寧德時代低空經濟深度佈局！峰飛航空正式發佈全球首個海空一體方案 news.futunn.com

Anski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Last Thursday morning, we received first-quarter production and delivery figures from Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ). As the company looks to a future based on robotaxis and robots, the current business has not fared too well lately. Tesla announced very disappointing figures for Q1, especially when it came to the energy business, which could mean that 2026 analyst estimates see new lows in the coming weeks. Previous Coverage of the Name My most recent article on Tesla came back in late January, at which time the company had just reported its Q4 2025 results . Top and bottom line beats were reported, but the numbers didn't look as good as originally thought, and management did not give a concrete delivery forecast for 2026. Since that time to Friday's close, Tesla shares lost almost 18%, basically triple the 5.7% decline seen in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ). The Q1 Headline Figures At the end of September 2025, the $7,500 U.S. EV credit ended, and some other countries, like Norway, saw certain incentives expire or wind down at the end of the year. Since Q4 started, Tesla has looked at increasing ways to drive demand, whether it be through lower-priced variants of the Model 3/Y or sales incentives like discounts and interest rate deals. As a reminder, last year's Q1 saw deliveries of about 336,700 vehicles, significantly constrained due to the refresh of the Model Y. In the graphic below, you can see what Tesla reported for this year's January to March period. Tesla Q1 Production and Deliveries (Company Press Release) This was quite disappointing on both the vehicle and energy product fronts. A week ago, Tesla investor relations sent out their street-compiled estimates , calling for deliveries of more than 365,000 vehicles. Tesla also announced on Thursday that it deployed 8.8 GWh of energy storage products in Q1, substantially below the more than 14 GWh that the street was looking for. In just the couple of days since Tesla detailed these Q1 f...

Anski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Last Thursday morning, we received first-quarter production and delivery figures from Tesla, Inc. ( TSLA ). As the company looks to a future based on robotaxis and robots, the current business has not fared too well lately. Tesla announced very disappointing figures for Q1, especially when it came to the energy business, which could mean that 2026 analyst estimates see new lows in the coming weeks. Previous Coverage of the Name My most recent article on Tesla came back in late January, at which time the company had just reported its Q4 2025 results . Top and bottom line beats were reported, but the numbers didn't look as good as originally thought, and management did not give a concrete delivery forecast for 2026. Since that time to Friday's close, Tesla shares lost almost 18%, basically triple the 5.7% decline seen in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ). The Q1 Headline Figures At the end of September 2025, the $7,500 U.S. EV credit ended, and some other countries, like Norway, saw certain incentives expire or wind down at the end of the year. Since Q4 started, Tesla has looked at increasing ways to drive demand, whether it be through lower-priced variants of the Model 3/Y or sales incentives like discounts and interest rate deals. As a reminder, last year's Q1 saw deliveries of about 336,700 vehicles, significantly constrained due to the refresh of the Model Y. In the graphic below, you can see what Tesla reported for this year's January to March period. Tesla Q1 Production and Deliveries (Company Press Release) This was quite disappointing on both the vehicle and energy product fronts. A week ago, Tesla investor relations sent out their street-compiled estimates , calling for deliveries of more than 365,000 vehicles. Tesla also announced on Thursday that it deployed 8.8 GWh of energy storage products in Q1, substantially below the more than 14 GWh that the street was looking for. In just the couple of days since Tesla detailed these Q1 f...

Tesla: Weak Start To 2026 (NASDAQ:TSLA) seekingalpha.com

U. J. Alexander/iStock via Getty Images I just returned from a little vacation overseas and thought I'd begin my return into the Seeking Alpha zeitgeist with an article on, you guessed it: an energy company. Meantime, all I'll say about my vacation is that I am sure glad I'm not booking the same flights today! That's because the war-on-Iran has made jet-fuel much more valuable. It's also made diesel much more valuable, too. That brings me to my long-term love-hate relationship with Phillips 66 ( PSX ) - which just happens to have more coking capacity than any other U.S. refiner and which is also the biggest single importer of Canadian heavy crude. As a result, PSX is probably just killing it on diesel margins right now. In addition, another primary catalyst for PSX is that Asian chemical makers get a very high-percentage of their of naphtha feedstock via Middle East suppliers that ship via the Straight of Hormuz. As a result, the war-on-Iran is hitting Asian chemical companies hard, which is likely to improve Phillips 66's long ailing Chemicals Segment. Lastly, I think all this "has legs" and therefore am upgrading Phillips 66 two notches: from a HOLD to a STRONG BUY. But as you can see from the chart below, be careful with 'market orders' as the stock (and the price of oil) has been on a super-volatile roller-coaster ride that has included large intra-day price swings as investors try to separate fact-from-fiction while trying to figure out who to believe when it comes to the true status of the war: Data by YCharts Investment Thesis My followers know that I have owned Phillips 66 since the spin-off from its mother-ship (ConocoPhillips) back in 2012, and have covered it on Seeking Alpha ever since - many times mentioning that PSX is the #1 importer of Canadian heavy (i.e. from the oil sands) to feed its refinery business' relatively large percentage of distillates yields (i.e, the commonly called "bottom of the barrel" - diesel, heating oil, etc.). The slide below f...

Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions ( KTOS ) surged as much as 8.6% on Monday, extending earlier gains after a bullish analyst call highlighted accelerating growth prospects tied to next-generation weapons programs. The rally follows an upgrade from Jefferies , which lifted its rating on the defense contractor to buy from hold. In a note to clients, analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu pointed to a potential upside scenario in which Kratos’ Government Solutions segment delivers compound annual revenue growth of roughly 31% through 2028. That outlook is underpinned by increasing demand tied to hypersonic systems, an area where Kratos has been expanding its footprint. The company’s turbine technologies unit is also positioned to benefit from rising investment in missile propulsion, including its involvement in the Prometheus joint venture, according to the note. Kahyaoglu additionally flagged an anticipated production ramp for Kratos’ Valkyrie unmanned drone program, another contributor to the company’s longer-term growth trajectory. Jefferies maintained its $85 price target on the stock, implying roughly 26% upside from Thursday’s closing level. More on Kratos Defense & Security Kratos Defense: Leading The Charge In Hypersonics And Defense Tech (Rating Upgrade) Kratos: Multiple Growth Drivers To Launch This Stock Kratos: The Best Stock To Buy For The Future Of Defense Cheap drone ‘Lucas’ is said to signal shift in U.S. war strategy Ukraine eyes drone export boom as Middle East conflicts highlight demand

Whether it wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions of the US-Israeli war on Iran will echo for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics, energy security and global perceptions of American tactical and strategic power. In the first of a three-part series, Mark Magnier looks at how the Iran war may alter Beijing’s approach to potential conflict over Taiwan, asymmetrical weaponry and the United States as an adversary. The US military is formidable, well-disciplined, projects deadly force...

peshkov/iStock via Getty Images A guest post by Ovi All of the crude plus condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly ( PSM ), which provides updated production information up to January 2025. U.S. January oil production decreased by 410 kb/d to 13,246 kb/d and is down by 618 kb/d from October and was largely due to extreme late January weather. The largest decreases came from the Big 2 states, TX and NM. February’s production is expected to rebound by 450 kb/d to 13,696 kb/d according to the March STEO. Peak US oil production occurred in October 2025 at 13,864 kb/d but may be exceeded in early 2027. According to this article : U.S. would lose an average of 340 kb/d in January 2026 due to the cold weather. The 340 kb/d drop was a fairly good estimate since the combined January drop from Texas and New Mexico was 375 kb/d. “Most of the remaining outages were in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which accounts for around half of U.S. crude production, according to Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones, who said production there was recovering quickly.” The dark blue graph, taken from the January 2025 STEO, is the U.S. oil production forecast from January 2026 to December 2027. Output for December 2027 is expected to drop to 13,844 kb/d. From February 2026 to December 2027, U.S. oil production is expected to increase by 148 kb/d. The light blue graph is the STEO’s forecast for the Onshore L48 output to December 2027. From February 2026 to December 2027, production is expected to increase by 327 kb/d to 11,528 kb/d. The rising production starting in September 2026, according to the EIA, is due to higher prices for WTI and more NG pipelines being built. Note how production is essentially flat for all of 2027. U.S. Oil Production Ranked by State Listed above are the 10 US states with the largest oil production along with production from the Gulf of Mexico. These 10 states accounted for 82.1% of all U.S. oil...

美國股市早段變動不大。 市場關注中東局勢發展，美股假期後復市，道指低開32點後，指數一度回升超過100點。標普500指數及納斯達克指數早段靠穩。 市場繼續關注中東局勢發展，比特幣一度升穿7萬美元，持有比特幣資產的Strategy升逾百分之6。 科技股個別發展，美光科技升百分之3。AMD升逾百分之1，IBM跌逾百分之1。

With some misgivings, families and aviation enthusiasts bring stepladders and picnics to the perimeter fence It was a 4.40am start for the Wilkinson family. They packed their car with gear you might take on a trip to the seaside – folding chairs, blankets, a picnic. But instead of heading to the coast, they drove 80 miles from their home in Hampshire to Gloucestershire and set up camp close to the perimeter fence of RAF Fairford to watch American warplanes take off and land . “It’s definitely cheaper than a trip to a theme park,” said Jonathan Wilkinson, who was there with wife, Katie, and three sons, aged seven to 12. “The sights and sounds are impressive. But it’s a bittersweet thing. These planes are only here because of war. We have to keep that in mind.” Continue reading...

Experts weigh in on why some people have an inexplicable barrier to responding – and what they can do about it “There’s no such thing as a bad texter . They just don’t want to respond,” said influencer Delaney Rowe last year on the online talkshow Subway Takes . “People go around thinking being a bad texter is like a pathology, but it’s not. It’s a cop-out.” “I don’t believe in bad texters,” announced radio host Dan Zolot last year. “If you want to answer you will answer.” Continue reading...

