AI作为社交对象对人类社会的颠覆性影响现在还不显著，但未来将会成为一个更大的问题。 人类是社会性动物，社交对每个人和整个社会都很重要。 社交是社会网络的编织机。通过家庭、朋友、同事等关系的建立，个体被连接成一个个小群体，小群体再交织成大社会。从远古狩猎的沟通协作，到现代社会的分工合作、市场的交易、社会秩序的维护，都离不开人的社会、社交属性。更进一步对于我们人类物种而言，社交令人类可以用集体智慧和力量参与生态位竞争，构成了我们祖先的进化优势。这种“合作基因”被自然选择强化，深深嵌入我们的DNA。社交还是基因传递的桥梁：寻找伴侣、组建家庭、集体养育后代，确保文化与血脉延续。有了社交，人类文明才能绵绵不息。 社交对我们的身心健康、家庭幸福有重要的影响。通过社交反馈，我们确认价值、角色和信念。分享喜悦能放大快乐，分担忧愁能减半痛苦。高质量关系如同“情绪缓冲器”，帮助我们对抗存在性焦虑，在无常生命中通过家庭、文化、共同目标找到归属与目的感。很多研究都表明，有良好社会连接的人往往寿命更长，如根据2023年发表在《Nature》上的一项研究，社交隔离人群的全因死亡风险较一般人群增加32%；另一项针对中国老年人的研究，与“经常参加社交活动”的老年人相比，“从不参加任何社交活动”的老年人，患抑郁症状的风险高45%；哈佛大学一项长期跟踪研究（超过80年）的结论是亲密关系是预测长期幸福和健康的“单一最重要因素”，而不是财富、智商或社会地位。 社交也是学习与成长的重要场所。从婴儿模仿父母表情，到学生向老师提问，再到职场头脑风暴，知识、技能、观点都在互动中高速迭代。我们通过与他人互动学会推测他人意图，这是复杂合作与预测行为的基石。没有社交，人的认知发展将严重受限。 总体而言，社交至关重要，是刚需中的刚需。是人类身心健康、个人成长、社会协作、种族繁衍的重要媒介。 那么，我们的问题是，当AI掌握了类似人的智能和沟通能力，能否取代人作为社交对象，参与到和人的社交中去？ AI对人的替代 人与AI的社交关系，特别是构建情感关系、亲密关系，是科幻作品经久不衰的选题。科幻作家或导演常借助AI这种极端化的社交对象来探讨什么是“人”、爱与情感的本质、何为自由意志等议题。近年来最有寓言意义的佳作是2013年的《Her》，影片的主人公在婚姻破裂、对真实社交生活失望后，逐渐沉溺于与名为Samantha的AI语音助手...

Tyson Foods Inc. reported first-quarter earnings that slightly beat analyst estimates as higher beef pricing and continued chicken demand offset pressure from limited cattle supplies. The country’s largest meatpacker saw adjusted earnings per share of 97 cents in the first quarter, down 15% from the prior year but beating analyst estimates of 95 cents. While higher beef prices supported overall sales, Tyson’s largest segment continues to struggle with the US’s ongoing cattle shortage. Tyson’s beef business reported a $143 million adjusted operating loss in the quarter, worse than analysts expected, though a 17% increase in pricing supported year-over-year sales growth. The company, in a move meant to turn around the segment, said it would close a Nebraska beef plant and reduced a Texas facility to a single shift. The company maintained its outlook for the year, but narrowed its expected operating loss in its beef segment to $250 million to $500 million, from a prior forecast of $400 million to $600 million. Read More: More US Beef Plants May Close as Cattle Herds Keep Shrinking A domestic cattle shortage has left meat processors paying higher prices for the animals needed to keep plants operating at minimum levels, crunching margins even as the Trump administration calls the industry out for inflating meat prices . Tyson’s plant closure is expected to cool cattle prices by reducing competition for supplies, though prices are still forecast to rise year-over-year, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The US cattle herd remained at a 75-year low as of Jan. 1, nearly unchanged from the prior year, the USDA said Friday. The ongoing halt to Mexican live cattle shipments to prevent the spread of a deadly parasite is also limiting supplies. Still, meat companies have benefited from a broader protein craze among consumers, which is only seen accelerating after the US’s new dietary guidelines flipped the food pyramid to prioritize protein. Record retail beef prices...

內地春運展開，一連40日，首日有約1.8億人次。有民眾避開高峰提早回鄉。廣州白雲機場預計首天，服務逾1600架次航班。工作人員更悉心裝扮，增加節日氣氛。 在廣州白雲機場，有旅客排隊辦理登機手續，安檢人員換上漢服、化身「捕快」，亦有民族舞蹈表演，營造春節氣氛。 廣州市民李小姐表示：「我們提前很多就搶(機票)，提前就規劃了，玩一個星期，主要帶老人小孩去北京參觀一下，之後再回家，熱熱鬧鬧過新年。」 成都市民夏小姐指出：「機票還好，除了越後買越貴之外，沒有其他問題，我們坐高鐵可能要七至九個小時，太久了，飛機可能兩個半小時，孩子肯定坐不了那麼久，昨天放假、今天就回去，放假就陪一下父母，因為長年在廣州比較多一點。」 上海市民鄭小姐說：「能買票的第一刻就買吧，希望第一時間能回家，感覺(人流)還沒到那個高點，一路上都順利，就是路上開始有點堵車。」 根據中國民航局預測，今年民航春運旅客運量達9,500萬人次，有望創歷史新高，平均每天處理近兩萬航班。白雲機場預計，年廿三至年廿八，以及初三至初十三是客流高峰期，最多可達29萬人次。 白雲機場運行控制中心副主任馮雨佳稱：「我們在春運期間加開了相關服務通道，重點針對晚到旅客或其他特殊服務旅客，我們會有工作人員即時指引旅客前往相關通道，快速辦理安檢手續。」 機場客運大樓亦設有花市，讓旅客選購心儀花束，不過如要將大盆栽捧上飛機，可能就要自己想想辦法。

