Dougal Waters Jeff deGraaf, chairman and head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research, characterizes the recent stock market gains as an “oversold rally” with limited upside remaining, warning that the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) faces formidable resistance at its 200-day moving average around 6,640. The rally, sparked by optimism surrounding potential progress in the ongoing geopolitical confli...
Dougal Waters Jeff deGraaf, chairman and head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research, characterizes the recent stock market gains as an “oversold rally” with limited upside remaining, warning that the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) faces formidable resistance at its 200-day moving average around 6,640. The rally, sparked by optimism surrounding potential progress in the ongoing geopolitical conflict, has approximately 1.5% of room to run, according to deGraaf. “This is an oversold rally that was sparked by some news and some optimism, but there’s more to do,” he said in an interview with CNBC. Market breadth has fallen short of what deGraaf considers sustainable levels, with the percentage of advancing stocks recently ranging between 72% and 83%—well below the 90% threshold he prefers to see. The technical analyst noted that oscillators and other metrics were on the “cusp of being oversold,” which allowed for the initial mean reversion in prices. Without a significant improvement in breadth, however, the 200-day moving average will prove difficult to overcome. Iran headlines and oil prices ( CO1:COM ), ( CL1:COM ) remain in the “driver’s seat” for market direction, impacting risk premiums and real interest rates, deGraaf explained. While near-term inflation has risen due to elevated oil prices, longer-term inflation expectations have plummeted significantly, signaling tightening financial conditions. This improvement in the long-term inflation outlook, however, is coming “at the expense of growth,” creating a concerning dynamic for investors. The Federal Reserve faces a challenging balancing act as it navigates these crosscurrents, particularly with a new chair coming in. “I think it’s going to be a really challenging three to six months just to see how the Fed handles this,” deGraaf said. Recent PPI and ISM data showed prices jumping without corresponding growth, complicating any potential rate cut decision. DeGraaf drew parallels to the 1970s, describing a potenti...
Seasoned investors know that when the S & P 500 (SPX) experiences big declines, it coincides with spikes in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) . Over the long term, neither consistently leads the other — that relationship is well understood. What's far less clear is how much the VIX actually needs to rise before volatility begins to peter out. More importantly, how do we really know that the market's...
Seasoned investors know that when the S & P 500 (SPX) experiences big declines, it coincides with spikes in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) . Over the long term, neither consistently leads the other — that relationship is well understood. What's far less clear is how much the VIX actually needs to rise before volatility begins to peter out. More importantly, how do we really know that the market's character has flipped back to positive from a decidedly negative and bearish trading environment? We're breaking this down, along with another metric we use at CappThesis that, in our opinion, does a much better job of capturing true two-way volatility, rather than focusing solely on the VIX, which spikes only to downside pressure. First, here's a long-term chart that looks at the largest trough-to-peak VIX moves since 2007. There have been 12 instances where the VIX gained at least 100% from its intraday low to high. The current move — up approximately 165% from the late December low to the recent high — now joins that group. VIX – biggest trough-to-peak % moves since 2007: At least +100%: 12 At least +200%: 9 At least +300%: 6 At least +400%: 4 At least +500%: 2 At least +600% 1 The two largest spikes, not surprisingly, occurred during 2007–2008 (+820%) and the Covid crash (+660%). There are two very important takeaways: The current VIX move could still extend further from here. A bear market does not require an extreme 500% to 600% surge. In 2022, the VIX rose roughly 180% all in, which only is modestly more than the current move. Yet, the SPX continued to sell off for over 10 months before the low was etched. In other words, we never saw true capitulation like we last saw in 2020. This is why volatility should always be viewed alongside the frequency of absolute 1% SPX moves. Sticking with 2022, even though the VIX never reached 40, the S & P 500's daily moves were constantly elevated. As this table shows, there were at least nine absolute 1% moves every month in 2022,...
While the Bank of Canada ’s governing council spent considerable time discussing the inflation risks posed by the war in Iran, officials agreed that they “should not lose sight” of other major economic headwinds when they held interest rates steady last month. Higher oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East “clearly added a new layer of uncertainty” in Canada as gasoline prices spiked,...
