Jon Tetzlaff/iStock Editorial via Getty Images What's Next For UPS? I called United Parcel Service, Inc. ( UPS ) stock a "Buy" in early September, and then confirmed the bullish outlook in mid-November. Since then, the stock has gained over 35%, and in terms of the technical analysis, it's now touching the multi-week resistance levels amid extreme overboughtness on the RSI level. TrendSpider Softw...
Jon Tetzlaff/iStock Editorial via Getty Images What's Next For UPS? I called United Parcel Service, Inc. ( UPS ) stock a "Buy" in early September, and then confirmed the bullish outlook in mid-November. Since then, the stock has gained over 35%, and in terms of the technical analysis, it's now touching the multi-week resistance levels amid extreme overboughtness on the RSI level. TrendSpider Software, UPS weekly, the author's notes The recent earnings report, in my view, signals a pivot point from a volume-chasing growth model to a framework that focuses primarily on margins, and it helped the market's narrative change to the bullish side. After multiple downward-sloping earnings consensus revisions that we've seen since 2023, I think that once UPS exits its Amazon ( AMZN ) drawdown and starts to operate a much leaner network, we should start to see sequential revenue increases amid high single-digit operating profit growth, and if so, the current consensus estimates don't seem to be fully reflecting what's coming next. In my opinion, UPS is likely to keep its rally in place in the next couple of years, so I remain bullish on the stock. Why Do I Think So? In the headlines, we saw that UPS managed to beat the Q4 consensus estimates by almost 2% on the top line ($24.5 billion, -3.2% YoY) and about 8% on the bottom line ($2.38, -13.45% YoY), according to Seeking Alpha . If we take a look at the segments, we'll notice that the U.S. Domestic Package business saw its average daily volume (ADV) dropping by 10.8% YoY, but the top line there fell by just 3.2% because the revenue per piece (RPP) jumped by ~8.3% YoY. So, the shedding of low-margin e-commerce volumes and the simultaneous refocus on complex packages that carry solid RPPs seem to work well (at least it's better than the market had expected initially). The International Package unit saw its revenues grow by 2.5%, and it was the highest Q4 growth in 4 years, as the management noted on the call . The Supply Chain So...
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images Entertainment Celsius Holdings, Inc. ( CELH ) jumped on some minor positive indications from an investor conference. The Alani Nu acquisition is starting to lapse the deal close, providing the market with a far clearer indication of the organic growth rates going forward. My investment thesis is still Bullish on the stock, though the PepsiCo ( PEP ) distribution de...
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images Entertainment Celsius Holdings, Inc. ( CELH ) jumped on some minor positive indications from an investor conference. The Alani Nu acquisition is starting to lapse the deal close, providing the market with a far clearer indication of the organic growth rates going forward. My investment thesis is still Bullish on the stock, though the PepsiCo ( PEP ) distribution deal has again not been the expected home run for the stock. Source: Finviz Pepsi Pains Celsius plunged back in early November after reporting Q3'25 results due to another potential distribution disruption from Pepsi. The company is now in the process of shifting Alani Nu distribution to Pepsi starting December 1 . On the Q3'25 earnings release , the company highlighted the expected disruption from Alani Nu shifting to Pepsi as follows: As we transition a large portion of the Alani Nu business into our largest distributor, inventory movements will affect reported results, as the company primarily recognizes revenue upon delivery to its distributor partners and retailers. During this process, former distributors will wind down their inventory and return any remaining products while the new distributor will build Alani Nu inventory in advance of assuming distribution and will likely optimize its warehousing and distribution centers, which may affect sales and inventory levels amongst all of our brands. Celsius had just reported a strong quarter, with sales reaching $725 million by beating consensus estimates by over $9 million. The numbers were impressive, as the beverage company had only previously reached $400 million in 2025 before adding the smaller Alani Nu. Though, the Pepsi distribution-related plunge reminds shareholders of the problems hitting the business in the prior year. Celsius reported surging sales until Pepsi cut back on inventory levels, crushing the stock in 2024, and now the shift of the Alani Nu brand to Pepsi distribution is again crushing the stock. In fa...
Chinese travelers spent a lot more during an annual holiday that ended Monday, a rare sign of improving consumer sentiment after the government boosted efforts to spur demand for goods and services. Domestic travel and hotel stays, retail sales and overseas trips all jumped from a year earlier over the nine-day Lunar New Year break, according to official data and reports from travel companies. The...
