Patrickistock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images On 20 March 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. ( ZGN ) released its 2025 numbers. As usual, we are back to comment on the quarterly results and 2026 expectations. In our last assessment, we reported how Zegna’s share price approached our valuation range, leaving limited upside. This was a positive call, even if we were lucky to report a neutral rate before...
Patrickistock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images On 20 March 2026, Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. ( ZGN ) released its 2025 numbers. As usual, we are back to comment on the quarterly results and 2026 expectations. In our last assessment, we reported how Zegna’s share price approached our valuation range, leaving limited upside. This was a positive call, even if we were lucky to report a neutral rate before the escalation in the Middle East (Fig. 1 with -5.37% since early Jan 2026). On a fundamental basis, our neutral view was driven by ongoing restructuring at Thom Browne, continued weakness in the wholesale channel, the absence of supportive trends in Greater China, and management’s reference to a “new normal” rather than a near-term rebound. This proved a more cautious outlook in our estimates. Mare Ev. Lab Rating Update Fig 1 Zegna Results and Our Neutral View Starting with the 2025 numbers, the company reported solid results (even relative to peers). Thanks to our cross-coverage analysis in Sanlorenzo , 2025 luxury revenues trended down by an average of 3.7%, while Zegna reported top-line sales of €1.91 billion (Fig. 2), down 1.5% year-over-year but up 1.1% on an organic basis. Divisionally, the company reported higher sales generation in the core brand (+4.7%) and Tom Ford (+3.1%). Thom Browne's revenues and the textile segments were down 12.2% organically and 3.1%, respectively. Zegna reported a higher gross profit margin, thanks to its core brand having a higher MIX and a higher direct-to-consumer channel, rising to 82% at a 67.5% margin. SG&A increased due to 1) higher personnel expenses and IT costs, 2) network expansion, and 3) a negative $10 million one-off on expected losses in the trade receivables. For this reason, the 2025 adjusted EBIT declined to €162.9 million from €184 million achieved in 2024. Thanks to solid FCF generation and sales of Temasek treasury shares, the company achieved a positive net financial position of €52 million. Going down to the P&L, Z...
Pop Mart International Group Ltd. shares fell as much as 9.7% after analysts cut price targets and downgraded their outlooks, citing signs of slowing overseas momentum and growing reliance on the company’s Labubu franchise in its full-year results. The Chinese pop toy maker’s stock dropped up to HK$152 ($19.4) in early Hong Kong trading. The decline follows a record 23% slump on Wednesday. “Overal...
Pop Mart International Group Ltd. shares fell as much as 9.7% after analysts cut price targets and downgraded their outlooks, citing signs of slowing overseas momentum and growing reliance on the company’s Labubu franchise in its full-year results. The Chinese pop toy maker’s stock dropped up to HK$152 ($19.4) in early Hong Kong trading. The decline follows a record 23% slump on Wednesday. “Overall, we see downside to FY26 consensus expectations,” Bernstein analyst Melinda Hu wrote in a note. She pointed to decelerating growth, high intellectual property concentration and “speculative capital deployment” as risks to valuation. Morgan Stanley cut its 2026-2027 earnings estimates by 4%, while UBS cut its price target by 15% to HK$278. Pop Mart’s revenue surged 185% to 37.1 billion yuan ($5.4 billion) in 2025, narrowly missing the 38 billion yuan consensus, the Chinese pop toy maker reported Wednesday. The selloff came despite a 309% surge in net income to 12.8 billion yuan, which was slightly above the forecast of 12.6 billion yuan. Pop Mart’s second-half revenue growth likely missed expectations of institutional investors, with a sharp fourth-quarter slowdown fueling “concern on the durability” of its top franchises, said Jeff Zhang , an analyst at Morningstar Inc. He cited a reduction in the dividend payout ratio to 25% in 2025 from 35% in 2024 as “another negative.” Pop Mart has leaned on the global appeal of Labubu, the snaggle-toothed monster doll that has become a worldwide collectible phenomenon and remains its primary growth driver. The company is now seeking to diversify its intellectual property portfolio and sustain momentum through new releases, positioning emerging characters such as Twinkle Twinkle as standalone draws with their own fan bases rather than alternatives to Labubu. “Pop Mart has more than just Labubu,” Chief Executive Officer Wang Ning said in a post-earnings call, seeking to reassure the market. He acknowledged the strain of meeting soaring...
Lighthouse Films/DigitalVision via Getty Images Since I last issued a Buy rating for Fortinet ( FTNT ) in September last year, there has been a wider sell-off in the SaaS and cybersecurity space with some stocks like Zscaler correcting by up to 50%. The corrections have been severe, and most of these stocks are not in a mood to revert anytime soon - unless long-duration growth assumptions get more...
Lighthouse Films/DigitalVision via Getty Images Since I last issued a Buy rating for Fortinet ( FTNT ) in September last year, there has been a wider sell-off in the SaaS and cybersecurity space with some stocks like Zscaler correcting by up to 50%. The corrections have been severe, and most of these stocks are not in a mood to revert anytime soon - unless long-duration growth assumptions get more certainties around how the evolved landscape will be in a native AI world. Fortinet has been flat since the time of my September thesis, resilient through this sell-off. This thesis review looks at Fortinet in this evolved regime where pricing pressures and competitive moat are being viewed differently to see whether Fortinet's resilience is accidental and whether the Buy rating is still valid, or whether a sell-off is simply delayed. My analysis shows that most of the factors that I was bullish on in September have only strengthened since then, and Fortinet's resilience is actually structural. In fact, one of the key drags in September was firewall cycle concerns - growth drivers now seem to have shifted toward platform-led expansion across SASE, AI and SecOps, further strengthening the Buy thesis. Why Fortinet Has Held Up The chart below shows how the cybersecurity pack has sold off across the board, while Fortinet is just down ~5% over the past 6 months. The reasons for this relative outperformance start from valuations. For high-growth and SaaS-heavy players like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Zscaler, valuations were elevated (and still remain premium even after corrections). As growth expectations normalized and AI-related disruption risks emerged, these higher multiple names saw sharper multiple compression. In contrast, names like Fortinet, Okta and Check Point were already trading at more reasonable valuations, limiting the extent of further de-rating. Data by YCharts Forward PE within Cybersecurity Peers (Seeking Alpha) The AI disruption we are talking about today is...