Increased recognition of crime and perpetrators using technology to track victims are behind rise, say experts The number of stalking offences recorded by police has soared over the past decade, with experts saying the rise has been driven by increased recognition, and technology making it easier for perpetrators to track their victims. House of Commons library data analysed by the Liberal Democrats found more than 135,000 offences were recorded last year, up from just under 3,000 10 years ago. Continue reading...

Morning Brief Anchor Julie Hyman and Yahoo Finance Head of News Myles Udland discuss rising questions around OpenAI’s (OPAI.PVT) decision to acquire technology news podcast TBPN as the AI developer eyes a potential IPO.

RELEASE CHANGES TO THE SUPERVISORY BOARD OF KLÉPIERRE Paris, April 6, 2026 Klépierre’s Supervisory Board met on April 3, 2026, and paid tribute to Mr. David Simon, Chairman of the Company’s Supervisory Board for 14 years, who passed away on March 22. The Supervisory Board unanimously decided, on the recommendations of the Nomination and Compensation Committee, with immediate effect, to: appoint Mr. Stanley Shashoua as Chairman of the Supervisory Board for the duration of his term as a member of

Mamdani's Tax Plan Is A Warning To America: Counterproductive And Regressive Authored by Daniel Lacalle, Zohran Mamdani’s tax package is a warning to America . It is what you may expect when the radical left takes power. Demolition of the private sector and destruction of potential growth and jobs. Mamdani’s plan is not ambitious nor innovative; it is precisely the interventionist system that has been implemented throughout decades in countries that now suffer stagnation and elevated unemployment. It concentrates New York City’s fiscal risk onto a narrow and mobile base of taxpayers and companies in a way that could undermine growth, jobs, and long-term stability. The likely impact on jobs and growth will not improve public services but will likely be used to bloat political spending, leading to increased dissatisfaction among taxpayers and potentially exacerbating economic inequality. Furthermore, it is deeply regressive as it hurts middle-class property owners. The most aggressive element is the estate-tax redesign , which would slash the exemption threshold from roughly 7.35 million dollars to 750,000 dollars and push the top estate tax rate from 16% to 50%. This would move New York from taxing only very large fortunes to reaching into the middle class, particularly downstate homeowners with substantial housing equity and retirement assets but little income. Such an aggressive move on estates, on top of high income and property taxes, is the perfect example of stealth confiscation of wealth and risks accelerating the long-running migration of wealth and domicile to lower-tax states like Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas. Mamdani’s core proposal is a 2-percentage point increase in the city personal income tax for residents earning over 1 million dollars, lifting the top city rate from roughly 3.88% to about 5.88%. When combined with the existing state top rate of nearly 10.9%, this proposal would raise the total marginal income tax on top earners in New York City ...

Enterprise AI programs rarely fail because of bad ideas. More often, they get stuck in ungoverned pilot mode and never reach production. At a recent VentureBeat event, technology leaders from MassMutual and Mass General Brigham explained how they avoided that trap — and what the results look like when discipline replaces sprawl. At MassMutual, the results are concrete: 30% developer productivity gains, IT help desk resolution times reduced from 11 minutes to one, and customer service calls cut from 15 minutes to just one or two. “We're always starting with why do we care about this problem?” Sears Merritt, MassMutual’s head of enterprise technology and experience, said at the event. “If we solve the problem, how are we gonna know we solved it? And, how much value is associated with doing that?” Defining metrics, establishing strong feedback loops MassMutual, a 175-year-old company serving millions of policy owners and customers, has pushed AI into production across the business — customer support, IT, customer acquisition, underwriting, servicing, claims, and other areas. Merritt said his team follows the scientific method, beginning with a hypothesis and testing whether it has an outcome that will tangibly drive the business forward. Some ideas are great, but they may be “intractable in the business” due to factors like lack of data or access, or regulatory constraint. “We won't go any further with an idea until we get crystal clear on how we're going to measure, and how we're going to define success.” Ultimately, it’s up to different departments and leaders to define what quality means: Choose a metric and define the minimum level of quality before a tool is placed into the hands of teams and partners. That starting point creates a quick feedback loop. “The things that we find slow us down is where there isn't shared clarity on what outcome we're trying to achieve,” which can lead to confusion and constant re-adjusting, said Merritt. “We don’t go to production unt...

Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman LLC Urges Oracle Corporation globenewswire.com

