Jair Ferreira Belafacce/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The savvy and valuation-conscious investor with a fair bit of luck could make a case that my thesis on Polaris, given in the article found here, was ill-timed and that profit could have been made by investing in Polaris ( PII ) contrary to my forecast. While this would be true, the return that I believe most investors are likely to have as ...
Jair Ferreira Belafacce/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The savvy and valuation-conscious investor with a fair bit of luck could make a case that my thesis on Polaris, given in the article found here, was ill-timed and that profit could have been made by investing in Polaris ( PII ) contrary to my forecast. While this would be true, the return that I believe most investors are likely to have as a result of the company is, for the time being, negative, as per the following RoR and underperformance. Seeking Alpha Polaris RoR Polaris is a trickier business than investors give it credit for. Many analysts cite Polaris as being a safe and reliable manufacturer of off-road vehicles, even with military and other appealing applications. They, however, miss that the company, in the past few years, has been tested on exactly these assumptions, and in many cases failed to live up to its expectations - and the proof of this is both in results and other analyzable factors in the companies. Whenever something is coined as being a "value investment", I tend to pay attention. Many times, what I am seeing is, in fact, a value investment, an attractive one, that I can invest in. Other times, however, what we turn out to have is an investment that, for one reason or another, is in fact not a value investment at all , but a mix of a value trap and a company that has seen its "best days" come and go. The two sides for the company we're looking at are basically one saying that this is a value investment, with recent results reinforcing the value proposition, and the other, to which I belong, saying that this is not necessarily a value investment and needs to be priced contrary to how it used to be viewed a few years ago. In this article, I will look at my thesis given 4 months ago, what signs there are that I should upgrade my $40 PT that I gave for the company in that piece, and what (if any) signs there are that things are not looking up at all. Polaris - Upside is There if You Premi...
Union Bancaire Privée is buying gold again after cutting a significant position in response to an Iran war-induced slump, saying it believes the long-term outlook remains intact. The Swiss private bank is gradually adding bullion to discretionary client portfolios after cutting exposure to 3% from around 10%. The metal has tumbled since the war began due to fears of higher interest rates, and a li...
Union Bancaire Privée is buying gold again after cutting a significant position in response to an Iran war-induced slump, saying it believes the long-term outlook remains intact. The Swiss private bank is gradually adding bullion to discretionary client portfolios after cutting exposure to 3% from around 10%. The metal has tumbled since the war began due to fears of higher interest rates, and a liquidity squeeze that saw traders offload holdings to cover losses elsewhere. “We have taken the first steps to rebuild” gold portfolios after the flush-out of “one-sided positions,” Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management in Asia Paras Gupta said in an interview. The bullion positions of institutional and retail investors are now “quite balanced,” he added. The bank managed around CHF184.5 billion ($233 billion) of client asset as of last year. UBP is looking to further rebuild its gold positions, consisting mostly of bullion-backed exchange-traded funds, after they recovered to around 6% of discretionary portfolios. Gupta said the bank still sees prices rising to $6,000 an ounce by the end of the year as structural demand — including central bank buying, concerns about fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, remain intact. Gold fell on Monday after US-Iran peace talks ended without resolution and the US said it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Bullion has fallen by around a 10th since the war began as investors focus on inflationary risks as energy prices surge. “The risk of inflation is coming in more immediately,” Gupta said. This could weigh on gold in the short term, but the macro forecast does not point toward recession, he added. UBP’s view echoes a slew of investment banks that have recently affirmed bullion’s longer-term outlook despite the recent downturn. ANZ Banking Group Ltd. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have projected gold prices to go higher. Dip-buyers have recently stepped in to help bullion claw back some losses. Global holdings by gold-backed ET...
Emerging assets declined as escalating tensions in the Middle East following a breakdown in peace negotiations sapped risk sentiment. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell as much as 1.2% in Asian trading, weighed by tech shares including Samsung Electronics Co. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. Currencies in the region mostly weakened against the dollar, with the Indian rupee and South African rand droppi...
