Pornpimone Audkamkong/iStock via Getty Images By Mandy Xu Cross-Asset Volatility: Implied volatilities gained across asset classes last week as the Iran war dragged into its fourth week. Oil volatility increased, with WTI 1M implied vol up 10 pts to 81% on the back of continued demand for upside calls as traders positioned for potential prolonged disruption to oil supply. Gold volatility jumped hi...
Pornpimone Audkamkong/iStock via Getty Images By Mandy Xu Cross-Asset Volatility: Implied volatilities gained across asset classes last week as the Iran war dragged into its fourth week. Oil volatility increased, with WTI 1M implied vol up 10 pts to 81% on the back of continued demand for upside calls as traders positioned for potential prolonged disruption to oil supply. Gold volatility jumped higher, with GLD 1M implied vol increasing over 9 pts to near a 5-year high of 41%. As we highlighted last week, positioning in gold options has shifted notably, with demand for puts picking up in recent weeks amidst the geopolitical turmoil. GLD 1M skew (25-delta ratio) has steepened to almost a 10-year high after being persistently inverted for most of the past two years. Rates volatility gained modestly as traders weighed the higher inflation backdrop with the hit to the growth outlook, while credit volatility continued its upward climb. VIXHY Index has more than tripled since the beginning of the year to a high of 320 bps vol – higher than the Q4 2018 growth scare (when SPX Index sold off 20%). Equity Volatility: The VIX Index jumped 4.3 pts to 31% last week, ending the week at its highest level since last year’s April sell-off. Notably, however, there’s been very little panic in the options market. Even when SPX Index fell 3.4% on Thu/Fri, the bid to volatility came more from the upside than the downside as investors positioned for a potential rebound (aka “the TACO Trade”). In fact, put skew and put convexity both declined as investors used the pullback to monetize existing hedges. SPX 1M put skew (25-delta vs. 50-delta ratio) has now fallen to near a 1-year low (2nd percentile over the past year). Instead, we saw demand for upside calls pick up going into the weekend, adding almost 2 pts to the 5.7 pt increase in the VIX Index on Thu/Fri. See Exhibit 2. Will the “TACO Trade” work this time? The optimism in the equity options market contrasts with the caution we’re seei...
JHVEPhoto New phase 3 data found that Merck's oral PCSK9 inhibitor, enlicitide decanoate, led to greater lowering of l ow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) compared to oral non-statin medicines. The CORALreef AddOn study compared enlicitide to ezetimibe, Esperion Therapeutics' ( ESPR ) Nexletol (bempedoic acid), and a combination of the two drugs. At eight weeks, enlicitide reduced LDL-C by ...
JHVEPhoto New phase 3 data found that Merck's oral PCSK9 inhibitor, enlicitide decanoate, led to greater lowering of l ow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) compared to oral non-statin medicines. The CORALreef AddOn study compared enlicitide to ezetimibe, Esperion Therapeutics' ( ESPR ) Nexletol (bempedoic acid), and a combination of the two drugs. At eight weeks, enlicitide reduced LDL-C by 64.6% from baseline when added to statin treatment. Other data showed that enlicitide cut LDL-C by 56.7% versus bempedoic acid; 36% versus ezetimibe; and 28.1% versus bempedoic acid with ezetimibe. Secondary endpoints, such as reductions in apolipoprotein B and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol vs. bempedoic acid, ezetimibe, and bempedoic acid/ezetimibe, were also met. In December, enlicitide was granted an FDA Commissioner National Priority Voucher. While two PCSK9 inhibitors are already marketed—Amgen's ( AMGN ) Repatha (evolocumab) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' ( REGN ) Praluent (alirocumab)—they are both given via injection. More on Merck Merck: Aggressive M&A Efforts To Prepare For A Keytruda Patent Cliff Merck's Deal For Terns And Its Stellar CML Drug Candidate Looks Like Good Business Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) M&A Call Transcript Former CDC advisor says White House pulling back on vaccine policy Anti-vaccine group asks RFK Jr. to add more vaccine injuries to compensation program
grandriver/iStock via Getty Images ProPetro ( PUMP ) is little changed in Monday's trading as Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $18 price target, saying the company is "in a sweet spot with cyclical upside in completions" in 2027 and beyond and an inflection in its new PROPWR power business starting in H2 2026. BofA analysts led by Saurabh Pant forecast ProPetro's ( PUMP ) r...
