Ratana21/iStock via Getty Images Fund Highlights Employs flexibility by allocating assets among core investments and opportunistic investments as market conditions change Identifies companies and securities that are believed to offer attractive relative values when compared to their fundamental credit risk Actively hedges portfolio risks, including credit, interest rate and currency, in an effort ...
Ratana21/iStock via Getty Images Fund Highlights Employs flexibility by allocating assets among core investments and opportunistic investments as market conditions change Identifies companies and securities that are believed to offer attractive relative values when compared to their fundamental credit risk Actively hedges portfolio risks, including credit, interest rate and currency, in an effort to preserve capital Consists of several broad investment categories, including high yield bonds, bank loans, special situations, structured credit and hedges Market Recap Risk assets were a source of positive returns in the fourth quarter due to a supportive U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and macroeconomic environment, coupled with healthy corporate fundamentals. Though labor conditions showed signs of weakness, inflation remained rangebound and growth expectations continued to be positive. The Fed issued two 25 basis point rate cuts, largely due to labor conditions, but conveyed a “wait and see” approach to further easing given a lack of clarity on inflation and the long-term impacts of trade policy. Corporate fundamentals remained healthy as earnings beats outpaced misses, and year-over-year credit metrics were healthy. As a result, default rates concluded the year at 1.88% for high yield bonds and 2.87% for syndicated loans, as issuers were well positioned to service their debt, with Fed policy serving as an additional tailwind on a go forward basis. Credit spreads remained at or near post global financial crisis tights across credit markets, reflective of macro and corporate fundamental conditions. Against this backdrop, high yield bonds (proxy: ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index) returned 1.35% while syndicated loans (proxy: S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index) returned 1.19%. Interest income or “carry” was the driver of total returns as net new supply increased and demand waned due to shifting rate expectations. Reflective of the shift, loan funds experienced a $4.9 bill...
Alex Wong/Getty Images News Kraft Heinz ( KHC ) shares flirted with its 50- and 100-day moving averages Wednesday after the food maker's mixed quarterly report and strategic reset, briefly dipping below the levels before reclaiming them. Changing hands at $24.96 at 1:19 p.m. ET, Kraft Heinz ( KHC ) hovered just above the 50-day MA, at $24.86, and the 100-day MA, at $24.92. The stock initially open...
Alex Wong/Getty Images News Kraft Heinz ( KHC ) shares flirted with its 50- and 100-day moving averages Wednesday after the food maker's mixed quarterly report and strategic reset, briefly dipping below the levels before reclaiming them. Changing hands at $24.96 at 1:19 p.m. ET, Kraft Heinz ( KHC ) hovered just above the 50-day MA, at $24.86, and the 100-day MA, at $24.92. The stock initially opened Wednesday's session below those closely-watched moving averages after the company said it decided to pause a previously discussed separation in favor of prioritizing profitable growth with a $600M investment. Shares have since rebounded back above the 50- and 100-MAs. The company also delivered Q4 2025 results that reflected higher commodity costs and targeted price increases that undermined sales in certain categories, resulting in a significant erosion in Kraft Heinz's ( KHC ) unadjusted profit and compressing its profit margin. Traders will be watching whether the shares can hold above the MAs into the close—levels that often act as a line in the sand for near-term trend traders. KHC lagged the wider consumer staples sector in intraday trading, with State Street's XLP ( XLP ) fund climbing 1.7% at press time. The relative underperformance widens over time, with KHC up around 3% year-to-date (vs. XLP +14%) and down 16% from a year earlier (vs. XLP +10%). Seeking Alpha's Quant rating system , the average SA analyst and the average Wall Street analyst all rate KHC a Hold. Other consumer staples ETFs: ( XLP ), ( VDC ), ( IYK ), ( FSTA ), ( KXI ), and ( RSPS ). KHC stock price (Seeking Alpha)
At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed the latest batch of the 21 most recent 13F filings for the 12/31/2024 reporting period, and noticed that Vanguard Index Funds Mid-Cap Value Index VIPER Shs (Symbol: VUG) was held by 11 of these funds. When hedge fund managers appear to be thinking alike, we find it is a good idea to take a closer look. Before we proceed, it is important to point out that 13F f...
