Carlos Alvarez/Getty Images News A dead cat bounce is possible Burford Capital Limited ( BUR ) has something of a problem here. The big issue to be faced by us out here, as investors or potential such, is how much of a problem? This is something not wholly knowable at present, which makes a valuation difficult. It's possible to have a view, of course, but I am not sure how analytically correct suc...
Carlos Alvarez/Getty Images News A dead cat bounce is possible Burford Capital Limited ( BUR ) has something of a problem here. The big issue to be faced by us out here, as investors or potential such, is how much of a problem? This is something not wholly knowable at present, which makes a valuation difficult. It's possible to have a view, of course, but I am not sure how analytically correct such a view will be. Essentially, the difficulty is in working out how large a disaster this loss in the YPF/Repsol case will be. That in turn will influence our thinking on whether we might see a recovery in the price from Friday's collapse or, instead, it will get worse. That, in my view at least, depends upon what we think they're going to do about past revenue from this case they've already recognised in this case. The background here As I've said before about Burford : Burford actually has a nice business here. Financing litigation and then gaining some portion of the award for having done so. I know they'll hate the idea of being compared to ambulance chasers - for they are not ambulance chasers - but the economic model is the same. Burford fund litigation, then gain a portion of the award for having done so. At the top, this is a valuable economic service. The question is, always, how much will the award be? And will it get paid? The basic idea is just fine as a concept. Burford has also had a pipeline of cases, won some of them, and thus made profits on those cases. None of this is contested. But we also have a conceptual problem with the accounts of any business doing something like this: One of these companies, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) wandered into problems in this field some years back. I've had the occasional email from them; in fact, they are muttering that perhaps I'm not being wholly fair to them. No, that wasn't about my coverage at Seeking Alpha; this is elsewhere. The problem was - and at this distance we'd not say that anyone was wrong, just that there...
Getty Images Tesla: Double Down On Highly Uncertain Payoffs? Is Tesla Inc. ( TSLA ) an automotive company? A rocket company or a robotics company? These questions are becoming harder and harder to resolve, as CEO Elon Musk’s long-term vision appears to be suggesting that a combination between Tesla and SpaceX ( SPACE ) could also be in the works, after SpaceX’s upcoming IPO is done and dusted late...
Getty Images Tesla: Double Down On Highly Uncertain Payoffs? Is Tesla Inc. ( TSLA ) an automotive company? A rocket company or a robotics company? These questions are becoming harder and harder to resolve, as CEO Elon Musk’s long-term vision appears to be suggesting that a combination between Tesla and SpaceX ( SPACE ) could also be in the works, after SpaceX’s upcoming IPO is done and dusted later this year. Instead of making it easier for us to understand Tesla’s business model, I believe bringing all these disparate businesses together into one entity is going to make it even harder for us to assess and analyze, and more importantly, to try to value them accordingly, given the uncertain payoffs related to things like FSD, Optimus, and orbital data centers, and now Musk’s big chipmaking plans at a massive scale never attempted before. But with a forward price-earnings multiple of >174x, investors seem to have baked in lofty optimism against its core automotive business, having already shown signs of much slower growth. And the fact that most of its operating profits are still being printed in the automotive business will bring investors back to reality whenever Tesla releases its quarterly earnings without showing compelling proof that they are making incredible progress in the other growth pillars that have defined their extreme multiples. I last wrote that I thought it was about time for me to downgrade TSLA , and I thought it was well timed. Since then, Elon Musk has made progress hyping up his company even more, adding unprecedented chipmaking ambitions, having terafab into Tesla’s blueprint to resolve the supposed chip crunch that is facing the company. Yet, investors haven’t stopped taking profits since late 2025, and TSLA is officially down almost 30% through last week’s bottom. In any case, if you missed it, note that if you thought Tesla ramping up its expected CapEx to $20 billion this year appears to be aggressive despite posting relatively low free cas...
Getty Images Tesla: Double Down On Highly Uncertain Payoffs? Is Tesla Inc. ( TSLA ) an automotive company? A rocket company or a robotics company? These questions are becoming harder and harder to resolve, as CEO Elon Musk’s long-term vision appears to be suggesting that a combination between Tesla and SpaceX ( SPACE ) could also be in the works, after SpaceX’s upcoming IPO is done and dusted late...
