JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Per my November article , Amazon ( AMZN ) looked like a buy for long-term investors at the time, but it was before management said they expect to spend about $200 billion on capex in 2026. Putting this in perspective, Amazon had free cash flow ("FCF") of $11.2 billion in 2025 from $139.5 billion in operating cash flow ("OCF") less $128.3 bil...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Per my November article , Amazon ( AMZN ) looked like a buy for long-term investors at the time, but it was before management said they expect to spend about $200 billion on capex in 2026. Putting this in perspective, Amazon had free cash flow ("FCF") of $11.2 billion in 2025 from $139.5 billion in operating cash flow ("OCF") less $128.3 billion in net capex ($131.8 billion in property and equipment ("P&E") purchases less $3.5 billion in P&E proceeds). OCF is expected to be under $200 billion next year, which means Amazon should have negative FCF for 2026 given the massive increase in capex . My thesis is that Amazon is rather old to be going into negative FCF territory without management providing clear and thorough explanations. The Numbers Going through 10-K filings and subtracting net capex from OCF, we look at Amazon's FCF over the years. Apart from accounting quirks in 1998, Amazon was FCF negative from 1995 to 2001. They started being FCF positive in 2002 and this lasted for 19 years until the COVID pandemic hit, and we saw negative FCF in both 2021 and 2022. The difference between expected negative FCF in 2026 and negative FCF in 2021 and 2022 is that management did a good job communicating the investment choices made in the pandemic years of 2020, 2021 and 2022. Here is what their FCF has looked like the last 8 years (in billions of dollars): FCF OCF Net Capex SBC Depreciation/ Amortization Operating Income Revenue 2018 $19.4 $30.7 $(11.3) $(5.4) $(15.3) $12.4 $232.9 2019 $25.8 $38.5 $(12.7) $(6.9) $(21.8) $14.5 $280.5 2020 $31.0 $66.1 $(35.0) $(9.2) $(25.3) $22.9 $386.1 2021 $(9.1) $46.3 $(55.4) $(12.8) $(34.4) $24.9 $469.8 2022 $(11.6) $46.8 $(58.3) $(19.6) $(41.9) $12.2 $514.0 2023 $36.8 $84.9 $(48.1) $(24.0) $(48.7) $36.9 $574.8 2024 $38.2 $115.9 $(77.7) $(22.0) $(52.8) $68.6 $638.0 2025 $11.2 $139.5 $(128.3) $(19.5) $(65.8) $80.0 $716.9 Click to enlarge This is a cumulative 8-year FCF of nearly $...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Per my November article , Amazon ( AMZN ) looked like a buy for long-term investors at the time, but it was before management said they expect to spend about $200 billion on capex in 2026. Putting this in perspective, Amazon had free cash flow ("FCF") of $11.2 billion in 2025 from $139.5 billion in operating cash flow ("OCF") less $128.3 bil...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Per my November article , Amazon ( AMZN ) looked like a buy for long-term investors at the time, but it was before management said they expect to spend about $200 billion on capex in 2026. Putting this in perspective, Amazon had free cash flow ("FCF") of $11.2 billion in 2025 from $139.5 billion in operating cash flow ("OCF") less $128.3 billion in net capex ($131.8 billion in property and equipment ("P&E") purchases less $3.5 billion in P&E proceeds). OCF is expected to be under $200 billion next year, which means Amazon should have negative FCF for 2026 given the massive increase in capex . My thesis is that Amazon is rather old to be going into negative FCF territory without management providing clear and thorough explanations. The Numbers Going through 10-K filings and subtracting net capex from OCF, we look at Amazon's FCF over the years. Apart from accounting quirks in 1998, Amazon was FCF negative from 1995 to 2001. They started being FCF positive in 2002 and this lasted for 19 years until the COVID pandemic hit, and we saw negative FCF in both 2021 and 2022. The difference between expected negative FCF in 2026 and negative FCF in 2021 and 2022 is that management did a good job communicating the investment choices made in the pandemic years of 2020, 2021 and 2022. Here is what their FCF has looked like the last 8 years (in billions of dollars): FCF OCF Net Capex SBC Depreciation/ Amortization Operating Income Revenue 2018 $19.4 $30.7 $(11.3) $(5.4) $(15.3) $12.4 $232.9 2019 $25.8 $38.5 $(12.7) $(6.9) $(21.8) $14.5 $280.5 2020 $31.0 $66.1 $(35.0) $(9.2) $(25.3) $22.9 $386.1 2021 $(9.1) $46.3 $(55.4) $(12.8) $(34.4) $24.9 $469.8 2022 $(11.6) $46.8 $(58.3) $(19.6) $(41.9) $12.2 $514.0 2023 $36.8 $84.9 $(48.1) $(24.0) $(48.7) $36.9 $574.8 2024 $38.2 $115.9 $(77.7) $(22.0) $(52.8) $68.6 $638.0 2025 $11.2 $139.5 $(128.3) $(19.5) $(65.8) $80.0 $716.9 Click to enlarge This is a cumulative 8-year FCF of nearly $...
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has brushed aside calls to suspend or remove Malaysia’s anti-corruption chief, asking critics to “read his explanation”, after fresh reports about his shareholdings reignited public anger against the official. Citing corporate filings, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Azam Baki, chief commissioner of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), was a key sharehol...
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has brushed aside calls to suspend or remove Malaysia’s anti-corruption chief, asking critics to “read his explanation”, after fresh reports about his shareholdings reignited public anger against the official. Citing corporate filings, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that Azam Baki, chief commissioner of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), was a key shareholder in an investment holding company. Azam told local media on Wednesday that the report was...
Ontex press release ( ONXXF ): Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was €39 million, compared to €57 million in 2024, representing a margin contraction by -3.0pp to 8.9% year on year, and by -2.4pp quarter on quarter. Revenue of €436M (-8.5% Y/Y). Operating profit was €7 million, including €(12) million one-off costs, linked to some additional restructuring and impairment of obsolete assets and intangibles. 2026 ou...
Ontex press release ( ONXXF ): Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was €39 million, compared to €57 million in 2024, representing a margin contraction by -3.0pp to 8.9% year on year, and by -2.4pp quarter on quarter. Revenue of €436M (-8.5% Y/Y). Operating profit was €7 million, including €(12) million one-off costs, linked to some additional restructuring and impairment of obsolete assets and intangibles. 2026 outlook The ambitions for the year are thereby set as follows: > Adjusted EBITDA is to increase by around 10% overall, based on a largely stable revenue and net efficiency improvements. The improvement will be gradual through the year, starting from a soft first quarter, which is expected in line with the fourth quarter of 2025, but therefore lower than the strong first quarter of 2025. > Free cash flow is to turn positive, based on the EBITDA improvement and lower transformation-related capital expenditure and restructuring cash-out; > Leverage is to drop to 3x or lower by year end. More on Ontex Group NV Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Ontex Group NV Historical earnings data for Ontex Group NV Financial information for Ontex Group NV