Soybeans are showing 5 to 6 cent losses at Monday’s midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is 4 1/4 cents lower at $9.93 1/4. Soymeal futures are 30 to 50 cents higher, with Soy Oil futures are down 52 points USDA’s FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 1.31 MMT (48.15 mbu) during the week ending on January 29. That was 1.9% below the week prior but 14.9% above the same week las...
Soybeans are showing 5 to 6 cent losses at Monday’s midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is 4 1/4 cents lower at $9.93 1/4. Soymeal futures are 30 to 50 cents higher, with Soy Oil futures are down 52 points USDA’s FGIS tallied soybean export shipments at 1.31 MMT (48.15 mbu) during the week ending on January 29. That was 1.9% below the week prior but 14.9% above the same week last year. China was the top destination of 740,004 MT, with 137,596 MT headed to Mexico and 121,059 MT to Egypt. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 21.99 MMT (808 mbu) since September 1, which is now 35.7% below the same period last year and has closed the gap since early January by nearly 10 percentage points. Don’t Miss a Day: Just prior to midday, President Trump issued a Truth Social post that a call with India’s President Modi went well with the US lowering tariffs on the country from 25% to 18% and India agreeing to buy over $500 billion of US energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products. India has historically been a top 5 buyer of US bean oil and was the top buyer in 2025. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in soybean futures and options adding 7,261 contracts to their net long soybean futures and options as of January 27. They too that net position to a net long of 17,321 contracts, USDA should release crush data later today, with traders looking for 230.4 mbu of soybeans crushed during December. Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated at 10% harvested as of Thursday according to AgRural. StoneX estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 181.6 MMT, a 4 MMT increase from their previous projection. The Celeres forecast was up 4.1 MMT to 181.3 MMT/ Mar 26 Soybeans are at $10.59, down 5 1/4 cents, Nearby Cash is at $9.93 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents, May 26 Soybeans are at $10.71 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents, Jul 26 Soybeans are at $10.84 1/2, down 6 cents, On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in an...
Cotton futures are trading with 14 to 18 point losses at midday, pulling off early losses. Crude oil futures are down $3.39 per barrel on the day at $61.82. The US dollar index is up $0.641 to $97.500. Just prior to midday, President Trump issued a Truth Social post that a call with India’s President Modi went well with the US lowering tariffs on the country from 25% to 18% and India agreeing to b...
Cotton futures are trading with 14 to 18 point losses at midday, pulling off early losses. Crude oil futures are down $3.39 per barrel on the day at $61.82. The US dollar index is up $0.641 to $97.500. Just prior to midday, President Trump issued a Truth Social post that a call with India’s President Modi went well with the US lowering tariffs on the country from 25% to 18% and India agreeing to buy over $500 billion of US energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products. India has historically been a top 8 buyer of US cotton. Don’t Miss a Day: Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding 13,077 contracts to their net short position as of 1/27, taking it to 65,029 contracts. Friday’s online auction from The Seam showed sales of 56.571 cents/lb on 4,462 bales. The Cotlook A Index was down 20 points on January 30 at 73.95 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks were up 25,666 on 1/30 with the certified stocks level at 34,226 bales. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.23 cents/lb on Thursday afternoon, down 76 points from the week prior. Mar 26 Cotton is at 63.02, down 15 points, May 26 Cotton is at 64.76, down 17 points, Jul 26 Cotton is at 66.41, down 14 points More news from Barchart The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Investors piled into Oracle’s latest $25bn bond offering on Monday after the software company pledged to preserve its investment-grade Upgrade to read this Financial Times article and get so much more. A Silver or Gold subscription plan is required to access premium news articles.
Investors piled into Oracle’s latest $25bn bond offering on Monday after the software company pledged to preserve its investment-grade Upgrade to read this Financial Times article and get so much more. A Silver or Gold subscription plan is required to access premium news articles.
As one of the world's most exciting trends right now, it's natural to wonder if cryptocurrencies could benefit from AI. In the long run, buying XRP (XRP +2.20%) is a bet that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) will become a piece of financial plumbing that financial institutions actually route value through. But many different factors influence whether that actually happens, and artificial intelligence (AI) is...