2026年春节临近，AI红包战打得热火朝天：百度发5亿红包，阿里砸出30亿“请客计划”，腾讯元宝投入10亿打造AI社交场景，字节则将豆包送上春晚主舞台。 热闹背后，是平台之间一次罕见的“正面对撞”：谁能抢下用户“第一次用AI”的场景，就可能赢得AI时代的超级入口。 十年前，微信靠红包大战绑定用户、改写支付格局。今天，大模型技术催生的新一代AI应用也在寻找类似的破局点。但问题是，红包能让人进来，谁又能留下他们？ “AI时代的微信”，靠的不是砸钱，而是能否成为用户每天都会打开、用得上、用得顺的刚需工具。这场战役，才刚刚开始。 01 为什么都要在春节期间砸钱？ 每年春节，都是一场互联网流量争夺战。而今年这场仗，比往年来得更早、更猛，也更“烧脑”。 1月25日，百度率先出招，宣布旗下AI应用“文心一言”将于1月26日启动春节红包活动，用户可参与瓜分5亿元现金红包，单个红包最高金额达1万元，并在北京电视台春晚中上线多种AI互动玩法。 2月1日，腾讯跟进推出“元宝春节红包”，上线即宣布投入10亿元补贴，单个红包金额同样可达万元，并同步上线AI社交功能“元宝派”，用户可创建AI群聊，通过邀请微信、QQ好友加入，实现AI二创、问答互动等功能。 2月2日，阿里千问App宣布将启动“春节请客计划”，投入金额高达30亿元，并将于2月6日正式上线。活动覆盖淘宝、飞猪、盒马、大麦、天猫超市、支付宝等阿里系多个平台，以“免单”形式请全国人民吃喝玩乐。同时，千问还官宣成为江苏卫视春晚赞助方。 字节跳动方面，旗下云和AI技术平台火山引擎拿到了2026年中央电视台春节联欢晚会独家AI云合作伙伴，“豆包”将嵌入晚会互动环节，承担部分AI互动玩法。尽管豆包尚未上线明确的春节推广计划，但其“春晚主舞台的曝光资源”已占据C位。 短短一周时间，四大平台集中出招，直接把春节红包这场仗打成了AI产品的“首秀战”。据公开数据统计，腾讯、阿里、百度三家的补贴总额已超过45亿元，这还不包括字节春晚合作所需的大额预算和豆包的配套资源倾斜。 看起来是在砸钱抢热度，实际上是在抢一个关键位置：谁能在这个春节，把“第一次用AI”的机会，植入自家App中。 为什么是春节？因为这是中国互联网用户流动最密集、行为最容易迁移的时间节点。十年前，微信正是靠春节红包大战一战成名，把用户牢牢绑定在微信支付上；如今，各家AI应用试图复刻这条路径...

Last week, a district judge in San Francisco, California, presided over a three-day trial brought by west coast fishers and conservationists against US tyre companies. The fishers allege that a chemical additive used in tyres is polluting rivers and waterways, killing coho salmon and other fish. If successful, the case could have implications far beyond the United States. How did the case come about? The case was initiated after the apparent solving of a decades-old mystery: what was causing mass deaths of endangered coho salmon in the Pacific north-west as they returned to streams to spawn. The deaths happened after heavy rain. Before dying, the fish would exhibit unusual behaviour, swimming in circles, their mouths gaping, as if gasping for air. Scientists, suspecting storm runoff, described the phenomenon as “urban runoff mortality syndrome”. It took years for scientists from Washington State University to pinpoint what they now allege is the chemical culprit. In 2020, they published a study in Science that claimed to solve the mystery: they found a toxic substance in leachate from car tyres that killed the fish. Known as 6PPD-quinone or 6PPD-q, it is an oxidation product from 6PPD, a chemical added to car tyres to prevent them breaking down. This transformed chemical, 6PPD-q, leaches into rivers and creeks with, scientists say, devastating results for the protected and endangered species. Who brought the case and why? The case was brought by the Institute for Fisheries Resources (IFR) and the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations (PCFFA) represented by environmental group, Earthjustice, after a slew of scientific studies linking mass deaths of coho salmon and harms to other salmon with a chemical tyre additive, 6PPD. The fishers say they depend on the health of salmon populations for their livelihood. Glen Spain, general legal counsel and northwest regional director of the IFR and the PCFFA, said: “The use of 6PPD in tyres has been shown to harm v...

