Volatility is pricey - so said a quote in a release I read this lunchtime on the increase in the cost of mortgages. And boy, they are right. In less than one month, the average two-year fix has risen from 4.83% at the start of March to 5.75% today - the highest since August 2024. It was Adam French, head of Consumer Finance at Moneyfacts, who said: “The reality is that a more volatile world is a m...
Volatility is pricey - so said a quote in a release I read this lunchtime on the increase in the cost of mortgages. And boy, they are right. In less than one month, the average two-year fix has risen from 4.83% at the start of March to 5.75% today - the highest since August 2024. It was Adam French, head of Consumer Finance at Moneyfacts, who said: “The reality is that a more volatile world is a more expensive world. Anyone looking to buy or remortgage this year needs to prepare for substantially higher costs than previously expected.” That was not the plan for 2026. We all already sense this - perhaps we still have the muscle memory of our responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg’s Irina Anghel has the latest GfK survey showing that Britons are saving more and cutting back on big ticket items - smaller Easter eggs all round (and good luck to those trying to shift garden sofa sets that can cost as much as a bijoux car). Sentiment has plunged to the lowest since last April when we were pummelled by both US tariffs and household-bill increases. Indeed, retail sales in February were already lower, before the start of the Iran war - the rainy weather in January had already hit demand. GfK’s Neil Bellamy now talks about a “ripple of fear.” Respondents appear to be quite confident in the financial choices they are making, while also bracing for waves of chaos coming from the macro-economy. “People are probably thinking, my finances are OK for now, but I’m not sure the economy will be able to withstand this,” Bellamy says. “They don’t immediately go into panic mode, but if this keeps going on for another month, they might well do. This sentiment that people may not have money to spend also partially explains the messaging from key rate setters at the Bank of England. Three separate BOE members have made three separate speeches in recent days casting doubt over the threat of a price spiral from the Iran war. Even though the markets are now expecting three hik...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images STMicroelectronics ( STM ) appears to be seeing strength in demand from the industrial sector, as well as optical sales to data centers, investment firm Jefferies said on Friday. Regarding industrial, analyst Janardan Menon said a number of analog semiconductor companies have spoken about a “strengthening order pattern.” “Order trends have impro...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images STMicroelectronics ( STM ) appears to be seeing strength in demand from the industrial sector, as well as optical sales to data centers, investment firm Jefferies said on Friday. Regarding industrial, analyst Janardan Menon said a number of analog semiconductor companies have spoken about a “strengthening order pattern.” “Order trends have improved since Q4-25 results, strengthening the backlog and providing better visibility into H2-26. The improvement seems broad-based by application and geography,” Menon wrote in a note to clients. “The upside is being driven by end-demand improvement in some areas, low inventory levels in the supply chain, and concerns about strong AI-related demand causing supply tightness in some product categories. Many suppliers, including STM, are increasing prices. While auto-related demand has so far not shown the same kind of recovery due to weakness in Chinese car demand, it seems to have stabilized.” Menon, who has a Buy rating on STMicro, upped his price to €35 from €29 on the stock. Delving deeper, Menon said the most significant change for STMicro has been the “very strong upside” for its pluggable transceivers that are being used in artificial intelligence data centers, with strength likely to come in the second half of 2026, 2027, and beyond. “Following the qualification of its PIC100 silicon photonics manufacturing process late last year, very healthy orders seem to have come from customers led by AWS,” Menon added. “Optical-related revenue is expected to rise to well over $500m by 2027 and potentially to over $1bn by 2028, from almost zero in 2025. As a result, we expect Optical revenues alone to contribute 4-5% growth to STM overall in 2027 and 2028, with AI power potentially adding to this.” Menon also pointed to “resilient” iPhone sales, notable given that STMicro is more linked to the Apple ( AAPL ) device. However, he does not expect much impact from a foldable iPhone, wh...
MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images By Christopher Gannatti, CFA For much of the past decade, investing in U.S. equities felt almost synonymous with investing in growth. Technology giants and other high-growth companies dominated index returns, leaving traditional value sectors, such as financials, energy, and industrials, trailing behind. But markets rarely move in straight lines forever. Recen...
MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images By Christopher Gannatti, CFA For much of the past decade, investing in U.S. equities felt almost synonymous with investing in growth. Technology giants and other high-growth companies dominated index returns, leaving traditional value sectors, such as financials, energy, and industrials, trailing behind. But markets rarely move in straight lines forever. Recently, signs have emerged that the leadership dynamic may be shifting. Value-oriented stocks have begun to outperform growth after a prolonged stretch of underperformance, raising an important question for investors: are we witnessing a temporary rotation, or the early stages of a new market cycle? Very Long-Term Historical Context Markets have a way of reminding investors that leadership rarely lasts forever. Figure 1 shows the difference in rolling 10-year annualized returns between value and growth stocks. When the line sits above zero, the value style has outperformed over the prior decade. When it dips below zero, the growth style has been in the lead. 1 What stands out is how cyclical these leadership regimes have historically been, as well as how the value style was quite dominant until recently. From the late 1940s through the early 1980s, for example, value stocks delivered meaningfully higher returns than growth over rolling 10-year windows. But, as we know, the pattern began to shift in the past decade. The sustained dominance of large-cap technology and other growth-oriented companies pushed the metric decisively into negative territory, marking one of the most pronounced periods of growth outperformance on record. For many investors entering 2026, this is the backdrop: a long cycle of growth leadership that increasingly raises the question of whether the next style rotation could already be underway. Figure 1: Value vs. Growth Leadership Over Rolling 10-Year Periods Source: French, K. R. (n.d.). Detail for portfolios formed on book-to-market. Kenneth R. French Da...
Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern speak daily with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day. (Source: Bloomberg)
Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern speak daily with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day. (Source: Bloomberg)
da-kuk Scott Chronert, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi Research, maintains that despite escalating global uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, the U.S. remains the “best house in a tricky neighborhood” for investors. However, the strategist acknowledged in an interview with CNBC that confidence is eroding as the situation drags on without a clear resolution in sight. “I think you’ve got...
da-kuk Scott Chronert, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi Research, maintains that despite escalating global uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, the U.S. remains the “best house in a tricky neighborhood” for investors. However, the strategist acknowledged in an interview with CNBC that confidence is eroding as the situation drags on without a clear resolution in sight. “I think you’ve got a market right now that is probably more comfortable reducing risk than not, just because there’s no real clear line of sight to resolution right now,” Chronert said. Citi’s global strategists have responded to the prolonged uncertainty by moving toward a more neutralized equity exposure. While U.S. equities ( SP500 ), ( COMP:IND ), ( DJI ) remain relatively attractive compared to global alternatives, the firm is advising investors to seek safety in the rates market, particularly in the two-to-five-year part of the yield curve ( US2Y ), ( US5Y ). “The bias right now is to hunker down in the rates markets as a source of relative safety as things continue to proceed here,” Chronert explained. Persistent inflation concerns are adding pressure to an already challenging environment, particularly on the 10-year Treasury yield ( US10Y ). Chronert noted that rising rates present a significant headwind as inflation concerns remain in the background. “Certainly it’s had pressure on the 10-year ( US10Y ), which in turn is a problem for…the valuation setup for U.S. equities.” Despite these pressures, earnings data has shown surprising resilience. S&P 500 ( SP500 ) full-year earnings projections have climbed to $321, exceeding Citi’s previous high-end estimate of $320 from just a couple of months ago. Chronert attributed this strength largely to significant gains in the semiconductor sector ( SMH ), ( SOXX ), ( SOXL ), ( XSD ), even as the broader market remains at levels not seen in over six months. Looking ahead, Chronert expects an “increasing tailwind from the energy sector” ( XLE ...
Jerry Murrell seemingly alluded to healthcare CEO killing when he explained giving bonus to workers after bungled promotion Sign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inbox Five Guys’ chief executive officer, Jerry Murrell, said he gave a $1.5m bonus to employees of his US-based burger restaurant chain because “I didn’t want anybody shooting me” after the company recen...
Jerry Murrell seemingly alluded to healthcare CEO killing when he explained giving bonus to workers after bungled promotion Sign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inbox Five Guys’ chief executive officer, Jerry Murrell, said he gave a $1.5m bonus to employees of his US-based burger restaurant chain because “I didn’t want anybody shooting me” after the company recently “screwed … up” a buy-one-get-one-free promotion. Murrell did not elaborate on the comment, which he gave to Fortune in an interview published on Wednesday – but it came a little more than a year after the UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was shot dead on a midtown Manhattan street in what was widely considered a murderous rebuke of the US health insurance industry’s profit-driven practices. Continue reading...