grandriver/iStock via Getty Images ProPetro ( PUMP ) is little changed in Monday's trading as Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $18 price target, saying the company is "in a sweet spot with cyclical upside in completions" in 2027 and beyond and an inflection in its new PROPWR power business starting in H2 2026. BofA analysts led by Saurabh Pant forecast ProPetro's ( PUMP ) relative adjusted EBITDA in the Completions and Power businesses to evolve to 61%-39% by 2030, vs. 100% Completions currently; importantly, Power unit growth will not strain ProPetro's balance sheet because of strong free cash flow from Completions and early EBITDA/FCF generation from the Power business. Pant and the other BofA analysts believe 2026 likely will be the current cycle trough for U.S. Completions activity and expect activity and, more importantly, pricing to start recovering in 2027-28, boosting adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Of note, the bank forecasts the Completions segment's free cash flow to grow from $94M in 2026 to $170M in 2027 and $270M in 2028, which helps finance the growth of the PROPWR business without adding much new or external debt to ProPetro's ( PUMP ) balance sheet. More on ProPetro ProPetro Q4 2025 Earnings Call Presentation ProPetro Standing Out From Frac Peers With Power Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on ProPetro
Getty Images The market wants to remain optimistic Since the U.S./Israel–Iran war broke out, I have never downplayed its consequences on the global economy. This war is not an easy regime change but a matter of hegemony in the Middle East, as well as a conflict between different religions. Its end is not just up to the U.S., but it depends on multiple countries, Iran and Israel above all. However,...
Getty Images The market wants to remain optimistic Since the U.S./Israel–Iran war broke out, I have never downplayed its consequences on the global economy. This war is not an easy regime change but a matter of hegemony in the Middle East, as well as a conflict between different religions. Its end is not just up to the U.S., but it depends on multiple countries, Iran and Israel above all. However, as the conflict intensifies, new forces are entering the scene, and this makes the resolution of it even more complicated. The main U.S. stock market indices reached the correction territory (from -10% to -19.90%) last week, and investors are wondering if we are going to face a new bear market anytime soon. I don’t have the crystal ball, but my opinion is that the likelihood of a recession is increasing dramatically. During the Russia–Ukraine war, the S&P 500 Index ( SP500 ) dropped about 25% from the all-time high, and I believe that the current conflict is much more serious both in terms of energy supply chain disruption and casualties. While I am writing (Monday morning), the U.S. stock market is heading higher (+80%) as President Trump announced that great progress has been made to reach the much-awaited ceasefire: The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” So, the $1 million question is: have we reached the bottom? I don’t think so because evidence tells me that the ceasefire is actually slipping away. As long as oil prices keep increasing and remain firmly above $100 ...
Financial Conduct Authority says millions of claims will be paid up this year and vast majority settled by end of 2027 Car finance victims to get average £830 payout Millions of victims of the UK’s car finance scandal will receive payouts this year, the City regulator has confirmed. But the number of car loans judged to be unfair has been cut by more than 2 million, meaning fewer people will benef...
Financial Conduct Authority says millions of claims will be paid up this year and vast majority settled by end of 2027 Car finance victims to get average £830 payout Millions of victims of the UK’s car finance scandal will receive payouts this year, the City regulator has confirmed. But the number of car loans judged to be unfair has been cut by more than 2 million, meaning fewer people will benefit, while the average payout has increased to about £830 per agreement. Continue reading...
Stockah The long-standing assumption of consumer packaged goods (CPG) as a reliable defensive play for investors is being challenged by intensifying headwinds and changing dynamics, some of which are fleeting, others more durable. A team of analysts at Deutsche Bank led by Steve Powers examines how established beliefs within the CPG sector are being undermined by macroeconomic and geopolitical dev...
Stockah The long-standing assumption of consumer packaged goods (CPG) as a reliable defensive play for investors is being challenged by intensifying headwinds and changing dynamics, some of which are fleeting, others more durable. A team of analysts at Deutsche Bank led by Steve Powers examines how established beliefs within the CPG sector are being undermined by macroeconomic and geopolitical developments and which names are best positioned to outperform. Powers and team list several headwinds that are adversely shaping the CPG landscape today. “Cumulatively, we see their increasing convergence and intersection in today’s marketplace as something different and likely lasting—pressuring CPG fundamentals, weighing on CPG valuations, and widening the gap between ‘winners’ and ‘losers,’” Powers writes. The Emergence of Privately Held Brands: The rise of contract manufacturing, third-party logistics, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce has made it possible for new brands to launch and scale with a fraction of the historical capital. “The constant influx of new entrants creates a hyper-competitive environment for brand loyalty and can erode incumbent price premiums and market share,” Powers and team say. Slower Population Growth & Aging Demographics : Population growth has historically been the primary driver of growth in the CPG sector. With global population growth decelerating and populations aging, Deutsche believes slower population growth likely represents “a firm and arguably lasting governor on long-run organic growth potential for the industry.” Increasing “Value-Seeking” Behavior & the K-Shaped Economy: While higher-income households support premiumization, a large and financially pressured low-end-to-middle-range consumer creates “a persistent gravitational pull toward value and private label offerings.” Expansion of GLP-1 Drugs: “For packaged food and some beverage companies, the widespread adoption of GLP-1 drugs likely represents a real threat to industries w...