Last week we saw a plethora of important earnings results and increased market volatility. This wee should be another busy one with a lot of important companies due to report. This week we have Amazon (AMZN), Palantir (PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOGL), PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Uber Technologies (UBER), Disney (DIS) and Merck (MRK) all reporting in what shapes as a busy and pivotal week for stocks. Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the market is unsure about the outcome of the report. Speculators and hedgers create huge demand for the company’s options which increases the implied volatility, and therefore, the price of options. After the earnings announcement, implied volatility usually drops back down to normal levels. Let’s take a look at the expected range for these stocks. To calculate the expected range, look up the option chain and add together the price of the at-the-money put option and the at-the-money call option. Use the first expiry date after the earnings date. While this approach is not as accurate as a detailed calculation, it does serve as a reasonably accurate estimate. Monday PLTR – 10.4% DIS – 6.3% Tuesday AMD – 8.8% PYPL – 8.4% PFE – 3.3% PEP – 3.9% MRK – 4.7% CMG – 9.7% Wednesday GOOGL – 6.2% LLY – 6.5% NVO – 7.8% UBER – 7.2% QCOM – 6.5% ARM – 9.2% BSX – 5.0% ABBV – 4.5% Thursday AMZN – 7.5% MSTR – 8.7% RBLX – 15.6% B – 8.5% COP – 4.1% BMY – 4.5% FTNT – 10.1% Friday Nothing of note Option traders can use these expected moves to structure trades. Bearish traders can look at selling bear call spreads outside the expected range. Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range, or look at naked puts for those with a higher risk tolerance. Neutral traders can look at iron condors. When trading iron condors over earnings, it is best to keep the short strikes outside the expected range. When trading options over earnings, it is best to stick to risk defined strateg...

SPRINGDALE, Ark., Feb. 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN), one of the world’s largest food companies and a recognized leader in protein with leading brands including Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells, ibp and State Fair, reported the following results: (in millions, except per share data) First Quarter 2026 2025 Sales $ 14,313 $ 13,623 Operating Income $ 302 $ 580 Adjusted1 Operating Income (non-GAAP) $ 572 $ 659 Net Income Per Share Attributable to Tyson $ 0.24 $ 1.01 Adjusted1 Net Income Per Share Attributable to Tyson (non-GAAP) $ 0.97 $ 1.14 1 The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). As used in this table and throughout this earnings release, adjusted operating income (loss), adjusted net income per share attributable to Tyson (Adjusted EPS), segment operating income (loss), as adjusted, corporate expenses, as adjusted and amortization, as adjusted, are non-GAAP financial measures. Refer to the end of this release for an explanation and reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures used in this release to comparable GAAP measures. First Quarter Highlights Sales of $14,313 million, up 5.1% from prior yea r; Sales up 6.2% excluding impact of $150 million increase in legal contingency accruals, which was recognized as a reduction to Sales GAAP operating income of $302 million, down 48% from prior year Adjusted operating income of $572 million, down 13% from prior year GAAP EPS of $0.24, down 76% from prior year Adjusted EPS of $0.97, down 15% from prior year Total Company GAAP operating margin of 2.1% Total Company adjusted operating margin (non-GAAP) of 4.0% Liquidity of $4.5 billion as of December 27, 2025 Cash provided by operating activities of $942 million, down $89 million from prior year Free cash flow (non-GAAP) of $690 million, down $70 million from prior year Reduced total debt $468 million "Our first quarter result...

For years, one credit-ratings firm has handed out the most favorable grades to corporate borrowers in the Canadian bond market: Morningstar DBRS. On average, its ratings are one full notch higher than those assigned by S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings. So when companies, eager to cut costs, suddenly started issuing a raft of bonds with only a single credit rating — instead of the two or three that had long been the norm — the firm they tapped, time and again, to assign them was DBRS. There were 111 such deals in 2025, more than the total from the previous two years combined, and several more in January. DBRS handled more than 80% of them, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The surge in single-rated sales helped DBRS deepen its dominance in Canada and rake in revenue for its credit division, an area that that’s become the fastest-growing business line for its parent company, Morningstar Inc. But as the Canadian bond market heats up and cash-flush investors take on more and more risk — including by buying bonds that don’t provide at least two independent ratings — the practice is also raising concern that DBRS is helping fan a credit boom that could lead to excesses and losses down the road. These are similar to the worries that have emerged in frothy credit markets across the globe and triggered warnings from regulators and investors about the revival of the kind of ratings shopping — where borrowers hire the raters with the rosiest outlooks — that helped spark so many painful blowups before. Pimco’s Ivascyn Warns of a ‘Dangerous’ Credit-Ratings Dynamic Private Credit Ratings Face Fresh Scrutiny From Global Watchdogs Pension Fund Slams Private Market Ratings After €1 Billion Loss “One way to win business is just to give better ratings,” says Bill Harrington , a senior fellow with the nonprofit Croatan Institute in New York who analyzes credit ratings on swaps and securitized loans. Upon looking at the Canadian credit ratings data, Harrington, who s...