Emerging assets declined as escalating tensions in the Middle East following a breakdown in peace negotiations sapped risk sentiment. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell as much as 1.2% in Asian trading, weighed by tech shares including Samsung Electronics Co. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. Currencies in the region mostly weakened against the dollar, with the Indian rupee and South African rand dropping more than 0.7% each. The Hungarian forint outperformed after a landslide win by the pro-European opposition party. A surge in oil prices back above $100 a barrel after US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is raising inflationary concerns for countries reliant on crude imports, particularly in Asia. The escalation halted a rebound in emerging assets after last week’s ceasefire lifted hopes that the war was nearing an end. “The weakness is not completely done, it will be a slow bleed for a lot of the energy importers,” said Abbas Keshvani , a macro strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Singapore. “Every day that energy prices remain high , importers in places like India and Korea are having to bid for more dollars than they normally do — this represents a gradual, regular bid for dollars.” Global Bonds Slide as Failure of Talks Adds to Inflation Fears Failure of US-Iran Talks Weigh on Risk Assets Monday Hungary’s currency gained around 2% against the euro after Prime Minister Viktor Orban was ousted in a landslide victory by Peter Magyar’s Tisza party. The result vindicates bets by investors who had been positioning for the historic win, which may help unlock access to billions of euros in European Union funding. The “market was already pricing some chances of Tisza victory but with supermajority there is decent room for Hungarian assets to outperform,” Morgan Stanley economists and strategists including Georgi Deyanov wrote in a note to clients. “Even though external backdrop is not supportive, these results would be quite positive to reduc...
格隆汇4月13日｜据澎湃，有市场消息称，荣耀正与字节跳动就“豆包手机”相关合作展开接洽。对此，有知情人士透露，目前细节尚未达成一致。去年12月，中兴通讯与字节合作推出了豆包AI手机。2025年12月5日，豆包手机助手发布《关于调整AI操作手机能力的说明》，称计划在接下来的一段时间，在部分场景，对AI操作手机的能力做一些规范化调整。还强调，将积极与各方沟通，希望推动形成更加清晰、可预期的规则，避免用一刀切的方式否定用户合理使用 AI 的权利。
Sunshine Seeds U.S. President Donald Trump said oil and gasoline prices could stay elevated through November’s midterm elections, acknowledging potential political fallout from his decision to strike Iran six weeks earlier. "It could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same," Trump, who is in Miami for the weekend, told Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures With...
Sunshine Seeds U.S. President Donald Trump said oil and gasoline prices could stay elevated through November’s midterm elections, acknowledging potential political fallout from his decision to strike Iran six weeks earlier. "It could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same," Trump, who is in Miami for the weekend, told Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo" when asked whether the cost of oil and gas would be lower by the fall. The average price for regular gas at U.S. service stations has exceeded $4 per gallon for most of April, according to data from GasBuddy. Average U.S. gas prices in February hovered just below $3 per gallon, and over the past year never exceeded $3.25 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. Earlier on Sunday, Trump announced on social media that the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and intercept any ship that paid a crossing fee to Iran, after marathon talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend did not yield a peace deal. Several hours after Trump's post, U.S. Central Command said the blockade would be limited to ships going to and from Iranian ports. Ships entering and exiting non-Iranian ports will not be stopped by U.S. forces, CENTCOM said. More on energy, etc. Commodities: Oil Supported By Ongoing Supply Risks Reinventing The Petrodollar: How U.S. Energy Dominance Is Shifting The Global Balance Of Power Oil Just Doesn't Want To Correct With Persistent Ceasefire Uncertainty - WTI Technical Analysis Oil surges past $100 as U.S. moves to blockade Iran’s ports Trump says fuel prices may stay elevated as Iran conflict weighs on economy
China’s tea-drink market, with estimated annual sales of 370 billion yuan (US$54.2 billion), has become yet another example of involution as brutal price competition threatens to expel thousands of unprofitable small players. The dire scenario represents a rude reminder to those who hope to strike it rich by investing in a fast-growing business in mainland China’s vast consumer market, which aboun...