At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed the latest batch of the 21 most recent 13F filings for the 12/31/2024 reporting period, and noticed that Vanguard Index Funds Mid-Cap Value Index VIPER Shs (Symbol: VUG) was held by 11 of these funds. When hedge fund managers appear to be thinking alike, we find it is a good idea to take a closer look. Before we proceed, it is important to point out that 13F filings do not tell the whole story, because these funds are only required to disclose their long positions with the SEC, but are not required to disclose their short positions. A fund making a bearish bet against a stock by shorting calls, for example, might also be long some amount of stock as they trade around their overall bearish position. This long component could show up in a 13F filing and everyone might assume the fund is bullish, but this tells only part of the story because the bearish/short side of the position is not seen. Having given that caveat, we believe that looking at groups of 13F filings can be revealing, especially when comparing one holding period to another. Below, let's take a look at the change in VUG positions, for this latest batch of 13F filers: In terms of shares owned, we count 5 of the above funds having increased existing VUG positions from 09/30/2024 to 12/31/2024, with 4 having decreased their positions and 1 new position. Worth noting is that St. Johns Investment Management Company LLC, included in this recent batch of 13F filers, exited VUG common stock as of 12/31/2024. Looking beyond these particular funds in this one batch of most recent filers, we tallied up the VUG share count in the aggregate among all of the funds which held VUG at the 12/31/2024 reporting period (out of the 1,042 we looked at in total). We then compared that number to the sum total of VUG shares those same funds held back at the 09/30/2024 period, to see how the aggregate share count held by hedge funds has moved for VUG. We found that between these two periods, ...
Pawel Kacperek/iStock via Getty Images Fund performance The abrdn Ultra Short Municipal Income Fund (Institutional class shares, net of fees)( ATOIX ) returned 0.74% for the fourth quarter, and outperformed the 0.56% return of its benchmark, the Bloomberg Municipal Bond 1 Year (1-2) Index. 1 Total Returns (as of 12/31/25) Class A w/o sales charges Institutional Class Bloomberg Barclays Municipal B...
Pawel Kacperek/iStock via Getty Images Fund performance The abrdn Ultra Short Municipal Income Fund (Institutional class shares, net of fees)( ATOIX ) returned 0.74% for the fourth quarter, and outperformed the 0.56% return of its benchmark, the Bloomberg Municipal Bond 1 Year (1-2) Index. 1 Total Returns (as of 12/31/25) Class A w/o sales charges Institutional Class Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond 1 Year (1-2) Index 10 Years (p.a.) 1.48 1.71 1.58 5 Years (p.a.) 2.14 2.34 1.73 3 Years (p.a.) 3.33 3.59 3.19 1 Year 2.79 3.05 3.47 Year to Date 2.79 3.05 3.47 3 Months 0.67 0.74 0.56 1 month 0.23 0.25 0.33 Click to enlarge PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. The performance data quoted represents past performance and current returns may be lower or higher. Class A shares have a 0.25% 12b-1 fee. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. To obtain performance information current to the most recent month-end, which may be higher or lower than the performance shown above, please call 866-667-9231 or go to aberdeeninvestments.com/us/literature . Returns prior May 7, 2018 reflect the performance of a predecessor fund. Please consult the Fund’s prospectus for more detail. Total returns assume the reinvestment of all distributions. Total returns may reflect a waiver of part of the Fund’s fees for certain periods since inception, without which returns would have been lower. Indexes are unmanaged and provided for comparison purposes only. No fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index. NOT FDIC INSURED * NO BANK GUARANTEE * MAY LOSE VALUE Expense ratios (%) Class A Class A1 Institutional Class Gross/Net Expense Ratio 0.92/0.70 0.84/0.70 0.66/0.45 Click to enlarge Expenses stated as of the Fund’s most recent prospectus. All classes of the Fund have contractual waivers in place and may not be terminated before February 28, 2026 wi...
Software stocks are experiencing a harsh sell-off as investors fear the artificial intelligence (AI) trade is reaching a fever pitch. Software stocks have gotten off to a rocky start to begin 2026. As of this writing, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are essentially breakeven on the year. While that performance may seem mundane, it's held up far better than the software industry. The iShares ...