While the Bank of Canada ’s governing council spent considerable time discussing the inflation risks posed by the war in Iran, officials agreed that they “should not lose sight” of other major economic headwinds when they held interest rates steady last month. Higher oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East “clearly added a new layer of uncertainty” in Canada as gasoline prices spiked, the central bank said in a summary of deliberations of its March meeting. At the same time, officials said they need to stay focused on other economic risks, including the upcoming review of the trade agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico, shifting US tariff policy, and “ongoing structural changes.” Ultimately, they decided to hold the policy interest rate at 2.25% in March. Their discussions reiterated that members believed “it was too early” to assess the impact of the energy price shock, but that there was “potential for weaker near-term growth and upside risks to inflation.” The deliberations didn’t include the near-term path for interest rates, and officials said they could “take some time” to see how the conflict in Iran would play out with headline inflation close to the bank’s 2% target and core pressures “limited.” Still, they also said they would “would need to rely on judgment more heavily than usual and take a risk management approach to monetary policy” and repeated they’re “ready to respond as needed.” The communications suggest the central bank is comfortable holding borrowing costs steady as they get a better read on the Middle East conflict. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump signaled he’d like to exit the conflict sooner than later, triggering a rally in stocks and causing oil prices to fall. The deliberations also pointed to a recent speech by outgoing Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki , which suggested that policymakers have more leeway when an external shock adds inflation risks but the economy is in excess supply. The central bank also reiterate...
PALM BEACH, Fla., April 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GAMCO Investors, Inc. (“Gabelli”) (OTCQX: GAMI) announced today that assets under management (“AUM”) were $35.3 billion at March 31, 2026 as compared to $31.2 billion at March 31, 2025.
PALM BEACH, Fla., April 01, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GAMCO Investors, Inc. (“Gabelli”) (OTCQX: GAMI) announced today that assets under management (“AUM”) were $35.3 billion at March 31, 2026 as compared to $31.2 billion at March 31, 2025.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is offering some of its top executives some big incentives to push the value of the company to new heights. Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission show that the company granted new stock options to six executives, all with an expiration date within five years. The highest strike price for those options is $3,727.12 per share, which would give Meta a value...
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is offering some of its top executives some big incentives to push the value of the company to new heights. Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission show that the company granted new stock options to six executives, all with an expiration date within five years. The highest strike price for those options is $3,727.12 per share, which would give Meta a value of about $9.4 trillion based on its current shares outstanding. The compensation packages are designed to align management with shareholders, and notably don't include founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who already owns roughly 13% of the shares outstanding. If Meta's going to reach $9 trillion, it will have to execute on the numerous opportunities presented by generative artificial intelligence (AI) in its business. And it'll probably need some help from market participants as well. Let's see how that might happen. Continue reading
NASA Starts Pumping Fuel Into Artemis II Moon Rocket Ahead Of Launch NASA's Artemis II mission is finally set to launch three Americans and one Canadian atop the Space Launch System rocket on a lunar mission not seen in more than 50 years. The Artemis II mission is scheduled for launch at 6:24 p.m. EST on Wednesday from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The fueling process for the Artemis II rocket...
NASA Starts Pumping Fuel Into Artemis II Moon Rocket Ahead Of Launch NASA's Artemis II mission is finally set to launch three Americans and one Canadian atop the Space Launch System rocket on a lunar mission not seen in more than 50 years. The Artemis II mission is scheduled for launch at 6:24 p.m. EST on Wednesday from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The fueling process for the Artemis II rocket has picked up speed. The rocket is now more quickly filling with liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. When the core stage is completely full, it will contain 196,000 gallons of liquid oxygen and 537,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen. pic.twitter.com/wejiCveeNb — NASA Artemis (@NASAArtemis) April 1, 2026 The crew of four, including NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman (commander), Victor Glover (pilot), and Christina Koch (mission specialist), along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen (mission specialist), will circumnavigate the moon in a 10-day flight aboard the new Orion spacecraft. Artemis II is a critical test of the Orion capsule and marks another step toward future lunar landings, which SpaceX is likely to support as early as 2028 . Three hours and 30 minutes after liftoff, if everything goes to plan, the Orion spacecraft and its service module will separate from the second stage of the rocket, perform a manual flight test high in Earth orbit, and prepare for a translunar injection, in other words, a trip to the moon, during which Orion's service module will fire its engines and catapult the four astronauts to 25,000 mph on a three-day journey into lunar orbit. Artemis II will enter the moon's gravitational field about four days into the mission and then begin its U-turn, enabling a flyby around the far side more than 12 hours later. If today's launch goes according to plan, that flyby of the moon will take place next Monday. "No one has ever seen this full crater on the far side of the moon, and so this would be really neat," Hansen said. "I'm excited to have a lo...