China’s tea-drink market, with estimated annual sales of 370 billion yuan (US$54.2 billion), has become yet another example of involution as brutal price competition threatens to expel thousands of unprofitable small players. The dire scenario represents a rude reminder to those who hope to strike it rich by investing in a fast-growing business in mainland China’s vast consumer market, which abounds with boom-to-bust cycles. “Bubble tea is a dynamic market, and it is never easy to make money...
"Bloomberg: The Asia Trade" brings you everything you need to know to get ahead as the trading day begins in Asia. Bloomberg TV is live from Tokyo and Sydney with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts, getting insight and analysis from newsmakers and industry leaders on the biggest stories shaping global markets. (Source: Bloomberg)
"Bloomberg: The Asia Trade" brings you everything you need to know to get ahead as the trading day begins in Asia. Bloomberg TV is live from Tokyo and Sydney with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts, getting insight and analysis from newsmakers and industry leaders on the biggest stories shaping global markets. (Source: Bloomberg)
Chinese clean‑tech manufacturers are beginning to benefit from the supply crunch in the Persian Gulf, as rising oil and natural gas prices and a renewed emphasis on energy security boost demand for batteries and electric vehicles. More than six weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, customers hoping to shield themselves from the extra costs are incre...
Chinese clean‑tech manufacturers are beginning to benefit from the supply crunch in the Persian Gulf, as rising oil and natural gas prices and a renewed emphasis on energy security boost demand for batteries and electric vehicles. More than six weeks after US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, customers hoping to shield themselves from the extra costs are increasingly turning to greener solutions. Ningbo Deye Technology Co. , a major producer of energy storage systems and inverters, said last week it expects first-quarter profit to climb as much as 70% on a surge in overseas orders. Meanwhile, exports of Chinese-made electric vehicles and hybrids more than doubled in March to a record 349,000 units, as higher fuel prices renew the appetite for alternatives to gasoline-powered cars. Deye attributed the jump in profit directly to geopolitical turmoil, with households and companies in Europe and Southeast Asia increasingly looking to battery storage. Automakers such as BYD Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are likewise benefiting, with industry observers noting parallels with the 1970s oil shock, when Japan gained global market share by offering fuel‑efficient cars during a period of sustained turmoil. Chinese firms are uniquely well-positioned, given their dominance of clean energy supply chains from solar panels to batteries and EVs. Years spent building up capacity, often at the expense of profitability, have allowed them to quickly scale-up distribution at competitive prices. Read More: China Reminds Battery Makers to Avoid Excess Capacity Growth But the export boom also masks continued weakness at home. Domestic EV and hybrid sales fell again in March, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. China’s pivot to consumption-led growth has yet to materialize, leaving it overly reliant on foreign buyers. In the event of a prolonged war, the hit to the global economy could shrink overseas demand — and sharply reverse the gai...
Malaysia’s maritime authorities detained two tankers and its crew members suspected of conducting an illegal ship-to-ship diesel transfer off Penang, in one of the latest crackdowns on illicit fuel activities in the country’s waters. The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency seized about 800,000 liters of diesel, including roughly 700,000 liters believed to have been transferred between the vessel...
Malaysia’s maritime authorities detained two tankers and its crew members suspected of conducting an illegal ship-to-ship diesel transfer off Penang, in one of the latest crackdowns on illicit fuel activities in the country’s waters. The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency seized about 800,000 liters of diesel, including roughly 700,000 liters believed to have been transferred between the vessels without authorization, Penang maritime director Muhammad Suffi Mohd Ramli said in a statement on Facebook. Authorities acted on a tip-off regarding suspicious movements involving two ships anchored in the waters of Bagan Ajam on Saturday. An inspection found the vessels operating in tandem. “The inspection found that the two ships were in a state of partnership and it was suspected that they were carrying out oil transfer activities from ship to ship without permission,” Mohammad Suffi said. The seized fuel, identified as Euro 5 diesel, is estimated to be worth about 5.43 million ringgit ($1.4 million). The total value of the seizure, including the two tankers, was put at about 2.33 billion ringgit. Authorities also arrested 22 crew members from Malaysia, Myanmar, Russia, the Philippines and Indonesia. Maritime authorities will continue to tighten patrols and monitoring of the country’s waters to combat illegal oil transfer activities, according to the statement.