RichLegg/iStock via Getty Images The March jobs report was much better than expected. The 178,000 payrolls rise was above even the highest economist’s estimate and was the best gain since December 2024. Of course, there may have been some positive payback from weak early-year labor market trends driven by one-off factors. The three-month average number of jobs created is now 68,000 (above the perc...
RichLegg/iStock via Getty Images The March jobs report was much better than expected. The 178,000 payrolls rise was above even the highest economist’s estimate and was the best gain since December 2024. Of course, there may have been some positive payback from weak early-year labor market trends driven by one-off factors. The three-month average number of jobs created is now 68,000 (above the perceived breakeven level required to keep the unemployment rate steady). Just 7,000 jobs were taken off from January and February, softer than the trend from the past eight months. The unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.441% in February to 4.256% in March. The U-6 “underemployment” rate, however, rose to 8.0%. Average hourly earnings were particularly weak, up just 0.2% in March from February, bringing the year-over-year rate to just 3.5%--the lowest since May 2021. Average hours worked slipped to 34.2 per week from 34.3. Elsewhere, manufacturing employment rose by 15,000, the most since November 2023, and the Health Care sector was responsible for 76,000 of the headline NFP gain. What's more, the government shed 8,000 positions last month. The number of permanent job losers fell to 1.9 million, while the percentage of unemployed workers for more than 27 weeks rose to 25.4% from 25.3% in February. The prime age labor force participation rate inched lower to 83.8% from 83.9%. In markets, equity futures took their cue from the bond market. Treasury yields rose in electronic trading, putting downward pressure on S&P 500 futures (which closed at 9:15 a.m. ET for Good Friday). March Unemployment Rate Falls, Big Headline Jobs Gain BLS Massive beat +178k March jobs... best since December 2024 Trading Economics The economy added an average of 15,000 jobs over the past six months and 68,000 per month so far in 2026 Nick Timiraos +186k private payrolls... best since December 2024 Trading Economics Very cool: Average hourly earnings just +3.5% YoY... lowest since May 2021 Trading Econ...
Pla2na Nearly six years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the underlying inflation process in advanced economies has fundamentally shifted, even as headline consumer price inflation has declined substantially from its 2021–2022 peaks. According to the Federal Reserve in a recent Fed Note , inflation remains “unusually widespread across categories” despite headline numbers in several econom...
Pla2na Nearly six years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the underlying inflation process in advanced economies has fundamentally shifted, even as headline consumer price inflation has declined substantially from its 2021–2022 peaks. According to the Federal Reserve in a recent Fed Note , inflation remains “unusually widespread across categories” despite headline numbers in several economies moving closer to central bank targets. François de Soyres, chief for Advanced Foreign Economics in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, wrote that price pressures remain elevated across a broad set of goods and services relative to the pre-pandemic period, raising questions about whether this environment reflects a temporary normalization or a lasting change. The breadth of inflation pressures tells a striking story, he said. At the 2022 peak, “nearly 80% of CPI subcomponents had inflation above 3%,” driven by pandemic-induced demand-supply imbalances. Headline inflation and core inflation (Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations) While this share has declined since then, Fed researchers found it remains “elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels” in all four economies studied—the U.S., the euro area, Canada, and the United Kingdom—with deflation becoming less common across the board. Perhaps the most significant finding concerns what the authors describe as a weakening relationship between falling prices and aggregate core inflation. The analysis indicated that “the presence of disinflationary components is doing less to pull down aggregate core inflation than it did before the pandemic,” resulting in persistently positive residuals in their models. As the researchers explain, this result “reflects a shift in the association between aggregate inflation and the distribution of price changes across categories, suggesting that the underlying inflation process may be evolving.” Decomposing the data by sector, the re...
Hegseth Ousts Chief Of The Army As Iran War Persists The Pentagon shake-up under Trump has not ended, as on Thursday Pete Hegseth has dismissed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, asking him to step down into early retirement . The move is unusual, given this is the head of the Army and the United States is past the one-moth mark in Trump's Operation Epic Fury. A reason hasn't been given as to ...