Tekmerion Capital Management is spinning out its macro hedge fund from Brevan Howard Asset Management with commitments of more than $1 billion, including continued support from initial backers Michael Novogratz and Alan Howard . The investment firm, led by Zachary Squire and Reed Morrissey , will relaunch the fund later this year, a spokesperson said. The spinout is also backed by multistrategy hedge fund Engineers Gate . “If you look at a world right now, it’s a macro chessboard,” said Novogratz, head of Galaxy Digital Inc. and an investor in Tekmerion since its launch in 2017. Systematic macro traders like Tekmerion “that catch big paradigm shifts without the same emotion discretionary traders have are well positioned,” he said. Howard, best known as Brevan Howard’s billionaire co-founder, has also been an investor since 2017 and will continue to be one following the spinout, according to people familiar with his plans who asked not to be named. The move reverses Tekmerion’s decision to go in-house at Brevan Howard after less than two years. Meanwhile, the $35 billion hedge fund firm is working on simplifying its structure, making its Master Fund the main vehicle through which its traders take macro risk. It recently decided to return capital from the fund run by its star trader Fash Golchin, who will instead focus on managing money exclusively for the firm’s flagship strategy, Bloomberg reported . Engineers Gate is coming in as a strategic partner to Tekmerion and will provide the firm with capital, infrastructure support and office space. Since its founding 12 years ago, Engineers Gate has evolved from a small collection of equity-oriented quantitative strategies into a diversified investment platform with more than $5 billion in assets. “Tekmerion’s data-driven, hybrid systematic approach makes it a natural fit for our portfolio,” Greg Eisner , chief executive officer of Engineers Gate, said in a statement. Squire and Morrissey previously managed a commodity tr...

For those seeking predictable, reliable income from their retirement portfolios, Vanguard offers three great high-yield ETFs that do the job. For the past three years, investors have been loading up on the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.43%), tech stocks, and the "Magnificent Seven." High-yield equity strategies haven't gotten a whole lot of interest, especially when the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is producing huge returns in semiconductor and other AI-adjacent areas of the market. That has changed a bit as we kick off 2026. Tech has turned into only an average performer, while recent laggards, such as energy, materials, value, small-cap, and dividend stocks, have done very well. That's good news for income seekers and retirement investors, who have seen limited opportunities for outperformance lately but are suddenly looking at a more favorable environment now. Vanguard has a number of intriguing ETFs that could fill in the high-yield slot in a retirement portfolio. Currently offering yields of up to 4%, here are three that deserve a look. 1. Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM +0.32%) is one of the cornerstones of the Vanguard dividend ETF lineup. Its simple strategy of targeting above-average yields from a broad universe of stocks provides the kind of diversified portfolio that investors can buy and hold for retirement. Expand NYSEMKT : VYM Vanguard Whitehall Funds - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Today's Change ( 0.32 %) $ 0.48 Current Price $ 149.96 Key Data Points Day's Range $ 148.41 - $ 150.10 52wk Range $ 112.05 - $ 150.50 Volume 316 One of the advantages of this fund is that it's market cap-weighted. Some similar funds will yield-weight their portfolios. While that increases the amount of income the ETF will produce, it also exposes investors to the risk that some of these high yields are vulnerable to cuts, or they're the product of price declines. This ETF doesn't do that, which means the yield may be slightly more conse...

Key Points Insiders sold stocks in January, with high-flyers like CoreWeave, Urban Outfitters, and Kratos Defense & Security the most heavily sold. Insider selling may limit near-term gains, but fundamentally bullish stories underpin price action. Early 2026 price pullbacks are opening buying opportunities for patient investors. Insiders rang in 2026 by selling shares of CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (NASDAQ: KTOS). Investors beware—the selling activity aligns with technical market tops, which capped gains in 2025 and will likely pressure markets in 2026. The silver lining is that each of these names has a bullish story underpinning its long-term price action. Near-term pressures, including insider selling, cap gains today, but price pullbacks present buying opportunities in these stocks. The question is how deep the pullbacks may go and what might put a bottom in their markets, leading to a rebound in stock prices. CoreWeave Insider Selling Pressures Weaken in Early 2026 CoreWeave is among the most-sold stocks by insiders in 2025, and the trend has continued into January 2026. InsiderTrades data reveals significant selling in Q3 and Q4 2025, followed by another, albeit smaller, dump in early Q1 2026. Insiders selling include the CEO, founders, and technology officers, all of whom have considerable exposure due to share-based compensation, early investments, and/or founder status. The risk to investors is that their activity aligns with a series of lower market tops, representing significant hurdles for the market. Each can be expected to trigger volatility as short-term owners take profits and long-term owners cut losses. On the side, market support is solid. CoreWeave’s institutional activity reveals that institutions, hedge funds, and private equity own about 50% of the shares and have bought on balance since the company's IPO. The balance in early 2026 is $10 bought for each $1 sold, providing ...