Software stocks are experiencing a harsh sell-off as investors fear the artificial intelligence (AI) trade is reaching a fever pitch. Software stocks have gotten off to a rocky start to begin 2026. As of this writing, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are essentially breakeven on the year. While that performance may seem mundane, it's held up far better than the software industry. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF has plummeted by 20% so far this year. I'll dig into some of the key factors plaguing software stocks right now. Is this an opportunity to buy the dip, or is the artificial intelligence (AI) software trade a falling knife in the making? Read on to find out. AI infrastructure spending is accelerating Over the last three years, cloud hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MSFT 2.23%), Alphabet, and Amazon have collectively poured hundreds of billions of dollars into capital expenditures (capex). These funds have been used to procure GPUs and networking equipment to construct AI data centers. Considering big tech has been able to monetize AI-powered services relatively quickly, Wall Street initially gave big tech a hall pass regarding its infrastructure spending spree. However, industry research suggests that in 2026, the hyperscalers are going to continue accelerating their AI infrastructure budgets -- with forecasts signaling more than $500 billion in cumulative spend. At this point, some analysts are skeptical that this pace of spending is sustainable -- leading to questions about the true return on investment from rising infrastructure budgets. Expand NASDAQ : MSFT Microsoft Today's Change ( -2.23 %) $ -9.23 Current Price $ 404.04 Key Data Points Market Cap $3.1T Day's Range $ 401.01 - $ 416.31 52wk Range $ 344.79 - $ 555.45 Volume 1.5M Avg Vol 30M Gross Margin 68.59 % Dividend Yield 0.82 % Some valuations look unsustainable It is not uncommon for software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks to carry higher valuation multiples relative to other businesses in the...
Key Points Investors are punishing the cloud hyperscalers over rising infrastructure budgets. Some SaaS businesses are trading at valuations that appear unsustainable. AI models from Anthropic and OpenAI are disrupting traditional software ecosystems. 10 stocks we like better than Microsoft › Software stocks have gotten off to a rocky start to begin 2026. As of this writing, both the S&P 500 and N...
Key Points Investors are punishing the cloud hyperscalers over rising infrastructure budgets. Some SaaS businesses are trading at valuations that appear unsustainable. AI models from Anthropic and OpenAI are disrupting traditional software ecosystems. 10 stocks we like better than Microsoft › Software stocks have gotten off to a rocky start to begin 2026. As of this writing, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are essentially breakeven on the year. While that performance may seem mundane, it's held up far better than the software industry. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF has plummeted by 20% so far this year. I'll dig into some of the key factors plaguing software stocks right now. Is this an opportunity to buy the dip, or is the artificial intelligence (AI) software trade a falling knife in the making? Read on to find out. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks » AI infrastructure spending is accelerating Over the last three years, cloud hyperscalers such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet, and Amazon have collectively poured hundreds of billions of dollars into capital expenditures (capex). These funds have been used to procure GPUs and networking equipment to construct AI data centers. Considering big tech has been able to monetize AI-powered services relatively quickly, Wall Street initially gave big tech a hall pass regarding its infrastructure spending spree. However, industry research suggests that in 2026, the hyperscalers are going to continue accelerating their AI infrastructure budgets -- with forecasts signaling more than $500 billion in cumulative spend. At this point, some analysts are skeptical that this pace of spending is sustainable -- leading to questions about the true return on investment from rising infrastructure budgets. Some valuations look unsustainable It is not uncommon for software-as-a-service (Saa...
In this article MCD Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT A McDonald's cheeseburger, fries, and soda arranged in Celina, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025. Jake Dockins | Bloomberg | Getty Images McDonald's is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Here's what Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG are expecting the company to report: Earnings per s...
