ismagilov/iStock via Getty Images Oil Shocks Oil shocks hitting economies with weak demand and strained balance sheets are especially damaging. Firms cannot fully pass on rising costs, so margins shrink, layoffs increase, and investment falls. Tightening monetary and credit conditions would cause inflation to fade faster but job losses, failures, and fragile household finances to be much worse. Th...
ismagilov/iStock via Getty Images Oil Shocks Oil shocks hitting economies with weak demand and strained balance sheets are especially damaging. Firms cannot fully pass on rising costs, so margins shrink, layoffs increase, and investment falls. Tightening monetary and credit conditions would cause inflation to fade faster but job losses, failures, and fragile household finances to be much worse. The word “stagflation” is often used to capture the economic consequences of an oil shock, mainly because it gained prominence in the 1970s and serves as a convenient label for the rare mix of inflation and slowing growth. Yet this label misleads, since it implies economic stagnation rather than the actual reduction in real activity that follows oil shocks. More precise terms include “supply-side recession” or “cost-push recession,” which shift the aggregate supply curve inward (Chart 1, from AS 0 to AS 1 ), lowering output (real GDP) and increasing prices (P). The Russian invasion of Ukraine did not meet this criterion, since, simultaneously, the aggregate demand (AD) curve was being shifted outward in response massive domestic and global demand stimulants in response to COVID. Without the stimulus, the AD curve remains stationary, as depicted in Chart 1. When an economy is already under strain, oil shocks can accelerate downturns more quickly than most typical business cycle lags (Table 1). For instance, just a month after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the U.S. entered a recession lasting into late 1974. The 1979 Iranian Revolution caused a surge in oil prices, and within eleven months, the U.S. entered the 1980 recession, the first of two in three years. In 2007, oil production disruptions in Nigeria and Venezuela, along with rapid Chinese growth, drove prices up, and within five months, the U.S. was in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis. In each scenario, higher oil prices acted as a catalyst for major economic problems already stirring. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in Aug...
Many institutional investors are prioritizing Exxon Mobil Corporation and Chevron Corporation as these firms capture gains from high global oil prices.
Many institutional investors are prioritizing Exxon Mobil Corporation and Chevron Corporation as these firms capture gains from high global oil prices.
undefined China’s crude oil imports edged down slightly in March, even as conflict-driven supply disruptions in the Middle East triggered a record monthly drop in output from major producers, as reduced refinery activity at home damped import demand. China imported 49.98 million metric tons of crude last month, or about 11.82 million barrels a day, down 2.8% from a year earlier, according to data ...
undefined China’s crude oil imports edged down slightly in March, even as conflict-driven supply disruptions in the Middle East triggered a record monthly drop in output from major producers, as reduced refinery activity at home damped import demand. China imported 49.98 million metric tons of crude last month, or about 11.82 million barrels a day, down 2.8% from a year earlier, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday. China’s Crude Oil Imports Edge Lower in March The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refineries was 85.59% in March, down from 91.43% in February, OPEC data showed.
A leaked plan to grant the US military sweeping overflight access to Indonesia’s airspace has triggered a domestic backlash over concerns that Jakarta is “colluding with the aggressor” amid Washington’s war on Iran. Analysts say the defence document, first reported by New Delhi-based newspaper the Sunday Guardian, raises concerns that President Prabowo Subianto may be trading away Indonesia’s stra...
A leaked plan to grant the US military sweeping overflight access to Indonesia’s airspace has triggered a domestic backlash over concerns that Jakarta is “colluding with the aggressor” amid Washington’s war on Iran. Analysts say the defence document, first reported by New Delhi-based newspaper the Sunday Guardian, raises concerns that President Prabowo Subianto may be trading away Indonesia’s strategic independence. The proposal, which reportedly emerged following a meeting in February between...
Janina Steinmetz/DigitalVision via Getty Images By Michael Grant A Fragile Yet Decisive Truce The fortnight since our April 1st commentary has delivered on the critical juncture we identified for the Iranian conflict: a two-week ceasefire was announced, brokered through Pakistani mediation. Equity markets have responded with the relief that the balance of probabilities warranted because both parti...
Janina Steinmetz/DigitalVision via Getty Images By Michael Grant A Fragile Yet Decisive Truce The fortnight since our April 1st commentary has delivered on the critical juncture we identified for the Iranian conflict: a two-week ceasefire was announced, brokered through Pakistani mediation. Equity markets have responded with the relief that the balance of probabilities warranted because both parties are now prioritizing a political solution. For US equities, the buy signal is more tactical, less strategic: none of this alters the broader framework for 2026. This ceasefire deserves careful interpretation. The Trump administration issued an ultimatum with a precise deadline and began acting on it eight hours early—striking petrochemical sites, bridges and rail lines before the clock expired. For the first time in the long history of US ultimatums to Tehran, the threat was demonstrably credible. Iran deployed civilians and social media figures to shield installations. What followed was not negotiation but controlled escalatory descent—coercion, not diplomacy. For the Western media, this confrontation has produced a draw, not a victory, and draws can be unstable. Trump's problem is that military force could not be applied without genuine economic disruption. He may have miscalculated 1 that Iran could be brought to heel while domestic opinion remained quiescent. Instead, much of the establishment (and in Europe especially) has treated the conflict as an instrument to damage Trump 2 rather than a legitimate security operation. Neutral reporting has proved impossible. The information environment is as contested as the military one. Iran published its 10-point negotiating position in Persian in terms notably different from the English version circulated to international audiences—and the opposition media translated their preferred version. This episode amplifies the trans-Atlantic divergence already visible before the conflict and deepens fissures within Europe. And yet, a...
