Jeremy Poland/E+ via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Shell ( SHEL ), I highlighted their strong cash flow, disciplined capital allocation, and the potential to see the “European Discount” narrow as capital migration could advance in their favor. With the stock up about 7% since then despite an expectably weak quarter (as a result of falling prices), continued buybacks, and a divi...
Jeremy Poland/E+ via Getty Images Introduction The last time I covered Shell ( SHEL ), I highlighted their strong cash flow, disciplined capital allocation, and the potential to see the “European Discount” narrow as capital migration could advance in their favor. With the stock up about 7% since then despite an expectably weak quarter (as a result of falling prices), continued buybacks, and a dividend increase that supports a double-digit annualized total yield, I reiterate Shell’s Buy rating, as the valuation continues to be attractive given potential macro developments. Internal Developments Shell IR Shell reported an overall weak Q4, missing the market’s top- and bottom-line estimates , with the free cash flow dropping significantly to $21.95 billion compared to $33.60 billion in 2024, mostly as a result of negative working capital changes that come alongside lower prices. Subtracting their interest expenses, we’re looking at a free cash flow to equity of $19.23 billion in 2025 and $31.19 billion in 2024 (note that they report an adjusted form of the FCF, which reached $26.1 billion in 2025). Shell IR The company continued to advance on their long-term targets for structural cost savings and growth, continuing to target an increase in normalized FCF per share of 10% per year from 2024 to 2030, expecting between $20 billion and $22 billion in cash CAPEX, similar to the ~$21 billion spent in 2025. Shell IR Financially, based on SHEL’s latest report , we can see an overall normal position, with the current assets slightly below their current liabilities and a high but manageable amount of debt, with plenty of assets that cover it very well. Shell IR Unlike BP ( BP ), which halted their buybacks to focus on their balance sheet following their recent Q4 report, Shell took a different approach, refreshing their quarterly $3.5 billion buyback program for 2026 alongside a 4% increase in their quarterly dividend, with 2025's total shareholder returns representing about 52...
Pakistan International Airlines’ new owners plan to list the carrier within a year of taking over operations. The plan is to list 5%-10% of the carrier, said Aqeel Karim Dhedhi , chairman at AKD Group, one of the members of the consortium that purchased a 75% stake in the national flag carrier for 135 billion rupees ($482 million) from the government. PIA has survived on government bailouts for ye...
Pakistan International Airlines’ new owners plan to list the carrier within a year of taking over operations. The plan is to list 5%-10% of the carrier, said Aqeel Karim Dhedhi , chairman at AKD Group, one of the members of the consortium that purchased a 75% stake in the national flag carrier for 135 billion rupees ($482 million) from the government. PIA has survived on government bailouts for years after struggling with massive losses and high debt caused by operational inefficiencies, an aging fleet and political intervention. Dhedhi, who has a 16% stake in the consortium, said that PIA aims to reclaim its market share by offering direct flights. “There are no direct flights from Pakistan and currently passengers are taking transit flights from airlines based in Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Turkey,” he said. “We will take our business back from these airlines. Passengers who can have a direct flight would never want to take a transit flight.” The government is now focused on finding a partner to redevelop Roosevelt Hotel in New York and selling power distribution companies as part of a key condition set by the International Monetary Fund for receiving funds.
glegorly Initial jobless claims decreased 5K to 227K in the week ended Feb. 7 vs. 222K consensus and 232K prior (revised from 231K), according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The four-week moving average was 219,500, an increase of 7,000 from the prior week's average of 212,500. Continuing claims for the week ended Jan. 31 grew to 1.862M from 1.841M in the prior week....
glegorly Initial jobless claims decreased 5K to 227K in the week ended Feb. 7 vs. 222K consensus and 232K prior (revised from 231K), according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday. The four-week moving average was 219,500, an increase of 7,000 from the prior week's average of 212,500. Continuing claims for the week ended Jan. 31 grew to 1.862M from 1.841M in the prior week. (revised from 1.844M). The newest data exceeded the 1.850M consensus. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% for the week ended Jan. 31, unchanged from the earlier week's unrevised rate, the Department of Labor said Thursday. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs on an unadjusted basis was 248,397 in the week ended Feb. 7, a decrease of 4,555 from the prior week. Seasonal factors expected an increase of 1,161 from the previous week. Initial jobless claims stay within 200K-250K band (U.S. Department of Labor) More on Jobs & Employment Private Sector Ramps Up Hiring. Job Losses Mount At Federal And State Governments Nonfarm payrolls growth shocks to the upside in January; unemployment slips to 4.3% Job openings continue to dwindle in December: JOLTS report
panumas nikomkai/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis In a recent Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO ) article, I wrote on how money in AI infrastructure often follows the constraints. First it was GPUs, then custom silicon, and as of late it has been the memory wall. For Coherent (NYSE: COHR ), the constraint emerging is even smaller: the tiny laser chips that make it physically possible for GPUs to tal...