2026年初 ，章泽天带着个人播客 “小天章”低调 入驻小宇宙 、 小红书 平台 ，却意外因其首期与刘嘉玲对谈时被指 “ 接不住话 ” 、 “ 互动生硬 ” 而引发热议。 图源：小红书 这场围绕主持功力的讨论，其声量甚至一度盖过了节目内容本身，折射出播客行业的现状：如今的播客已不再是圈地自萌的私人花园，而是置身于大众审视下的流量新地。 在章泽天之前，罗永浩、陈鲁豫、于谦等知名人物也纷纷开设个人播客，他们的节目切片在社交网络上被广泛传播。 这股“名人潮”并非简单跟风，它像一个清晰的信号，标志着播客正彻底告别早期“发烧友俱乐部”或文艺青年专属的刻板标签，在平台的大力推动和名人流量的裹挟下，加速驶向大众日常娱乐与信息获取的广阔海域。 01 生态扩容：从“声音角落”到“视听战场” 前面提到，近一年不少名人纷纷跨界开设个人博客的风潮，常被视为行业兴起或是进入新阶段的信号。但若细察便会发现，名人的入场更像是一个“结果”而非“原因”。 真正推动这股“名人潮”的底层动力，是播客赖以生存的平台生态，经历了一场从边缘到中心、从单一到融合的深刻扩容与激烈竞争。这片曾经的“声音角落”，如今已演变为各大互联网平台重兵布局、短兵相接的“视听战场”。 要知道，过去的中文播客常带着“小而美”与“为爱发电”的标签，栖息于少数独立应用之中。然而，当声音的陪伴价值与深度连接能力被重新挖掘，尤其是其汇聚的高学历、高线城市、高消费意愿的优质用户群成为各方垂涎的“流量洼地”时，战局便彻底改变了。 根据《CPA中文播客白皮书2026》显示，2025年中文播客听众人数已突破1.5亿人，较2023年的1.2亿增长25%，2027年中文播客听众规模有望突破1.8亿；IMARC也预测，中国播客市场到2034年或将增长至30.48亿美元。 巨大的增长潜力让任何平台都无法忽视。于是，2025年的播客赛道风起云涌，喜马拉雅、B站、小红书等纷纷以视频播客概念开始布局。 例如，手握大量优质音频资源的喜马拉雅，正积极将播客“视频化”。其与太平洋产险联合打造的国内首档播客视频化节目《行走的思考》，以“行走”为线索，深入6位不同行业嘉宾的职业与生活。 图源：喜马拉雅 该视频播客上线48小时播放量突破33万，23天突破400万，50天即超过1000万。最后一期节目播出时，实现全网总曝光2.28亿、总播放量1870万。不仅实现了播放量与品...

在生成式 AI 时代，AI 正从底层重构生产力与商业逻辑，而 GEO 与智能体的深度应用，正成为企业实现增长的核心引擎。

格隆汇2月2日丨甲骨文股价盘前由跌转涨，此前一度下跌5%。

阿联酋王室与美国总统特朗普的儿子埃里克（前排左）签署协议，向特朗普家族企业世界自由金融注资数亿美元。这家公司的联合创始人之一是特朗普中东问题特使威特科夫的儿子扎克（前排右）。 （路透社档案照片） （旧金山综合讯）美国媒体披露，阿拉伯联合酋长国王室去年秘密与美国总统特朗普家族达成投资协议，花费数亿美元收购后者加密货币公司的近半股权。这笔交易在美国政坛开创先例，引发伦理专家和美国民主党人担忧。 《华尔街日报》上周六（1月31日）报道，这笔投资由阿联酋国家安全顾问塔农支持，特朗普儿子埃里克签署协议。 塔农是阿联酋总统穆罕默德的弟弟，并且掌管阿联酋最大的主权财富基金。他积极游说美国，以获取高度保密的人工智能晶片。 据报道，双方早在特朗普去年1月就职典礼之前就达成协议，阿联酋方面出资5亿美元（约6亿4000万新元），收购特朗普家族加密货币公司世界自由金融49%的股权。塔农的两名高级助手则加入这家公司的董事会。 另有至少3100万美元将流向特朗普中东问题特使威特科夫的家族关联实体。他是世界自由金融的联合创始人。 世界自由金融发言人上周日（2月1日）证实这笔投资。“我们达成这项交易，是因为坚信它对公司持续发展最为有利。” 这是首次有外国政府官员入股美国当选总统的公司，而特朗普当前正与阿联酋就外交政策进行磋商。 《纽约时报》报道，这笔交易模糊了政府与私营企业的界限。马萨诸塞州民主党参议员沃伦称之为“腐败行为”，批评特朗普家族、维特科夫及其商业伙伴“为谋取总统加密货币公司的利益，出卖美国国家安全”。

J.P. Morgan expects gold prices to reach $6,300/oz by end of 2026 Reuters

US equity futures drop as a continued slump in gold and silver hits stocks. Oil declines as the US and Iran signal hopes for deescalating tensions. Oracle announces plans to raise as much as $50 billion this year to build additional cloud infrastructure capacity. Dtek CEO Maxim Timchenko says a drone strike that killed more than a dozen civilian mine workers in central Ukraine on Sunday was part of a large-scale Russian attack on the company's facilities. Ella Gude of BNY Investments Newton discusses the potential risks around a Kevin Warsh-led Fed. (Source: Bloomberg)

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Oracle's recent selloff is a reminder that even the biggest AI winners can stumble when expectations get ahead of reality. Shares of Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) are now down more than 50% from their 2025 peak, erasing hundreds of billions in market value after last year's rally pushed the stock close to a trillion-dollar valuation. Oracle Stock Has Been Cut in Half -- Wall Street Questions AI Spending That surge was powered by optimism around Oracle's cloud business and its exposure to artificial intelligence workloads tied to partners like OpenAI. What's changed is not Oracle's long-term opportunity, but how investors are pricing risk. Building out massive data centers and AI infrastructure requires heavy capital spending, and markets are starting to ask tougher questions about when those investments translate into durable profits. In other words, the story has shifted from AI growth at any cost to AI growth with discipline. It does not imply that the plan of Oracle is completely misconstrued. Their cloud product is gaining momentum, and people are getting serious in AI inspired computing. The big jump notwithstanding, there was little way in which the stock could miss. The pullback indicates that investors are fine-tuning the definition in a heavy-cash-out AI world of what constitutes a solid growth rate. To long-term investors, the bigger question is whether Oracle can transform its dreams of AI fantasy into concrete cash flow, and not only lustful headlines. Today, there may be no wipe-out, but maybe a reset, as they can. Provided that they are not able to, the old highs of the stock could be challenging to achieve.