Hegseth Ousts Chief Of The Army As Iran War Persists The Pentagon shake-up under Trump has not ended, as on Thursday Pete Hegseth has dismissed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, asking him to step down into early retirement . The move is unusual, given this is the head of the Army and the United States is past the one-moth mark in Trump's Operation Epic Fury. A reason hasn't been given as to what amounts to Gen. George being effectively fired . CBS writes , "One of the sources said Hegseth wants someone in the role who will implement President Trump and Hegseth's vision for the Army ." A top defense official has also said: "We are grateful for his service, but it was time for a leadership change in the Army." The chief of the Army is typically a four-year term, and already there's speculation over who will be the likely candidate to lead next: The current vice chief of staff of the Army, Gen. Christopher LaNeve, who was formerly Hegseth's military aide, will likely be considered as a replacement. He previously served as the commanding general of the Army's 82nd Airborne Division from 2022 to 2023. The U.S. Military Academy at West Point posted photos on social media on Thursday of George, saying he "shared experience-driven guidance with cadets preparing to lead" during a visit. There's been s ome serious background controversy over the last weeks among top command ranks regarding the Trump admin's preferences : Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is blocking the promotion of four Army officers to be one-star generals, a highly unusual move that has prompted some senior military officials to question whether the officers are being singled out because of their race or gender. Two of the officers targeted by Mr. Hegseth are Black and two are women on a promotion list that consists of about three dozen officers, most of whom are white men, senior military officials said. Mr. Hegseth had been pressing senior Army leaders, including Army Secretary Daniel P. Driscoll, for...
Yahoo Finance's "Market Madness" tournament has whittled down the competition of top-performing companies, pairing Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) against Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) against Walmart (WMT) in today's matchups.Carnegie Investment Counsel director of research Greg Halter decides who will move on to the Final Four in this clash of the corporations, detailing his reasoning and...
Yahoo Finance's "Market Madness" tournament has whittled down the competition of top-performing companies, pairing Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) against Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) against Walmart (WMT) in today's matchups.Carnegie Investment Counsel director of research Greg Halter decides who will move on to the Final Four in this clash of the corporations, detailing his reasoning and analysis behind each company's stock and growth drivers.
Getty Images I began discussing troubling signs and problems in the market early in the year. This was around when the initial volatility phase over Greenland transpired. I highlighted renewed tariff-related concerns and rising geopolitical risks as the primary factors for increased near term caution. Moreover, I also discussed worsening technical conditions and valuation concerns. While many stoc...
Getty Images I began discussing troubling signs and problems in the market early in the year. This was around when the initial volatility phase over Greenland transpired. I highlighted renewed tariff-related concerns and rising geopolitical risks as the primary factors for increased near term caution. Moreover, I also discussed worsening technical conditions and valuation concerns. While many stock valuations seemed reasonable from an intermediate and longer term standpoint, multiple compression due to worsening market sentiment was a real threat. Then came the Kevin Warsh nomination for the Fed Chairman position, which became one of the triggers for the gold and silver market crash. I called the nomination a potential policy error , as the market perceives Warsh as a relatively hawkish fella. At least from the market's point of view, it would have preferred a Fed Chair that was presumably more dovish. Then we witnessed the " SaaSpocalypse " period, which caused many well established software companies, including Microsoft ( MSFT ), Oracle ( ORCL ), Salesforce ( CRM ), and others essentially crash. Of course, this was all before the "main event," the Iran conflict, which has enabled oil prices to surge to over $100 for the first time since 2022. We should also consider that high oil prices played a significant role in increasing inflation, which then led to the Fed hiking rates more aggressively, ultimately resulting in a bear market in equities in 2022. So, it may be an understatement to say that the market has had a lot to deal with in Q1. More recently, it's become almost absurd with the war. There is so much conflicting information, that the market has essentially behaved like a pinball machine. S&P 500 1-Year Chart SPX (Stock Charts ) One day, the market may be down several percent due to a negative headline, and the next minute it may surge by 4-5% because the President comes out with a deescalating sounding "tweet." This type of absurdity occurred one Monday ...
Stock futures have slipped while Treasury yields pressed higher during Friday’s holiday trading session after a hotter-than-expected jobs report raised more questions about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest-rate cut this year.
Stock futures have slipped while Treasury yields pressed higher during Friday’s holiday trading session after a hotter-than-expected jobs report raised more questions about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver an interest-rate cut this year.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett discusses the policy points he sees supporting the labor market as the US added 178,000 jobs in March, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. (Source: Bloomberg)
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett discusses the policy points he sees supporting the labor market as the US added 178,000 jobs in March, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. (Source: Bloomberg)
Global X - Silver Miners ETF (NYSEMKT:SIL) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT:GLD) differ sharply on recent performance, cost, and portfolio exposure. SIL tracks silver mining stocks with higher risk and reward, while GLD offers a lower-cost, highly liquid route to gold bullion prices. SIL and GLD both target precious metals exposure, but they do so in fundamentally different ways. This comparison look...