报告要点： 出口贡献批发大幅好于零售，促消费政策预期保持稳健 乘用车：3月1-31日，全国乘用车市场零售165.7万辆，同比去年3月下降15%，较上月增长60%，今年以来累计零售423.6万辆，同比下降17%；3月1-31日，全国乘用车厂商批发232万辆，同比去年3月下降4%，较上月增长53%，今年以来累计批发581.3万辆，同比下降8%。 新能源：3月1-31日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售78.4万辆，同比去年3月下降21%，较上月增长69%，今年以来累计零售184.4万辆，同比下降24%；3月1-31日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发112.6万辆，同比去年3月增长0%，较上月增长56%，今年以来累计批发271.6万辆，同比下降5%。 批发销量由于包含出口数据，同比情况显著好于零售水平。从1-2月情况来看，广义乘用车出口累计同比增长55.9%，预计3月出口仍处于较高水平，带动整体汽车销量好于零售情况。从经济整体观察。1-2月社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.8%，机构预期3月同比将继续小幅下行。但受外需强劲与基建投资大幅回暖带动，CMF预测一季度我国GDP增速有望达到5%以上超预期水平。我们在前期策略报告中指出，汽车消费支持政策的关键目标在于稳经济，而非单纯的鼓励汽车消费。在内外需综合带动，经济增长整体超预期背景下，预期汽车消费鼓励政策仍将保持相对稳健。海外仍是当前汽车增长主要带动力。 比亚迪日本补贴遭削减，产业出海需求增加 3月30日，日本经济产业省公布了新版新能源汽车补贴方案，对比亚迪在日本的购车补贴进行了大幅下调。比亚迪的补贴从之前的35万至40万日元减少至15万日元，削减超过一半，补贴水平在当地车企中处于最低。与此同时，丰田bZ4X的补贴高达130万日元，是比亚迪的10倍，日产、特斯拉等品牌的补贴也远超比亚迪。新政策将于今年4月生效，受影响车型从2027年1月起全面适用新规。除比亚迪外，未使用日本产电池的奥迪、现代等品牌补贴也遭大幅削减。有消息称此次调整与日美关税协议相关。直接出口遭遇贸易壁垒压力加大。产业出海仍有继续深入的需求。 投资建议 关注2026年托底政策保持稳健背景下，出口/出海的销量带动。建议产业界积极关注地缘政治造成的全球原有体系走弱背景下新能源出海机会，以及海外贸易政策压力背景下产业出海破局的迫切性。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期风险，政策支持力度不及...

摘要 在AI原生应用爆发式增长下，算力需求从“通用分散型CPU负载”转向“专用大规模型GPU负载”，NeoCloud核心服务传统云与大模型厂商算力需求，而非全行业通用数字化需求。 NeoCloud与传统云的本质差异：在于从全栈综合服务转向单点AI算力供给，同时保留对数据中心内的GPU算力完整的控制权。我们同时观察到芯片厂商+NeoCloud厂商+大模型厂商的三角格局正在兴起。 赛道内部基于资产形式、客群关系等形成差异化商业模式： ①全自建重资产垂直整合型（IREN、Crusoe）：数据中心基本自建，全链条垂直整合（有些具备能源优势），核心基建掌控力强。客群基本集中在巨头。 ②混合模式巨头绑定扩张型（Oracle、CoreWeave、Nebius）：数据中心核心自建+增量租赁混合，依赖头部客户订单，需要较大杠杆资金扩张，考验极速交付能力、融资可持续性以及资金成本控制； ③全租赁轻资产中小客群稳健型（DigitalOcean、Together.ai等）：100%第三方租赁托管，纯轻资产、资金压力小，客户为极度分散的中小企业/开发者。但壁垒较弱，与InferenceWrapper（推理封装云）相似，可能会沦为无壁垒算力管道。 通过拆解Coreweave经济模型思考影响Neocloud的商业模式长期可持续性的关键因素：CoreWeave5年期照付不议合同可通过锁定未来现金流撬动低成本融资，单合同现金流可覆盖全周期运营与融资本息，全周期净利率可达16%，且合同到期后可形成无折旧成本的第二增长曲线； 中长期来看，NeoCloud将保持高速增长，核心动能来自AI算力需求的持续指数级增长、头部厂商充足的RPO（剩余履约义务）订单锁定3-5年长期收入、与芯片巨头的深度绑定带来的供应链优先供货优势。 同时，行业也面临电力与土地的物理天花板、传统云巨头的竞争挤压、高杠杆带来的财务风险、客户高度集中导致的议价权弱势等核心挑战。 未来行业演化将呈现四大核心趋势： ①竞争核心从GPU规模，转向更快、更便宜“拿电-土建-液冷-组网-全栈调试”的全链条整合能力； ②云规模效益仍在、马太效应会持续加剧。头部厂商凭借资源与订单优势持续扩大市场份额，无差异化壁垒的中小厂商将面临淘汰或被收购； ③差异化成为突围核心，区域布局、细分场景定制、能源成本优势将成为NeoCloud厂商的核心竞争壁垒； ④行业经营...

