Christa Boaz/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Mortgage rates spiked as the conflict in Iran escalated, but long-term borrowing costs have eased recently . The current 6.31% rate is about 0.6 percentage points below year-ago levels. That should bode well for homebuilders. Indeed, the Invesco Building & Construction ETF ( PKB ) has outperformed in the last 12 months. I had a buy rating on PKB back...
Christa Boaz/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images Mortgage rates spiked as the conflict in Iran escalated, but long-term borrowing costs have eased recently . The current 6.31% rate is about 0.6 percentage points below year-ago levels. That should bode well for homebuilders. Indeed, the Invesco Building & Construction ETF ( PKB ) has outperformed in the last 12 months. I had a buy rating on PKB back in November of 2024 . Shares are up 26% since then, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 8 percentage points. Today, with a higher valuation and decent technicals, I’m downgrading PKB to a hold. Consumer headwinds remain, while structural forces may keep mortgage rates lofty. Mortgage Rates Dip Back Toward 6.3% Mortgage News Daily PKB Leading YoY Stockcharts.com According to the issuer , PKB is based on the Dynamic Building & Construction Intellidex Index, which uses price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action, and value in its screening process. The index comprises securities of 30 US building and construction companies. These are firms primarily engaged in providing construction and related engineering services for building and remodeling residential properties, commercial or industrial buildings, or large-scale infrastructure projects, such as highways, tunnels, bridges, dams, power lines, and airports. PKB remains a small ETF, with just $439 million in assets under management as of April 14, 2026. That’s up just marginally since my previous analysis, despite the positive total return over the past 18 months. Its annual expense ratio is moderate at 57 basis points, while the trailing 12-month dividend yield is low at just 0.14%, about a full percentage point below that of the S&P 500. Share-price momentum is very strong right now, earning the product a pristine A+ ETF Grade in that category by Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system. I’ll call out later, however, that PKB remains below its record high from earlier this year. In terms of risk , this c...
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick discusses his perspectives on current market conditions and financial sector developments, including his concerns about "imported" inflation from the war in Iran and the recent concerns about the private credit market. He speaks with Lisa Abramowicz on "Bloomberg Open Interest." (Source: Bloomberg)
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick discusses his perspectives on current market conditions and financial sector developments, including his concerns about "imported" inflation from the war in Iran and the recent concerns about the private credit market. He speaks with Lisa Abramowicz on "Bloomberg Open Interest." (Source: Bloomberg)
The war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of the world's oil supply, thus producing what the International Energy Agency has deemed the "largest disruption in history" of globl oil supply. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) , Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) , and most other major cryptocurrencies are highly exposed to that supply shock ...
The war between the U.S. and Israel and Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of the world's oil supply, thus producing what the International Energy Agency has deemed the "largest disruption in history" of globl oil supply. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) , Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) , and most other major cryptocurrencies are highly exposed to that supply shock over the medium term despite their decent performance throughout the conflict so far. The connection between oil and crypto is via liquidity, which is the quantity of investable capital in the global financial system. Andm if prior energy shocks are any indication, there will be big shifts in liquidity across the system soon, so it's a good idea to get a basic understanding of how it affects the cryptoassets you own. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
A big concern for many investors heading into this year was the potential for a market crash. With high valuations and economic uncertainty weighing on the market, the conditions may have appeared to be ripe for a significant downturn, especially given how hot the S&P 500 has been in recent years; it has generated above-average returns since 2023. While the S&P 500 has been trending upward recentl...
A big concern for many investors heading into this year was the potential for a market crash. With high valuations and economic uncertainty weighing on the market, the conditions may have appeared to be ripe for a significant downturn, especially given how hot the S&P 500 has been in recent years; it has generated above-average returns since 2023. While the S&P 500 has been trending upward recently and is up around 2% this year (as of Tuesday's close), there's still the risk that a crash could happen later on, especially if the war in Iran doesn't end soon, as that could impact many industries and result in elevated inflation. There are ways you can, however, reduce risk in your portfolio, and that's by going with strong businesses with excellent fundamentals. Three stocks that fit that criteria and that outperformed the market during the last big crash are ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) , Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) , and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKB) (NYSE: BRKA) . Continue reading
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) established its new artificial intelligence (AI) lab last year, the Meta Superintelligence Lab, spending billions of dollars on personnel and compute capacity to rebuild its artificial intelligence models from the ground up. That includes the $14 billion acquisition of Alexandr Wang, who heads up the lab. Nearly a year later, it finally has something to show for it. M...
