Oracle Stock Climbs As Massive AI Bets Accelerate timothysykes.com

lakshmiprasad S The head of the International Energy Agency said oil prices will soon reflect how severely the Iran war has impacted shipments from the Persian Gulf. “Prices are already high, but they are not reflecting the severity of the problem—I agree there is a disconnect,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council on Monday, according to Bloomberg . “But I think soon we will see they will converge, which is an extremely sensitive issue for the global economy.” Birol said the armed conflict has caused oil exports from that region to drop by around 13M barrels a day and damage to over 80 energy facilities. Birol added that it may take up to two years for the region to recover. Bloomberg noted that while oil futures were currently trading at around $100 per barrel, they were below highs reached during the global financial crisis in 2008 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. More on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, State Street® Energy Select Sector SPDR® ETF, etc. Climbing A Wall Of Worry Dow Jones And U.S. Stock Market Outlook: U.S. Blockade On Hormuz Begins - Wall Street Withstands The Pressure This Is What The Early Stages Of A Recession Look Like Markets may be further along in correction than they appear, Morgan Stanley says Trump warns Iranian ships as Hormuz blockade gets underway

Rebecca Babin, senior equity trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth, said that the markets are using a two month base case as the predicted time it would take to get oil production back up and running after the end of war with Iran, a timeline she finds 'optimistic.' Babin said that even if US oil exports grows to 5 million barrels a day, it still won't be enough to fill in the supply lost to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (Source: Bloomberg)

Cameco and Oklo will benefit from the surging demand for nuclear power.

Key PointsCameco will profit from rising uranium prices.

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格隆汇4月14日｜上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 4月13日（周一）晚盘收盘下跌0.11%报1040.05元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 4月13日（周一）晚盘收盘上涨0.99%报18630.0元/千克。

格隆汇4月14日｜据Politico：美国参议院银行委员会已收到沃什的伦理申报文件，但仍在等待其问卷回复。

After fighting erupted once again between Hezbollah and Israel last month after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Israel launched a bombing campaign and ground invasion of southern Lebanon, displacing more than 1.2 million people and killing more than 2,000. Israel says it will occupy swathes of southern Lebanon and that homes near its so-called buffer zone will be destroyed ‘in accordance with the Rafah and Beit Hanoun model in Gaza’, prompting fears of long-term displacement. The Israeli military has said it is targeting Hezbollah infrastructure such as tunnels and military facilities, which it claims the armed group has embedded in civilian homes. Ghia Hajo, who was displaced from her home near Tyre on 2 March alongside her family, does not know when she will be able to return home. Will Christou, who reports from Lebanon for the Guardian, asks what the future might look like for the country and people like Ghia Continue reading...

【有線新聞】中學文憑試，公民與社會發展科開考。 公民科早上開考，來到今屆最後一科核心科，考生有逾5萬人，近4.6萬人是學校考生。成績只分「達標」和「未達標」，有學校說轉考公民科第三年，過去兩屆學生這一科達標率有八、九成，相信師生都逐漸熟習。亦有不少考生說未敢輕視這科，有人提早一小時到場溫習。 應屆文憑試考生黃先生：「經歷過前三科後，都難免可能被考卷嚇倒。因為今年考評局推出了很多新題型，難免之前例如數學科打擊了少少信心，但在家中調整心態，總之做到平常表現應該可以。」應屆文憑試考生謝先生：「很緊張，怕考得不好。（哪個部分較緊張？）怕做卷時間不夠，因為資料題要寫很多內容。」 聖士提反堂中學校長麥偉麟：「已經是第三年，相信同學已習慣考核模式，相對首兩年他們應該更能應付自如，老師更準確掌握要求。這科隨日子漸久，相信同學也好、老師也好、學校也好，在各方面準備或同學應試上應該愈來愈好。」

【有線新聞】宏福苑再有單位懷疑被爆竊。 有宏昌閣高層居民星期一收到「一戶一社工」三張拍攝單位內的相片，發現屋內有被搜掠的痕跡，其中一張所見睡房有櫃桶被打開，裝有現金及珠寶首飾的盒子有被搜掠過的痕跡，懷疑遭盜竊，擔心有其他貴重財物失竊。居民已報警求助，但引述警方指現時只能備案，上樓當日若發現有財物失竊才能正式報案。

以色列国防军13日发表声明说，自8日以来，针对黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特、贝卡谷地和黎南地区的空袭已导致超过250名黎真主党成员身亡。 声明称，以军空袭行动对黎真主党的作战指挥控制设施造成了“精准而沉重”的打击。声明还公布了部分已身亡的黎真主党指挥人员身份信息，称这些指挥人员负责真主党的关键作战体系，包括武器运输、情报工作以及火力部署等。 以总理内塔尼亚胡9日说，他已指示以内阁与黎巴嫩政府展开直接谈判，但同时称以色列在黎巴嫩“没有停火”，将“继续全力打击黎巴嫩真主党”。 内塔尼亚胡11日又说，“消灭（黎巴嫩）真主党”是以色列与黎巴嫩进行停火谈判的先决条件。 据报道，以色列和黎巴嫩驻美大使预计将于14日在美国华盛顿举行会谈。(新华社)