Chinese travelers spent a lot more during an annual holiday that ended Monday, a rare sign of improving consumer sentiment after the government boosted efforts to spur demand for goods and services. Domestic travel and hotel stays, retail sales and overseas trips all jumped from a year earlier over the nine-day Lunar New Year break, according to official data and reports from travel companies. The unusually long holiday likely encouraged longer trips, amplifying the rebound. The pickup adds to signs that government measures — from extending the holiday to offering subsidies or cash rewards for purchases — are gaining some traction. If momentum holds beyond the festive period, it would bolster the government’s push to lift household spending and stabilize prices. “Consumption appears better than generally assumed, potentially supported by a wealth effect from the equity rally and local subsidies – especially to tourism,” Citigroup Inc. economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote in a Monday note. Early indicators pointed to firmer activity in stores and restaurants. During the first four days of the holiday, average daily sales at key retail and catering enterprises nationwide rose 8.6% from same period last year, state broadcaster China Central Television reported , citing data from the Ministry of Commerce. In the island province of Hainan, sales at duty-free stores soared by almost a third to 2.7 billion yuan ($395 million) over the break, the Shanghai Securities News reported Tuesday. Travel platforms also described a busier holiday and higher spending per trip. Fliggy, Alibaba Group Holding’s online travel service, said domestic travel orders reached a record and booking value per person climbed about 10%, as traveler took more trips and went farther afield. The number of nights travelers spent in hotels jumped 75% from a year earlier, while orders for popular theme-park and attraction packages that bundle accommodation and entertainment soared 140%, Fliggy said. Meitu...
Singapore Airlines Ltd. said operating profit jumped 26% in the third quarter, and revenue hit a record, as booming travel demand saw bumper passenger numbers. Operating profit was S$792 million ($625 million) in the three months ended Dec. 31, the airline said Tuesday. Net income fell 69% to S$505 million following a one-time accounting gain a year earlier, while revenue climbed 5.5% to S$5.5 bil...
Singapore Airlines Ltd. said operating profit jumped 26% in the third quarter, and revenue hit a record, as booming travel demand saw bumper passenger numbers. Operating profit was S$792 million ($625 million) in the three months ended Dec. 31, the airline said Tuesday. Net income fell 69% to S$505 million following a one-time accounting gain a year earlier, while revenue climbed 5.5% to S$5.5 billion. Still, challenges with a planned turnaround for Air India Ltd. , in which Singapore’s national carrier has a 25.1% stake, continue to be a headwind. Losses from associated companies, mostly from Air India, were S$178 million in the quarter. Bloomberg News reported last month that Air India is heading for a record $1.6 billion full-year loss following last year’s deadly crash and airspace shutdowns. SIA said it was “firmly committed” to working with partner Tata Sons to support Air India’s transformation. Read More: Air India Braces for Record $1.6 Billion Loss After Deadly Crash Despite SIA’s concerns about mounting competition, it continues to expand capacity and services and said in a statement that demand for air travel in the fourth quarter is healthy. The airline is also set to roll out the first of several dozen jets fitted with new seats as part of a S$1.1 billion retrofit . In December, the airline hit a post-Covid milestone — exceeding capacity and passenger volumes compared with January 2020. Combined, Singapore Air and budget unit Scoot carried 10.9 million passengers in the quarter, up 6.3% from a year earlier. With travel demand increasing, the airline’s revenue jump helped outpace rising costs. The carrier’s yields — a key metric of flight profitability and airfares — rose 1.9% to 10.9 Singaporean cents per kilometer, the first increase in three years. Beyond passenger travel, the airline said global trade and geopolitical uncertainties are clouding the outlook for its cargo business. The group is monitoring the situation and will leverage its network to...
Dmitry Vinogradov Stock index futures were higher on Tuesday as Wall Street looked to regain some ground after Monday’s brutal AI-driven selloff. S&P 500 futures ( SPX ) rose +0.19%, Nasdaq 100 futures ( US100:IND ) advanced +0.16%, and Dow futures ( INDU ) edged up +0.10%. Markets ended Monday markedly in the red as renewed uncertainty gripped investors following President Donald Trump’s recent t...