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) established its new artificial intelligence (AI) lab last year, the Meta Superintelligence Lab, spending billions of dollars on personnel and compute capacity to rebuild its artificial intelligence models from the ground up. That includes the $14 billion acquisition of Alexandr Wang, who heads up the lab. Nearly a year later, it finally has something to show for it. Meta's new Muse Spark model is the first new model from Wang's team. It's competitive with leading models from OpenAI , Anthropic, and Alphabet 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google on most benchmarks, but it's far from blowing the competition away. In fact, it lags competing models in most regards. But Meta could still see a huge boost in profits thanks to its new model. Continue reading
WANAN YOSSINGKUM Artificial intelligence stands to lift economic output across the U.S. ( SPY ), U.K. ( EWU ), and eurozone ( EZU ) over the coming decade, with the U.S. positioned to capture the largest gains, according to an analysis from BNP Paribas released on Wednesday. In a note to clients, the bank outlined a scenario where AI ( AIQ ) ( AIEQ ) could push U.S. GDP roughly 6.7% higher than a ...
WANAN YOSSINGKUM Artificial intelligence stands to lift economic output across the U.S. ( SPY ), U.K. ( EWU ), and eurozone ( EZU ) over the coming decade, with the U.S. positioned to capture the largest gains, according to an analysis from BNP Paribas released on Wednesday. In a note to clients, the bank outlined a scenario where AI ( AIQ ) ( AIEQ ) could push U.S. GDP roughly 6.7% higher than a baseline without the technology by 2034. By comparison, the U.K. would see gains of about 3.5%, while the eurozone trails at approximately 1.9%. BNP Paribas attributed the U.S. advantage to stronger productivity effects and a more robust demand response, as businesses and consumers accelerate activity in anticipation of future efficiency improvements. The bank noted that the “sentiment” channel alone accounts for about one-third of the projected near-7% boost to U.S. GDP by 2034. Europe’s more modest outlook reflects structural factors, according to the analysis. The eurozone’s smaller technology sector, lower services exposure and more rigid labor markets make it slower to absorb technology-driven productivity gains. The U.K. falls somewhere between the two, with greater room for AI adoption than continental Europe but less flexibility and tech capacity than the U.S. Despite the uneven distribution of benefits, BNP Paribas emphasized that AI does not appear to be a zero-sum game. The technology could raise output across all three major economies, even as the U.S. sets the pace and captures the most significant early advantages. More on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, Amplify AI Powered Equity ETF, etc. Economic Warfare Could Lead To A Global Depression What In The World? 3 Country ETFs That Look Good Vs. S&P 500 Smart Money Is Deploying Fresh Capital Narrow tech rally powers market higher despite weak breadth Markets are quantifying economic risk, not full geopolitical risks – strategist
A Vanke building in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. Photo: VCG Cash-strapped developer China Vanke Co. Ltd. is seeking bondholder approval to extend by one year the maturity of a 2 billion yuan ($290 million) domestic bond, offering an upfront payment equal to 40% of principal. The proposal, sent Tuesday to holders of the 23 Vanke MTN001 note, mirrors terms the company used to secure extensions on t...
A Vanke building in Shenzhen, Guangdong province. Photo: VCG Cash-strapped developer China Vanke Co. Ltd. is seeking bondholder approval to extend by one year the maturity of a 2 billion yuan ($290 million) domestic bond, offering an upfront payment equal to 40% of principal. The proposal, sent Tuesday to holders of the 23 Vanke MTN001 note, mirrors terms the company used to secure extensions on three other onshore bonds earlier this year. Bondholders are set to vote at a meeting Friday, with voting closing April 20.
Wirestock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Following our update on VW and Porsche Automobil Holding SE , we are back to comment on Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (or P911) ( DRPRY ). In our last update, we analyzed the Q3 results. We moved our rating from Sell to Neutral as initial indications of a gradual recovery began to materialize, even if the broader sector remains challenging. Here at the Lab...
