We have so many struggles going on right now that it's hard to believe the market can stay up at this level for much longer. It's a visceral moment where the losses mount quickly if you are on the wrong side of the trade. We all know that it's time to embrace the bear, right? But we always recall that when we declare we cannot take it anymore and sell — whether it be in the days after "Liberation ...
We have so many struggles going on right now that it's hard to believe the market can stay up at this level for much longer. It's a visceral moment where the losses mount quickly if you are on the wrong side of the trade. We all know that it's time to embrace the bear, right? But we always recall that when we declare we cannot take it anymore and sell — whether it be in the days after "Liberation Day" or the days leading up to last week's Iran war truce — we're immediately proven wrong. The result: The selling that can go from a trickle to a flood stays at a trickle longer than we think, aided, of course, by a brain-dead bond market that doesn't seem to care about the fundamentals, even as that's all it is supposed to care about. The benign bond market, though, masks some cogent themes. They need to be looked in to. So, let's do this. Let's examine the three most salient battlegrounds in play right now: Iran, software and earnings, not because they are emblematic of the market, but because there is nothing emblematic about this market at all. Instead it is just tugs-of-war that are surprisingly disparate and surprisingly separate from each other. Iran war First, we know the Iran war basically caused oil to double from where it started the year — that is, before last week's big decline on the two-week ceasefire news . Nevertheless, if history was our guide , the S & P 500 should be down some 20% from its highs right now. Not only is history being disobeyed, but since the market rally began in all of it pessimistic glory two weeks ago, we are capable of punching to new highs with another strong week. The S & P 500 ended Friday 2.3% below its Jan. 27 all-time closing high. At its lows of the year on March 30, the index was off 9% from the highs. Why is that? First, we use less oil than we used to for a variety of industries, including the refining of gasoline. Interestingly, it is not our continental self-sufficiency that has helped keep down the price of oil or gasoli...
When a hedge fund or institutional investor shorts a stock, it means that they are essentially betting on the stock to go down. Every month, Hazeltree, a Treasury and liquidity management firm that tracks alternative asset managers, publishes a list of the most shorted stocks. In February, with the latest report, Hazeltree revealed that cloud-computing firm Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) was among the most s...
When a hedge fund or institutional investor shorts a stock, it means that they are essentially betting on the stock to go down. Every month, Hazeltree, a Treasury and liquidity management firm that tracks alternative asset managers, publishes a list of the most shorted stocks. In February, with the latest report, Hazeltree revealed that cloud-computing firm Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) was among the most shorted large-cap stocks in North America. Oracle stock has been moving lower this year due to its high valuation, high AI spending and debt, and concerns about its reliance on OpenAI (which is unprofitable and has high cash burn, among other issues). Add to that the recent geopolitical conflicts, and Oracle's stock has been steadily moving lower since February. The stock is down about 29% year to date. Over the past year, its price has been effectively flat (down 1.3%), which significantly trails the S&P 500 's 25% gain over the past year. Furthermore, it did not make the list of AI stocks that hedge funds are buying the most, according to Motley Fool research . Continue reading
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) just delivered huge growth, stronger commercial traction, and a much bigger backlog, yet the stock is still trading far below its high. That disconnect could be the biggest opportunity in the story right now. Stock prices used were the market prices of April 2, 2026. The video was published on April 11, 2026. Continue reading
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) just delivered huge growth, stronger commercial traction, and a much bigger backlog, yet the stock is still trading far below its high. That disconnect could be the biggest opportunity in the story right now. Stock prices used were the market prices of April 2, 2026. The video was published on April 11, 2026. Continue reading
Key PointsThe ProShares Ultra S&P 500 is a leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has delivered average annual returns of 14.5% over nearly 20 years.
Key PointsThe ProShares Ultra S&P 500 is a leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has delivered average annual returns of 14.5% over nearly 20 years.