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., April 01, 2026--Cognichip, the company pioneering ACI® – Artificial Chip Intelligence – for semiconductor design, today announced an oversubscribed $60 million Series A financing led by Seligman Ventures, with participation from SBI Investment and additional semiconductor-focused investors. All seed investors, including Mayfield, Lux Capital, FPV, and Candou Ventures, partici...
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., April 01, 2026--Cognichip, the company pioneering ACI® – Artificial Chip Intelligence – for semiconductor design, today announced an oversubscribed $60 million Series A financing led by Seligman Ventures, with participation from SBI Investment and additional semiconductor-focused investors. All seed investors, including Mayfield, Lux Capital, FPV, and Candou Ventures, participated above pro rata allocations, bringing the company’s total funding to $93 million. As part of th
Andreas Rentz/Getty Images News Facing demands from the Trump administration to lower U.S. drug prices, Bayer ( BAYRY ) is in discussions with European and other wealthier nations, such as Japan, to seek higher prices for its new medicines. Leading drugmakers are facing pricing pressures in the U.S. after President Donald Trump issued an executive order last year to implement his Most Favored Nati...
Andreas Rentz/Getty Images News Facing demands from the Trump administration to lower U.S. drug prices, Bayer ( BAYRY ) is in discussions with European and other wealthier nations, such as Japan, to seek higher prices for its new medicines. Leading drugmakers are facing pricing pressures in the U.S. after President Donald Trump issued an executive order last year to implement his Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing policy, which seeks to lower U.S. prices of brand-name drugs to the levels in other developed countries. In an interview, Stefan Oelrich, the head of the German conglomerate’s pharma division, said, “In Europe, we need to raise the price level for new product launches." “Otherwise, as an industry—and this naturally applies to us as well—we'll be faced with additional discounts in the US that wouldn’t allow us to recoup our total expenses,” Oelrich added. Bayer ( BAYZF ), which is readying a new drug pricing system, was not among the 16 leading drugmakers that signed MFN deals with the White House over the past few months. According to a new report from market research firm GlobalData last week, the number of pharmaceutical launches in Europe has dropped 35% in the first 10 months since the introduction of International Reference Pricing under the MFN policy last year. “US prices will be linked to prices in countries like Germany and others,” Oelrich noted, adding, "That's at least our current understanding, and we are preparing for that.” More on Bayer Bayer: Turnaround Is Underway - Don't Miss It Bayer Aktiengesellschaft 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYRY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Ubben’s Inclusive Capital is said to have sold Bayer stake Judge grants preliminary approval to Bayer’s $7.25B Roundup settlement plan
Thanasis Zovoilis/DigitalVision via Getty Images The TappAlpha Innovation 100 Growth & Daily Income ETF ( TDAQ ) could be a good addition to an income portfolio provided investors are willing to ride the underlying volatility of the Nasdaq, on which covered calls are deployed. I fully expect TDAQ to be a volatile total return instrument that tracks the underlying QQQ holdings closely, while adding...
Thanasis Zovoilis/DigitalVision via Getty Images The TappAlpha Innovation 100 Growth & Daily Income ETF ( TDAQ ) could be a good addition to an income portfolio provided investors are willing to ride the underlying volatility of the Nasdaq, on which covered calls are deployed. I fully expect TDAQ to be a volatile total return instrument that tracks the underlying QQQ holdings closely, while adding option premium alpha in the current regime of choppy, volatile but potentially a flat market (on an end to end basis) over the next few quarters. Even if the regime guess goes wrong, TDAQ's use case remains well supported. Methodology According to the TDAQ prospectus , the strategy prioritizes income while keeping total returns potential open. It sells 0DTE calls on the underlying, typically at 0-5% strikes. The option exposure is aggressive and overwrites the entire portfolio in notional value terms. The underlying portfolio remains open to overnight drifts. The 0DTE option writing strategy has its advantages in terms of maximizing theta decay. Premiums often stay elevated even under favorable underlying moves for options even with a day to expiry if the environment is volatile, such as now. This means 0DTE does give the strategy the maximum theta decay edge across regimes. Also, positioning made at the start of the day is closer to current strike levels - this means the strikes are continuously adjusted according to the levels unlike monthly call writing which could reap a significant part of the option premium at the start of the month and sit idle for most of the remaining days. The strategy has its own pitfalls too. Strike selection becomes extremely important as an aggressive strike selection close to ATM levels can mean upside opportunity losses on strong bull rallies intraday. Intraday option move on expiry days are also subject to increase volatility trajectories. The execution precision required here is needed consistently over several days. TDAQ's 0-5% strike se...