Wirestock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Following our update on VW and Porsche Automobil Holding SE , we are back to comment on Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (or P911) ( DRPRY ). In our last update, we analyzed the Q3 results. We moved our rating from Sell to Neutral as initial indications of a gradual recovery began to materialize, even if the broader sector remains challenging. Here at the Lab, we reported that Q4 was not expected to provide a meaningful catalyst; however, Porsche’s strong brand positioning and upcoming model cycle support a more constructive view, with margin recovery to mid- to high-single digits in 2026. This week, the company reported Q1 deliveries, so it is a good time to review our equity investment story, even considering an 8.22% decline in the share price since our last update (Fig. 1) Mare Ev. Lab Rating Update Fig 1 Q1 Deliveries Starting with Q1 auto deliveries, the company closed with 61k retail deliveries (Fig. 2). In numbers, Porsche AG delivered 15% lower than Q1 2025 and 9% lower quarter-on-quarter. Model performance was mixed across the range, but we see a negative trend ongoing. In particular, Panamera fell 42%. This was due to a product gap in China, as the company expects the new Panamera to roll out in April. Also, the 718 model reported a sharp 60% drop, and, again, this reflects its industrial discontinuation, which began in October 2025. Cayenne volumes were down by 4%, and deliveries of the Macan and Taycan declined by 23% and 19%, respectively. On a positive note, Porsche AG reported solid momentum for the 911 model, up 22% to approximately 14k units. Porsche AG Q1 Auto Deliveries Fig 2 Why are we still neutral? After the Q1 deliveries update, the company hosted a pre-close call. This was insightful, and the Porsche AG IR team reported an operating profit margin at the upper end of the 5.5-7.5% target corridor for 2026 (Fig. 2). This was supported by a stronger product MIX (911 and Cayenne) and low strategic realignmen...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment action I give a buy rating for Versigent ( VGNT ). I think the market is looking at this stock wrongly. VGNT is being treated like a low-quality spin and a basic wiring supplier, but the business looks better than that. It has scale, a sticky role in vehicle electrical architecture, and several levers within management’s control to lift margins. ...
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment action I give a buy rating for Versigent ( VGNT ). I think the market is looking at this stock wrongly. VGNT is being treated like a low-quality spin and a basic wiring supplier, but the business looks better than that. It has scale, a sticky role in vehicle electrical architecture, and several levers within management’s control to lift margins. At the same time, the valuation still looks too low for a business targeting ~12% adj. EBITDA margin by 2028 and about $1 billion of cumulative FCF from 2026 to 2028. Company description VGNT was spun out of Aptiv’s Electrical Distribution Systems business on April 1, 2026. It designs, develops, and manufactures vehicle electrical distribution systems. Basically, the products move signals, power, and data through the vehicle, mainly through wire harnesses and related low-and high-voltage electrical architectures. The customer base is made up primarily of OEMs. This is not just a wire business I think one of the biggest misunderstandings investors may have is to look at VGNT, a basic harness supplier that competes mostly on labor cost. The business model is much better than that. ~75% of revenue comes from full-service programs where VGNT works with OEMs early in electrical architecture design. That is a very different position from a supplier that only comes in when there is a finished print. For the latter, it is merely about who can offer the best pricing. For VGNT, that early role gives VGNT line of sight into future model launches and architectural roadmaps, which makes the business more embedded. A simpler perspective would be that since OEMs are already working with VGNT during the planning phase, it only makes sense to use VGNT’s products when the product goes into production. VGNT Scale also matters. VGNT is on one out of every six vehicles globally, one out of every three BEVs, and nine of the top 10 global platforms, or 21 of the top 25. Those are not the numbers ...
Each party has its own version of nationalism to offer voters in May’s Senedd election: closer ties to England or more independence for Wales It’s fair to say that the UK will change after the elections on 7 May. But few places will change as thoroughly as Wales. The polls suggest that after the vote our next Senedd will be led by either Plaid Cymru or Reform: this would make it the first time in ...
Each party has its own version of nationalism to offer voters in May’s Senedd election: closer ties to England or more independence for Wales It’s fair to say that the UK will change after the elections on 7 May. But few places will change as thoroughly as Wales. The polls suggest that after the vote our next Senedd will be led by either Plaid Cymru or Reform: this would make it the first time in 100 years that Welsh Labour is not the largest party in Cymru. However, Plaid and Reform’s visions for Wales are polar opposites – and their supporters are torn between two wildly different visions for their country. When you look at the Plaid and Reform manifestos, the differences are immediately apparent. First of all, Plaid’s document is a chunky 74 pages compared with Reform’s 18. Plaid dedicates huge amounts of ink to explaining how the party is going to fight for concessions or increased power from Westminster on everything from tax to rail devolution. Contrast that with Reform’s leader in Wales, Dan Thomas, who said that a Reform government in Wales would not “pick a fight with Westminster” except on the “one matter of immigration”. Continue reading...
PeopleImages/iStock via Getty Images In my recent article covering 7 high-yield fixed income CEFs that are trading at a wider than average discount, one of those that I mentioned is Western Asset Diversified Income Fund ( WDI ). One of the criteria for evaluating whether a CEF is a potential buy candidate is the current discount (or premium) to NAV that the fund trades at based on the latest marke...
