MargJohnsonVA Weak demand at recent U.S. Treasury auctions is signaling rising stress in global funding markets as Middle East tensions disrupt energy flows and investor behavior, according to Eric Wallerstein , chief macro strategist at Clocktower Group . Two consecutive auctions, including 5-year ( US5Y ) and 2-year ( US2Y ) notes, drew some of the weakest demand in years, with traditional buy-a...
MargJohnsonVA Weak demand at recent U.S. Treasury auctions is signaling rising stress in global funding markets as Middle East tensions disrupt energy flows and investor behavior, according to Eric Wallerstein , chief macro strategist at Clocktower Group . Two consecutive auctions, including 5-year ( US5Y ) and 2-year ( US2Y ) notes, drew some of the weakest demand in years, with traditional buy-and-hold investors stepping back and primary dealers forced to absorb larger shares of issuance. Wallerstein, in a post on X, said the decline reflects a pullback by large institutional “direct” bidders, which typically anchor Treasury demand, highlighting growing vulnerabilities linked to the role of oil-exporting economies in financing U.S. deficits. As energy infrastructure disruptions threaten export revenues, these investors may need to liquidate U.S. Treasuries to raise dollar liquidity, echoing dynamics seen during the COVID-19 shock. He also pointed to a structural shift in ownership, with foreign holdings increasingly concentrated among private investors such as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds rather than central banks. Unlike official institutions, these investors lack direct access to Federal Reserve liquidity backstops. That raises the risk of sharper market dislocations during periods of geopolitical stress. Wallerstein said the Federal Reserve should expand its existing facilities to include a broader set of foreign investors and extend lending tenors to help stabilize demand. Without preemptive action, he warned, U.S. borrowing costs could rise and market volatility intensify even as policymakers focus on interest rate decisions. Fixed Income ETFs: ( TLT ), ( TLH ), ( IEF ), ( IEI ), ( SHY ), ( SGOV ), ( SCHO ), ( BIL ), ( AGG ), ( BND ), ( VCIT ), ( MUB ), ( MBB ), ( JNK ), ( LQD ), ( HYG ), ( VTIP ), ( TIP ), ( SCHP ), ( STIP ), ( TIPX ), ( SPIP ), ( WIP ), ( GTIP ), ( LQDI ), and ( RINF ) More related stories The Silent Risk In Portfolios: Long-Dur...