Boris_Zec/E+ via Getty Images Amid sharp market volatility this year, I continue to encourage investors to keep our heads down and focus on fundamentals over the fear that is gripping the markets. While the S&P 500 is still clinging near all-time highs, investors are ducking for safety and selling out of tech stocks, due to growing fear that AI may pose a net headwind rather than an upside catalys...
Boris_Zec/E+ via Getty Images Amid sharp market volatility this year, I continue to encourage investors to keep our heads down and focus on fundamentals over the fear that is gripping the markets. While the S&P 500 is still clinging near all-time highs, investors are ducking for safety and selling out of tech stocks, due to growing fear that AI may pose a net headwind rather than an upside catalyst, Amid continued pessimism, small caps continue to provide tremendous value, and Talkspace ( TALK ) is a stock that is substantially overlooked. While many tech stocks have collapsed over the past few months, Talkspace has surged, with a recent strong Q4 earnings print sending the stock up more than 25% and bringing gains over the past year to more than 50%. In my view, this trend of outperformance is set to continue. Data by YCharts I last wrote a buy opinion on Talkspace in November, when the stock was hovering just above $3 per share. Since then, Talkspace has delivered accelerated revenue, while also offering investors a relatively macro-immune business (since most of the sessions on Talkspace’s platform are now covered by insurers and employers) with low correlation to the broader S&P 500. In my view, the stock market is just beginning to wake up to Talkspace’s merits, while its low valuation still has plenty of room to climb higher. I’m reiterating my buy rating here. Since a cheap valuation continues to be the primary reason to invest in this stock, let’s open the discussion with a check-in on how the stock’s recent rally stacks up against its latest outlook for 2026. At current post-earnings share prices near $5, Talkspace trades at a market cap of $835.7 million. After netting off the $92.6 million of cash against zero debt on the company’s most recent balance sheet, Talkspace’s resulting enterprise value is $743.1 million. For FY26, Talkspace is guiding to $275-290 million in revenue, or 20-27% y/y growth. The company is expecting continued strength in payor addi...
On Thursday, Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said artificial general intelligence could reshape the world faster than any prior technological shift — if handled responsibly. AGI Could Transform Society Faster Than Any Previous Revolution Speaking at the India AI Impact Summit 2026, Hassabis said AGI may trigger one of the most consequential eras in h...
On Thursday, Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said artificial general intelligence could reshape the world faster than any prior technological shift — if handled responsibly. AGI Could Transform Society Faster Than Any Previous Revolution Speaking at the India AI Impact Summit 2026, Hassabis said AGI may trigger one of the most consequential eras in human history, comparing its potential impact to the discovery of fire and the invention of electrici
watch now VIDEO 5:29 05:29 Trump accounts will be funded in July. Many questions are still unanswered Markets and Politics Digital Original Video On the heels of a massive publicity push, more than 1 million people have signed up for Trump accounts , according to a post by the White House on X — well ahead of the July launch date. The " free money " is likely a major incentive. The federal governm...
watch now VIDEO 5:29 05:29 Trump accounts will be funded in July. Many questions are still unanswered Markets and Politics Digital Original Video On the heels of a massive publicity push, more than 1 million people have signed up for Trump accounts , according to a post by the White House on X — well ahead of the July launch date. The " free money " is likely a major incentive. The federal government has said it will make a one-time $1,000 contribution into the accounts of all eligible children born on or after Jan. 1, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2028. A growing number of companies have pledged to match the Treasury's deposit for children of employees, and philanthropists in multiple states have committed to seed the accounts of certain qualifying families. "The president has called on business leaders and philanthropists all around the country to get involved in the initiative," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday during a speech at the Economic Club of Dallas. And yet, beyond the initial deposits, plenty of questions remain about how these accounts will be managed and invested. More from Financial Advisor Playbook: Here's a look at other stories affecting the financial advisor business. Bigger SALT cap may 'drive higher refunds,' tax expert says — who benefits Trump accounts could grow to $50,000 or more, president says. Advisors weigh in Housing affordability isn't just hurting buyers: More homeowners are falling behind In an affordability crunch, Gen Z adults lean on their parents for financial help Penalty-free withdrawals from 401(k)s can now pay for long-term care insurance Tax changes Social Security beneficiaries may see based on new laws 53% of investors with a required withdrawal for 2025 still haven't taken it: Fidelity The first step workers should take after a layoff, as job losses soar Politics is now the No. 1 money worry, financial planners say How to maximize Trump's bigger SALT deduction limit for 2025 "There are more unanswered questions than...