panumas nikomkai/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis In a recent Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO ) article, I wrote on how money in AI infrastructure often follows the constraints. First it was GPUs, then custom silicon, and as of late it has been the memory wall. For Coherent (NYSE: COHR ), the constraint emerging is even smaller: the tiny laser chips that make it physically possible for GPUs to talk to each other have grown to be a necessity for the future of AI data centers. I think that Coherent is one of the cleaner ways to play that constraint right now. The problem lies in the stock being priced for perfect execution after a near 96.9% move in the last six months, so throughout this article, I want to focus on what is being underpriced and what could go wrong for Coherent. What Coherent Actually Does In large GPU clusters, the bottleneck shifts from compute to bandwidth, so optics becomes a limiting factor. The components that handle this communication in optics from electrical signals to light and back again are optical transceivers. Coherent builds these transceivers, but the moat that can set them apart from competitors like Lumentum (NASDAQ: LITE ) is how deeply vertically integrated the business actually is. Coherent has not just been assembling parts but also growing its own indium phosphide wafers, which are the raw semiconductor material used to make lasers, fabricating its own laser chips in-house, and assembling the modules. Very few players in this space control that kind of stack, and it gives Coherent a strong level of cost control and flexibility. When demand spikes like it is right now, Coherent doesn't have to compete with other module makers for the limited laser chip supply. If you own the lasers, you can maintain revenue as you are not paying someone else's gross margin. The Numbers: A Record Quarter With Accelerating Momentum Q2 was clean, with growth mix and profitability making meaningful moves. Coherent generated $1.69 billion in revenue u...
Moussa81/iStock via Getty Images i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) +4.8% pre-market Thursday after saying it secured a financing package of as much as $500M , comprised of a royalty sale to Franco-Nevada ( FNV ) for $250M and a gold pre-payment facility for up to $250M, to support its recapitalization plan and strategy of creating a Nevada-focused mid-tier gold producer. i-80 Gold's ( IAUX ) final steps to compl...
Moussa81/iStock via Getty Images i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) +4.8% pre-market Thursday after saying it secured a financing package of as much as $500M , comprised of a royalty sale to Franco-Nevada ( FNV ) for $250M and a gold pre-payment facility for up to $250M, to support its recapitalization plan and strategy of creating a Nevada-focused mid-tier gold producer. i-80 Gold's ( IAUX ) final steps to complete the recapitalization plan targeting an overall amount of $900M-$1B include a plan to retire and replace existing convertible debentures with new convertible debentures on terms more favorable to the company and the potential sale of a non-core asset. The company entered into a commitment letter with Franco-Nevada ( FNV ) for $250M in financing in exchange for a 1.5% life-of-mine net smelter return royalty, stepping up to a 3.0% life-of-mine net smelter return royalty in 2031, and will apply to all of i-80 Gold's ( IAUX ) material properties, including six projects in various stages of development. i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) said it secured commitments for a gold prepay facility with National Bank and Macquarie for an initial advance of $150M at closing, with a $100M accordion feature, which it expects to execute in H1 2027. "With Franco-Nevada providing the foundational capital as part of our recapitalization, we now have a clear and achievable path to over 600K oz of gold production annually by the early 2030s," i-80 Gold ( IAUX ) President and CEO Richard Young said. More on i-80 Gold and Franco-Nevada i-80 Gold: A Nevada Turnaround Story Trading At Just 0.28x NAV Franco-Nevada: I See An Affordable Alternative Franco-Nevada: A High-Quality Compounder Worth Paying Up For (Rating Upgrade)
Pawel Kacperek/iStock via Getty Images Austin Hawley, CFA Portfolio Manager Brian Fontanella, CFA Portfolio Specialist Market and portfolio review Equity markets continued to move higher in Q4, with the Russell 1000 Value Index increasing 3.8%. The information technology (+11%) and communication services (+9%) sectors were again among the best performers in Q4, driven by continued optimism around ...
