primeimages/iStock via Getty Images A U.S.-Iran ceasefire is prompting investors to reassess market sentiment, geopolitical risk, and the outlook for inflation. What does it mean for positioning from here? Michael Craig, Managing Director, Head of Asset Allocation and Derivatives at TD Asset Management, discusses the latest developments and the implications for Canada. Transcript Greg Bonnell: A c...
primeimages/iStock via Getty Images A U.S.-Iran ceasefire is prompting investors to reassess market sentiment, geopolitical risk, and the outlook for inflation. What does it mean for positioning from here? Michael Craig, Managing Director, Head of Asset Allocation and Derivatives at TD Asset Management, discusses the latest developments and the implications for Canada. Transcript Greg Bonnell: A ceasefire between the US and Iran is shifting the tone across global markets. Joining us now to break it all down is Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management. Michael, thanks for joining us. Michael Craig: A pleasure. Greg Bonnell: Right off, what's your view here? Michael Craig: Yeah, a few things. We're in, obviously, a materially better place today than we were a few days ago. We avoided a humanitarian catastrophe which was being threatened by Trump. We're certainly at a worse place than we were versus a month ago. And I think this truly is, in the spirit of a ceasefire, a timeout, but really with no fundamental issues resolved other than just an agreement that we're going to continue to talk. But it's going to be challenging to see how things evolve from here in terms of each side walking away with something. Those demands, I think, are going to be quite difficult to work through. So certainly some relief in the markets, but I don't think that you can wave the all-clear signal at this time. Greg Bonnell: Yeah, you wake up to that relief today or even yesterday evening-- sort of, OK, now we've got this truce. What are we watching now? We've got two weeks, right? What are you watching? Michael Craig: You certainly look for violations of ceasefire. You want to see hostilities dial back in Lebanon, attacks on Gulf infrastructure, and really, to see what happens with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. I think the issue today is that Iran now has really seized control of that choke point. And that choke point has tremendous implications for global gro...
The may be on a hot streak but some of its stocks are absolutely on fire. The index has climbed for seven consecutive days through Thursday’s close—up 7.6% over that period—its longest winning streak since October. Intel stock is the best performer over the S&P 500’s streak, climbing 50%.
The may be on a hot streak but some of its stocks are absolutely on fire. The index has climbed for seven consecutive days through Thursday’s close—up 7.6% over that period—its longest winning streak since October. Intel stock is the best performer over the S&P 500’s streak, climbing 50%.
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) are three ETFs showing considerable relative strength
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) are three ETFs showing considerable relative strength
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images Probably like many of our readers, we began our investment journey with the 60-40 allocation model, (i.e., with a 60% stock allocation and 40% Treasury bond allocation). From hindsight, we were truly lucky to have started with this seemingly simple – and extremely boring – model. It taught us discipline and prevented us from making emotional decisions at key ...
Andrii Dodonov/iStock via Getty Images Probably like many of our readers, we began our investment journey with the 60-40 allocation model, (i.e., with a 60% stock allocation and 40% Treasury bond allocation). From hindsight, we were truly lucky to have started with this seemingly simple – and extremely boring – model. It taught us discipline and prevented us from making emotional decisions at key market junctures. Moreover, it also helped us to capture the longer cycles of both assets and essentially forced us to buy low and sell high. However, after following the model for more than 15 years, we felt we learned enough to question the approach in 2020 when Treasury rates dropped to near-zero levels amid the epic easing engineered by the Fed in the wakes of the COVID pandemic. It is the goal of this article to apply the lessons we learned since than to the current market conditions. In the end, our conclusion is that 2026 is likely a bad year to follow this template for several reasons. And the top reason on our list is inflation. Per the March inflation data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, largely due to the Iran war, annual inflation rate was 3.3%, putting the Federal Reserve further from its ~2% inflation target. More details of the data are quoted below and shown in the next chart. CNBC news: Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy prices spiked due to Iran conflict. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in February. Next, we will explore the implications of such inflation rate on the performance of the 40-60 model. CNBC Real rates are new record low and likely to become lower With the large allocation of bonds in the model, a key for the 60-40 model to work is a satisfactory yield from the bond hold...
The latest tally of analyst opinions from the major brokerage houses shows that among the components of the S&P 500 index, Applied Materials (AMAT) is now the #52 analyst pick, moving up by 1 spot. This rank is formed by averaging the analyst opinions for each compo
The latest tally of analyst opinions from the major brokerage houses shows that among the components of the S&P 500 index, Applied Materials (AMAT) is now the #52 analyst pick, moving up by 1 spot. This rank is formed by averaging the analyst opinions for each compo