anatoliycherkas/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Conflict in the Middle East has also impacted the agricultural sector, specifically causing soy prices to rise. This is because soy oil plays a key role in biodiesel production, and its demand increases because it is used to compensate for the shortage of oil or natural gas. Therefore, as the price of soy oil rises, so does the price of soybeans...
anatoliycherkas/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Conflict in the Middle East has also impacted the agricultural sector, specifically causing soy prices to rise. This is because soy oil plays a key role in biodiesel production, and its demand increases because it is used to compensate for the shortage of oil or natural gas. Therefore, as the price of soy oil rises, so does the price of soybeans, as more soybeans are needed to produce more oil. Soy represents almost 54% of net sales of Bunge Global ( BG ), a global leader in agricultural logistics that could indirectly benefit from rising oil prices ( CL1:COM ). In addition, there are other determining factors, such as higher transportation costs and the rise of fertilizer prices , that are pushing up the prices of agricultural commodities, including soy. Overview and context While the Middle East conflict keeps escalating, global uncertainty takes over our portfolios. The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) has dropped almost 4% so far this year, and if there is a ground invasion of Iran, I believe the index could drop up to 10%. That was my thesis in my previous article: How Will Markets React If The U.S. Deploys Ground Troops In Iran? I consider it's very hard to take investment decisions in times of so much uncertainty and if you're like me, investing long term in technology companies, you might be facing losses in your portfolios. That's why I recommend making cautious investments in this context, with greater selectivity and trading as little as possible. Thesis update In this complex landscape, I found an opportunity: Bunge Global. I wrote about the company in January, and I tried to highlight its operations. I chose a very cautious position because I was already seeing profitability problems in 2025, and a market that was already pricing in the positive effects of the Viterra acquisition. I have also explained, and here comes the most important thing, that the key catalysts for BG were in agricultural commodities, especiall...
Indian Oil Corp. has bought liquefied petroleum gas from Iran for the first time in almost eight years, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country scrambles to avert a worsening shortage of the vital cooking fuel spurred by the war in the Middle East. The refiner will share the shipment with its state-owned peers Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. , said...
Indian Oil Corp. has bought liquefied petroleum gas from Iran for the first time in almost eight years, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country scrambles to avert a worsening shortage of the vital cooking fuel spurred by the war in the Middle East. The refiner will share the shipment with its state-owned peers Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. , said the people, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the trade. Indian Oil last bought LPG from Iran in June 2018, according to data intelligence firm Kpler, which said the current cargo is about 43,000 tons of butane and propane. That amount would only be enough to meet half a day’s demand in India, where LPG is commonly used as a cooking fuel. The country imports about two-thirds of its supplies, and 90% of that comes from the Middle East, largely through the Strait of Hormuz that’s been effectively blocked since the start of the war. The shortages have seen some Indians being forced to cook with firewood, and have led to fights in lines to get LPG cylinders. New Delhi has curtailed supplies to commercial users such as hotels and restaurants and invoked emergency measures to accelerate the development of natural gas pipelines. It’s the first Indian purchase of energy from Iran since the US issued a temporary waiver earlier this month allowing the country to buy crude oil or petroleum products from the Islamic Republic. The market has been watching for signs of potential buyers for Iranian cargoes that were long considered out of reach due to harsh US sanctions. Read More: What It Would Take to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz: Explainer The people familiar didn’t provide any further details on the cargo or the vessel that’s carrying it. However, ship-tracking data from Kpler shows LPG carrier Sea Bird is transporting Iranian LPG and signaling it will arrive at India’s Mangalore port on Thursday. The ship had previously signaled its intention to head to China, as it...
Shares of Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) popped on Wednesday after the compute platform unveiled an intriguing new artificial intelligence (AI) chip. Image source: Getty Images. Arm has historically licensed its chip designs, instruction set architectures, and other intellectual property to a wide array of chipmakers. Arm's technology, in turn, has been used in hundreds of billions of devices. Continu...
Shares of Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) popped on Wednesday after the compute platform unveiled an intriguing new artificial intelligence (AI) chip. Image source: Getty Images. Arm has historically licensed its chip designs, instruction set architectures, and other intellectual property to a wide array of chipmakers. Arm's technology, in turn, has been used in hundreds of billions of devices. Continue reading
Darren415/iStock via Getty Images This blog has the distinction of periodically tracking and analyzing the M2 measure of money supply for almost 2 decades. Unlike most other analysts, I focus not just on the supply of money but also on the demand for money. For background, see this post from October 2020 in which I noted rapid growth in M2 but was not alarmed given the huge increase in money deman...
Darren415/iStock via Getty Images This blog has the distinction of periodically tracking and analyzing the M2 measure of money supply for almost 2 decades. Unlike most other analysts, I focus not just on the supply of money but also on the demand for money. For background, see this post from October 2020 in which I noted rapid growth in M2 but was not alarmed given the huge increase in money demand at the time. The key to understanding the relationship between money and inflation is to not lose sight of the demand for money. Milton Friedman famously taught us that inflation happens only when the supply of money exceeds the demand for it. When the M2 money supply accelerated in 2009 and 2020-21, it did not immediately ignite inflation because the demand for money also accelerated - with Covid shutdowns, it was quite difficult to spend money. But when the demand for money began to decline in early 2021, the money that had been stored in bank deposits and under mattresses began to be released into the economy, and this was the fuel for rising inflation in 2021 and into early 2022. By mid-2022, the Fed had responded to rising inflation by raising interest rates and slowing the growth of M2, thus bringing money supply and demand slowly back into balance. This gave me the confidence in the summer of 2022 to predict that the peak of inflation was now past and it would begin to decline. Since then I have continued to believe that inflation would remain low, given that although the demand for money was declining to pre-Covid levels, M2 growth remained very slow. The charts that follow are updated with the latest data. Fortunately, there has been no significant change in monetary conditions, and that is why I continue to see inflation remaining relatively low and stable. Chart #1 Chart #1 shows the level of the M2 money supply. From 1995 to late 2019, it grew by about 6% per year. During that same period, inflation registered about 2% per year. M2 growth then exploded in earl...
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images Two mysterious videos posted to the White House's official X and Instagram accounts on Wednesday night generated buzz online, with the purpose of the short, vertically shot clips unclear. One video was later deleted. The first video, posted around 9:15 pm EST, appeared to be filmed on a smartphone, with the camera pointed at someone's feet. In the four-second-lon...
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images Two mysterious videos posted to the White House's official X and Instagram accounts on Wednesday night generated buzz online, with the purpose of the short, vertically shot clips unclear. One video was later deleted. The first video, posted around 9:15 pm EST, appeared to be filmed on a smartphone, with the camera pointed at someone's feet. In the four-second-long video, a voice can be heard asking, "It's launching soon, right?" A line of text on the screen says "sound on." The video was later removed from the White House's accounts on X and Instagram roughly 90 minutes after it was posted. The second short video, posted at 10 a.m. EST, showed a black, staticky screen with a phone notification sound playing. An American flag was visible in one frame. The post included emojis of a smartphone and sound. There was no indication of the context of the posts, with many online commenters theorizing the accounts could have been hacked or that an official was cryptically teasing something. The White House did not immediately respond to a request to comment. It was not immediately clear whether the videos were posted intentionally. The posts follow earlier instances of the Trump administration White House social media accounts sharing meme-style content. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.