Byrdyak/iStock via Getty Images I am not a bear by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, my 2026 Market Outlook was the second most bullish among Seeking Alpha analysts and hinged on the idea we are entering an actual AI bubble. Yet, today I want to challenge my own conviction and ask myself two questions: What would a worst-case bear market scenario look like, both from a fiscal and monetary p...
Byrdyak/iStock via Getty Images I am not a bear by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, my 2026 Market Outlook was the second most bullish among Seeking Alpha analysts and hinged on the idea we are entering an actual AI bubble. Yet, today I want to challenge my own conviction and ask myself two questions: What would a worst-case bear market scenario look like, both from a fiscal and monetary perspective? Are we seeing anything that indicates such a scenario may actually play out? My hope is this thought exercise will be helpful for readers that are uncertain about how to position themselves in view of possible AI disruptions. I will also cover the reasons why I do not deem a bearish case very likely and what I think may happen instead. The fiscal bear case Fiscal policy is a result of political and economic circumstances. And these circumstances are strongly correlated with voters’ sentiment (at least in Western democracies). In this first section, I will explore the idea that a fiscal bear case could look like the following: AI disrupts most white-collar jobs, leaving blue-collar jobs and highly specialized roles (from AI researchers to medical doctors) largely untouched. This breaks the social pacts and fuels social resentment. As a result, governments resort to populist fiscal initiatives such as taxing unrealized capital gains, increasing welfare spending, and limiting progress in AI-related fields. Government spending becomes the only growth story and depresses efficient capital allocations and research and development. Productivity stagnates. Further populist policies, for example state-enforced hiring to private firms, slow down the AI race and innovation in general. In this fiscal bear scenario, equity markets would enter a long-term “crab market,” reflecting a stagnant global economy. In the next sections, I will outline in more detail how this scenario may unfold. AI disrupts the social pact The Netherlands has recently implemented a 36% capital gains ...
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) have very different businesses: Amazon's profits come primarily from cloud computing, while Home Depot's are from home improvement retail. But both are important consumer-focused businesses that are adapting to rapidly shifting business environments. Here's which stock is currently the better buy. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) have very different businesses: Amazon's profits come primarily from cloud computing, while Home Depot's are from home improvement retail. But both are important consumer-focused businesses that are adapting to rapidly shifting business environments. Here's which stock is currently the better buy. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
For the better part of 15 years at law firm Kirkland & Ellis, David Nemecek made a career out of exploiting loose lending agreements to perfect what would become a well-worn dance in the world of distressed corporate debt: Craft a debt overhaul too good for one set of a company’s creditors to pass up while leaving other creditors with scraps and buying precious time for the company’s private equit...
For the better part of 15 years at law firm Kirkland & Ellis, David Nemecek made a career out of exploiting loose lending agreements to perfect what would become a well-worn dance in the world of distressed corporate debt: Craft a debt overhaul too good for one set of a company’s creditors to pass up while leaving other creditors with scraps and buying precious time for the company’s private equity owners to avoid losses. The maneuver made Nemecek a star among private equity firms stuck with hundreds of overleveraged and struggling companies — that is, until his own warnings about creditors’ response to those practices set the stage for his high-profile departure. Nemecek has left for Simpson Thacher & Bartlett , capping weeks of speculation about his future sparked by a web of controversy involving an unprecedented legal move that entangled some of Kirkland’s big-name clients, and where he, right or wrongly, was painted as instigator. His exit means that Kirkland has gained a major adversary in its competition for the biggest and most complex — and profitable — debt restructuring deals, and raises questions about whether the firm will continue with the aggressive strategies he helped pioneer. It all started with the contentious legal action taken late last year by billionaire Patrick Drahi ’s Optimum Communications Inc., formerly known as Altice USA and Kirkland’s then-client. Optimum filed an antitrust lawsuit against its own lenders, a group including major private equity firms like Apollo Capital Management LP , Ares Management LLC , BlackRock Financial Management Inc. They had banded together in a so-called cooperation agreement, which Optimum alleged was an “illegal cartel.” The “cartel” also happened to include some of Kirkland’s most important clients — and who have since sought its dismissal . While Kirkland didn’t formally bring the antitrust suit, many involved nevertheless saw Nemecek’s imprint on it. Optimum had been his client, and he already had an ag...
Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Article Thesis Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) is a growth company that has recently seen its shares come under a lot of pressure. While shares are still far from a bargain, they are cheaper than they were in the past -- potentially making them attractive for investors with a longer-term view that want exposure to the fast-growing cybersecurity market and t...
Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Article Thesis Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) is a growth company that has recently seen its shares come under a lot of pressure. While shares are still far from a bargain, they are cheaper than they were in the past -- potentially making them attractive for investors with a longer-term view that want exposure to the fast-growing cybersecurity market and that do not mind the company's share-based compensation expenses. Past Coverage I have written about Palo Alto Networks here on Seeking Alpha in the past, most recently in November, when I published this article . I was neutral on the stock back then, noting its growth potential but also its relatively high valuation. Shares have pulled back over the last three months, and with Palo Alto Networks having announced its earnings results a couple of days ago, I want to update my views on the company today. What Happened? Palo Alto Networks reported its most recent earnings results, for the company's fiscal second quarter , a couple of days ago. These were the headline results: Palo Alto Networks fiscal Q2 results (Seeking Alpha) We see that the company delivered a double beat versus the analyst consensus estimate, which was, of course, a nice surprise. The revenue beat was pretty minor, at less than 1%, but Palo Alto Networks outperformed the bottom line estimate by around 10%, which is a pretty wide margin. Palo Alto Networks: Recent Results Review The reported revenue growth rate of Palo Alto Networks during its fiscal Q2 was pretty nice in absolute terms, at a little less than 15%, but the growth rate was slightly lower compared to the average over the last couple of quarters -- during the previous three quarters, PANW's reported revenue growth was a little above 15%. While revenue growth deceleration isn't great, it also isn't a disaster, I believe -- it was pretty minor, and the comparison to the previous year's second quarter wasn't easy. Reported revenue growth also only ...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The SaaS-Pocalypse Is Creating Opportunities Atlassian ( TEAM ) has been one of the biggest casualties of what is now called the SaaS-pocalypse , and it is precisely why I decided to look into it. This comes after my recent research on other enterprise software companies, including ServiceNow ( NOW ), Adobe ( ADBE ) and Intuit ( INTU ). In every...
Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The SaaS-Pocalypse Is Creating Opportunities Atlassian ( TEAM ) has been one of the biggest casualties of what is now called the SaaS-pocalypse , and it is precisely why I decided to look into it. This comes after my recent research on other enterprise software companies, including ServiceNow ( NOW ), Adobe ( ADBE ) and Intuit ( INTU ). In every instance, I found very few signs of AI-related disruption by looking at their current financial performance or their guidance for fiscal 2026. This means that the current sell-off is entirely based on future events that have not materialized yet. It is my personal view that the only thing SaaS companies have to do at this point to bounce back is to simply meet their financial guidance. As discussed in my previous article about Intuit, only then may some people realize that they have overreacted by selling indiscriminately every single software stock, irrespective of their strategic position or strategy regarding artificial intelligence. I believe it is a great time to invest in the software industry while keeping in mind that certain business models will indeed be disrupted. There will be winners and losers, and making the difference between the two is key in this environment, as the selling has been pretty much indiscriminate so far. Enterprise Software Relative Performance (Seeking Alpha, David Desjardins) For ServiceNow and Intuit, not only do I believe that AI-related fears are overstated, but I actually believe that the growth of artificial intelligence will be a net benefit to their business model. In my view, disruption risks may be more elevated in Adobe's case, although this is more than compensated by a double-digit free cash flow yield combined with double-digit top-line growth. Now, if we come back to Atlassian, one of the key takeaways from my research is the fact that remaining performance obligation (RPO) growth is literally accelerating while the market is ...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Horizon Technology Finance ( HRZN ) looks attractively inexpensive, but in reality it is cheap for a reason. Its venture-focused lending model worked in the zero-rate era, when there was a lot of capital in the market, and funders could exit easily. That environment no longer exists. HRZN’s earnings and growth have gone down. The stock trades at ro...
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Horizon Technology Finance ( HRZN ) looks attractively inexpensive, but in reality it is cheap for a reason. Its venture-focused lending model worked in the zero-rate era, when there was a lot of capital in the market, and funders could exit easily. That environment no longer exists. HRZN’s earnings and growth have gone down. The stock trades at roughly 0.9x book, and about 5–6x earnings. The stress is visible in the share price, which is down 30%. It is now pursuing a merger in an effort to stabilize scale and costs. However, I am skeptical that this will be enough. HRZN’s 20% yield may look attractive, but it reflects elevated structural risk rather than opportunity. The Model That Broke For HRZN HRZN is a BDC (a business development company) that does venture lending, offering structured debt to VC-backed technology and life sciences companies. HRZN does this at an earlier stage than traditional middle-market BDCs. These underwrite recurring cash flow. HRZN underwrites growth and the option to exit quickly. Here, repayment does not often come from cash flow but from follow-on equity raises, acquisitions, or public offerings. There was abundant capital during the pre-2022 zero-rate period, and refinancing came easily. At that time, HRZN grew its portfolio and earnings. The past decade’s data shows this growth - revenue compounded 12.73% annually, EBIT grew at 15.74%. However, as rates rose and IPO markets faltered in 2022, venture lending as a whole suffered, and HRZN was severely impacted. In the recent past, revenue is down 5.41% YoY, net income margin is negative at -24.19%, and ROE is down 7.27%. Projections are even more dire, with forward EPS projections down 19.51%. This is not short term volatility. The problem is more structural, and reflects a lending model exposed to a tighter capital environment that does not show any indication of being temporary. Dividend Pressure, Coverage, And Balance Sheet Strain H...