In this article MCD Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNT A McDonald's cheeseburger, fries, and soda arranged in Celina, Texas, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2025. Jake Dockins | Bloomberg | Getty Images McDonald's is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Here's what Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG are expecting the company to report: Earnings per share: $3.05 expected R evenue: $6.84 billion expected The fast-food giant, often viewed as a bellwether of consumer spending, has been warning for more than a year that low-income consumers are spending less. In response, McDonald's has embraced discounted offerings , from rolling out a value menu to relaunching Extra Value combo meals. One bright spot for McDonald's and the broader fast-food segment has been high-income diners, who are trading down from fast-casual restaurant options. Buzzy promotions have won over those consumers and boosted the chain's sales, too; the fourth quarter included the return of Monopoly, as well as the Grinch meal, timed for the holiday season. Analysts are projecting that McDonald's same-store sales will rise 3.9%, fueled by a 5.4% increase in the U.S., according to StreetAccount estimates. Despite the rebound in its sales, McDonald's shares have risen only about 4% over the last year, hurt by broader concerns about the consumer and the rise of GLP-1 drugs.
NoDerog/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images The J. M. Smucker Company ( SJM ) is a familiar name across households in the United States. The company’s 2025 annual report notes that around 90% of the households in the country use their products. SJM manufactures and markets food and beverage products like Folgers, Smuckers, Uncrustables, Milk-Bone, and Hostess. The Company's products are broadly cla...
NoDerog/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images The J. M. Smucker Company ( SJM ) is a familiar name across households in the United States. The company’s 2025 annual report notes that around 90% of the households in the country use their products. SJM manufactures and markets food and beverage products like Folgers, Smuckers, Uncrustables, Milk-Bone, and Hostess. The Company's products are broadly classified into four primary segments for financial reporting, namely, Coffee, Frozen Handhelds & Spreads, Pet and Sweet Baked Snacks. SJM Website SJM does operate internationally too (mainly Canada), albeit that market size is significantly smaller than its setup in the US. The foreign sales are included in the Sweet Baked Snacks and the Away From Home operating segments. SJM 10-K With over 25 consecutive years of dividend increases, SJM has achieved dividend aristocracy. With the current quarterly payout of $1.10, this consumer staples business yields around 4.1% (stock price $107.65). Seeking Alpha The broader market has left SJM, along with most consumer staples, in the dust over the last decade. The last five years have been especially soul-crushing for its investors. Data by YCharts Will the next five years belong to consumer staples? Today, we put forth our thesis for SJM. The Hate For Staples Staples have been at the receiving end of a few different trends. These have combined to produce some of the worst relative performance the sector has ever seen. Let's look at these one by one in the context of SJM. The most important headwind faced by companies has been at the sales level. Popular (or should we say, once popular) products are struggling with keeping sales volumes flat. SJM and others have tried to offset that through increased prices. The most recent quarter shows exactly how much they have used the pricing lever. Net sales increased $58.9 million, or 3 percent. Excluding $50.5 million of noncomparable net sales in the prior year related to divestitures and $1.6 ...
Solv Energy Inc. shares opened 20% above their IPO price, after the energy infrastructure services company raised $512.5 million in a US initial public offering. Shares of the San Diego-based firm opened at $30 each on Wednesday, versus an IPO price of $25 apiece. The listing priced at the top end of the marketed range. It was 10 times oversubscribed, people familiar with the matter said earlier. ...
Solv Energy Inc. shares opened 20% above their IPO price, after the energy infrastructure services company raised $512.5 million in a US initial public offering. Shares of the San Diego-based firm opened at $30 each on Wednesday, versus an IPO price of $25 apiece. The listing priced at the top end of the marketed range. It was 10 times oversubscribed, people familiar with the matter said earlier. The trading gives Solv a market value of about $6 billion based on the outstanding shares listed in its filings. The firm works in engineering, procurement, construction, operations and maintenance in the energy sector and specializes in solar and battery storage. Solv was previously a subsidiary of Swinerton Builders before it was acquired by private equity firm American Securities in 2021. American Securities expected to have 75% of the voting power in the company after the IPO, the filing shows. Solv’s IPO comes as demand for energy storage has been rising in the US, with technology companies seeking to power data centers for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The firm provides operations and maintenance services for 146 power plants in North America. Solv had net income of $114 million on revenue of $1.7 billion for the first nine months of 2025, compared with net income of about $139,000 on revenue of $1.4 billion a year prior, the filing shows. The firm had a backlog worth about $6.7 billion as of Sept. 30. The IPO was led by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Solv shares trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol MWH.