Getty Images Tesla: Double Down On Highly Uncertain Payoffs? Is Tesla Inc. ( TSLA ) an automotive company? A rocket company or a robotics company? These questions are becoming harder and harder to resolve, as CEO Elon Musk’s long-term vision appears to be suggesting that a combination between Tesla and SpaceX ( SPACE ) could also be in the works, after SpaceX’s upcoming IPO is done and dusted later this year. Instead of making it easier for us to understand Tesla’s business model, I believe bringing all these disparate businesses together into one entity is going to make it even harder for us to assess and analyze, and more importantly, to try to value them accordingly, given the uncertain payoffs related to things like FSD, Optimus, and orbital data centers, and now Musk’s big chipmaking plans at a massive scale never attempted before. But with a forward price-earnings multiple of >174x, investors seem to have baked in lofty optimism against its core automotive business, having already shown signs of much slower growth. And the fact that most of its operating profits are still being printed in the automotive business will bring investors back to reality whenever Tesla releases its quarterly earnings without showing compelling proof that they are making incredible progress in the other growth pillars that have defined their extreme multiples. I last wrote that I thought it was about time for me to downgrade TSLA , and I thought it was well timed. Since then, Elon Musk has made progress hyping up his company even more, adding unprecedented chipmaking ambitions, having terafab into Tesla’s blueprint to resolve the supposed chip crunch that is facing the company. Yet, investors haven’t stopped taking profits since late 2025, and TSLA is officially down almost 30% through last week’s bottom. In any case, if you missed it, note that if you thought Tesla ramping up its expected CapEx to $20 billion this year appears to be aggressive despite posting relatively low free cas...
StevanZZ/iStock via Getty Images Back in 2023, I published a piece on U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and SLB N.V. ( SLB ) , touting their new carbon capture businesses. Back then, Exxon CEO Darren Woods claimed that the company's Low Carbon business had higher revenue potential than its legacy oil and gas business, while Gavin Rennick, president of SLB New Energy, reported that its carbon cap...
StevanZZ/iStock via Getty Images Back in 2023, I published a piece on U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and SLB N.V. ( SLB ) , touting their new carbon capture businesses. Back then, Exxon CEO Darren Woods claimed that the company's Low Carbon business had higher revenue potential than its legacy oil and gas business, while Gavin Rennick, president of SLB New Energy, reported that its carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) business was taking off "...because the tipping point has been crossed for certain use cases ." The future of the U.S. CCUS industry appeared bright after the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) dramatically increased carbon capture credits under the Biden administration. The Trump administration has largely gutted federal support for renewable energy but preserved the Section 45Q tax credit, which provides federal subsidies for capturing and storing carbon. However, Big Oil companies have scaled back their clean energy ambitions with ESG investing no longer in vogue in the U.S., as I explained in my recent piece on Spanish renewable energy utility Iberdrola ( IBDRY ) ( IBDSF ). But other than providing CCUS services for third parties, Big Oil companies are increasingly deploying CCUS in Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2-EOR) to boost production in mature fields. Indeed, it’s around that time that Ormat Technologies ( ORA ) appeared on my radar. Ormat is a vertically integrated, independent power producer (IPP) that develops geothermal power plants, recovered energy generation, and energy storage solutions. Ormat deploys CCUS in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), a technology similar to EOR in its approach to manipulating underground formations. The company has a total generating portfolio of 1,630 MW, comprising 1,340 MW of Geothermal & Solar plus 290 MW of Energy Storage. The U.S. market accounts for the majority of the company’s power generation assets and battery energy storage systems ( BESS ). Similar to CCUS, geothermal is the rare rene...
Sign up now! Sign up now! Sign up now? Sign up now! Like a Christmas day can of John West tuna chunks for one with an accompanying bottle of champagne and war movie triple-bill chez Richard Keys, Tottenham Hotspur Football Club is the gift that keeps on giving. Like Gregory Peck’s crack commando unit attempting to silence the eponymous guns of Navarone, Spurs currently find themselves in an extrem...
