Liudmila Chernetska/iStock via Getty Images TRX Gold Corporation ( TRX ) is a high-margin, early-scale gold producer where the equity story does not rely only on gold prices moving favorably from here but on scaling its already strong unit economics into higher production. The past year has already seen both the tailwinds play out favorably for TRX. Investors who got in a year ago may have already...
Liudmila Chernetska/iStock via Getty Images TRX Gold Corporation ( TRX ) is a high-margin, early-scale gold producer where the equity story does not rely only on gold prices moving favorably from here but on scaling its already strong unit economics into higher production. The past year has already seen both the tailwinds play out favorably for TRX. Investors who got in a year ago may have already seen ~3x returns (~4x at some point in early 2026). So the question for a buy thesis today is how much of the upside remains to be reaped and what risks? Data by YCharts I have a supportive thesis on gold prices. I see the geopolitical uncertainties as continuing to remain elevated, irrespective of how and when the Iran war ends. Inflation is also proving to be sticky (more so after the Iran war and oil shocks). Importantly, gold prices have shown a history of moving in bursts (last seen around the 2008 recession) and undergoing time corrections more than deep pullbacks after sharp rallies. The current rally has seen gold prices touch ~$5.5k/oz and have now corrected by ~15% toward the ~$4.5k/oz mark. I strongly believe that those levels can be considered a floor (even after the rally around 2008-2012, the maximum drawdown we saw was ~25%, and far lower instances and depth of negative 1-year rolling returns). Data by YCharts Gold's rise in Q4 last year was also in part due to uncertainty around equity valuations, overall growth outlook, and the AI trade (capex drag, valuation uncertainties, cooling fears, AI return economics uncertainties, and AI commoditization risks). So, I think it is reasonable to assume a supported regime for gold. My thesis works on the ~$4.5k/oz mark as a floor, and any further upside is an optionality for conservatism. What tilts TRX to a buy is that even assuming no further gold price tailwinds, the production growth trajectory is sufficient to justify further upside for the stock from here. The current rally may have partially factored that in, b...
gonin/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Catalyst: The CFO/COO and portfolio manager make significant share purchases days after the February net asset value is disclosed. Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. ( ECC ) stands to benefit from the recent reversal in leveraged loan spreads. Spreads compressed to post-GFC lows in the fourth quarter of 2025 which is an expression of confidence by investors in the...
gonin/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Catalyst: The CFO/COO and portfolio manager make significant share purchases days after the February net asset value is disclosed. Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. ( ECC ) stands to benefit from the recent reversal in leveraged loan spreads. Spreads compressed to post-GFC lows in the fourth quarter of 2025 which is an expression of confidence by investors in the asset class and a credit tailwind for leveraged loan issuers, as it reduces the overall interest expense burden for borrowers. Nevertheless, shares of ECC are trading close to their 52-week lows, currently at a 20% discount to the February 2026 NAV estimate, and have not seen any significant recovery year to date. The current net asset value of $4.36 reflects the latest mark-to-market valuation of the portfolio, which tends to decline in periods of volatility given the lack of liquidity of the underlying assets. The NAV trajectory has been extremely negative over the last 3 months, with NAV declining 23.5% from $5.70 in December 2025 to $4.36 in only 2 months. The leveraged loan market dispersion in February created significant mark-to-market valuation pressure, which may represent the worst of the dislocation. The core of the investment thesis is based on two factors: first, the recent open-market purchases by CFO/COO Ken Onorio ( 110,000 shares at $3.74, ~$411K) and Portfolio Manager Dan Ko ( 57,165 shares at $3.50, ~$200K) signal that insiders believe the panic-driven selloff has overshot fundamentals. Onorio purchased at a 14.2% discount to the February NAV midpoint. Ko purchased at a 19.7% discount. Second, the private credit crisis driving negative sentiment toward ECC is paradoxically creating a tailwind for the company’s underlying CLO portfolios through par build opportunities as private credit funds liquidate their most liquid BSL holdings at discounted prices. For investors with a 12-month horizon and tolerance for mark-to-market volatility, the risk/reward at c...