PeopleImages/iStock via Getty Images In my recent article covering 7 high-yield fixed income CEFs that are trading at a wider than average discount, one of those that I mentioned is Western Asset Diversified Income Fund ( WDI ). One of the criteria for evaluating whether a CEF is a potential buy candidate is the current discount (or premium) to NAV that the fund trades at based on the latest market price. One advantage to investing in CEFs is the ability to buy funds that are trading at a wider than average discount, because the fund managers often take steps to close that discount, or because the market adjusts the price closer to NAV after positive market sentiment drives the price higher. Either way, there is typically a price pattern that can be taken advantage of based on the trading history of a specific CEF. Although WDI is less than five years old, it has followed a pattern similar to its peer funds like KKR Income Opportunities Fund ( KIO ), Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund ( ARDC ), and PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund ( PDI ) in the past three years delivering similar (and in fact, better) total returns than those multi-asset fixed income funds. Seeking Alpha In this review, I want to take a more detailed look at WDI and suggest that income investors with a long-term horizon (ten to twenty years or more), might want to consider taking a position in this fund now while it trades at a much wider than average discount. Before I get into the details on WDI, I want to reiterate my reasoning behind the recent market price action that has negatively impacted fixed income funds. Interest rates are one factor and we witnessed in 2022 how rapidly rising inflation caused interest rates to soar from near zero to over 4% in a matter of months. That negatively impacted WDI especially, which had just launched in June 2021. We can easily see on the 5-year price chart how WDI lost a lot of value in 2022 before recovering in 2024 as rates began to stabilize. Seeking Alpha The ...
If you know the name Allbirds, it's probably for the company's longstanding stated commitment to "sustainable shoes and apparel." Going forward, though, the corporate entity wants to be known for its "long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider." In a news release Wednesday morning , Allbirds announced that it has secured a $50 mil...
If you know the name Allbirds, it's probably for the company's longstanding stated commitment to "sustainable shoes and apparel." Going forward, though, the corporate entity wants to be known for its "long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider." In a news release Wednesday morning , Allbirds announced that it has secured a $50 million convertible finance facility to help power this unexpected "pivot ... to AI compute infrastructure." If all goes to plan, the company will soon be known as NewBird AI, by which point it will presumably change the image of a spandex-clad hiker that still sits atop its News Release page . Just weeks ago, Allbirds announced the $39 million sale of the "Allbirds brand and footwear assets" to American Exchange Group, owner of Aerosoles, Ecko Unlimited, and other fashion brands . Today's AI pivot announcement certainly casts that sale in a new light. But Allbirds also announced a new line of colorful Canvas Cruiser shoes just last week , so it's unclear how much long-term planning went into this new AI-related direction. Read full article Comments
Tony Anderson/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Even as the S&P 500 has largely clawed back losses from the war in the Middle East, 30-year U.S. treasury yields ( US30Y ) remain higher than pre-war levels as investors price in a more gradual path to Fed policy normalization. This dynamic continues to weigh on the valuation of perpetual preferred shares which enjoy robust dividend coverag...
Tony Anderson/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction Even as the S&P 500 has largely clawed back losses from the war in the Middle East, 30-year U.S. treasury yields ( US30Y ) remain higher than pre-war levels as investors price in a more gradual path to Fed policy normalization. This dynamic continues to weigh on the valuation of perpetual preferred shares which enjoy robust dividend coverage, with share prices slipping on a year-to-date basis. I anticipate the effect of higher rates to prove short-lived, with the Fed resuming rate cuts in H2 2027 and into 2028, when high inflation readings will fade out of year-over-year comparisons. This in turn should prove to be a tailwind for preferred shares enjoying robust dividend coverage. Investors looking to benefit from a rebound in perpetual preferred shares may want to consider American Homes 4 Rent ( AMH )'s 5.875% fixed-rate series G preferred shares ( AMH.PR.G ) which are little changed since my prior coverage in February 2025 . Back then I highlighted the high safety profile of AMH preferreds, arguing the yield premium offered by the company's preferreds was likely excessive in light of attractive financing rates on debt. Fast forward to April 2026, I believe the series G preferreds remain attractively valued, offering a compelling investment opportunity for investors with a 2027/2028 horizon. The bullish investment thesis behind AMH.PR.G can be summarized as: AMH's preferred dividends are covered 52.3x by 2025 adjusted FFO, with coverage improving from 2024 to 2025. Coverage of preferred equity by common equity market capitalization stands at 53.5x, further enhanced by the preferred shares trading below book value. The series G preferred shares offer a circa 10.4% annualized total return should they trade close to book value in April 2028. Safety of Preferred Distributions AMH paid $13.9 million in 2025 preferred dividends , unchanged from 2024. In contrast, AMH's adjusted FFO (which accounts for recurring c...