Orbán Concedes: 16-Year Fidesz Rule Collapses In Historic Hungarian Landslide In a stunning collapse that ends 16 years of uninterrupted rule, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has conceded defeat in Sunday’s parliamentary elections , according to statements from opposition leader Péter Magyar. With early results showing the Tisza Party on track for 128 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly ...
Orbán Concedes: 16-Year Fidesz Rule Collapses In Historic Hungarian Landslide In a stunning collapse that ends 16 years of uninterrupted rule, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has conceded defeat in Sunday’s parliamentary elections , according to statements from opposition leader Péter Magyar. With early results showing the Tisza Party on track for 128 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly and Fidesz collapsing to just 62 seats (based on more than 21% of votes counted), Orbán’s long-dominant alliance has suffered a decisive repudiation . Four years after securing a supermajority of 135 seats, Fidesz is projected to fall well short of even a simple majority. Hungary Election Update (21:12 CET) Official NVI count (21.54% processed): 🔹 Tisza (Magyar): 56.4% (128 seats) 🔸 Fidesz (Orbán): 37.8% (62 seats) 📈 Turnout: Record 77.8% Magyar holding a steady lead as counting continues. 🇭🇺 #HungaryElection #Magyar #Orbán — Mandolin Rain (@Mandolin__Rain) April 12, 2026 The concession, delivered as vote tallies continued to roll in with record 77.8% turnout , marks the first time in the post-communist era that Orbán’s Fidesz has lost control of parliament. It validates the dire warning Orbán himself issued just days ago in his final campaign rally: “ We could now lose everything .” Péter Magyar, the 43-year-old former Fidesz insider who rocketed Tisza from fringe movement to projected governing force in under two years, hailed the moment as a turning point for Hungary. “Today the Hungarian people have chosen change,” Magyar told supporters in Budapest. “ Orbán has conceded. A new era begins .” The scale of the upset is seismic. Tisza appears headed not only for a simple majority (requiring 100 seats) but potentially the two-thirds supermajority (133 seats) needed to rewrite cardinal laws and amend the constitution — the very tools Orbán used to entrench his “illiberal democracy” model. What the Numbers Mean Tisza : ~128 seats (and climbing as more precincts report) Fidesz...
Andrzej Rostek/iStock via Getty Images Early moves in currency markets are pointing to a risk-off tone ahead of the U.S. trading session, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks. The Australian dollar, often viewed as a proxy for global risk appetite, dropped sharply in early trading Monday, offering a po...
Andrzej Rostek/iStock via Getty Images Early moves in currency markets are pointing to a risk-off tone ahead of the U.S. trading session, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks. The Australian dollar, often viewed as a proxy for global risk appetite, dropped sharply in early trading Monday, offering a potential preview of how equities may open. “AUD extending losses in early trade to around 0.8% now…back of the envelope maths extrapolating that points to spoos down 1.4-1.6% at the globex open in 3hrs time…” Michael Brown, a foreign exchange strategist at Australian brokerage Pepperstone, in a post on X. The relationship between the Australian dollar and S&P 500 futures ( SPX ), commonly referred to as “spoos,” is closely watched by traders as a real-time gauge of market sentiment. The currency tends to weaken when investors pull back from risk, often preceding declines in equity futures. Brown’s estimate suggests that the selloff in the aussie could translate into a notable drop in U.S. stock futures when trading resumes, reflecting heightened geopolitical anxiety. Markets are reacting to a rapidly escalating situation in the Middle East. Trump’s blockade threat targets one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, while the failure of diplomatic talks with Iran has raised fears of further disruption to oil flows and global trade. If the correlation holds, the currency move may be an early signal of broader market stress, with equities poised to follow as investors digest the implications of rising geopolitical risk. More on Australian Dollar / US Dollar, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, etc. Markets May Be Pricing In The Wrong Outcome Iran: Not Close To Over Yet The 1-Minute Market Report, April 12, 2026 S&P down, oil up on blockchain after U.S.-Iran talks end with no deal Notable analyst calls this week: Netflix, Carvana and Marvell Technology among top picks