美元在纽约时段小幅走低，势将连续第四日下跌，推动多数发达国家货币走强。日元表现优于其他货币，上涨逾1%，至盘中新高。 截至美东时间下午12：36，彭博美元指数下跌0.2%；多数G-10货币走高，日元和澳元领涨。 日元上涨约1.1%，至盘中高点1美元兑152.75日元；年内高点为152.10，于1月27日创下。 Bank of Nassau 1982首席经济学家Win Thin表示，“我认为这多少有...
美元在纽约时段小幅走低，势将连续第四日下跌，推动多数发达国家货币走强。日元表现优于其他货币，上涨逾1%，至盘中新高。 截至美东时间下午12：36，彭博美元指数下跌0.2%；多数G-10货币走高，日元和澳元领涨。 日元上涨约1.1%，至盘中高点1美元兑152.75日元；年内高点为152.10，于1月27日创下。 Bank of Nassau 1982首席经济学家Win Thin表示，“我认为这多少有点轧空的意味，因为在自民党于选举中大获全胜之后，市场原本押注日元会进一步走弱”。 Thin补充道，目前基本面消息似乎寥寥。 责任编辑：李桐
A chef whose Michelin two-star restaurant in Wales was given a one-star hygiene rating has claimed the inspection regime is “prehistoric” as it emerged officers raised concerns about dead flies and the potential for cross-contamination. Gareth Ward said the inspectors did not understand what he and his colleagues were trying to do at Ynyshir, a restaurant with rooms near Machynlleth. He said: “The...
A chef whose Michelin two-star restaurant in Wales was given a one-star hygiene rating has claimed the inspection regime is “prehistoric” as it emerged officers raised concerns about dead flies and the potential for cross-contamination. Gareth Ward said the inspectors did not understand what he and his colleagues were trying to do at Ynyshir, a restaurant with rooms near Machynlleth. He said: “They’re prehistoric, these guys. They’ve actually admitted to me, to my face, they don’t understand my restaurant. They’ve judged me before they’ve understood. Instead of trying to understand it, they’ve just slapped a one [star] on it.” Speaking on Instagram, a clearly emotional Ward said: “I haven’t had a meltdown. I am going to fight. I am going to protect what’s mine. I’m not going to roll over and die.” The one-star hygiene rating made headlines last month and the inspection report emerged after a freedom of information request to Ceredigion county council. According to the report, there was an “accumulation of dead flies” on a flypaper sticky strip in a prep room and flies in another part of the premises. The report said: “Flies pose a significant food safety risk.” A knife used for shaving beef was described as “dirty” and concerns were flagged up about potential cross-contamination between ready-to-eat raw minced beef and other raw meat. “Reorganise your fridge storage arrangements to ensure that adequate separation between raw and ready to eat food is achieved,” the report said. It went on to say lobster meat was being served raw. “Significant risks associated with the service of raw lobsters specifically microbiological hazards have not been fully identified and/or controlled.” The report continued: “You should cease serving raw lobster immediately or further enforcement action in line with the council’s enforcement policy may be considered.” Inspectors also raised the issue of handwashing: “It is noted that … raw and ready-to-eat foods are being handled in numerous ...
In 2022, Apple announced it was adopting a "new Home architecture" for its smart home ecosystem to improve its performance and reliability and make it possible to support different kinds of accessories. Although it was mostly an invisible update when it worked properly, some users who attempted to switch to the new architecture when it first rolled out in iOS 16.2 ran into slow or unresponsive dev...
In 2022, Apple announced it was adopting a "new Home architecture" for its smart home ecosystem to improve its performance and reliability and make it possible to support different kinds of accessories. Although it was mostly an invisible update when it worked properly, some users who attempted to switch to the new architecture when it first rolled out in iOS 16.2 ran into slow or unresponsive devices and other problems, prompting Apple to pause the rollout and re-release it as part of iOS 16.4 . If you put off transitioning to the new architecture because of those early teething problems or for some other reason, Apple is forcing the issue starting today: You'll need to update to the new Home architecture if you want to continue using the Home app, and older iOS and macOS versions that don't support the new architecture will no longer be able to control your smart home devices. The old version of the Home app and the old Home/HomeKit architecture are no longer supported. If you're like me, you hit an "upgrade" button in your Home app years ago and then mostly forgot about it—if you open the Home app on a modern iPhone, iPad, or Mac and don't see an update prompt, it means you're already using the updated architecture and don't need to worry about it. Read full article Comments
When two Premier League games come along within a few days, fortunes change fast. This midweek has already proved too much for Thomas Frank, who lost to Newcastle and found himself getting sacked in the morning. A tight turnaround, combined with the relentless tempo of the Prem, means that everyone is liable to falter. With Chelsea and Man United both drawing last night against opponents well belo...
