown in many regions of the world, with a global recession risk to boot The immediate issue, and the clearest transmission mechanism to bonds and Treasuries, is through inflation, with front-end break-evens in the 3-5% zone, and the prognosis for Treasuries is the curve keeps edging higher. This whole scenario is outright bad for President Trump. Opinion polls suggest no chance for Republican success in the midterms. A good chunk of his base voted for him on the theory that there would be no more wars like this one, and at the moment, the Rep...
(RTTNews) - The China stock market on Tuesday ended the two-day slide in which it had fallen almost 70 points or 1.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index now sits just above the 3,890-point plateau and it's expected to see little movement on Wednesday.
(RTTNews) - The China stock market on Tuesday ended the two-day slide in which it had fallen almost 70 points or 1.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index now sits just above the 3,890-point plateau and it's expected to see little movement on Wednesday.
For most ordinary people in ancient China, using the toilet was a routine necessity. In the imperial court, however, even the most private act became a carefully staged display of status and ritual. Papermaking, one of China’s Four Great Inventions, had emerged by the Han dynasty (206 BC–220), yet paper remained too precious for daily use. Instead of toilet paper, commoners relied on leaves, pebbl...
For most ordinary people in ancient China, using the toilet was a routine necessity. In the imperial court, however, even the most private act became a carefully staged display of status and ritual. Papermaking, one of China’s Four Great Inventions, had emerged by the Han dynasty (206 BC–220), yet paper remained too precious for daily use. Instead of toilet paper, commoners relied on leaves, pebbles, or tiles for personal cleaning, while the elite used silk or cloth. They also employed slender...
Seven murals celebrating the Thai and Chiu Chow heritage of Hong Kong’s Kowloon City will be erected in the district known for its ethnic Thai population and traditional stores under a public scheme to encourage building renovations in the area. The first on Jenford Building has been completed on South Wall Road in the heart of the city’s “Little Thailand”, featuring a purple cartoon elephant dres...
Seven murals celebrating the Thai and Chiu Chow heritage of Hong Kong’s Kowloon City will be erected in the district known for its ethnic Thai population and traditional stores under a public scheme to encourage building renovations in the area. The first on Jenford Building has been completed on South Wall Road in the heart of the city’s “Little Thailand”, featuring a purple cartoon elephant dressed in a blue Hawaiian shirt, grinning with its trunk lifted as if greeting passers-by. Against a...