一场关于白酒股信仰与价值的再博弈 历经四年深度调整的白酒板块，近期似乎出现了一线转机。 2月2日，A股市场整体走弱，上证指数下跌2.48%。白酒板块却在此时逆势上扬，相关ETF强势领涨，成为市场中的亮点。这已是该板块近期第二次在调整市中率先反弹。但上一次大涨后迅速回调的“一日游”行情，仍让市场心有余悸。 更值得关注的是其背后的资金分歧。截至去年四季度末，公募白酒基金持仓已降至不足4%，筹码结构的出清看似为反转创造了条件，但机构与普通投资者的操作却呈现显著分化。这波上涨究竟是长达四年调整后的“王者归来”，还是悲观预期修复下的短暂反弹？ “近期白酒板块的反弹更多是短期基本面因素和交易因素的双重影响。”恒生前海消费升级混合基金经理胡启聪从交易层面分析称，白酒板块整体的机构持仓已降到历史低位，换言之筹码结构整体较好，抛压较少，“配合短期价格催化，极易引起资金的短期效益”。 不过，他也表示，大涨次日出现明显的调整，证明此次上涨更多是反弹，获利资金了结意愿强烈。“大家对于春节动销和茅台批价的分歧仍然较大，大部分人并不相信白酒已经触底，而是抱着赚一把就跑的心态。” 白酒板块逆市上涨 2月2日，白酒龙头贵州茅台（600519.SH）开盘再度放量大涨，盘中一度涨近4%随后进入震荡调整。截至当日收盘，贵州茅台最终上涨1.86%。皇台酒业（000995.SZ）连续三个交易日涨停，金徽酒（603919.SH）最近三个交易日录得两个涨停板，水井坊（600779.SH）盘中触及涨停，最终收涨超7%。 在A股整体回调的背景下，食品饮料板块逆势突围。当日，上证指数当日下跌2.48%，食品饮料板块以1.11%的涨幅领跑；概念板块中，Wind白酒指数（884705）、中证白酒指数（399997）更猛，单日上涨3%、1.87%。 相关ETF产品表现同样居前。Wind数据显示，2月2日，在全市场1110只股票型ETF中，只有21只“飘红”，占比不到2%；其中，鹏华中证酒ETF以1.48%的单日涨幅在股票型ETF中排名第一。 此外，相关主题ETF也“霸榜”前列，当天涨幅前十名股票型ETF中，酒、食品、消费主题类产品有7只。如食品饮料ETF华宝、食品饮料ETF银华、华夏食品饮料ETF、华安食品饮料ETF基金等产品单日涨幅均超0.5% 事实上，这一表现与1月29日的情况有些类似。当日超八成食品饮料个股实现上涨，...

2015年，央视春晚首次启用新媒体全程互动，微信成为春晚的红包互动合作伙伴。这一年，微信通过“摇一摇”发放5亿元现金红包，三个月内绑定两亿张银行卡，彻底激活了微信支付，自此后微信在移动支付领域与支付宝“分庭抗礼”。 这场载入我国互联网商战史册的红包雨，后来被马云评价为“偷袭珍珠港”。 而今相似的情节再次上演。前几日，腾讯旗下AI助手“元宝”宣布，将在2月1日开启新春活动，发放总额10亿元的现金红包，用户可通过元宝App体验AI新玩法、抢红包，最高可得万元。官宣后，马化腾几乎毫不掩饰地称，“希望重现当年微信红包的盛况”。就在同一天，百度也宣布启动马年春节红包活动，总额5亿元。 春节向来是互联网大厂争夺用户和流量的“黄金窗口期”，但今年这些巨头瞄准的不是春节流量的 C 位，而是AI时代的“超级入口”。 只是，新瓶装旧酒，在AI时代，用春节红包的老玩法去开启AI全民化的大门，能灵验吗？ 烧钱未必能换来流量 在巨头重启这场红包大战前，往前回溯，我们可以明显感受到原来争先抢后的红包大战早已降温，到了 2023 年，春节红包更是几乎「消失」，没有春晚级豪掷，也没有全民参与的互动，大厂似乎集体偃旗息鼓了。 为什么？除了大厂需要降本增效，一个重要的原因是他们发现耗费数十亿金额的红包大战，换来的只有短期的流量上涨，并不能解决长期的增长困境。这背后，一方面是人口红利耗尽，移动互联网的增量空间已经少之又少了，另一方面，越来越缺乏创意的玩法，渐渐消磨了用户的新鲜感和耐心度。 总而言之，红包大战内在的“烧钱换流量”的逻辑，在用户规模触及天花板以及用户对互联网营销日趋脱敏的环境下，已然弱化。而与此同时，在AI面向C端用户的战场上，通过大规模烧钱营销来换取用户增长的模式似乎也到达了一个瓶颈。 根据QuestMobile提供的独家数据显示，2025年前三个季度，国内前5大AI应用的总月活规模增长陷入停滞：Q1为3.43亿，Q2微增至3.49亿，Q3为3.55亿，直到Q4，得益于蚂蚁阿福和千问的发力，前5大AI应用的总月活规模被拉升至4.55亿。 蚂蚁阿福及千问的极速成长是阿里战略重心向C端用户市场转移的结果，这背后虽然离不开大规模的投流，可单一季度的爆发还不具备太大的参考价值。而反观腾讯，更有说服力。 根据AppGrowing估算，元宝在2025年投流高达150亿元。其中，单第三季度投流就高达57...