Dmitry Vinogradov Stock index futures were higher on Tuesday as Wall Street looked to regain some ground after Monday’s brutal AI-driven selloff. S&P 500 futures ( SPX ) rose +0.19%, Nasdaq 100 futures ( US100:IND ) advanced +0.16%, and Dow futures ( INDU ) edged up +0.10%. Markets ended Monday markedly in the red as renewed uncertainty gripped investors following President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement, while AI disruption fears continued to linger as software stocks dropped. Treasury yields were little changed in early trading. The 2-year Treasury yield ( US2Y ) held at 3.46%, the 10-year Treasury yield ( US10Y ) stood at 4.04%, and the 30-year Treasury yield ( US30Y ) sat at 4.70%. On the economic calendar, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index, and Consumer Confidence are the main reports. A full slate of Fedspeak is also on tap, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Top gainers premarket included Keysight Technologies ( KEYS ) +17.22%, Fox ( FOXA ) +5.40%, and MGM Resorts International ( MGM ) +2.77%. Decliners included Diamondback Energy ( FANG ) -2.49%, Garmin ( GRMN ) -2.13%, and Phillips 66 ( PSX ) -1.99%. More on markets SPX Skew Steepens To 1Y High As Tariff Uncertainty Rises Tech Bulls Keep Calling The Bottom As Energy And Industrials Steal The Rally Mounting Uncertainty After the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, here's what could be next for stocks SCOTUS ruling could put over $175B in U.S. tariff revenue at risk, Penn-Wharton estimates
Moviegoers walk through a cinema decorated for the Lunar New Year holiday in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Feb. 17. Photo: VCG China’s box office revenue for the Lunar New Year holiday plummeted 40% from a year earlier to 5.75 billion yuan ($832 million), a dismal showing that sent film stocks tumbling on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse. Revenue fell short of analysts’ forecasts of 7.5 ...
Moviegoers walk through a cinema decorated for the Lunar New Year holiday in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Feb. 17. Photo: VCG China’s box office revenue for the Lunar New Year holiday plummeted 40% from a year earlier to 5.75 billion yuan ($832 million), a dismal showing that sent film stocks tumbling on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse. Revenue fell short of analysts’ forecasts of 7.5 billion to 8 billion yuan despite the longer-than-usual holiday, which ran from Feb. 15 to Monday, marking the industry’s weakest Lunar New Year performance in years.
Steve Rosenbach/iStock Editorial via Getty Images If you are an investor in Danaos Corporation ( DAC ), or if you stumbled upon this stock after doing some screening, it is likely for one key reason: deep value. The thesis for owning DAC over the post-pandemic years has been straightforward: it is a highly profitable container ship lessor, with a high level of earnings visibility and a fortress ba...
Steve Rosenbach/iStock Editorial via Getty Images If you are an investor in Danaos Corporation ( DAC ), or if you stumbled upon this stock after doing some screening, it is likely for one key reason: deep value. The thesis for owning DAC over the post-pandemic years has been straightforward: it is a highly profitable container ship lessor, with a high level of earnings visibility and a fortress balance sheet, trading at bargain basement prices. This thesis still largely holds true in my view, and we will review it shortly. I have been a shareholder since early 2023, and my calculus at the time was that the company had enough contracted revenue over the next 3 years to generate net income equal to its entire market cap. In other words, if you stuck around for a few years, you might be able to disprove Milton Friedman's assertion that "there is no free lunch" (or, in this case, free ships). Of course, the first question a serious investor would ask is, "What's the catch?" or "Why is this company so cheap if it's so wonderful?" Certainly, the industry plays a role; shipping companies typically trade at low multiples as the sector is both capital intensive and very cyclical. However, DAC's long-term chartering model, combined with its very healthy balance sheet, largely insulates it from the dangers of the business cycle. Instead, the most convincing bearish arguments I've seen proposed here on Seeking Alpha have generally been about capital allocation, specifically investors' lack of trust in DAC's allocation strategy and commitment to shareholder value, which in turn justifies a valuation haircut. The main criticism is that the CEO, Dr. John Coustas, owns a controlling stake in the company, which makes some uneasy, and that he prefers to do "empire building" and expand his fleet rather than return money to shareholders in a very accretive way (at 0.5 price to book) by doing buybacks aggressively since DAC has been flush with cash post-COVID. Seen in this light, Danaos...