Global X - Silver Miners ETF (NYSEMKT:SIL) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT:GLD) differ sharply on recent performance, cost, and portfolio exposure. SIL tracks silver mining stocks with higher risk and reward, while GLD offers a lower-cost, highly liquid route to gold bullion prices. SIL and GLD both target precious metals exposure, but they do so in fundamentally different ways. This comparison looks at how each fund’s approach impacts cost, performance, risk, and what’s actually inside, to help investors understand which may better suit a given portfolio. Continue reading
Inok/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Back when I first covered Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. ( WPM ), I highlighted their solid but relatively risky exposure to gold and silver, with a leading growth pipeline, strong financials, and a good track record, rating them a Hold since their stock was trading around a fair value for the commodity prices we saw back then. With the stock up as a result...
Inok/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Back when I first covered Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. ( WPM ), I highlighted their solid but relatively risky exposure to gold and silver, with a leading growth pipeline, strong financials, and a good track record, rating them a Hold since their stock was trading around a fair value for the commodity prices we saw back then. With the stock up as a result of their strong performance tied to the jump in gold and silver prices, WPM remains a Hold, trading slightly above what I would consider a fair value (same as before), while the company’s overall quality makes it worth paying attention to despite the geographic exposure and broader macro risks. Foundation Still Shines Wheaton Precious Metals IR WPM’s 2025 was solid overall, with sales nearly doubling from $1.28 billion in 2024 to $2.31 billion in 2025 and net earnings nearly tripling to $1.47 billion, further highlighting the kind of leverage this type of company offers, beating their gold high-end production guidance ( alongside the market’s estimates ) by ~6.74% and ~22.41% for other metals, with silver production near the top of the expectations, for a beat of ~3.23% on a GEO basis. Wheaton Precious Metals IR We can see a significant jump in FCF as a result of the increase in production and especially commodity prices, with significant investments in mineral stream interests - which more than doubled to $1.34 billion - while the dividend was a very sustainable ~$296.37 million last year and recently got increased by ~18%, for a ~0.57% yield. Wheaton Precious Metals IR WPM’s growth pipeline remains one of the main advantages compared to peers, with several investments made in recent history fueling their near-term growth, expected to expand their GEO (gold equivalent ounce) production by ~50% by 2030. They expect to maintain attributable production at ~1.2 million GEOs, while maintaining their majority gold-silver exposure, which also sets them apart from most other peer...
Getty Images By Magdalena Ocampo, Market Strategist Before geopolitics moved to the foreground, AI was the dominant force shaping equity markets. By late last year, however, enthusiasm had begun to fade. Concerns around debt‑funded AI capex, circular investment dynamics among large tech firms, and elevated valuations weighed on sentiment. In February, those worries intensified as rapid AI advances...
Getty Images By Magdalena Ocampo, Market Strategist Before geopolitics moved to the foreground, AI was the dominant force shaping equity markets. By late last year, however, enthusiasm had begun to fade. Concerns around debt‑funded AI capex, circular investment dynamics among large tech firms, and elevated valuations weighed on sentiment. In February, those worries intensified as rapid AI advances threatened to disrupt incumbent digital business models, triggering a sharp sell‑off and raising questions about whether the long-running tech rally had finally peaked. That narrative reversed quickly. As conflict-driven energy shocks unsettled markets in March—hitting cyclicals and international equities particularly hard, especially in Europe and Asia—U.S. technology stocks reasserted themselves as a perceived safe haven. Semiconductors, hardware, and software stocks stabilized and, notably, even outperformed defense stocks. While this relative performance during a geopolitical shock is unusual, it reinforces the view that tech’s earnings resilience and structural growth remain attractive amid rising macro uncertainty. Yet, this renewed appetite risks obscuring important vulnerabilities. Beneath the surface, global technology supply chains—especially semiconductors—are highly exposed to geopolitical disruption, both directly through energy dependence and indirectly through critical inputs. Energy: an underappreciated chokepoint for semiconductors Semiconductor manufacturing is highly energy-intensive and depends on uninterrupted power; even brief outages can destroy wafers and halt production. This creates a significant vulnerability given the geographic concentration of advanced chipmaking. Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung dominate global supply, with Taiwan alone producing more than 90% of advanced semiconductors. Both economies are heavily reliant on imported energy, leaving this critical supply chain exposed to Middle East tensions. Around 60-70% of crude oil ...