Isabel Schnabel, executive board member of the European Central Bank, during an interview at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany, on Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025. Asked about views that it's time for a German to lead the ECB and whether she could be that person, Schnabel said "if I was asked, I would stand ready."
Isabel Schnabel, executive board member of the European Central Bank, during an interview at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany, on Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025. Asked about views that it's time for a German to lead the ECB and whether she could be that person, Schnabel said "if I was asked, I would stand ready."
South_agency/E+ via Getty Images Versant ( VSNT ), the networks-focused entity that spun out of Comcast ( CMCSA ) and the parent company of CNBC and MS NOW, is weighing buying Vox Media's podcast network, The New York Times reported Friday, citing several sources. The talks, which are still in their early stages, may not result in a deal, the report said, citing sources. Aside from Vox Media’s pod...
South_agency/E+ via Getty Images Versant ( VSNT ), the networks-focused entity that spun out of Comcast ( CMCSA ) and the parent company of CNBC and MS NOW, is weighing buying Vox Media's podcast network, The New York Times reported Friday, citing several sources. The talks, which are still in their early stages, may not result in a deal, the report said, citing sources. Aside from Vox Media’s podcast network attracting suitors, some companies are said to be interested in its portfolio of websites that includes Vox.com, The Verge, and Eater, while others are interested in New York magazine, the report said. A deal between Vox Media and Versant would be a reunion for the two companies. NBCUniversal, part of Comcast and the former parent company of what was then MSNBC, invested $200M in Vox Media in 2015 at the height of the digital media boom. When Versant spun out from Comcast this year, it inherited NBCUniversal’s stake. Back then, TV executives thought start-ups like Vox Media and BuzzFeed ( BZFD ) could serve as a medium to grab young audiences’ attention and a bridge to the digital future. Versant has been aggressive in its pursuit of deals since it debuted on the Nasdaq earlier this year. So far, it has bought Free TV Networks, a provider of over-the-air digital broadcasts, and INDY Cinema Group, a technology platform for movie theaters. More on Versant Media Group, Inc. Versant Media: The Jury Is Still Out Here Versant Media Group, Inc. (VSNT) Presents at Deutsche Bank 34th Annual Media, Internet & Telecom Conference Transcript Versant Media Group, Inc. (VSNT) Presents at Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 Transcript Versant Media Group reports FY results CNBC to cut nearly a dozen jobs as it unifies TV and digital ops - Reuters
William_Potter/iStock via Getty Images Meta Stock: P/Cash Ratio Retreats To 10x Amid Layoffs I last covered Meta Platforms, Inc. ( META ) on February 18 with an article entitled "Meta Platforms: Why Strong Money Loves It.” The article rated it as a Buy after analyzing the holdings disclosed by institutional and professional fund managers. Since then, a few new catalysts have surfaced and motivated...
William_Potter/iStock via Getty Images Meta Stock: P/Cash Ratio Retreats To 10x Amid Layoffs I last covered Meta Platforms, Inc. ( META ) on February 18 with an article entitled "Meta Platforms: Why Strong Money Loves It.” The article rated it as a Buy after analyzing the holdings disclosed by institutional and professional fund managers. Since then, a few new catalysts have surfaced and motivated this follow-up. In particular, I will focus on 2 of the catalysts: the layoff plans the company has announced and also the valuation changes of the company in the recent month or so. The layoff plans (more on this in a minute), when combined with the heightened geopolitical risks lately, have compressed the company’s valuation to an unusual degree. As an example, the table below shows Meta Platforms’ price-to-cash flow (P/cash) metrics at its current share price of around $547. On a TTM basis, the ratio stands at 11.96. The ratio becomes even more compressed on a forward-looking basis, where it hovers around 10x only. These valuation multiples are too low either in absolute terms or relative to the company’s historical norms in my model. The TTM ratio is about 20% discounted compared to its five-year average of 14.90, and the forward ratio is almost 1/3 below its five-year average. Next, I will argue that such a compression reflects market overreaction and provides a substantial margin of safety for long-term investors. Seeking Alpha Meta Stock: Restructuring Plan As just mentioned, I believe the above valuation compression is largely caused by the company’s restructuring plans and also the ongoing geopolitical risks. The geopolitical risk is an extrinsic factor and is ultimately temporary in my assessment. The layoff plan, on the other hand, does reflect an internal structural shift. But I believe the market has either misjudged or overreacted to this shift. Let me start by providing the necessary background of the layoff plan for readers not familiar with it yet. Early t...