When two Premier League games come along within a few days, fortunes change fast. This midweek has already proved too much for Thomas Frank, who lost to Newcastle and found himself getting sacked in the morning. A tight turnaround, combined with the relentless tempo of the Prem, means that everyone is liable to falter. With Chelsea and Man United both drawing last night against opponents well below them in the table, the only teams to have won their last two games are Arsenal and Brentford, who meet tomorrow. Of the eight clubs playing tonight, only Man City and Crystal Palace won at the weekend. The meetings we’re seeing in this midweek all took place in another midweek, only a couple of months ago, on 2-4 December. And two of them were like something from Boxing Day 1963. Fulham went 5-1 down at home to Man City, then scored three and threatened to pull off one of the great shocks. Brighton went 2-0 up at home to Villa, only to lose 4-3. Was nobody thinking of the poor scribe manning the Clockwatch? This evening Scott Murray is covering Sunderland v Liverpool at 8.15pm GMT, while I bring you the goals from the 7.30 games. Here they are, with league positions in brackets. Aston Villa (3rd) v Brighton (15th) Brighton are in a slump, with only one league win since they opened the first window on their Advent calendars, but they do tend to have more bite when they’re the underdog. And Villa have lost their last two league games at home, to Everton and Brentford, both by 1-0. Crystal Palace (13th) v Burnley (19th) After a nightmare that lasted two months, Palace suddenly woke up on Sunday, when they won the A23 derby. They should be full of confidence against Burnley, who have only one away win all season (at Wolves, back in October). But if Burnley can draw at Anfield, they surely have it in them to get a point at Selhurst Park. Man City (2nd) v Fulham (12th) This is the match with the most riding on it. After their last-gasp heroics at Anfield, City simply have to ke...
With the latest jobs numbers out, a lot of attention is on the bond market, and rightly so. Thus, today's piece will focus on U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y) and what its future direction could mean for stocks. 10-year yield: Daily The 4.2% mark has been both literally and figuratively the 10-year yield's line in the sand for the past year. It was key support for much of 2025 before the yield pierce...
With the latest jobs numbers out, a lot of attention is on the bond market, and rightly so. Thus, today's piece will focus on U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y) and what its future direction could mean for stocks. 10-year yield: Daily The 4.2% mark has been both literally and figuratively the 10-year yield's line in the sand for the past year. It was key support for much of 2025 before the yield pierced it in this past September. We then saw a very clear inverse head-and-shoulders pattern take shape through December, which finally led to a breakout just last month. And just as inflation chatter was heating up again, the yield reversed lower and is now back below 4.2%. In other words, nothing has changed yet so far in 2026. 10-year yield: Now vs. 2020-22 Looking further back, if the three-plus-year symmetrical triangle that the 10-year yield has formed since early 2023 looks familiar, it should — because a very similar formation took shape from 2020 through early 2022. While rates were much lower back then (starting near zero post-Covid), equities handled the gradual rise in yields — until the monster breakout in 2022. That breakout occurred as the Federal Reserve played historic catch-up to combat inflation they had initially labeled "transitory." While we're still expecting more rate cuts than hikes at this point, that could change quickly. The 10-year yield will tell us what the market is thinking — and it will react to commodities, which began rallying in 2020 and continued through mid-2022. The key difference between the two patterns is momentum, shown by the 14-month relative strength index. In 2020–2021, RSI surged after rates bottomed, making higher lows and higher highs and confirming the breakout. That strength helped drive the 10-year yield above 1.70% in early 2022, leading to a powerful nine-month advance. This time is different. RSI has been making lower highs since late 2023, and the 10-year's rallies have been muted, barely holding its uptrend line. A brea...