投资要点： 本周观点：2025年年报和2026年一季报披露陆续开启，关注绩优公司基础业务的稳健度，以及AI叙事的弹性交易机会。目前AI赛道持续兑现产业进展。火山引擎Seedance2.0面向企业公测，豆包大模型日均Token使用量突破120万亿，千问新版大模型Qwen3.6-Plus上线，夯实AI场景落地基础，AI对业务效能优化空间持续打开，并且AI+创新产品有望加速落地。同时，随着游戏产品周期逐步展开，建议关注具备新品储备及长线内容运营能力的头部厂商。 游戏方面：完美世界《异环》预计国内4月23日/海外4月29日正式上线，我们判断：1）类GTA城市结构为功能型载体，核心作用是承载世界观、提升内容密度及调节游戏节奏，框架延展性较强，在内容扩展、活动承载与长期版本运营层面适配性高，对后续产能要求相对可控；2）目前玩法拼接完成度高，未出现“系统互相掣肘”的结构性风险，运行稳定性有保障。基于26年新产品周期陆续开启，部分公司可能存在投资机会。同时，建议重视头部游戏公司在AI+陪伴+游戏化范式探索上的示范效应，相关产品表现如果超预期有望推动相关上市公司的价值重估。建议关注【腾讯控股】【网易】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【心动公司】【三七互娱】【吉比特】【神州泰岳】【电魂网络】【掌趣科技】【百奥家庭互动】【友谊时光】【冰川网络】【名臣健康】【富春股份】【禅游科技】【中手游】【创梦天地】【祖龙娱乐】等。 AI应用方向：目前AI仍是全球产业叙事中最重要的方向之一，大厂AI产品进度仍是核心，且延续此前观点，我们认为AI入口竞争后续会持续演绎，手机端侧（苹果等）、超级APP（微信、抖音等）和垂直AI平台（类似豆包、元宝、千问、智谱等）将从不同维度持续推进AIAgent入口用户层面的教育和圈定，同时通过不同方式完 成应用层生态的连接和统一。建议重视产品落地且有收入结构的应用方向。相关方向梳理：1）具备流量优势的平台公司：腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、快手、哔哩哔哩等；2）聚焦大厂产业链布局的相关公司：①字节链：以广告+内容体系为主（漫剧、影视等）：营销公司包括引力传媒、蓝色光标、浙文互联、因赛集团、利欧股份、易点天下、天龙集团等，及内容IP公司包括荣信文化、中文在线、掌阅科技、博纳影业等；②阿里链：以电商模式为主：值得买、光云科技、焦点科技等，及代运营公司壹网壹创、青木科技等；③腾讯链：...

投资要点 CPO产业化持续提速，市场空间广阔。今年GTC大会上英伟达重点更新了核心产品的Roadmap，CPO技术得到进一步明确，在Scale-Out网络中有配套Rubin系统的Spectrum6芯片和配套Feynman系统的Spectrum7芯片；在Scale-Up网络中有NVLink8芯片，同时会上还更新了Kyber机柜，计划Feynman时代在Scale-Up网络应用CPO技术，随后其官网详细披露Vera Rubin Ultra NVL576和下一代机柜集群KyberNVL1152，均有望成为CPO技术在Scale-Up网络中的落地场景。CPO产业化持续提速，我们预计今年将在Scale-Out网络率先批量商用，明年逐步导入Scale-Up网络。Scale-Up网络带宽远超Scale-Out，因此随着Scale-Up需求持续释放，将进一步打开CPO市场空间。建议后续重点关注CPO产业链上下游的订单进展，把握供应链标的的确定性机会。 OCS有望加速渗透，重点关注产业化新进展。今年OFC期间，OCS呈现加速渗透的趋势。LITE公开交流其OCS方向的进展，公司已向3家客户出货，指引2025-2028年出货量CAGR超150%，近期已与其中一家hyperscaler客户签订一份数十亿美元多年期协议，并有望在2026年下半年完成4亿美元出货，公司预计2027年营收有望破10亿美元；COHR更新其OCS产品采用低压的液晶技术，目前64×64/320×320端口产品已交付、512×512端口在研，已向10家客户出货并落地生产，其SAM（公司能触达的市场）由20亿美元已上调至40亿美元；NVDA在OFC期间也就OCS可为AI集群的Scale-out、Scale-up、Scale-across三大应用场景提供高可扩展性、高灵活性、高能效网络进行了探讨。目前OCS已在部分客户场景得到大规模应用，未来有望导入更多核心客户并切入更多应用场景，市场规模有望持续得到拓展。建议重点关注产品及市场拓展的重要新进展，OCS核心主导方谷歌计划4月下旬召开Google Cloud Next大会，可关注其对OCS产业链的催化。 DCI有望进入加速周期。DCI为AI算力建设的后周期需求，在多个数据中心需要实现跨园区、跨区域乃至跨洲互联时，远距离互联的需求有望逐步释放。此前Marvell在其业绩交流会上表...

