The dust and debris of the US-Israeli war on Iran have yet to settle, but its strategic shock waves have reached East Asia. From Tokyo to Taipei, a reassessment is under way. The conflict, intended to project American resolve, has been a brutal stress test for the US-led order – with catastrophic results for Washington’s credibility. Far from cementing its primacy, America’s misadventure has revea...
The dust and debris of the US-Israeli war on Iran have yet to settle, but its strategic shock waves have reached East Asia. From Tokyo to Taipei, a reassessment is under way. The conflict, intended to project American resolve, has been a brutal stress test for the US-led order – with catastrophic results for Washington’s credibility. Far from cementing its primacy, America’s misadventure has revealed a superpower that is overstretched, vulnerable and seen as an unreliable partner. This erosion...
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg arrives outside court to take the stand at trial in a key test case accusing Meta and Google's YouTube of harming kids' mental health through addictive platforms, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., Feb. 18, 2026. Mike Blake | Reuters For the last three decades, internet giants have been able to avoid legal exposure for content on their platforms, thanks to a law t...
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg arrives outside court to take the stand at trial in a key test case accusing Meta and Google's YouTube of harming kids' mental health through addictive platforms, in Los Angeles, California, U.S., Feb. 18, 2026. Mike Blake | Reuters For the last three decades, internet giants have been able to avoid legal exposure for content on their platforms, thanks to a law that differentiates the companies from online publishers. But those safeguards appear to be weakening. Meta and Google , which dominate the U.S. digital ad market, find themselves as defendants in a host of lawsuits that collectively serve to undermine the long-held notion that they have legal protection for what surfaces on their sites, apps and services. Companies like TikTok and Snap are in the same predicament. The unifying aspect of the recent cases is that they're crafted to circumvent Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which Congress passed in 1996 and President Bill Clinton signed into law. Established in the early days of the internet, the law protects websites from being sued over content posted by their users, and allows them to act as moderators without being held liable for what stays up. Last week, a jury in New Mexico found Meta liable in a case involving child safety, while jurors in Los Angeles held the Facebook parent and Google's YouTube negligent in a personal injury trial. Days after those verdicts were revealed, victims of the notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein filed a class action lawsuit against Google and the Trump administration over allegations related to the wrongful disclosure of personal information. In that complaint, the plaintiffs argue that Google's AI Mode, which serves up AI-powered summaries and links, is "not a neutral search index," a clear effort to make the case that Google isn't just a platform sitting between users and the information they seek. "The plaintiffs' bar is winning the war against section 230 through syst...
rommma/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Beyond Saving "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" – Warren Buffett This is one of Buffett's more famous quotes, which is excellent investment advice that the vast majority of investors will fail to implement. The problem is that fear often exists for very good reasons. As I write this, the market is fearful: Source...
rommma/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Beyond Saving "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" – Warren Buffett This is one of Buffett's more famous quotes, which is excellent investment advice that the vast majority of investors will fail to implement. The problem is that fear often exists for very good reasons. As I write this, the market is fearful: Source Chart It is fearful for several good reasons. The escalation of war in Iran, the risk to the global oil supply, and the fear of recession are all valid and reasonable fears. Combine that with large-cap stocks trading at very high valuations, and it is reasonable to believe that there is a risk of a crash severe enough for us to name it. Source Yardeni Today, let's take a look at two holdings that I'm buying while the market gets fearful. Pick #1: AGNC – Yield 14.4% AGNC Investment Corporation ( AGNC ) is a mortgage REIT that focuses on agency MBS, which are mortgage-backed securities where Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guarantees the mortgages. If a borrower defaults, the agencies buy back the mortgages at par. AGNC uses leverage, and it profits from the difference between its assets and its cost of funds. The path to cash flow is clearly laid out on this slide: Source AGNC Q4 2025 Presentation You have the average asset yield, which is what AGNC collects. It was at 4.91% at the end of Q4. Then you have the cost of funds, which is 3.10%. That's what AGNC is paying in interest. Take the asset yield 4.91% minus the cost of funds of 3.10%, and you get the net interest spread of 1.81%. The higher the net interest spread, the more money AGNC is making on its investments. Recently, we saw AGNC's price come down. This is likely because AGNC's book value has declined. Here is the 5.5% coupon agency MBS price: Source Chart This is in response to U.S. Treasury rates rising as the market starts to fear inflation being driven by oil prices. For AGNC's book value, this is a negative becaus...
SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump and no recession, s...
SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump and no recession, so traders got comfortable. Then 2008 happened. Today, with Brent crude having spiked over 60% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, the same dangerous reasoning is circulating again. That narrative is that this “event” is manageable and will resolve quickly. If that is the case, then the economy will absorb it. That may indeed be the case. However, the conditions that determine whether an oil shock becomes a full recession are specific, quantifiable, and worth examining with clear eyes. That is what this analysis does. Not All Oil Shocks Are The Same The post-World War II era has produced a half-dozen oil price crises significant enough to reshape the global economy. They share a surface-level similarity: prices spike, headlines scream, and politicians rage. However, beyond those commonalities, they diverge dramatically in their underlying causes and economic consequences. (Read Energy Price as an Economic Indicator ) The 1973 OPEC Embargo stands alone as the archetype. OAPEC nations cut production and placed a deliberate embargo on the United States in response to U.S. support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War. In roughly 4 months, the price of crude oil rose from $3 per barrel to nearly $12 globally, a 300% surge. The U.S. economy, already running hot with inflation at 3.4%, could not absorb the blow. GDP contracted 0.5% in 1974. Unemployment climbed from 4.6% to 9% by May 1975. The Fed raised its benchmark rate from 5.75% in 1972 to 12% by 1974 and still could not contain prices. The result was stagflation: high inflation (above 9%), high unem...