Goldman Sachs ( GS ), kicking off Q1 earnings season instead of the usual JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) earnings announcement, posted top and bottom lines that exceeded Wall Street consensus estimates. However, its stock dipped 2.1% in Monday afternoon trading, indicating investors were disappointed with some aspects of the results. Part of the trading weakness could be that the Wall Street stalwart didn't exceed the average analyst by an even bigger margin, creating a "sell on the news" event. "All in, strong quarter from Goldman, but feels a little like a semi-typical sell the news, as expectations were high, the tax rate was a big help, and maybe most importantly, today’s renewed macro concerns will make people confident about the sustainability of trading but less so on investment banking (temporarily)," Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr wrote in a note to clients (before Goldman's 9:30 AM ET conference call). Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski described the firm's fundamental earnings as "basically on target." However, a lower income tax rate of 13.2%, compared with Opco's 20.0% estimate, helped drive the beat, he said. Furthermore, fixed income revenue ($4.01B) missed Opco's estimate by $1.09B, and Asset & Wealth Management's revenue of $4.08B lagged the Opco estimate by $118M. Citi analyst Keith Horowitz attributed the stock's decline to a slight top-line miss, mostly from FICC (fixed income, commodities, and currencies), a slightly elevated loan loss provision, and a large decline in its common equity tier 1 ratio. "The capital decline was due to a combination of: 1) 70 bp from $5B buybacks (average price of $926) and 2) increased balance sheet usage, and 3) we believe higher counterparty risk (likely contributing to both higher RWA [risk weighted assets] and a roughly $1.3B negative adjustment to CET1)," Citi's Horowitz said. More details on RWA and CET1 adjustments will be included in Goldman's 10-Q filing. Oppenheimer's Kotowski also pointed out that “other” rev...

当地时间13日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐与俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫通电话，双方就最新地区局势发展以及在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡举行的伊美会谈交换了意见。（央视新闻）

The United Nations urged countries not to limit shipments of energy and fertilizers as the conflict in the Middle East deepens, warning that such restrictions in the past have exacerbated spikes in global food prices.

rawintanpin/iStock via Getty Images By Geoff Bysshe After intense negotiations over the weekend with Iran, the end result has been an announcement that the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. A few weeks ago, this news would have likely sent the stock market tumbling. Now, however, it will likely be viewed as little more than a speed bump, as the market races into earnings season. The market’s message last week was very clearly one that looked through the risks of elevated oil prices and the Iran war, and focused on the risks and benefits of the AI revolution across various sectors of the economy. Stocks Put The War On The Back Burner In last week’s Market Outlook , we highlighted the market rotation that was forming a bottom and economic news that could support a more bullish market narrative. This was supported by the fact that the bond market had also stopped going down in the face of higher crude prices and other news that would normally put pressure on rates to move higher. The market was ready to rally before the ceasefire news, so the welcome catalyst created a strong rally that held up and followed through in the indexes and several key sectors. The war’s market bottom is in. Now it’s up to earnings to keep the bull market intact. With earnings taking center stage, the economy, interest rates, and inflation will be the supporting cast of characters. Wall St. vs. Consumers On Inflation Everyone is expecting higher oil prices to lead to higher inflation in the near term, and Friday’s CPI data proved this to be true. As you can see in the month-over-month CPI chart below, last month's data jumped significantly. Shown below, the year-over-year measure also has an accelerating look to it, as it jumped to the highest level since early 2024. If the chart below were of a stock’s price, the technician would surely suggest there is strong support at the 2.5% level, and the bounce suggests more upside ahead and little chance we’ll see the Fed’s 2% target anytime s...

From the world's preeminent AI chip manufacturer to a soaring space stock not named Rocket Lab, insiders are buying and selling these key names.

Excitement and disbelief mix on the streets of Budapest after record turnout drives opposition’s landslide victory Péter Magyar vows to pursue those who ‘plundered’ Hungary, after election win In a small plaza facing Budapest’s Nyugati train station, Gabor, 40, confessed that he was very, very hungover. “I partied all night,” he said, laughing. “It was crazy, I thought Fidesz was going to win. Now I’m really hopeful.” Continue reading...

Broadcom Technical Analysis: Will The AVGO Rally Continue? - Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) Benzinga

Currencies weaken and risk assets retreat as Hormuz tensions raise inflation concerns, while Hungary rallies on election outcome

Alua Capital Management is closing its $2 billion hedge fund after about five years, concluding its returns were inadequate despite some periods of strong performance. “We are disappointed in this outcome for all of our investors, and ourselves,” co-founders Tom Purcell and Marco Tablada wrote in a letter Monday announcing the firm’s closing. Alua’s global stock fund had an annualized return of 4% from its start in November 2020 through the first quarter of this year, according to investors, who asked not to be named discussing non-public information. A firm executive declined to comment beyond the letter. Alua was among the biggest launches of 2020, raising almost $2 billion from clients attracted by the founders’ strong investment pedigrees. The next half-decade brought historic interest rate changes, global events and technological change that created both opportunities and risks for investors, the pair wrote in their letter. “This is an alpha-driven business, and you should expect your managers to be alpha generators in any environment, regardless of how volatile that environment might be,” the founders wrote. Purcell worked at Andreas Halvorsen ’s Viking Global Investors for more than 14 years, eventually becoming co-chief investment officer. He ran his own family office for a few years before teaming up with Tablada and founding Alua. Tablada spent 16 years at Steve Mandel’s Lone Pine Capital , where he was a portfolio manager and a member of the management committee. The duo have already sold down much of the portfolio and expect to return capital to investors before the end of June, the letter said.