报告摘要 历史上猪周期的驱动因素 猪周期的驱动因素是多重力量共同作用的结果,各类因素在不同阶段强弱各异,叠加共振后最终形成生猪价格“上涨-下跌-探底-回升”的周期性循环,具体有以下几个大的驱动因素:(1)供需关系,养殖利润周期推动蛛网模型下的生产时滞;(2)疫病冲击,例如2006年蓝耳病与2018年非洲猪瘟,给生猪存栏带来较大影响;(3)政策影响,以2014-2018年环保政策为代表,出清了部分不合规产能。 当前周期驱动因素的分析 从养殖利润驱动看,当前,生猪供给相对充裕,猪肉消费需求季节性走弱,供需宽松仍将持续一段时间,生猪价格仍将面临一定压力。猪价偏弱运行,行业处于亏损区间有望推动行业产能去化;从行业政策驱动看,自25年以来,政策部门推动行业“反内卷”,执行能繁母猪合理调减、加大弱仔淘汰力度、降低出栏体重等措施。政策目标是产能供给水平适度合理的调减;从疫病冲击看,当前非洲猪瘟等动物疫病整体可控,但需要持续观察。 投资建议 我们认为,当前生猪周期,应是蛛网模型下基于养殖利润-养殖行为调节的正常周期。政策层面,当前行业“反内卷”政策目标是产能供给水平适度合理的调减,并不支持大幅度调减行业产能。疫病层面,当前非洲猪瘟等动物疫病整体可控,行业防控投入、防控手段、防控能力都较强,但需要持续跟踪观察。由此看当前生猪周期,应是蛛网模型下基于养殖利润-养殖行为调节的正常周期。 交易上,行业产能去化趋势有望延续,重视生猪板块配置机会。一是生猪周期轮转不止,配合“反内卷”政策引导,产能有望合理调减,猪价预期和生猪板块走势有望得到支撑。二是生猪行业优势企业价值属性增强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平,而行业具备养殖管理和成本优势的企业望保持较好盈利能力,产业优质企业的自由现金流改善,支撑相关生猪企业估值。三是生猪行业优势企业红利属性增强。优质养殖企业重视并不断提升股东回报,生猪板块优质标的的长期红利属性和配置价值有望愈加显著。四是生猪头部企业推进全球化战略,望凭借技术、管理等优势把握海外市场机遇。 建议关注:优秀规模养殖集团【牧原股份】、【温氏股份】,具有养殖扩张优化、成长潜力的【神农集团】、【巨星农牧】、【华统股份】等。

投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 航运船舶港口： 1）伊朗正式立法征收霍尔木兹海峡通行费：伊朗议会通过立法，正式对通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船征收过境费，将此前临时执行的收费机制制度化，标志着地缘政治重大升级。法案禁止与美国、以色列或此前曾对伊朗实施单方面制裁的国家有关的船只通行，费用须以伊朗里亚尔支付，并要求与阿曼协调。自3月中旬起，伊朗革命卫队已在指定航道实施事实上的审查与收费，船只需向中介提供详细资料，彭博社报道称每次通行费用高达200万美元。 2）霍尔木兹海峡通航量小幅回升，多艘商船近日成功过境：4月2日，共有12艘船穿越霍尔木兹海峡，载重吨综合127.86万吨，包括7艘液体散货船和5艘干散货船。4月3日，一艘显示为法国所属的集装箱船已驶出霍尔木兹海峡，这是伊朗几乎关闭海峡以来首艘与西欧相关的船只通行。此前获准通行的大多是与伊朗友好国家的船只，在伊朗预先批准后船只沿紧贴伊朗海岸的航线通过。日本商船三井公司的LNG船“索哈尔”号也已穿越霍尔木兹海峡。此外，3日还有2艘VLCC和1艘LNG未走“安全通道”，而是沿阿曼海岸线穿越霍尔木兹海峡，期间可能关闭了AIS信号。尽管霍尔木兹海峡航运量仍远低于战前水平，但已出现小幅回升。 3）特朗普表示对伊朗战事的核心战略目标“接近完成”，并称美国不需要霍尔木兹海峡：美东时间4月1日晚，美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话，自行宣布对伊朗战事取得“快速、决定性、压倒性胜利”。他表示，美军对伊朗核设施的打击取得“巨大成功”，伊朗导弹和无人机能力已遭“极大削弱”，无需他国协助。特朗普称，美国对伊战事的核心战略目标“接近完成”，并预告未来几周将进行更强火力打击。在谈及霍尔木兹海峡时，特朗普表示美国几乎不需要通过该海峡进口石油，那些需要的国家必须“自己负责维护”。他鼓动这些国家要么从美国购买石油，要么直接去海峡“抢石油”，声称战事结束后海峡“自然将会开放”。此外，特朗普警告称，一旦无法达成协议，美国将猛烈打击伊朗所有发电厂。 4）本周集装箱运价上涨：SCFI综合运价指数较上周环比上涨1.5%，至1855点。其中，上海-欧洲/地中海运价分别环比变化-3.1%/-2.9%；上海-美西/美东运价分别环比变化+0.3%/-0.3%；上海-东南亚运价环比上涨3.0%。 5）本周VLCC运价上涨：BDTI指数较上周环比上涨3.82%，至3686点。VLCCTCE环比...