gradyreese/iStock via Getty Images The Calamos Dynamic Convertible and Income Fund ( CCD ) is a closed-end fund designed to provide investors with income through exposure to convertible and corporate bonds, diversified across multiple sectors through strategic asset allocation. The strategy has the ability to provide investors with equity-like exposure as part of their fixed income allocation, pot...
gradyreese/iStock via Getty Images The Calamos Dynamic Convertible and Income Fund ( CCD ) is a closed-end fund designed to provide investors with income through exposure to convertible and corporate bonds, diversified across multiple sectors through strategic asset allocation. The strategy has the ability to provide investors with equity-like exposure as part of their fixed income allocation, potentially geared towards risk-taking investors seeking differentiated returns. With global supply chains being disrupted by the Iranian war, the equity markets have faced significant pressure, resulting in negative pricing action for CCD. Despite the near-term headwinds, I believe investors may opportunistically build a position in CCD with the expectation of a market turnaround as events in the Middle East are resolved; I am recommending CCD with a Buy rating. Before purchasing shares, investors should consider the risks involved in holding CCD, as the strategy’s performance may be significantly influenced by further equity price decline. Investment Thesis for CCD Fundamentally, convertibles will inherently trade similarly to the equity markets given the underlying structure of the bonds. Convertible bonds are generally linked to the value of the underlying shares based on the conversion rate, or the rate at which the bond will convert into shares at the time of maturity. As a result of this, these bond issuances may generally trade similarly to the equity markets, presenting investors with differentiated performance with respect to investment-grade and plain vanilla issuances. While this can be an appealing feature during periods of positive pricing action in the equity markets, the bonds may face similar directional change when the equity markets sell off, as exhibited in the total return chart below. Comparing 6-month performance, CCD has far outpaced the S&P 500 ( SPX ), though it has recently experienced a similar sell-off in recent weeks, likely the result of the glob...
Israel’s Parliament on Monday passed a law approving the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis. The bill’s passage marked a major victory for Israel’s far-right, which has pushed hard for the measure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to the chamber to vote yes in person. The law makes the death penalty – by hanging – the default punishment for West Bank Palestinians c...
Israel’s Parliament on Monday passed a law approving the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis. The bill’s passage marked a major victory for Israel’s far-right, which has pushed hard for the measure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to the chamber to vote yes in person. The law makes the death penalty – by hanging – the default punishment for West Bank Palestinians convicted for nationalistic killings. The law also gives Israeli courts the authority to impose...
Meta Platforms ( META ) has begun testing a premium subscription on its Instagram app that would give users exclusive features, TechCrunch reported. The subscription, known as Instagram Plus, would offer users the ability to view an Instagram Story without letting the poster know it has been used. The offering would also let subscribers see how many times a person has viewed their Story, the news ...
Meta Platforms ( META ) has begun testing a premium subscription on its Instagram app that would give users exclusive features, TechCrunch reported. The subscription, known as Instagram Plus, would offer users the ability to view an Instagram Story without letting the poster know it has been used. The offering would also let subscribers see how many times a person has viewed their Story, the news outlet added . Meta confirmed the testing to the news outlet. Another feature of the subscription would be letting users create unlimited audience lists for Stories, while another feature lets Stories be viewed beyond the current limit of 24 hours. The news outlet added that the feature is being tested in Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines, with pricing varying by country. Instagram has approximately 3B monthly active users and may account for approximately 40% of Meta's total revenue, according to Business of Apps . Meta did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Seeking Alpha. More on Meta Meta: Why I'm Waiting For $450 Meta: A Deeper Look At Its Capex Burdens Meta: I'm More Than Willing To Catch The Falling Knife Now Meta’s technical breakdown worsens amid ongoing selloff Meta’s court losses spell potential trouble for AI research, consumer safety: report
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has been one of the market’s most volatile and closely watched names over the past year. Incorporated in July 2003, the American multinational automotive company headquartered in Austin, Texas, has delivered strong long-term gains. What has helped it? It’s optimism around ...
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has been one of the market’s most volatile and closely watched names over the past year. Incorporated in July 2003, the American multinational automotive company headquartered in Austin, Texas, has delivered strong long-term gains. What has helped it? It’s optimism around ...