Sign up now! Sign up now! Sign up now? Sign up now! Like a Christmas day can of John West tuna chunks for one with an accompanying bottle of champagne and war movie triple-bill chez Richard Keys, Tottenham Hotspur Football Club is the gift that keeps on giving. Like Gregory Peck’s crack commando unit attempting to silence the eponymous guns of Navarone, Spurs currently find themselves in an extremely high-stakes race against time only to be repeatedly thwarted at every turn by a mixture of internal sabotage, the at times unbearable burden of leadership and immense dissatisfaction among the rank and file. The mission? To escape an ignominious, financially ruinous slide into the Championship. The plan? A chaotic improvisation that suggests the club hierarchy are just making things up as they go along, one ill-judged managerial appointment at a time. I’m delighted to hear of Mr Roy’s return to the touchline but it raises a question for me. As a philistine who only learned of his TBOF (two banks or four) in Friday’s Football Daily, I’m compelled to ask how it differs from fellow England alumnus Mike Bassett’s FFFR (four, four, flippin’ two)“ – Simon Riley. A double doff of the cap to Big Paper’s Jonathan Wilson this weekend. Firstly, for pointing out that ‘in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, the clearest signal England were done for was Jordan Henderson gamely running shuttles as Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Ivan Rakitic knocked the ball round him’ a whole eight years before Tommy Tuchel picked him for the game against Uruguay . And, secondly, for hoping that most readers would know, or could be bothered to Google, what the ‘Gaia hypothesis’ is, in the very same piece. Never change, Wilson, never change” – Noble Francis. So Tudor lasted 44 days at Spurs (with some compassionate extension). Bloody hell, that was shorter than Liz Truss’s tenure in charge of the government. At least he didn’t spaff £65bn in the process, so the experiment might be deemed a success if one...
J. Michael Jones Signet Jewelers ( SIG ) was added as a new short idea at Hedgeye with the potential for 50% downside longer-term. "The Consensus bear case on SIG around lab grown diamonds has been wrong, as it has been gross profit accretive and has driven the stock higher," Hedgeye analyst Brian McGough wrote in a note on Sunday. " But our research suggests that this tailwind turns into a massiv...
J. Michael Jones Signet Jewelers ( SIG ) was added as a new short idea at Hedgeye with the potential for 50% downside longer-term. "The Consensus bear case on SIG around lab grown diamonds has been wrong, as it has been gross profit accretive and has driven the stock higher," Hedgeye analyst Brian McGough wrote in a note on Sunday. " But our research suggests that this tailwind turns into a massive headwind that takes the current 6% margin level closer to zero, which will come with a dividend cut, and accelerated store closures." McGough added. Signet ( SIG ) has short interest of 14%. Shares of Signet fell 1.1%. More on Signet Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Signet Jewelers: Resilient Earnings Make Shares Attractive Signet Jewelers: More Than Engagements Under The Surface Jefferies likes these consumer stocks if the Iran conflict is resolved Signet outlines $6.6B-$6.9B revenue target and brand integration moves amid strategic portfolio shift
filmestria/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I've been writing about the automotive-correlated safety and replacement part/parts industry for some time. Over the years, I've not only covered giants like Autoliv, Inc. ( ALV ), in which I have a position to date, but also companies like Aptiv PLC ( APTV ), as well as spare parts and specialized parts or component companies like Magna International I...
filmestria/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I've been writing about the automotive-correlated safety and replacement part/parts industry for some time. Over the years, I've not only covered giants like Autoliv, Inc. ( ALV ), in which I have a position to date, but also companies like Aptiv PLC ( APTV ), as well as spare parts and specialized parts or component companies like Magna International Inc. ( MGA ) and Lear Corporation ( LEA ), or even BorgWarner Inc. ( BWA ). Even smaller French companies like Valeo have been under my microscope. The automotive industry is an ecosystem that is technically and fundamentally attractive to be a part of at the right valuation. Unfortunately, for the past 10 years, this sector and industry have gone through a massive renaissance that has made investing in the companies mentioned (and the automotive manufacturers themselves) far more problematic than before. I was perhaps a bit too slow to recognize this challenge in most of the sub-sectors and manufacturers, but now that I see it, I'm very careful about moving in the sector. It's no secret that cars have increasingly gone from being what were not that long ago mechanical contraptions with a bit of computer to what I would consider computers with mechanical components. This is a very big shift in what “makes cars,” in my view. Someone like me grew up with the notion that a car is something you can buy, and with a good bit of maintenance, some elbow grease, and a fair bit of love, a car can last 20 years—maybe longer. That is, as I argue now, no longer the case for new cars. Chips, connectors, EV drivetrains, and other components have made cars assets that I don't view as making sense for owning (for personal use) any longer. It's why I don't “own” an EV and why my current automobiles are what I would consider the “last generation” of the mechanical automobile with computers—though I will admit, many of them are on the heavily computerized side. You can find my latest article on...