No Laughing Matter: John Cleese Declares "I'm Afraid They Are Going To Have To Arrest Me" Authored by Jonathan Turley, In the classic movie comedy, A Fish Called Wanda , John Cleese lamented, “do you have any idea what it’s like being English? Being so correct all the time, being so stifled by this dread of, of doing the wrong thing.” Now 86, Cleese has a more pressing concern about being English:...
No Laughing Matter: John Cleese Declares "I'm Afraid They Are Going To Have To Arrest Me" Authored by Jonathan Turley, In the classic movie comedy, A Fish Called Wanda , John Cleese lamented, “do you have any idea what it’s like being English? Being so correct all the time, being so stifled by this dread of, of doing the wrong thing.” Now 86, Cleese has a more pressing concern about being English: whether his exercise of free speech will make him a criminal in his own country. In a recent interview, Cleese observed that the government’s new speech standards would classify many citizens, including himself, as presumptive criminals for criticizing certain policies. He observed that: ”As I am an Islamosceptic, I’m now worried that the Labour government may categorise me as a terrorist…” The government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has continued its headlong plunge into the criminalization of speech. The guidelines include a section on cultural nationalism, stating that such views are now the subject of government crackdowns. To even argue that Western culture is under threat from mass migration or a lack of integration by certain groups is being treated as a dangerous ideology. Cleese responded by saying, “I’m clearly a terrorist, so I’m afraid they are going to have to arrest me.” The tragedy is that this is no wicked Monty Python joke. Cleese has every reason to be concerned. As I discuss in Rage and the Republic, the United Kingdom has eviscerated free speech in the name of social cohesion and order. For years, I have been writing about the decline of free speech in the United Kingdom and the steady stream of arrests. A man was convicted of sending a tweet while drunk, referring to dead soldiers . Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with ...
Rick_Jo/iStock via Getty Images I initiate coverage on Planet Labs ( PL ) with a strong buy rating, citing the recent growth in RPO and the potential of a strong catalyst in H2 this year from a possible 66% YOY hike in the U.S. defense budget to $1.5T. From a fundamentals perspective, I like the growth story. Last quarter, the defense and intelligence segment represented 61% of total revenue, grow...
Rick_Jo/iStock via Getty Images I initiate coverage on Planet Labs ( PL ) with a strong buy rating, citing the recent growth in RPO and the potential of a strong catalyst in H2 this year from a possible 66% YOY hike in the U.S. defense budget to $1.5T. From a fundamentals perspective, I like the growth story. Last quarter, the defense and intelligence segment represented 61% of total revenue, growing at 73% YOY. That said, civil government was basically flat (+1.5%), and commercial went backwards (-7.8%). So, the growth story is largely exposed to one segment: defense and intelligence. This revenue concentration is exactly why I feel optimistic about a catalyst this year: Trump’s proposed (still not enacted) FY27 U.S. defense budget of $1.5T (vs. $901B in FY26). If even a slice of the incremental dollars goes toward ISR/GEOINT or analytics, I think Planet Labs could surprise the Street, much like it did in Q3. I own the stock, with a 12-month timeframe in mind. That said, I see some risks, and one of them is related to SpaceX, even though it's not a direct competitor. I will explain why in the risk section. The Defense and Intelligence Segment First, let's put this segment into perspective. In the last quarter, defense and intelligence accounted for 61% of total revenue. The growth rate of this segment was 73% YOY vs. 1.5% in civil government or -7.8% in commercial. Take a look at the chart below to see the sequential growth in this segment. Author's Compilation So, what's driving the outperformance? The company has three revenue streams in this segment: data subscriptions, solutions, and satellite services. Naturally, the company doesn't disclose the contribution of each revenue stream; however, based on the comment below from CFO Ashley Whitfield Johnson regarding recurring ACV (Annual Contract Value), I think data subscriptions may be high on the list: Recurring ACV was 97% of our end-of-period ACV book of business, reflecting our continued focus on selling subsc...