As one of the world's most exciting trends right now, it's natural to wonder if cryptocurrencies could benefit from AI. In the long run, buying XRP (XRP +2.20%) is a bet that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) will become a piece of financial plumbing that financial institutions actually route value through. But many different factors influence whether that actually happens, and artificial intelligence (AI) is one of them. So is the coin exposed to any upside stemming from the rise and proliferation of AI, or is its infrastructure too insulated from one of the decade's most powerful trends? Where AI might help XRP XRPL is built for fast and low-cost transaction settlements that can meet the regulatory compliance burden of banks and other financial businesses. All of those features become relevant if AI agents start handling real money in the near future and use blockchains to do so. In this context, an AI agent is software that can plan and take actions toward a goal, including making payments or swapping assets. Financial regulators are already talking about agentic AI as a coming factor in mainstream finance and market structure, so this isn't science fiction any longer. Expand CRYPTO : XRP XRP Today's Change ( 2.20 %) $ 0.03 Current Price $ 1.63 Key Data Points Market Cap $99B Day's Range $ 1.54 - $ 1.65 52wk Range $ 1.54 - $ 3.65 Volume 5.5B If that future of AI agents transacting on various blockchains arrives soon, XRP already has rails for it. The ledger has a feature that allows parties to stream or batch XRP payments off the main ledger and then settle them later, which might come in handy for agents. Similarly, the network's built-in decentralized exchange (DEX) can also bridge assets, though it's currently barely in use. Don't treat XRP as an AI thesis yet While it's technically possible for XRP to benefit from AI transacting on its chain, it doesn't make much sense to include that possibility in the asset's investment thesis right now. First, XRPL's fees are intentio...
Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel , in trading on Monday, shares of Robert Half Inc (Symbol: RHI) were yielding above the 7% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $2.36), with the stock changing hands as low as $31.69 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a conside...
Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel , in trading on Monday, shares of Robert Half Inc (Symbol: RHI) were yielding above the 7% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $2.36), with the stock changing hands as low as $31.69 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market's total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the iShares Russell 3000 ETF (IWV) back on 5/31/2000 — you would have paid $78.27 per share. Fast forward to 5/31/2012 and each share was worth $77.79 on that date, a loss of $0.48 or 0.6% decrease over twelve years. But now consider that you collected a whopping $10.77 per share in dividends over the same period, increasing your return to 13.15%. Even with dividends reinvested, that only amounts to an average annual total return of about 1.0%; so by comparison collecting a yield above 7% would appear considerably attractive if that yield is sustainable. Robert Half Inc (Symbol: RHI) is a member of the Russell 3000, giving it special status as one of the largest 3000 companies on the U.S. stock markets. In general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Robert Half Inc, looking at the history chart for RHI below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 7% annual yield. Click here to find out which 9 other dividend stocks just recently went on sale » Also see: The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel , in trading on Monday, shares of Best Buy Inc (Symbol: BBY) were yielding above the 6% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $3.8), with the stock changing hands as low as $62.77 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerabl...
Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel , in trading on Monday, shares of Best Buy Inc (Symbol: BBY) were yielding above the 6% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $3.8), with the stock changing hands as low as $62.77 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market's total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) back on 12/31/1999 — you would have paid $146.88 per share. Fast forward to 12/31/2012 and each share was worth $142.41 on that date, a decrease of $4.67/share over all those years. But now consider that you collected a whopping $25.98 per share in dividends over the same period, for a positive total return of 23.36%. Even with dividends reinvested, that only amounts to an average annual total return of about 1.6%; so by comparison collecting a yield above 6% would appear considerably attractive if that yield is sustainable. Best Buy Inc (Symbol: BBY) is an S&P 500 company, giving it special status as one of the large-cap companies making up the S&P 500 Index. In general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Best Buy Inc, looking at the history chart for BBY below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 6% annual yield. BBY has been growing its dividend for more than 20 years consecutively. For more dividend growth stocks view our Dividend Aristocrats List on Dividend Channel. Click here to find out which 9 other dividend stocks just recently went on sale » Also see: The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Commodities trader Mercuria Energy Group is exploring Venezuelan oil trades, according to people with knowledge of the matter, after the Trump administration eased some sanctions on the South American country. AB Commodities, which recently made hires to help lead an expansion into the US, is also applying to trade Venezuelan cargoes under a general license issued by the US Treasury Department las...