核心观点：白酒行业企稳，布局一季报高增长板块 3月30日-4月3日，食品饮料指数涨幅为0.9%，一级子行业排名第3，跑赢沪深300约2.2pct，子行业中预加工食品（+5.8%）、白酒（+1.7%）、调味发酵品（+1.7%）表现相对领先。本周在大盘向下调整时期，食品饮料的防御价值突显。本周飞天茅台调整价格，出厂价与终端指导价分别提100元/瓶与40元/瓶。我们认为飞天茅台本次提价，可看作是行业底部的关键信号，一方面提价可有效缓解自身业绩压力，另一方面也为白酒行业价盘企稳奠定基础。从提价支撑逻辑来看，2026年春节期间茅台动销表现强劲，节后飞天茅台批价稳定，也验证茅台酒消费需求的韧性，这为提价落地提供了供需基础。茅台作为白酒行业绝对龙头，此次提价缓解了其他名酒企业的价盘压制压力，明确了行业价格底部，预计后续白酒行业整体价格有望逐步企稳。在当前白酒行业分化加剧背景下，龙头企业凭借品牌壁垒、渠道掌控力，具备更强的抗风险能力和业绩韧性。我们坚定看好白酒龙头标的投资价值，建议优先配置贵州茅台、五粮液等头部酒企。 进入4月份，板块股价表现大概率与一季度业绩兑现情况相关，食品饮料核心投资逻辑应聚焦于一季度业绩高增长品种，我们建议重点关注零食、调味品两大板块。零食方面，受益于2026年春节错期以及假期天数增多加大消费场景释放，春节期间消费贡献显著，零食行业内龙头企业凭借品类红利以及渠道优势，实现终端动销较快增长。叠加量贩零食、即时零售等新兴渠道的增量贡献，预计一季度业绩高增长确定性较强。调味品板块方面，随着餐饮行业持续回暖，餐饮端需求稳步复苏，作为餐饮链核心配套品类，调味品需求也同步提升。同时受到地缘政治影响，当前能源、农产品等原材料价格上行，调味品企业提价传导路径相对顺畅，具备提价以应对冲成本压力的能力。当前我们建议可重点布局零食、调味品板块业绩确定性高的标的，如西麦食品、甘源食品、海天味业、中炬高新等。 推荐组合：贵州茅台、西麦食品、海天味业、甘源食品 （1）贵州茅台：在白酒需求下移背景下，公司进行市场化改革，以更加务实的姿态，强调未来可持续发展。茅台酒提价后，业绩确定性增强，此轮周期后茅台可看得更为长远。（2）西麦食品：燕麦主业稳健增长，线下基本盘稳固，新渠道开拓快速推进。原材料成本迎来改善，预计营收保持较快增长，盈利能力有望持续提升。（3）海天味业：调味品行业迎来需求复苏，...

免税：3月离岛免税销售稳步增长，清明假期赴岛客流延续景气 根据海口海关，2025Q1离岛免税购物金额达142.1亿元，购物人数181.6万人次，销售商品1097.7万件，分别同比+25.7%/+18%/+12%，隐含客单同比+6.5%。3月海南免税销售额36.23亿元/同比+25%，购物人次53.7万人次/同比+21.34%，购物件数465万件/同比+17.8%，对应客单价6747元/同比+3%。清明假期海南岛内海口美兰、三亚凤凰、琼海博鳌三大机场预计保障航班起降2699架次/同比+4%；预计保障旅客41.76万人次/同比+13.1%；货邮吞吐量3054吨/同比+12.9%，整体延续景气。展望二季度看，亚沙会、KPL春季总决赛、匹克球邀请赛等新落地文体活动有望拉动赴岛观赛度假客流。 地产/电力：3月香港商业地产交易额创新高，一季度电网投资额大幅增长 地产：中国香港楼市呈现价涨、量升、景气度持续抬升的三重特征，政策红利、全球资金流入、本地刚需托底形成强共振。价格端，中原地产香港楼价领先指数同比增长11.2%；成交端，3月楼宇买卖合约量、金额同比分别增长16.2%、36.5%，一季度新房“大手客”交易规模创2008年以来18年同期新高。中东资金加速布局，人才计划带来持续人口净流入。短期供需格局支撑楼价上行，中长期经济与人口优化加固基本面，受益标的：新鸿基地产、太古地产。电力设备：国网和南网2026年第一季度资本支出增长强劲，国家电网同比增长37%，达到1290亿元人民币；南方电网同比增长49.5%，达到385亿元人民币。计量设备外需复苏动能强劲，2月出口额同比增长12.5%，受益标的：威胜控股、哈尔滨电气。 美丽：隐形正畸长风已至，时代天使加速出海 隐形正畸行业渗透率快速提升时代天使自2022年启动全球化，通过收购巴西Aditek、建设美国工厂、组建本地团队等举措，已形成“1+4”全球布局，覆盖60+国家和地区。2025年公司海外案例数增长82.1%，收入增长102.5%，与隐适美的全球案例数差距从13.1倍缩至4.9倍，全球份额从4.5%提升至10.6%。公司采取“高举高打”战略，在欧美通过攻克学术KOL、获取MDR认证构建临床信任，在巴西以并购+技术赋能深耕，在澳新转向直销模式。股东松柏投资拥有全球牙科产业资源，持续赋能出海。我们认为，时代天使凭借差异化策略和本地化...