The Nasdaq Composite index was under pressure in the first three months of 2026, losing 7% of its value before staging a comeback in April. The index's decline is primarily due to external factors like the war in the Middle East, which has sent shock waves through the global economy. Rising oil prices and the increasing odds of a U.S. recession weighed on the index's performance in Q1 this year. H...
The Nasdaq Composite index was under pressure in the first three months of 2026, losing 7% of its value before staging a comeback in April. The index's decline is primarily due to external factors like the war in the Middle East, which has sent shock waves through the global economy. Rising oil prices and the increasing odds of a U.S. recession weighed on the index's performance in Q1 this year. However, recent developments, such as the talks between the U.S. and Iran to resolve the conflict, have injected life into the Nasdaq Composite, which is now up by about 1% year-to-date as of this writing. Continue reading
France’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.7% in March 2026 from 0.9% in February, meeting estimates and marking its highest level since January 2025. The increase was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in energy prices, particularly petroleum products such as diesel, petrol, and liquid fuels, reflecting the impact of the war in Iran. Services inflation also edged up to 1.7% from 1.6%, supported by ...
France’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.7% in March 2026 from 0.9% in February, meeting estimates and marking its highest level since January 2025. The increase was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in energy prices, particularly petroleum products such as diesel, petrol, and liquid fuels, reflecting the impact of the war in Iran. Services inflation also edged up to 1.7% from 1.6%, supported by a recovery in transport and communication costs, while tobacco prices rose faster. In contrast, food inflation eased to 1.8% from 2.0%, while prices of manufactured goods fell more sharply. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.0% in March, accelerating from 0.6% More on France U.S. Tariffs: A New Trade War? EWQ: Falling Real Rates Delayed The Bear Case, But 2026 May Not ECB seeks greater control in setting eurozone bank capital buffers European markets rebound on renewed hopes of Iran-U.S. talks Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on iShares MSCI France ETF
Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." (Source: Bloomberg)
Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." (Source: Bloomberg)
The global smartphone market declined in Q1 for the first time since 2023, according to IDC , as a memory chip shortage and the Iran war push up costs and weigh on demand. Apple ( AAPL ) and Samsung Electronics ( SSNLF ) were the only top-five brands to post growth, each increasing shipments by more than 3%, even as the overall market fell 4.1%. Rivals from Oppo to Xiaomi ( XIACY ) ( XIACF ) saw s...
The global smartphone market declined in Q1 for the first time since 2023, according to IDC , as a memory chip shortage and the Iran war push up costs and weigh on demand. Apple ( AAPL ) and Samsung Electronics ( SSNLF ) were the only top-five brands to post growth, each increasing shipments by more than 3%, even as the overall market fell 4.1%. Rivals from Oppo to Xiaomi ( XIACY ) ( XIACF ) saw shipments fall this year amid increased component and logistical costs. “We expect the first quarter slowdown to be a mild precursor for what lies ahead in 2026,” IDC analysts led by Nabila Popal said. “In several emerging markets, prices have risen by as much as 40–50%, significantly weighing on demand.” Apple ( AAPL ) saw strong momentum in China, with its iPhone 17 series driving roughly 30% growth in the world’s largest smartphone market. Shenzhen-based Huawei Technologies and Honor Device also posted shipment gains, with Honor’s overseas expansion helping deliver a 24% year-over-year increase, IDC said. Still, manufacturers face mounting pressure from a memory chip crunch expected to persist until the second half of 2027, forcing companies to adjust product lineups and pricing strategies. Separate data from Counterpoint Research released last week also showed a 6% drop in Q1 shipments, though it ranked Apple ( AAPL ) ahead of Samsung ( SSNLF ) in market share. Both IDC and Counterpoint pointed to rising memory costs as the primary driver of the slowdown. Beyond rising component and material costs, smartphone makers are also facing higher shipping expenses due to the Middle East conflict, prompting many to rethink spending priorities, IDC’s Popal said. More on Apple, Samsung Electronics Why Apple Still Wins Here Apple Q2 Earnings Preview: Robust iPhone Demand Should Pay Off Now Apple: The Infrastructure Play On Local AI Adoption Samsung SDS shares surge 20% on KKR partnership and $820M bond purchase announcement Samsung hikes prices on smartphones and tablets as Apple ho...
jetcityimage Stellantis ( STLA ) reported an estimated 12% Y/Y increase in global vehicle shipments for the first quarter of 2026, reaching around 1.36M units. Region-wise, North America shipments rose about 17% Y/Y, while Enlarged Europe posted a 12% increase. Shipments also increased 11% in Middle East & Africa, 4% in South America and 15% in Asia Pacific. North America shipments rose by about 5...
jetcityimage Stellantis ( STLA ) reported an estimated 12% Y/Y increase in global vehicle shipments for the first quarter of 2026, reaching around 1.36M units. Region-wise, North America shipments rose about 17% Y/Y, while Enlarged Europe posted a 12% increase. Shipments also increased 11% in Middle East & Africa, 4% in South America and 15% in Asia Pacific. North America shipments rose by about 54,000 units, driven by strong demand for models including the Ram 1500 HEMI V8, refreshed Jeep Grand Wagoneer and the all-new Jeep Cherokee. In Europe, p assenger car volume growth was driven by new launches. Fiat, Opel/Vauxhall and Citroën brands were supported by Smart Car platform models such as the Citroën C3, C3 Aircross, Opel/Vauxhall Frontera and Fiat Grande Panda. More on Stellantis Stellantis: Early Signs Of Turnaround With Product Momentum And Regulatory Relief Stellantis Deserves An Upgrade Due To Early Signs Of A Rebound Stellantis N.V. (STLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Amazon expands its auto business by adding mainstream brands Stellantis weighs China's Leapmotor tech for future Opel models - report