Heavy rain failed to put a dampener on the hopes of punters trying their luck on Hong Kong’s Mark Six lottery on Saturday, with the estimated first prize of HK$80 million in an Easter snowball draw. According to the Hong Kong Jockey Club, as Saturday night’s draw will carry a snowball of HK$63 million (US$8 million), the estimated first division prize fund is HK$80 million. Domestic helpers Gigi a...
Heavy rain failed to put a dampener on the hopes of punters trying their luck on Hong Kong’s Mark Six lottery on Saturday, with the estimated first prize of HK$80 million in an Easter snowball draw. According to the Hong Kong Jockey Club, as Saturday night’s draw will carry a snowball of HK$63 million (US$8 million), the estimated first division prize fund is HK$80 million. Domestic helpers Gigi and Leila were among dozens placing bets at the Stanley Street betting outlet in Central. They...
As online betting has grown in popularity, a new report from the New York Federal Reserve builds on the troubling link between legal sports wagering and financial health. (Image credit: Charlie Riedel)
As online betting has grown in popularity, a new report from the New York Federal Reserve builds on the troubling link between legal sports wagering and financial health. (Image credit: Charlie Riedel)
chameleonseye/iStock Editorial via Getty Images At first glance, based on the fact that Microsoft ' s ( MSFT ) fundamentals still look like a textbook high-quality name ( and show no clear deterioration in recent quarters ), a pullback may look like an obvious opportunity. But I’m not convinced the story is that straightforward. Since I wrote my last article on MSFT in October last year, the stock...
chameleonseye/iStock Editorial via Getty Images At first glance, based on the fact that Microsoft ' s ( MSFT ) fundamentals still look like a textbook high-quality name ( and show no clear deterioration in recent quarters ), a pullback may look like an obvious opportunity. But I’m not convinced the story is that straightforward. Since I wrote my last article on MSFT in October last year, the stock has plummeted by about 29%. Data by YCharts But at that moment, prior to FQ1, I had outlined the following bear case: Bearish case: Azure slowing to below 35%, below guidance, slower AI monetization, and excessive CapEx (15% increase QoQ) pressuring margins to ~42% or less. Copilot and E5 are stagnant, and Q2 guidance is conservative. EPS rising below ~11% YoY. The consequence would be forward earnings in the ~30x range, close to the floor, and a potential downside of 15%. In short, the bear case did not materialize in either FQ1 or FQ2, but it came close in spirit. The growth of Azure falling below 35%, or the sharp drop in EPS, was not what actually materialized. In fact, the headline numbers remained quite strong. But there was relative frustration vs. high expectations. The problem was more subtle than I anticipated. Instead, the market received a set of results that added more complexity than clarity—especially in terms of capital allocation. The contribution of AI within Azure and the timing of the accelerating CapEx cycle have also been detrimental to the MSFT trajectory in recent months. So I would say that the question to be answered in FQ3 is not only whether AI will drive Microsoft, but when, and how clear that will show up in the numbers. The Two-Act AI Story Essentially, I would say that the performance of Microsoft stock today basically revolves around two key factors: (1) monetization of the AI infrastructure (including Azure and CapEx efficiency); and (2) monetization of AI at the application layer (including Copilot and pricing power Dynamics). To make it ...