Pawel Kacperek/iStock via Getty Images Austin Hawley, CFA Portfolio Manager Brian Fontanella, CFA Portfolio Specialist Market and portfolio review Equity markets continued to move higher in Q4, with the Russell 1000 Value Index increasing 3.8%. The information technology (+11%) and communication services (+9%) sectors were again among the best performers in Q4, driven by continued optimism around artificial intelligence (AI). Health care (+8%) also posted a strong return, while utilities (-1%), real estate (-3%) and consumer discretionary (-0.2%) were the only sectors that declined. When examining what contributed to the index’s return in Q4, it is interesting to note that a large portion of the return came from what many consider growth areas of the market. The most notable example may be Alphabet ( GOOGL ), which was added to the index in June 2025 at a large weight. Its 29% return in Q4 made it by far the largest contributor to the index’s performance for the quarter, and it is now the largest weight in the index by a wide margin. Many information technology stocks also outperformed in Q4, supported by the hundreds of billions of dollars of AI-related capital spending, with several stocks — such as Micron ( MU ) and Sandisk ( SNDK ) — increasing 50% to 100% or more. The portfolio’s lack of exposure to these AI-related companies was responsible for around 70% of the Q4 underperformance, and this same dynamic was also a very large driver of the portfolio’s full-year underperformance. Over the past several quarters, we have been finding more value among more fundamentally stable, higher-quality, cash-generative businesses including Colgate ( CL ), Aon ( AON ) and Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A )( BRK.B ). However, these types of companies and defensive areas of the market materially underperformed throughout 2025, creating an additional headwind to relative performance. Fundamentals for these high-quality businesses continue to perform in line with our expectations, and...
Terms like buy range, extended and shakeout may sound foreign to new investors. But they can help you know when to buy stocks correctly and maximize gains.
Terms like buy range, extended and shakeout may sound foreign to new investors. But they can help you know when to buy stocks correctly and maximize gains.
Oat_Phawat/iStock via Getty Images Introduction As mentioned in my initial analysis of Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. ( BVN ), it had been on my radar for over 20 years, and I finally bought into the shares last August 2025 after meeting with the company and confirming a structural change in management/ownership with a focus on growth and capital discipline. BVN had suffered from decades lo...
Oat_Phawat/iStock via Getty Images Introduction As mentioned in my initial analysis of Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. ( BVN ), it had been on my radar for over 20 years, and I finally bought into the shares last August 2025 after meeting with the company and confirming a structural change in management/ownership with a focus on growth and capital discipline. BVN had suffered from decades long sub-par engineering, business management that culminated in a massive back tax bill and closed mine that nearly broke the company. New management has entered and greatly streamlined operations, paid down debt, and brought the company back to benefit from the current metal price increases. Today, I update estimates that point to even better results given the metal price levels. I raise the YE26 price target to $52 from $27. BVN 4Q25 Earnings Preview BVN has scant analyst coverage; therefore, all estimates are my own. I did not have an opportunity to discuss 4Q25 production or guidance with the company and assumed the average volume seen so far this year, along with costs. What has changed is input prices, which, for all of its main metals, have risen sharply since mid-2025 and more so than in 4Q24. It should not come as a surprise to many that BVN reports a nearly 200% increase in EBITDA and a 5x increase in net income. What will be more important in the 4Q25 report is the company's progress on its mine expansion. Created by the author with data from Bloomberg & BVN Operating Model The company provides per mine data that allows for operating granularity, but I opted to model on a per metal basis: gold, silver, and copper. In the recent investor day presentation , the company provided detailed volume production and ore grade guidance for most of its mines. The San Gabriel mine, which has a 4 oz/ton grade, started production in 4Q24 and should drive down cash costs as well as increase volumes by 40% in 2026. Silver production is expected to increase by 26% through 2028, whi...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Over the past several years, mortgage REITs have been in a period of consolidation, recovery, and redirection. In the glory days after the pandemic, when real estate was hot and the market was moving at light speed, mortgage REITs were growing quickly and fundamentals were strong. For investors looking for a high yield investment, mREITs quickly became a fo...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Over the past several years, mortgage REITs have been in a period of consolidation, recovery, and redirection. In the glory days after the pandemic, when real estate was hot and the market was moving at light speed, mortgage REITs were growing quickly and fundamentals were strong. For investors looking for a high yield investment, mREITs quickly became a focal point offering higher dividend yields than equity REITs. However, some investors fell for the cyclicality of real estate once again, diving into the deep end of the pool when things looked bright. The past two years have looked like a rug pull for mREIT investors. Some of the largest REITs in the mortgage sector like Blackstone Mortgage Trust ( BXMT ), Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ( ARI ), and Ares Commercial Real Estate ( ACRE ), the focus of today's discussion. In past discussion , I have offered my opinion on why these REITs and their portfolios of loans became victims of the cyclical real estate development game. Unfortunately for the investors, the traditional laws of supply and demand still apply like gravity. With an extraordinary amount of supply coming online in a very short period of time, rents have begun to fall across these key markets. As rents begin to fall, performance declines at the asset level and the loans can begin to fall into peril. This dynamic is a key piece of the dramatic increase in delinquencies over the past 12 months. Shifting to the outlook ahead, the boost in deliveries has led to an apprehensive attitude towards new development which has caused the market to come to a standstill. The purpose of today's discussion is to revisit ACRE and review the mortgage REIT's full year 2025 earnings. I will offer my perspective on other happenings across the market and the implications to ACRE. Review of Prior Coverage Last year, I covered ACRE on two occasions. First, I published an article in January titled The Worst Could Be Ahead . Consi...