Interactive Brokers Group ( IBKR ) on Wednesday said its March daily average revenue trades rose 25% year-over-year to 4.329M, but fell 1% from the prior month. Ending client equity was up 38% from the prior year and down 4% month-over-month to $789.4B. Ending client margin loan balances of $86.0B were up 35% from last year and down 4% from February. Ending client credit balances reached $168.8B a...
Interactive Brokers Group ( IBKR ) on Wednesday said its March daily average revenue trades rose 25% year-over-year to 4.329M, but fell 1% from the prior month. Ending client equity was up 38% from the prior year and down 4% month-over-month to $789.4B. Ending client margin loan balances of $86.0B were up 35% from last year and down 4% from February. Ending client credit balances reached $168.8B at the end of March, 35% higher than the prior year and 4% higher than the previous month. Client accounts stood at 4.754M, up 31% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month. More on Interactive Brokers Group Interactive Brokers: The Growth Continues, But Valuation Leaves Little Room Interactive Brokers: The Quiet Compounder Riding The Global Trading Boom Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) Presents at Bank of America Financial Services Conference 2026 Transcript Interactive Brokers enables crypto portfolio transfers from external wallets
David McNew/Getty Images News Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) plunges 5.7% in Wednesday's trading, on track for its largest percent decline since April 10, 2025, when the shares sank 5.5%, as the energy sector is the day's worst performer by a wide margin after oil prices tumbled in response to rising hopes for a near-term conclusion to the Middle East war. Oil and gas stocks comprise 11 of the 15 largest los...
David McNew/Getty Images News Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) plunges 5.7% in Wednesday's trading, on track for its largest percent decline since April 10, 2025, when the shares sank 5.5%, as the energy sector is the day's worst performer by a wide margin after oil prices tumbled in response to rising hopes for a near-term conclusion to the Middle East war. Oil and gas stocks comprise 11 of the 15 largest losers on the S&P 500: Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) down 5.7%, Texas Pacific Land ( TPL ) down 5.7%, Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ) down 5.4%, Chevron ( CVX ) down 5.3%, Diamondback Energy ( FANG ) down 4.8%, Phillips 66 ( PSX ) down 4.5%, ONEOK ( OKE ) down 4.5%, APA Corp. ( APA ) down 4.4%, Marathon Petroleum ( MPC ) down 4.3%, Devon Energy ( DVN ) down 4.3%, Valero Energy ( VLO ) down 4.2%. The sector is hit by profit-taking after surging 37% in Q1, easing its YTD gain to 32% with today's selling, as President Trump signaled a wind-down of the war; f ront-month Nymex crude ( CL1:COM ) for May delivery down 2% to $99.37/bbl, and front-month Brent crude ( CO1:COM ) for June delivery down 2.8% to $101.00/bbl. ETFs: ( XLE ), ( XOP ), ( VDE ), ( IXC ), ( OIH ) More on Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil: Boosted By Powerful Pricing And Volume Tailwinds Exxon Mobil: Iran War Creates Earnings Upside Exxon Mobil: Avoid Being The Latecomer To The Energy Party (Downgrade)
The toy company Hasbro Inc. said it discovered unauthorized access in its network on Saturday and has taken certain systems offline. As the investigation continues, the company has implemented business continuity plans that will allow it to continue taking orders, shipping products and other “key operations,” according to a Wednesday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission . Those in...
The toy company Hasbro Inc. said it discovered unauthorized access in its network on Saturday and has taken certain systems offline. As the investigation continues, the company has implemented business continuity plans that will allow it to continue taking orders, shipping products and other “key operations,” according to a Wednesday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission . Those interim measures may last several weeks and could result in delays, the company said. “We have taken swift action to protect our systems and data, including proactively taking select systems offline while we remediate the situation,” a company spokesperson said in a statement. “While this is an unfortunate incident, Hasbro’s business operations remain open.” Hasbro is also working to identify files that were potentially impacted and “will take additional actions as appropriate based on its review and findings,” according to the filing. The company’s shares were down about 4% in midday trading.