Getty Images The approaching mega-IPO cycle will function as a transient liquidity absorber across risk assets before post-lockup wealth recycling produces a net positive medium-term impulse for both equities and crypto. $197 Billion Capital Has to Come From Somewhere In 2025, the U.S. IPO market generated $44B in total proceeds, and the past 10-year total U.S. IPO capital raise is $469B. SpaceX (...
Getty Images The approaching mega-IPO cycle will function as a transient liquidity absorber across risk assets before post-lockup wealth recycling produces a net positive medium-term impulse for both equities and crypto. $197 Billion Capital Has to Come From Somewhere In 2025, the U.S. IPO market generated $44B in total proceeds, and the past 10-year total U.S. IPO capital raise is $469B. SpaceX ( SPACE ) is currently targeting a valuation of approximately $1.75T, with an expected raise of $50B-$70B. Adding OpenAI ( OPENAI ) and Anthropic ( ANTHRO ), both of which have expressed the intention to go public this year, the aggregate capital demand reaches $104-$197B. This estimated raising amount is already assuming an initial float of around 5-10%, well below the standard of 15% of typical IPO. IPO norms typically involve offering 15-25% of shares to public markets, balancing liquidity for price discovery with continued control for founders and early investors. For example, Facebook ( META ) floated 15% and Google floated 19%. However, the total capital demand for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic would be over $400B assuming a standard 15% float, an amount almost approaching the entire US IPO market raised amounts from 2016 to 2025 combined. This has made a 15% float just impossible. Initial floats for these companies will likely be significantly smaller, with 5-10% as a realistic baseline. Source: x.com The first direct impact is the squeeze on smaller offerings this year as the market capacity is limited and selective. Karken has already paused its IPO plans until conditions improve, an early indicator of the crowding-out effect. Capital directed toward mega-IPO allocations compresses valuations for smaller-cap growth equities, Bitcoin, and crypto broadly, as investors need to fund subscriptions. In addition to capital, culturally prominent listings also absorb financial media coverage and social trading activity for retail, suppressing performance in assets competing ...
一场系统故障,揭开了自动驾驶规模化落地最脆弱的命门。 3月31日晚,武汉二环线杨泗港长江大桥附近,多辆萝卜快跑Robotaxi突然在行驶中“停摆”。闪着双闪的车辆横亘在最左侧车道上。一位现场交警表示:“萝卜快跑系统出故障了,是他们公司的问题,有百八十台。乘客按个按钮,车门可以开,但是人在环线上下不来。我们今天救了很多人。” (图源:小红书) 武汉交警通报称“初步判断为系统故障所致”,但这一轻描淡写的定性,掩盖不了更深层的拷问:当百度Apollo这个号称“技术过硬”的Robotaxi头号玩家,在真实城市交通中上演百车集体趴窝的“僵尸车”奇观,我们还能用“偶发故障”来安慰自己吗? 就在百度萝卜快跑武汉事故发生的同一个月,国内Robotaxi赛道正上演着“五虎争霸”,RoboTaxi正在加速走向普及。 小鹏汽车宣布成立Robotaxi独立业务部,计划2026年下半年载客示范运营。滴滴与广汽联合研发的Robotaxi已在广州南沙、上海嘉定实现商业化运营,并放出“2027年底部署10万辆”的豪言。文远知行2025年财报显示营收6.85亿元,Robotaxi收入同比暴涨209.6%。小马智行则在去年第四季度首次扭亏为盈,在广州实现了单车运营盈利转正。百度Apollo的萝卜快跑更是以“规模”碾压群雄:2025年第三季度订单量达310万单,同比增长212%,全球部署超1000辆Robotaxi。 在这场看似轰轰烈烈的商业化竞赛背后,隐藏着一个被集体回避的问题:当所有人都把目光投向“规模”“订单”“营收”时,谁在为“安全”兜底? 从旧金山到武汉,Robotaxi一次次集体趴窝 武汉的事故并非孤例。把目光投向大洋彼岸,Robotaxi的集体瘫痪早已不是新闻。 2025年12月20日,美国旧金山遭遇大规模停电,导致大量Waymo因无法识别失效的交通信号,纷纷启动双闪功能原地停滞,甚至一度阻挡应急通道。更早些的2023年4月,Waymo的五辆自动驾驶出租车曾因浓雾在旧金山市区街道停滞。 (图源:电车通摄制) 今年2月,洛杉矶暴雨中,两辆Waymo在洪水中“趴窝”,被网友调侃为“Waymo water than I was expecting”。 一起起事故证明,Robotaxi的“集体趴窝”已经成为一个跨地域、跨平台、跨技术路线的普遍现象。 技术路线之争:端到端比规则AI更安全? 旧金山停...
Israel Halts Arms Purchases From France In Rebuke For Iran War Stance Israel on Tuesday took the drastic step of announcing that it will halt the acquisition of defense-related goods and services from France, according to an Israeli Defense Ministry announcement. "The Director General of the Israel Ministry of Defense. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram has decided to reduce all defense procurement from ...
Israel Halts Arms Purchases From France In Rebuke For Iran War Stance Israel on Tuesday took the drastic step of announcing that it will halt the acquisition of defense-related goods and services from France, according to an Israeli Defense Ministry announcement. "The Director General of the Israel Ministry of Defense. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amir Baram has decided to reduce all defense procurement from France to zero , replacing it with domestic Israeli procurement or purchases from allied countries," a Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed . via Reuters The move is being done in direct rebuke to France's decision to not allow flights in its airspace which transport military items to Israel, or also American military flights which are directly connected to Iran war operations. A growing number of NATO and EU countries are doing this, also Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. The Israeli statement said further, "France has taken a series of actions that have harmed Israel's security and the operational capabilities of its defense industry ." "The Israel Ministry of Defense views the French government’s policy with serious concern, as it undermines security cooperation with Israel, a country that is actively operating on the front line against Iran and protecting the security of the Western world," it added. Defense ties between France and Israel were already strained going back to the Gaza war : According to a parliamentary report , France authorized more than 200 dual-use export licences to Israel in 2024 worth €76.5 million — 60 percent less than in 2023 — highlighting how limited and declining defense ties between the two countries already are. Existing contracts are expected to be honored and private companies may still pursue deals. Earlier in the day Tuesday, President Trump took France to task for being "very unhelpful" in Iran operations. "The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory," Trump sta...