OpenAI完成大额融资，国产视频模型维持强势，布局大模型及AI广告/漫剧OpenAI于3.31宣布完成最新一轮1220亿美元金额的融资，其中英伟达/软银/亚马逊分别投资300/300/500亿美元，投后估值达8520亿美元。OpenAI还透露其2025年收入/当前月收入分别达131/20亿美元，广告试点项目在六周时间内ARR就超过1亿美元，后续将聚焦打造“AI超级应用”——能理解意图、执行操作及跨应用、数据、工作流运行的单一系统。此外，火山引擎于4.2宣布，截至2026.3，豆包大模型日均Token使用量超120万亿，在过去三个月内增长一倍，比2024.5发布时日均水平增长1000倍，其核心驱动因素是AI视频创作的爆发与AI智能体的加速普及。而据AI产品榜，3月国产AI视频模型用户量延续高增长，可灵以20.68%登顶国内增速榜，PixVerse出海增长15.28%，即梦AI以7994万月活（+12.88%）跻身全球总榜第10。受益于视频模型持续进步，AI漫剧商业化加快，并有望加大海外AI广告买量，昆仑万维2月海外短剧收入近3亿元，快手漫剧3.30日消耗破2000万新高。另外，工信部于4.2发布《关于开展普惠算力赋能中小企业发展专项行动的通知》，首次明确提出探索“算力银行、算力超市”等创新业务，支持中小企业存入闲置算力资源，通过跨区域、跨周期调度实现灵活取用，或进一步推动AIDC、边缘算力云发展加速。我们认为，OpenAI大额融资或继续加剧模型能力竞争，国产模型在视频生成/Coding/Agent等方面的持续进步，将继续拉动模型Token、算力云需求高增，并推动AI广告/漫剧等AI应用商业化加速，建议继续布局AI。（1）大模型：重点推荐腾讯控股、快手，受益标的包括智谱、Minimax、阿里巴巴、昆仑万维；（2）AI广告：重点推荐汇量科技；（3）AI漫剧/短剧：重点推荐阅文集团，受益标的包括中文在线、华策影视；（4）AI音乐/社交：重点推荐网易云音乐，受益标的包括盛天网络；（5）AIDC/算力云：重点推荐顺网科技，受益标的包括浙数文化。 《异环》《王者荣耀世界》4月上线开启新一轮重磅新品周期，继续布局游戏腾讯基于王者荣耀IP打造的多人冒险RPG游戏《王者荣耀世界》、恺英网络自研自发的国战SLG手游《三国：天下归心》及完美世界旗下二次元超自然都市开放世界游戏《异环》将分...

本周核心关注 特斯拉Optimus V3人形机器人计划于2026年夏季启动量产，2027年剑指年产百万台。V3在执行器、灵巧手、感知系统与电控方面实现从原型到量产的全面升级：谐波减速器用量随关节自由度提升而增加，灵巧手自由度增至22个并采用“行星齿轮箱+微型滚珠丝杠+腱绳”复合传动方案，触觉传感器向全域电子皮肤演进，同时有望在关节电控中突破性应用氮化镓。国内潜在供应商涉及谐波减速器（斯菱智驱、科达利）、灵巧手（鸣志电器、伟创电气、兆威机电）、微型丝杠（恒立液压、北特科技、五洲新春）、电子皮肤（汉威科技、日盈电子）等。 行业重点新闻 （1）乘联分会：3月全国乘用车零售165.7万辆，同比下降15%；（2）乘联分会：3月新能源批发预估112万辆，同比持平；（3）北京启动智能网联新能源汽车商业保险开发应用；（4）大众汽车与大众汽车（安徽）、一汽-大众签署经销商网络战略合作备忘录；（5）四川发布电车充电设施建设方案，到2027年底在全省范围内建成205万个充电设施；（6）赛力斯发布第五代2.0T超级增程技术；（7）奇瑞与路虎联合发布神行者新品牌5年推6款新车；（8）新能源汽车动力电池回收新规今日起正式实施，标志着我国动力电池回收利用进入全链条规范化管理阶段；（9）奔驰将投40亿美元扩产美国工厂以规避关税。 行情回顾 （1）本周沪深300指数跌幅1.37%，其中汽车板块跌幅1.38%，涨跌幅位居A股一级行业第9位。（2）本周乘用车Ⅱ指数跌幅4.63%，江淮汽车、小米集团-W领涨。（3）本周商用车指数涨幅5.76%，宇通客车、中国重汽领涨。（4）本周汽车零部件Ⅱ指数跌幅1.56%，菱电电控、华培动力领涨。细分看，电控系统涨跌幅-1.64%；轴承涨跌幅-1.38%，襄阳轴承、南方精工领涨；减速机/齿轮类涨跌幅-3.57%，斯菱智驱领涨；轻量化&结构件涨跌幅-0.66%，华达科技、恒勃股份领涨；电机涨跌幅-1.87%，征和工业、英博尔领涨；Tier1涨跌幅-0.09%，均胜电子、敏实集团领涨；传感器涨跌幅-1.60%，华培动力、日盈电子领涨；直线传动部件涨跌幅0.47%，嵘泰股份、贝斯特领涨。 投资建议 （1）乘用车：国内新能源乘用车加速开辟欧洲、拉美、东南亚等市场，业绩有望迎来放量，推荐：比亚迪，受益标的：吉利汽车、零跑汽车。 （2）零部件：行业反内卷背景下，盈利能力有望拐点向上...