Commodities trader Mercuria Energy Group is exploring Venezuelan oil trades, according to people with knowledge of the matter, after the Trump administration eased some sanctions on the South American country. AB Commodities, which recently made hires to help lead an expansion into the US, is also applying to trade Venezuelan cargoes under a general license issued by the US Treasury Department last week, as well as a special license, a spokesperson said. The Treasury license will allow for a variety of activities that could expedite the movement of Venezuelan crude, including exporting, selling, storing and refining that oil. Before the license, anyone buying Venezuelan crude had to go through oil major Chevron Corp or traders Vitol Group and Trafigura Group . The traders were enlisted by the US to help sell as much as 50 million barrels of oil following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro by US forces last month. A clutch of trading houses now want a piece of the action while refiners are pleading for direct oil access, with fewer middlemen translating to fewer fees and markups. The authorization is seen as a significant step to ease sanctions under the new US-backed leadership in Caracas, with the stated goal of reviving the country’s oil sector. A European refiner is also seeking to buy oil under the Treasury license, another person familiar said. Mercuria, which has a US office , is looking to take on barrels of crude, and also supply fuels to Venezuela, one of the people familiar said. The trader recently expanded bunker operations in the Bahamas and could use fuel oil there, the person said. Read More: Are Trump’s Big Plans for Venezuela’s Oil Realistic?: QuickTake Among the companies eligible to buy oil directly from state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA are Spanish refiner Repsol SA , Italian Eni Spa and Reliance Industries Ltd. Companies that don’t have a US foothold, such as Swedish refiner Nynas AB and Tipco Asphalt PLC, from Thailand , are...
Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel, in trading on Friday, shares of Kimco Realty Corp (Symbol: KIM) were yielding above the 5% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $0.92), with the stock changing hands as low as $18.36 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a consid...
Looking at the universe of stocks we cover at Dividend Channel, in trading on Friday, shares of Kimco Realty Corp (Symbol: KIM) were yielding above the 5% mark based on its quarterly dividend (annualized to $0.92), with the stock changing hands as low as $18.36 on the day. Dividends are particularly important for investors to consider, because historically speaking dividends have provided a considerable share of the stock market's total return. To illustrate, suppose for example you purchased shares of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) back on 12/31/1999 — you would have paid $146.88 per share. Fast forward to 12/31/2012 and each share was worth $142.41 on that date, a decrease of $4.67/share over all those years. But now consider that you collected a whopping $25.98 per share in dividends over the same period, for a positive total return of 23.36%. Even with dividends reinvested, that only amounts to an average annual total return of about 1.6%; so by comparison collecting a yield above 5% would appear considerably attractive if that yield is sustainable. Kimco Realty Corp (Symbol: KIM) is an S&P 500 company, giving it special status as one of the large-cap companies making up the S&P 500 Index. In general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Kimco Realty Corp, looking at the history chart for KIM below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 5% annual yield. Click here to find out which 9 other dividend stocks just recently went on sale » Also see: The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE. Google has launched Project Genie, an AI tool that builds interactive 3D worlds from text and images. The product targets game and content creators, an area where Unity Software (NYSE:U) has been a key platform. The announcement...
Never miss an important update on your stock portfolio and cut through the noise. Over 7 million investors trust Simply Wall St to stay informed where it matters for FREE. Google has launched Project Genie, an AI tool that builds interactive 3D worlds from text and images. The product targets game and content creators, an area where Unity Software (NYSE:U) has been a key platform. The announcement has coincided with concern about Unity’s competitive position and shifts in investor sentiment. Unity Software, trading at about $29.1 per share, has seen sharp moves recently, with a 32.3% decline over the past week and a 34.2% decline over the past month. Despite that pressure, the stock is up 36.0% over the past year, while longer term holders have faced a 76.7% decline over five years. This underscores how sentiment around NYSE:U can swing. Google’s entry with Project Genie puts fresh focus on how AI tools could affect Unity’s role in game and 3D content creation. For investors watching NYSE:U, the key questions now center on how Unity’s tools, ecosystem, and partnerships respond to rising AI driven competition in its core use cases. Stay updated on the most important news stories for Unity Software by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Unity Software. NYSE:U 1-Year Stock Price Chart Why Unity Software could be great value Project Genie has hit a pressure point for Unity because it speaks directly to automated world-building, which sits close to Unity’s core Create tools. The sharp share-price reaction suggests investors are questioning whether developers and user-generated platforms might eventually split their time between Unity, Unreal Engine from Epic Games, Roblox’s toolset and new AI-powered options from Google, rather than relying primarily on traditional engines. How this fits the Unity Software long-term narrative The existing narratives around NYSE:U focus on Unity as a key 2D and 3D ...
Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide. Amazon.com (NasdaqGS:AMZN) is reported to be in preliminary talks to invest up to $50b in OpenAI, which would make it the largest investor in the AI company. The discussions reportedly include deeper integration of OpenAI models across Amazon platforms and d...
Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide. Amazon.com (NasdaqGS:AMZN) is reported to be in preliminary talks to invest up to $50b in OpenAI, which would make it the largest investor in the AI company. The discussions reportedly include deeper integration of OpenAI models across Amazon platforms and direct involvement from CEO Andy Jassy. Since October, Amazon has reportedly cut around 30,000 jobs, with management linking parts of the restructuring to efficiency gains from AI. For investors watching Amazon.com (NasdaqGS:AMZN), these AI focused moves come as the shares trade around $239.3, with a return of 134.2% over the past 3 years and 44.0% over 5 years. The company is already a major player in cloud and retail, so a potential multibillion dollar stake in OpenAI would add a new layer to how its AI capabilities might shape future products and services. The combination of large scale AI investment talks and reported 30,000 layoffs since October raises questions about how Amazon will balance automation with its global workforce. As details around any OpenAI deal and further restructuring emerge, investors may want to track how Amazon explains the link between AI adoption, cost structure, and long term business priorities. Stay updated on the most important news stories for Amazon.com by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Amazon.com. NasdaqGS:AMZN 1-Year Stock Price Chart Why Amazon.com could be great value For you as an Amazon shareholder or watcher, the reported talks to put up to US$50b into OpenAI sit on top of an already heavy AI and data center spend, while the roughly 30,000 corporate layoffs since October signal an aggressive push to keep the cost base lean. The key question is whether tying up such a large amount of capital in an external AI partner, on top of Amazon Web Services (AWS) a...
The Trump Administration exempts new nuclear reactors from environmental review toggle caption Idaho National Laboratory The Trump Administration is excluding new experimental reactors being built at sites around the U.S. from a major environmental law that would have required them to disclose how their construction and operation might harm the environment. The law also typically required a writte...
The Trump Administration exempts new nuclear reactors from environmental review toggle caption Idaho National Laboratory The Trump Administration is excluding new experimental reactors being built at sites around the U.S. from a major environmental law that would have required them to disclose how their construction and operation might harm the environment. The law also typically required a written, public assessment of the possible consequences of a nuclear accident. The exclusion comes just days after NPR revealed officials at the Department of Energy had secretly rewritten environmental, safety and security rules to make it easier for the reactors to be built. Sponsor Message The Department of Energy announced the change Monday in a notice in the Federal Register. It said the department would begin excluding advanced nuclear reactors from the National Environmental Policy Act. The act requires federal agencies to consider the environment when undertaking new projects and programs. That law also requires extensive reporting on how proposed programs might impact local ecosystems. That documentation, known as an Environmental Impact Statement, and a second lesser type of analysis, known as an Environmental Assessment, provide an opportunity for the public to review and comment on potential projects in their community. In its notice, the Energy Department cited the inherent safety of the advanced reactor designs as the reason they should be excluded from environmental reviews. "Advanced reactor projects in this category typically employ inherent safety features and passive safety systems," it said. Loading... The exemption had been expected, according to Adam Stein, the director of nuclear energy innovation at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental think tank that studies nuclear power and the tech sector. President Trump explicitly required it in an executive order on nuclear power he signed last May. Stein says he thinks the exclusion "is appropriate" for som...
Salesforce had a rough 2025 but remains fundamentally strong. Is it worth a look in 2026? Despite the banner year 2025 was for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, not every company in the industry had a great year. Some AI companies tumbled dramatically despite the sheer amount of media attention and investing fervor in the technology. Some of them fell due to being over-hyped or having poor fund...
Salesforce had a rough 2025 but remains fundamentally strong. Is it worth a look in 2026? Despite the banner year 2025 was for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, not every company in the industry had a great year. Some AI companies tumbled dramatically despite the sheer amount of media attention and investing fervor in the technology. Some of them fell due to being over-hyped or having poor fundamentals, but there's a few for which I can't explain their poor performance. Salesforce (CRM 0.82%) is one of them. The past 12 months have seen the company fall 33.7%, while the S&P 500 rose 16%. But given the company's strong fundamentals and the fact that it's up over 5,200% since its initial public offering (IPO) in 2004, I think 2025's dip was a speed bump and nothing more. Expand NYSE : CRM Salesforce Today's Change ( -0.82 %) $ -1.75 Current Price $ 210.54 Key Data Points Market Cap $199B Day's Range $ 209.84 - $ 216.89 52wk Range $ 208.78 - $ 348.04 Volume 283K Avg Vol 8.3M Gross Margin 70.07 % Dividend Yield 0.78 % A sales force multiplier Like Palantir, Salesforce is one of those companies people hear about but are often a little confused about what they actually do. Salesforce is actually rather simply explained as a suite of software that makes business easier. From selling products more efficiently to managing customer relationships, Salesforce has a cloud and AI-enabled piece of software to help out. In practice, it looks like FedEx capturing a 2,000% return on its investment in Salesforce because it helped the delivery company reactivate dormant accounts and send out 1 billion personalized emails annually. Or Formula 1 speeding up customer service responses 80% through the use of AI customer service reps. Both are results cited by Salesforce as proof of its effectiveness and those two businesses aren't alone. Saks, OpenTable, Pandora, Lennar, and Pearson, among others, are also on Salesforce's website singing its praises. The reason Salesforce was down in 20...
