IURII KRASILNIKOV/iStock via Getty Images Fixed Income Market Review The fourth quarter of 2025 maintained the trend of significant shifts in macroeconomic, geopolitical, fundamental, and supply-demand dynamics seen in the third quarter. Markets continued to rebound from post-“Liberation Day” lows as legal challenges, implementation delays, and immediate economic impacts remained muted. While tari...
IURII KRASILNIKOV/iStock via Getty Images Fixed Income Market Review The fourth quarter of 2025 maintained the trend of significant shifts in macroeconomic, geopolitical, fundamental, and supply-demand dynamics seen in the third quarter. Markets continued to rebound from post-“Liberation Day” lows as legal challenges, implementation delays, and immediate economic impacts remained muted. While tariffs and other policy outcomes are still pending, we should see some resolution from the Supreme Court in the coming months. However, financial markets remained confident in a solid economy, rangebound inflation, and early signs of easing geopolitical risks. U.S. economic data continued to signal resilience despite a U.S. government shutdown that delayed or cancelled key releases. Once resolved, the post-shutdown data confirmed that certain trends remained intact: positive growth, contained inflation, and unemployment that held near historically low levels despite some downside surprises. This allowed the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume easing, cutting rates by 25 basis points ('bps') at both the October and December Federal Open Market Committee ('FOMC') meetings. The Fed has acknowledged that while elements of its mandate are in conflict, it has chosen to focus on protecting the labor market in the near term. Global monetary policy remains desynchronized, with divergences among the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Geopolitical developments were mixed: volatility re-emerged in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, while the Middle East saw some signs of progress. China's military exercises late in the quarter around Taiwan were a reminder that tensions remain unresolved. The ongoing market rebound drove broadly positive financial performance for 4Q. Fixed income sectors posted gains as front-end interest rates declined, and most spread sectors outperformed U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. Treasury curve steepened, with the 2-year yield down by 13 bps, the 5-year y...