(RTTNews) - While reporting financial results for the fourth quarter on Thursday, casual footwear maker Crocs, Inc. (CROX) provided its adjusted earnings and revenue growth guidance for the first quarter and for the full-year 2026.
(RTTNews) - While reporting financial results for the fourth quarter on Thursday, casual footwear maker Crocs, Inc. (CROX) provided its adjusted earnings and revenue growth guidance for the first quarter and for the full-year 2026.
Peter Fleming/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I am upgrading the rating on Barclays PLC ( BCS ) stock to a Strong Buy based on a deterministic advantage within the bank's balance sheet that Wall Street has structurally undervalued (in my opinion). My current thesis depends on the repricing of the £236 billion product structural hedge as maturing assets yielding between 1.5%-2.7% will roll over i...
Peter Fleming/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I am upgrading the rating on Barclays PLC ( BCS ) stock to a Strong Buy based on a deterministic advantage within the bank's balance sheet that Wall Street has structurally undervalued (in my opinion). My current thesis depends on the repricing of the £236 billion product structural hedge as maturing assets yielding between 1.5%-2.7% will roll over into a reinvestment rate of ~3.5%. This rollover is guaranteeing net interest income expansion irrespective of lending volumes. So, this income bridge, along with the strategic capital rotation [involving the exit of the capital-intensive American Airlines ( AAL ) partnership] and the acquisition of the capital-light Best Egg platform, builds a path to a Return on Tangible Equity [RoTE] over 14% by FY2028. The major risk to my thesis is the capital cliff in the delayed £16 billion risk-weighted asset inflation from the US Consumer Bank's migration to Internal Ratings-Based models. Mainly if this coincides with US credit deterioration beyond the 550 basis point loan loss rate guidance, that will be a negative for BCS stock. My previous coverage from August 2025 focused on the execution of the FY2024–FY2026 plan that led to the buy rating to the £10 billion capital return target and the initial path to a 12% RoTE. What's new here? This current analysis advances the thesis by integrating the newly unveiled 2028 roadmap, mainly the escalated >£15 billion payout target. Different from the prior general efficiency narrative, this article dissects the deterministic advantage of the structural hedge, impact of rolling yields, and the capital rotation mechanics (the American Airlines exit and Best Egg acquisition), and identifies the new 2027 regulatory capital cliff risk. FYI, BCS stock also attained the technical target (pointed out in the last article) of $23.64 in December and outperformed S&P 500/SPY with a big difference since my last BCS coverage. Analyst's compilation (From P...
Artistgndphotography | E+ | Getty Images With many expecting a bigger tax refund this season, there may be an incentive to file returns sooner. But that doesn't mean you should rush to send yours. First, you'll need all the necessary tax forms , or you could risk processing delays — or worse, experts say. Every year, employers and financial institutions report your income and other transactions vi...
Artistgndphotography | E+ | Getty Images With many expecting a bigger tax refund this season, there may be an incentive to file returns sooner. But that doesn't mean you should rush to send yours. First, you'll need all the necessary tax forms , or you could risk processing delays — or worse, experts say. Every year, employers and financial institutions report your income and other transactions via so-called information returns , such as W-2s and 1099s. A copy goes to you and to the IRS, which makes it easy for the agency's systems to automatically flag missing or incorrect details, experts say. "We don't know all the things that make an IRS audit happen ," said April Walker, senior manager for tax practice and ethics with the American Institute of CPAs. "But one of the best ways to avoid that is to make sure that you are fully and completely reporting everything." Read more CNBC personal finance coverage How Social Security Fairness Act payments may affect beneficiaries' taxes Credit card debt tops $1.28 trillion, consistent with 'K-shaped' economy: NY Fed How affordability led to a chasm between stock prices, consumer optimism Student loan complaints at record high, CFPB finds, but agency omits details Following Super Bowl ad, Trump accounts launch a new sign-up option Some student loan borrowers wait over a year for public servant debt forgiveness Trump's 'big beautiful bill' may spur the rise of 'un-college,' experts say First the quarter zip, now a '401(k) mullet' — what trends say about the economy How Trump's child tax credit changes could impact your refund this season Some older Americans are 'unretiring' to keep up with cost of living: AARP survey Bitcoin sells off amid 'crypto winter.' What investors need to know It's Medicare Advantage open enrollment: What to know about switching plans Super Bowl ad featuring Trump accounts to air on Sunday — here's a first look Workers with student loan debt have less saved for retirement, Fidelity finds Millions may d...
LAS VEGAS, Feb. 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Live Ventures Incorporated (Nasdaq: LIVE) (“Live Ventures” or the “Company”), a diversified holding company, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2025.
LAS VEGAS, Feb. 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Live Ventures Incorporated (Nasdaq: LIVE) (“Live Ventures” or the “Company”), a diversified holding company, today announced financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2025.