In this video, I will discuss four stocks to sell or take profits on before they report earnings. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. *Stock prices used were from the trading day of Jan. 30, 2026. The video was published on Feb. 1, 2026. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best ...
In this video, I will discuss four stocks to sell or take profits on before they report earnings. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below. *Stock prices used were from the trading day of Jan. 30, 2026. The video was published on Feb. 1, 2026. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue » Should you buy stock in Advanced Micro Devices right now? Before you buy stock in Advanced Micro Devices, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Advanced Micro Devices wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $450,256!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,171,666!* Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 942% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 196% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of February 2, 2026. Neil Rozenbaum has positions in Advanced Micro Devices and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Palantir Technologies, Rocket Lab, and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Neil is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced backlash over his trip to China amid claims that the UK government has been “tricked” by Beijing. Conservative former security minister Tom Tugendhat raised the issue of Chinese sanctions on British parliamentarians after Starmer announced that “all restrictions” had been lifted on current members. Tugendhat, former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smit...
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced backlash over his trip to China amid claims that the UK government has been “tricked” by Beijing. Conservative former security minister Tom Tugendhat raised the issue of Chinese sanctions on British parliamentarians after Starmer announced that “all restrictions” had been lifted on current members. Tugendhat, former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, Senior Deputy Speaker Nusrat Ghani and Conservative former minister Neil O’Brien were among those banned from entering China, Hong Kong and Macau in 2021. Advertisement Their property in China was also frozen and Chinese citizens and institutions were prohibited from doing business with them – but these sanctions no longer apply to current parliamentarians. Addressing House of Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle, Tugendhat said: “Do you not find it as surprising as I do, that the prime minister has come back with a deal that lifts the sanctions on those six of us who are still in this house but not the one who isn’t, nor the lawyers, advisers and academics who support the work of this house. Advertisement “Is this not a direct affront to the democracy of this place, an attempt to divide and conquer that we’ve seen China play against the European Parliament, and sadly has tricked our government, too.”
A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve — with Kevin Warsh set to take over as chair in May — will likely inject some fresh turbulence into the US stock market, based on prior leadership transitions. Since 1930, the S&P 500 Index has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the one-, three- and six-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm, according to data compiled by Bar...
A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve — with Kevin Warsh set to take over as chair in May — will likely inject some fresh turbulence into the US stock market, based on prior leadership transitions. Since 1930, the S&P 500 Index has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the one-, three- and six-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm, according to data compiled by Barclays Plc ’s global head of equities tactical strategies Alexander Altmann . Such routs have been larger than the typical peak-to-trough drop for the S&P 500 during any randomly selected year. While “the market may be hand wringing about whether Mr. Warsh is a perceived ‘hawk’ or not, the true test is more likely to come after May,” Altmann wrote in a note to clients. “New Fed chairs typically get ‘tested’ to some degree by equity markets within the first six months of their appointment into office.” US stocks fell on Friday following the initial announcement that President Donald Trump nominated Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell because traders saw him as the least dovish of the candidates under consideration. Warsh served as a governor at the Fed from 2006 to 2011. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will contend with markets that are already on edge about the Fed’s independence after Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell, claiming he hasn’t eased monetary policy quickly enough. While Warsh had a hawkish reputation during his previous stint at the central bank, he has since aligned himself with the president by arguing publicly for lower rates. He has also said the Fed should reduce its portfolio of bonds and rethink its economic models. Morgan Stanley Sees Greater Treasury Volatility Under Warsh Fed Fed Pick Warsh on Lower Rates, Balance Sheet and ‘Regime Change’ Trump Picks a Reinvented Warsh to Lead the Federal Reserve The leadership change will add to the already considerable uncertainty about the path of monetary policy, which has been tugged between elevated inflation and...