“券商行情不会缺席，逢低左侧布局窗口已经渐行渐近。” 随着1月收官，上市券商年报预告披露的首个高峰期结束。得益于A股过去一年的震荡上行，券商经纪及自营业务显著增长，进而带动整体业绩回暖。 Wind统计显示，截至1月底，中信证券（600030.SH）等5家上市券商已披露2025年业绩快报，另有17家披露了当期业绩预告，合计占到上市券商总数的五成左右。整体来看，上述22家券商业绩集体报喜，8家去年的归母净利润增幅预计超七成。 从目前的排名来看，“一哥”中信证券继续霸榜，2025年实现营收748.3亿元、归母净利润300.51亿元，同比双双增长。除此之外，实现逾百亿净利的券商还有2家，国泰海通（601211.SH）预计去年归母净利润275.33亿元至280.06亿元，同期，招商证券（600999.SH）预计实现归母净利润123亿元。此外，天风证券（601162.SH）去年有望扭亏，预计实现归母净利润1.25亿元至1.85亿元。 二级市场上，伴随A股震荡调整，即便有业绩利好的提振，证券板块近期表现仍较为平淡。但在业内看来，板块短期调整并非意味着行情终结。“券商行情不会缺席，逢低左侧布局窗口已经渐行渐近。”中信建投非银及金融科技首席分析师赵然称。 3家券商去年净利润超百亿 过去一年，A股市场交投整体活跃，受行情回暖带动，上市券商的2025年三季报成绩亮眼。去年四季度，市场整体震荡上行，沪指在年底站上3800点，“靠天吃饭”的证券业继续获得业绩支撑。 目前披露2025年业绩快报的5家券商，去年全部实现增收增利，同时，交出业绩预告的17家券商，业绩也悉数预喜，其中16家预增、1家扭亏。 从排名情况看，龙头券商继续领跑。目前，2025年营收超百亿的券商有3家，为中信证券、招商证券、光大证券，分别达到748.3亿元、249亿元和108.63亿元；同期，归母净利润（预计）超百亿的券商有3家，为中信证券、国泰海通和招商证券，分别为300.51亿元、275.33亿元至280.06亿元、123亿元。 紧随其后的是一批大型券商，包括中金公司、东方证券、方正证券等。其中，中金公司预计去年归母净利润85.42亿元至105.35亿元，同比增长50%至85%。同期，东方证券预计实现归母净利润56.2亿元，同比增长67.8%；方正证券预计实现归母净利润38.6亿元至40.8亿元，同比增长75%至85%。...

Goldman Sachs believes that accelerating client growth and emerging upside from crypto trading could drive shares of Futu higher. The bank upgraded the Tencent-backed digital brokerage platform to buy from neutral. Analyst Shuo Yang also lifted his price target to $213.39 from $157.85. The new target implies a gain of about 31% from Friday's close. Yang wrote that his rating change reflected a reevaluation of Futu's new client growth and turnover rate, as well as a positive capital market outlook. FUTU 1Y mountain FUTU 1Y chrt The analyst predicted that favorable market expectations will lead to continued client expansion. He thinks Futu will add 802,000 new paying clients in 2026 and 659,000 new paying clients in 2027. "Contrary to market perception, we believe FUTU can maintain growth in favorable periods (e.g. 2026) and capitalize on IPO upcycles for rapid client acquisition," he added. Futu also offers durable and competitive advantages due to its low-fee, convenience-driven discount platform. Against its competitors, Futu offers higher client retention, a higher return on equity, operation in distinct competitive regions and a higher operational efficiency. "FUTU's ability to grow stems from its product and service competitiveness, which drives high client retention and new acquisitions," he said. Yang added that the stock seems well-hedged against Fed rate cuts, with likely limited impact. He also pointed to digital assets as a future growth driver. "FUTU currently offers retail crypto trading but not B2B infrastructure. Therefore, merely shifting existing client AUM between stocks and crypto trading offers limited profit growth due to fee rate differentiation," Yang wrote. "We expect more significant growth to come from crypto trading, thereby attracting new clients and additional AUM." Shares of Futu have surged 68% over the past 12 months.