Investing legend Warren Buffett has said many times over that the average retirement saver can do quite well putting their money into an S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) and letting it grow over time. And if you're looking for a way to supercharge your retirement savings , you may be thinking of following that advice. If you're wondering whether it's possible to retire on S&P 500 ETFs alone, the...
Investing legend Warren Buffett has said many times over that the average retirement saver can do quite well putting their money into an S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) and letting it grow over time. And if you're looking for a way to supercharge your retirement savings , you may be thinking of following that advice. If you're wondering whether it's possible to retire on S&P 500 ETFs alone, the answer is, sure. But does that make it the right approach for you? It depends on your goals. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I was on the Investing Experts Podcast this week, and, as with any time a group of young analysts meet, we talked about Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA ). Not only is it still the world's largest firm after the tech sector corrected this year, although it's now below the $5T market cap mark. It had a steep drawdown at the beginning of the month, but has snapped...
BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I was on the Investing Experts Podcast this week, and, as with any time a group of young analysts meet, we talked about Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA ). Not only is it still the world's largest firm after the tech sector corrected this year, although it's now below the $5T market cap mark. It had a steep drawdown at the beginning of the month, but has snapped back and is now flat YTD. Data by YCharts My record on NVDA is short, as I mostly covered it through funds that give exposure to NVDA like the YieldMax NVDY ETF, having started coverage of the stock itself in July. I've maintained a buy rating through today. It's up nearly 10% since I first recommended it, but so is the S&P 500. Here's my rating history: Seeking Alpha The Pressure of High Expectations In that conversation, there were a couple of things said that I think are worth bringing up in an article directly on Nvidia, especially considering that they have their earnings report next week, on the 25th. I'll focus on just one here. My colleague Julia Ostian said on the podcast about Nvidia's earnings: The market looks nervous and I mean the market looks excited but worried at the same time...I just broke down Nvidia's earnings today, I wrote the preview ... It really looks like it doesn't matter what Nvidia will do. The market will not be as happy because it looks to me that the company so many times has beaten the expectations that basically right now the expectations are that everything will be better than expected. But the problem is that this phrase can stretch basically limitless, right? What is better than expected? ...if Nvidia will deliver instead of $65 billion, $70 billion, I'm not sure the market will be very happy because Nvidia usually beats like three to four billion. ...I really think the stock can go lower on the earnings even with the [beat]. As I began to write this article, my take on NVDA earnings, I kept coming back to that line, that expectations ...
Getty Images Back in July, 2024, I wrote my first bearish piece on Blue Owl Capital ( OBDC ), which at that time caused a lot of debate because the consensus was overwhelmingly bullish and the key metrics like the dividend coverage and non-accruals were robust. My issue was the disconnect between relatively rich P/NAV and forthcoming headwinds in the form of lower base rates and spread-compression...
Getty Images Back in July, 2024, I wrote my first bearish piece on Blue Owl Capital ( OBDC ), which at that time caused a lot of debate because the consensus was overwhelmingly bullish and the key metrics like the dividend coverage and non-accruals were robust. My issue was the disconnect between relatively rich P/NAV and forthcoming headwinds in the form of lower base rates and spread-compression. This is how OBDC's share price has evolved since the publication of that piece: YCharts In October, 2025, I took a step further by circulating another bearish case after OBDC had already dropped into 20% discount territory. This time I indicated that the dividend will likely fall under the chopping block because of the various headwinds and absolutely no margin of safety in the books. Of course, the article and my messages faced a serious resistance from OBDC bulls, just as in my original bear case. However, it seems that I was right again, with OBDC both registering further share price declines and underperforming the BDC sector ( BIZD ): YCharts Now, what I have decided to do after dissecting the recently published Q4 earnings data is to claim victory on my contrarian bear thesis and switch the rating to buy. Given the recent turbulence around OBDC's parent, Blue Owl Capital ( OWL ) and its sister BDC - OBDC II - I have no doubt that this time there will be just as many bears roaring against any positive comments on OBDC as before, when I argued that the BDC is overpriced and the dividend cut question is not about "if" but "when". Let's dive in. Thesis review I will start with the basics. Based on the recent NAV per share statistic, OBDC trades at a P/NAV of 0.77x. Meanwhile, the sector average stands at 0.81x. It might seem like an immaterial gap, but if we adjust for 10+ BDCs, which trade at 40% and larger discounts, the difference between OBDC and high-quality BDCs would widen significantly. And yes, we can still label OBDC a high-quality BDC, just as, say, Kayne And...