财联社4月14日讯（编辑 赵昊） 在美军开始对进出霍尔木兹海峡的船只进行阻截后，伦敦铝价跃升至四年来的最高水平。截至周一（4月13日）收盘，LME期铝收涨109美元，报3608美元/吨。 与此同时，有数据显示，盘中现货铝价相对期货进一步走强，“现货溢价”（backwardation）一度较上周五飙升43%，达到每吨95.50美元，这一行情表明买家正争相寻求即时交付，并寻找替代供应来源。 上周末，美军中央司令部说，将根据总统命令于美国东部时间13日10时开始对所有进出伊朗港口的海上交通实施封锁。 美军中央司令部声明说，该封锁措施适用于所有进出伊朗港口及该国沿海区域的各国船只，涵盖位于波斯湾和阿曼湾的所有伊朗港口。 发稿前不久，英国海上贸易行动办公室13日发布通告说，自协调世界时13日14时（北京时间13日22时）起，美国针对伊朗港口及沿海区域的海上通行限制措施已经实施。 据了解， 中东地区约占全球铝产量的9%。其中，美国和以色列在阿联酋铝工业领域投入大量资金，并利用其生产包括F-35型隐形战斗机在内的各类战斗机以及导弹、坦克和装甲车。 本月早些时候，中东地区最大铝金属生产商——阿联酋全球铝业公司（Emirates Global Aluminium）炼厂遭伊朗袭击停产，已对部分订单启动不可抗力条款。 ING集团大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey在报告中表示：“霍尔木兹海峡航运若持续中断，将导致供应紧张，并支撑区域溢价，尤其是在库存仍然相对低迷的情况下。” 发稿前不久，伍德麦肯兹全球铝市场高级研究经理Uday Patel发布报告表示，阿联酋和巴林冶炼厂遭受袭击加剧了金属供应风险，“我们预测2026年市场缺口可能高达400万吨，全球产量将同比下降3%。” Patel提到，区域生产商面临的首要挑战是确保充足的氧化铝和其他原材料供应，以维持生产，“现货溢价交易已感受到市场紧张的气氛，我们看到MJP合约和欧洲完税报价均已立即重新定价。”

Alexyz3d/iStock via Getty Images Morgan Stanley is casting a wider net on the space theme. In a note to clients, analyst Adam Jonas mapped 60 publicly traded names across the supply chain, from rare earths and industrial gases to semis, optics, launch systems and satellite communications. The point is that the space trade is increasingly an industrial ecosystem story beyond just rocket launches and satellite operators. Morgan Stanley framed the list as a way for investors to access the theme through the companies that supply the hardware, materials, components and services that keep the sector running. The Space 60 list is: MP Materials ( MP ) — Rare earths Almonty Industries ( ALM ) — Tungsten Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) — Copper, molybdenum, gold, rhenium, silver Alcoa ( AA ) — Aluminum, gallium Teck Resources ( TECK ) — Copper, germanium, indium, cadmium Carpenter Technology ( CRS ) — Specialty metal alloys ATI ( ATI ) — Specialty metal alloys Materion ( MTRN ) — Beryllium alloys, lenses, mirrors Corning ( GLW ) — Glass, lenses, mirrors Hexcel ( HXL ) — Composites Park Aerospace ( PKE ) — Composites, metal assemblies Linde ( LIN ) — Gases: LH2, LOX, LN2, CH4, He, Ar, Kr, Xe Air Products ( APD ) — Gases: LH2, LOX, LN2, CH4, He, Ar, Kr, Xe Air Liquide (AI-FR) — Gases: LH2, LOX, LN2, CH4, He, Ar, Kr, Xe NewMarket ( NEU ) — Hydrazine, ammonium perchlorate Analog Devices ( ADI ) — Rad-hardened semis STMicro ( STM ) — Rad-hardened semis Infineon (IFX-DE) — Rad-hardened semis Microchip Technology ( MCHP ) — Rad-hardened semis Qorvo ( QRVO ) — RF products, semis Mercury Systems ( MRCY ) — RF products, semis TTM Technologies ( TTMI ) — Printed circuit boards Broadcom ( AVGO ) — Networking Coherent ( COHR ) — Laser optics Lumentum ( LITE ) — Laser optics NVIDIA ( NVDA ) — Space-based compute Teledyne ( TDY ) — Imaging, infrared cameras RBC Bearings ( RBC ) — Bearings Parker Hannifin ( PH ) — Valves Ametek ( AME ) — Sensors, tubing, propulsion sub-components Amphenol ( APH ) —...

Source: Bloomberg, 5:18

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