Worawith Ounpeng/iStock via Getty Images US economic growth in the first quarter is still expected to rebound from the sluggish rise in Q4, but macro storm clouds are gathering for Q2 as the war in Iran continues. The current nowcast for Q1 indicates an annualized 2.1% increase, based on the median estimate from a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. On that basis, growth will recove...
Worawith Ounpeng/iStock via Getty Images US economic growth in the first quarter is still expected to rebound from the sluggish rise in Q4, but macro storm clouds are gathering for Q2 as the war in Iran continues. The current nowcast for Q1 indicates an annualized 2.1% increase, based on the median estimate from a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. On that basis, growth will recover some of the lost momentum in Q4, when the economy expanded by a weak 0.7%. Today’s Q1 estimate is down slightly from the previous update (Mar. 16). Further downgrades are possible, if not likely, between today and April 30, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its initial GDP estimate for Q1. Most of the economic data for the first three months of the year are expected to reflect pre-war activity. Although it’s unclear how the war has affected output in March, the fallout will probably be limited. PMI survey data, however, suggest a non-trivial headwind in March. The US Composite PMI Output Index, a GDP proxy, fell to 51.4 this month, an 11-month low that reflects a weak growth bias. “The flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy, today writes: “Financial markets in the United States are pricing in a longer duration of the war in the Middle East. Our RSM US Financial Conditions Index, which has been decelerating since early February, has turned negative, implying a modest drag on growth.” Deciding if a modest drag on growth deteriorates into something worse for Q2 will be determined by how the war evolves in the days and weeks ahead. Perhaps the only calculus that’s reliable at this point: the longer the conflict persists, the greater the economic damage. The odds still suggest the US will avoid a recession starting ...
Canada has awarded about $1.5 billion in long-term support contracts to L3Harris Technologies ( LHX ) and Airbus ( EADSF ) ( EADSY ) as part of a broader effort to strengthen defense capabilities. The agreements cover maintenance and technical support for the country’s incoming CC-330 Husky fleet, which will handle refueling, transport, medical evacuation and other strategic missions. L3Harris ( L...
Canada has awarded about $1.5 billion in long-term support contracts to L3Harris Technologies ( LHX ) and Airbus ( EADSF ) ( EADSY ) as part of a broader effort to strengthen defense capabilities. The agreements cover maintenance and technical support for the country’s incoming CC-330 Husky fleet, which will handle refueling, transport, medical evacuation and other strategic missions. L3Harris ( LHX ) secured two contracts worth roughly $1.1 billion to provide maintenance services, while Airbus ( EADSF ) ( EADSY ) will receive $374 million to deliver engineering and airworthiness support. Canada ordered nine Husky aircraft in 2023, including new and converted Airbus ( EADSF ) ( EADSY ) A330 models, in a deal valued at $3.6 billion. The fleet is expected to replace the aging CC-150 Polaris planes, with the first delivery scheduled for 2027. Officials said the support program could sustain or create about 720 jobs across Ontario, Quebec and Alberta. Procurement Minister Joel Lightbound said the investment is intended to keep the fleet ready for emerging threats, protect national interests and support allied commitments globally. The contracts follow a broader increase in defense spending under Prime Minister Mark Carney , who recently confirmed Canada will meet NATO’s 2% spending target in 2025 and aims to reach 5% by 2035. More on L3Harris Technologies, Airbus SE L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX) Presents at JPMorgan Industrials Conference 2026 Transcript Airbus: Weak Deliveries Raise Questions About The 2026 Target Boeing And Airbus Deliveries Weakness Show Critical Challenge: What's Going On? Rising oil prices may revive Airbus Super Puma, spur offshore expansion NATO is at a breaking point with defense spending on the line
Soybeans are trading with 1 to 3 cent gains on Monday AM trade. Futures closed the Friday session with contracts down 5 to 14 ½ cents in most front months, as May was down 2 cents last week. Open interest was up 1,748 contracts on Friday. The cmdtyView national average...
Soybeans are trading with 1 to 3 cent gains on Monday AM trade. Futures closed the Friday session with contracts down 5 to 14 ½ cents in most front months, as May was down 2 cents last week. Open interest was up 1,748 contracts on Friday. The cmdtyView national average...