Gulf allies of the United States, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are urging President Donald Trump to continue prosecuting the war against Iran, arguing that Tehran has not been weakened enough by the month-long US-led bombing campaign, according to US, Gulf and Israeli officials. After private grumbling at the start of the war that they were not given adequate advance notice of...
Gulf allies of the United States, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are urging President Donald Trump to continue prosecuting the war against Iran, arguing that Tehran has not been weakened enough by the month-long US-led bombing campaign, according to US, Gulf and Israeli officials. After private grumbling at the start of the war that they were not given adequate advance notice of the US-Israeli attack and complaining the US had ignored their warnings that the war would have...
TexBr/iStock via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang , Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan Semiconductor output rose firmly thanks to high-end memory chip production Korea’s industrial production rebounded more than expected by 5.4% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, in February (vs. revised -2.4% in January, 1.5% market consensus). The output rebound was concentrated in the semiconductor sector (2...
TexBr/iStock via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang , Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan Semiconductor output rose firmly thanks to high-end memory chip production Korea’s industrial production rebounded more than expected by 5.4% month-on-month, seasonally adjusted, in February (vs. revised -2.4% in January, 1.5% market consensus). The output rebound was concentrated in the semiconductor sector (28.2%), more than offsetting declines in electronics (-7%) and autos (-1.4%). We believe external demand for AI chips remains strong, but supply chain disruptions and rising input costs may slow activity if the Iran war continues. Chip output increased as manufacturers focused on high-end chips Source: CEIC Middle East conflict affected activity in March, making the outlook uncertain Naphtha shortages are a major concern for the petrochemical sector for now. But second-round impacts will likely affect more manufacturing sectors. The government restricted naphtha exports starting March 27, but this merely balances import shortages. Markets estimate that naphtha exports account for about 10% of total supply. Their role as feedstock for petrochemicals could significantly disrupt manufacturing supply chains. Although alternative supply sources may help, the manufacturing sector could still face higher costs. Our 2Q26 GDP forecast has been revised downward since the war began. Downside risks have increased for the second quarter and beyond. Investment also rose firmly in February Facility investment gained 13.5% in February, with transportation equipment (40.4%) and machinery (3.8%) up. Construction investment also rose 19.5%, with both building (17.1%) and civil engineering (25.7%) rising sharply. Forward-looking orders data showed improvement. In a three-month comparison, machinery and construction orders rose by 2.6% and 17.4%, respectively. March exports will continue to outperform amid strong chip demand We expect exports to rise quite sharply by 47% in March. The first 20 d...