When loved ones pass away, their unspent retirement savings don't disappear. They go to whomever the benefactors chose as beneficiaries -- often their spouse or children, but sometimes other family members or friends, too. If you recently inherited an IRA, you might be tempted to put all that money to good use right away. But there's a hidden downside to doing that. image source: Getty Images. Con...
When loved ones pass away, their unspent retirement savings don't disappear. They go to whomever the benefactors chose as beneficiaries -- often their spouse or children, but sometimes other family members or friends, too. If you recently inherited an IRA, you might be tempted to put all that money to good use right away. But there's a hidden downside to doing that. image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
Ma Xingrui. Photo: IC Photo A high-ranking member of China’s ruling Communist Party and former aerospace executive has been placed under investigation for severe corruption, marking the downfall of another elite political figure. Ma Xingrui, a member of the elite 24-seat Politburo and deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, is suspected of severe violations of party discipline and sta...
Ma Xingrui. Photo: IC Photo A high-ranking member of China’s ruling Communist Party and former aerospace executive has been placed under investigation for severe corruption, marking the downfall of another elite political figure. Ma Xingrui, a member of the elite 24-seat Politburo and deputy head of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, is suspected of severe violations of party discipline and state law, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Friday. He has been placed under disciplinary review and supervisory investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission.
Paul Sankey, president at Sankey Research, explains the factors causing physical stress in the global oil market and breaks down the difference in pricing between oil futures and physical cargo available for delivery. (Source: Bloomberg)
Paul Sankey, president at Sankey Research, explains the factors causing physical stress in the global oil market and breaks down the difference in pricing between oil futures and physical cargo available for delivery. (Source: Bloomberg)
Sandwish/iStock via Getty Images By Mike Larson Like Tom Hanks’ character at the end of the movie Cast Away , the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) is at a key fork in the road. Whether it takes the bullish or bearish path is critical. The stock market is closed for the Good Friday holiday, so it’s a good time to reflect on the bigger picture. My MoneyShow Chart of the Day shows SPY over a nin...
Sandwish/iStock via Getty Images By Mike Larson Like Tom Hanks’ character at the end of the movie Cast Away , the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) is at a key fork in the road. Whether it takes the bullish or bearish path is critical. The stock market is closed for the Good Friday holiday, so it’s a good time to reflect on the bigger picture. My MoneyShow Chart of the Day shows SPY over a nine-month time frame, along with a trio of exponential moving averages. I also included MACD and RSI indicators. (Source: StockCharts) You can see the recent breakdown under the 200-day EMA on high volume. It was followed by a high-volume reversal in the $630s... and a test of the underside of the 200-day. The shorter-term 20-day EMA also broke through the 200-day, while the 50-day EMA has started to roll over. Another thing worth noting: RSI was steadily declining for some time, even as price kept climbing through early 2026. That “fits” with the broader narrative in place before the Middle East war broke out - namely, that tech and AI stocks were losing steam , investors were rotating into new leaders , and volatility was on the rise in all kinds of places, including metals . The bulls will argue this is like the Liberation Day selloff in 2025. If President Trump backs down and some kind of Iran deal gets worked out, we’ll be off to the races again. The bears will counter that markets have been weakening behind the scenes for a while. Not to mention that last year’s tariff threats weren’t accompanied by $100+ oil and $4+ gasoline. All I can say with certainty is that we’re at a critical market juncture. If SPY takes a “wrong” turn, it might be time to insure your portfolio against grimmer outcomes. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. Originally published on MoneyShow.com
Big Event Media/Getty Images Entertainment Company Overview & Financial Health Tempus AI, as affirmed in the name, is a diagnostics and data company that utilizes as a vast patient database to inform therapy selection and treatment decisions for physicians. The Company's Tempus Platform is a technology platform meant to free healthcare data from healthcare provider silos across the US. Despite the...
Big Event Media/Getty Images Entertainment Company Overview & Financial Health Tempus AI, as affirmed in the name, is a diagnostics and data company that utilizes as a vast patient database to inform therapy selection and treatment decisions for physicians. The Company's Tempus Platform is a technology platform meant to free healthcare data from healthcare provider silos across the US. Despite the majority of its revenue coming from diagnostics, Tempus' business is underpinned by its data and applications segment that includes products like Insights, Trials, Next and Algos. Strong Q4 2025 Operating Results 2025 proved to be a transformative year for Tempus AI. Full-year reported revenue was ~$1.3B, driven by growth in Diagnostics revenues, experiencing 121.6% YoY growth in Q4 2025. This growth was largely driven by re-acceleration of growth in the Oncology business and the addition of Ambry Genetics, a hereditary testing company. Data and Applications revenues in Q4 2025 were $100.4 million, representing 25.1% YoY growth. However, an important factor to note was the expiration of the Company's warrant with AstraZeneca during the quarter. Excluding this factor, the true YoY growth rate was 56.9%. The impressive growth across Tempus AI's operating segments resulted in Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $12.9M, compared to -$7.8M in Q4 2024. The difference in operating expenses from GAAP to non-GAAP largely came from accelerated R&D expenses that were normalized in the adjusted EBITDA bridge. This promising cash flow generation, while an adjusted figure, marks a milestone for Tempus AI, which has generated large losses in previous years as it ramped up its data acquisition strategy. AI Model at Critical Mass While I cannot provide the report for copyright reasons, William Blair analysts sat down with the CEO of Tempus AI to discuss the data moat that underpins the Company's value proposition for investors. According to the report, the 450+ petabytes (1 petabyte = 1,00...