上周五，海豚君覆盖的三家与游戏行业息息相关的公司Unity、Applovin以及Roblox，股价均惨遭暴跌血洗，主要说法是当天谷歌新发布的世界模型Genie对游戏行业的颠覆性影响导致。 海豚君认为，我们不否认Genie在未来通过一轮一轮的升级给游戏行业带来的变化，但放在当下，无论是从“可玩性”和“经济性”而言，都离颠覆还早。而当天的Unity和Applovin，之所以有20%左右的暴跌，其实还有别的帮 凶 。 那么现在的问题是，这三家公司被错杀了吗？在即将到来的财报日上，它们是否具备强硬的基本面抵御“AI叙事”的负面压力？海豚君来详细聊一聊。 以下是详细分析 01 当下的Genie是一种颠覆性的互补 先说结论，Genie世界模型毫无疑问是一种颠覆性技术，长期来看将对多个行业产生深远影响。但从实操性和经济性两个角度而言， 短期下Genie更适合结合传统引擎叠加来进行开发，这样可以在保持原有产品精细度和稳定性的情况下，减少部分成本较高的人力支出： 世界模型可以激发更多的非专业人士参与到游戏创作中来，Genie完成门槛级的部分工作（如概念原型的预研、基础非重要场景的渲染、物理模拟以及宣传CG的制作等），而Unity、Applovin以及Roblox则继续落实更精确的动画渲染和长时间的稳定交互，游戏宣发及变现，以及整个生态经济搭建和用户运营。 为什么Genie这次“炸”了？ 谷歌的Genie是一款生成式交互环境世界模型，最早于2024年2月就已经发布，主要效果是用一张图片、一段文字描述来瞬间生成一个可以实时操作、逻辑连贯的虚拟世界。 Genie的初代版本实际应用空间有限，存在低分辨率、交互场景单一、一致性时效只有几秒、物理模拟限于简单碰撞等缺点。但2024年12月发布的第二代版本，将上述缺点进行显著弥补：分辨率提升，引入3D交互，一致性时效提高，增加更多的物理反馈等。 然后，就是这次引起轰动的第三代版本，2025年8月就已经预告，主要实现了720P高清，20-24FPS实时交互，一致性可以最高达到3-5分钟。 在AI生成可交互性内容场景中，可交互并预测交互后的空间变化，以及能否保持长时间的一致性是关键也是区别于传统视频生成技术的最大差异。 目前的AI往往会出现图像变形或者换个视角的镜头某个物体会突然消失等非连贯性的画面。简单来说，Genie 3已经可以支撑做游戏中的一个小...

2月2日，2026年春运工作开启。中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰2日在北京、天津检查综合运输春运工作。何立峰强调，春运事关千家万户春节假期的幸福团圆、事关亿万群众切身利益，是重要的政治任务和民生工程，党中央、国务院高度重视。各地区、各有关部门和交通运输企业要坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持安全第一、以人为本，树牢底线思维、极限思维，全力做好综合运输春运安全生产和服务保障各项工作，确保春运安全、平稳、顺利。(新华社)

上海建设国际航运中心从“硬件投入”转向“软件升级”。 凭借着“硬实力”，上海国际航运中心建设正在从“基本建成”迈向“全面建成”阶段。其中，国际海港枢纽世界排名保持领先，新华·波罗的海指数排名连续多年稳居世界第三，集装箱吞吐量连续15年全球第一。 作为“十五五”期间上海代表中国参与全球竞争的战略支点，加快建设国际经济、金融、贸易、航运、科创“五个中心”备受关注。在2026年上海两会上，从“硬实力”到“软实力”，多名上海市人大代表为国际航运中心的未来建言。 智能船舶立法条件成熟且可行 上海市人大代表、上海波罗的海国际航运公会(BIMCO)亚太中心亚太区总经理庄炜表示，智能航运是全球航运转型的战略方向，智能船舶作为核心要素，其法治保障的完善程度将直接关乎我国在未来国际航运体系中的竞争地位和规则话语权。 “智能船舶立法既面临迫切需求，也具备现实基础。”庄炜认为，当前正是通过浦东新区法规率先破题、形成示范，为国家制定相关法律制度创新探索路径、为国际智能船舶规则贡献样本的重要窗口期。 一方面，智能船舶在设计建造、航行许可、运营管理和安全保障等方面已突破传统船舶制度逻辑，但现行法律法规均以“有人驾驶船舶”为先决条件，制度供给明显滞后于技术和产业发展。在实船验证、适航审查、运营许可等关键环节，缺乏明确的法律依据，企业在研发试验和商业化应用中面临较大的合规不确定性，已成为制约产业发展的现实瓶颈。 与此同时，产业快速发展现状进一步凸显立法的紧迫性。据研究预测，到2027年我国智能船舶市场规模将达736亿元，全球市场规模可达9443亿元，智能船舶正加速成为航运技术升级和产业重构的重要方向。 从国际竞争格局看，智能船舶已成为全球航运规则重构的重要议题。主要航运国家意图通过本土立法和监管实践，向IMO提交可验证、可复制的制度方案，抢占新一轮规则制定主动权。中国虽具备技术和产业基础，但因缺乏成熟制度范本，在国际规则博弈中制度表达能力相对不足。上海若能率先开展智能船舶立法探索，形成可验证可借鉴的法治经验，不仅可填补国内制度空白，也将为我国参与国际航运治理、提升规则话语权提供有力支撑。 另一方面，智能船舶立法条件成熟且可行。庄炜表示，浦东新区具备在智能船舶领域率先开展地方立法探索的制度基础和法理依据。对于国家尚未立法或法律规范不明确的事项，浦东可先行制定相关管理措施，按程序报备实施，并将探索形成的...

Meta Platforms (META) is set to face a New Mexico trial this week as jury selection starts Monday in Upgrade to read this MT Newswires article and get so much more. A Silver or Gold subscription plan is required to access premium news articles.