Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Northern Dynasty Minerals Update Data by YCharts Every now and then, I cover a gold developer who has truly massive upside potential but also enormous risk. Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. ( NAK ) is one such example. It's one of the most controversial names in the sector, and with good reason. The Pebble Project in Alaska is one of the biggest undevelop...
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images Northern Dynasty Minerals Update Data by YCharts Every now and then, I cover a gold developer who has truly massive upside potential but also enormous risk. Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. ( NAK ) is one such example. It's one of the most controversial names in the sector, and with good reason. The Pebble Project in Alaska is one of the biggest undeveloped copper and gold deposits on the planet, but it faces enormous opposition. The resource numbers are simply staggering, as we'll get into the numbers below. The economics, on paper, are also really compelling. Unfortunately, though, this project has been stuck in a permitting pause and legal battles for the better part of two decades, with every major mining partner that once backed it having walked away. At roughly $1.90 per share and a market cap just under $1 billion, the stock has run nearly 70% off its March lows on renewed optimism around its federal court challenge of the EPA veto. I understand the reason for some renewed optimism in this project. But I'm maintaining a Hold rating here. The resource is real, but I don't believe the path to actually building the mine is there (at least for now). What You Need to Know About Pebble Northern Dynasty Minerals The geology behind this project looks sound. Pebble contains 6.5 billion tonnes of measured and indicated resources and another 4.5 billion tonnes inferred. The recoverable metal inventory reads like something out of a geology textbook that someone exaggerated for dramatic effect, except these resource numbers are not fake. The M&I resource alone includes 54 million ounces of gold, 53 billion pounds of copper, and 2.8 billion pounds of molybdenum. If you add in the inferred category (which is considered quite speculative), you are looking at 82 million ounces of gold and 76 billion pounds of copper. On a copper-equivalent basis, the company pegs the M&I resource at roughly 89 billion pounds. That is enormous by any ...
Nokia has transitioned from a legacy mobile phone manufacturer into a critical provider of high-speed hardware supporting the global expansion of the cloud.
Nokia has transitioned from a legacy mobile phone manufacturer into a critical provider of high-speed hardware supporting the global expansion of the cloud.
LuVo/iStock via Getty Images Business Brief Blue Owl Capital ( OWL ) is a private equity [PE] firm. It has $307B in AUM split across Credit (lending to mid-large private companies), Real Assets (owning and collecting rents on, or lending against hard assets like real estate or data centers) and GP Strategic Capital (buying minority stakes in other investment firms). Here's the AUM mix: AUM Mix (Co...
LuVo/iStock via Getty Images Business Brief Blue Owl Capital ( OWL ) is a private equity [PE] firm. It has $307B in AUM split across Credit (lending to mid-large private companies), Real Assets (owning and collecting rents on, or lending against hard assets like real estate or data centers) and GP Strategic Capital (buying minority stakes in other investment firms). Here's the AUM mix: AUM Mix (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Blue Owl Capital earns management and sometimes performance fees on its fee-paying AUM (FPAUM). About 61% of its total AUM is earning fees as of the Dec'25 quarter: Total FPAUM Mix (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Permanent capital in a PE manager like OWL refers to money that does not have a fixed end date at which the principal must be returned to investors. So in theory, this capital can stay with a PE manager indefinitely, earning steady management and performance fees every year. So having a high portion of permanent capital improves the quality and stability of the PE manager's earnings. Blue Owl Capital has about 73% of its total AUM as permanent capital: Total permanent capital as % of AUM (Company Filings, HA Analysis) Elevator Pitch Blue Owl Capital is a very interesting situation because from a historical financials print perspective, nothing seems wrong. But the market has been strongly reacting to expectations of future weakness. Here's how I'm making sense of it: Historical growth and margin trends look good Concerns on portfolio value is driving fear-driven selloffs in the stock Low-ball offers from activist investors and high short interest make a case for an upside squeeze OWL stock is being de-rated but perhaps justifiably so Don't catch the falling knife Historical Growth and Margin Trends Look Good The fee-related revenues and fee-related earnings (FRE) margins are growing nicely and are at healthy levels: FRE Revenues (USD mn) (Company Filings, HA Analysis) FRE Margin (Company Filings, HA Analysis) AUM growth is also in a good ...
Kenneth Cheung/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images 2026 has not started well for big tech investors. Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has been the hardest-hit big tech company so far this year, with its stock down ~21% YTD. In fact, Q1 marked the worst performance for MSFT since 2008. This lackluster performance came on the back of rising investor skepticism surrounding aggressive AI investments (Cap...
Kenneth Cheung/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images 2026 has not started well for big tech investors. Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has been the hardest-hit big tech company so far this year, with its stock down ~21% YTD. In fact, Q1 marked the worst performance for MSFT since 2008. This lackluster performance came on the back of rising investor skepticism surrounding aggressive AI investments (CapEx projected to hit $146 billion in FY 2026) and growth fears for the cloud business. As a long-term shareholder, I have remained optimistic during this downturn as I continue to believe in the long-term growth potential of the company. Last week, an interesting development came to light with Anthropic launching the beta version of Claude for Word. This is a native sidebar add-in developed specifically for Microsoft Word. Claude has been aggressively rolling out new features in the past month or so (Claude Cowork general availability, persistent memory, managed agents, multi-agent review, etc.), and this beta version of Claude for Word is its newest product rollout. Claude for Word directly threatens to displace Copilot, which is the product suite developed by Microsoft in partnership with OpenAI's ChatGPT (Microsoft owns a key stake in OpenAI). Amid the growing risk of Copilot revenue displacement, I am taking a more cautious stance on Microsoft today. Claude for Word To get a quick understanding of Claude for Word, I highly recommend watching this official release video published by Claude. For now, the beta version of this Word add-in is available to Claude Team and Enterprise users. I do not have a Claude subscription, but I tried Claude for Word on a colleague's laptop. I noticed several features in this add-in that make a real difference for Word users. Native integration of tracked changes (this is a very nice feature that could save a lot of time for enterprise users and behaves like a human collaborator monitoring the work). Preservation of complex formatting withi...
Kenneth Cheung/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images 2026 has not started well for big tech investors. Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has been the hardest-hit big tech company so far this year, with its stock down ~21% YTD. In fact, Q1 marked the worst performance for MSFT since 2008. This lackluster performance came on the back of rising investor skepticism surrounding aggressive AI investments (Cap...
Kenneth Cheung/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images 2026 has not started well for big tech investors. Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) has been the hardest-hit big tech company so far this year, with its stock down ~21% YTD. In fact, Q1 marked the worst performance for MSFT since 2008. This lackluster performance came on the back of rising investor skepticism surrounding aggressive AI investments (CapEx projected to hit $146 billion in FY 2026) and growth fears for the cloud business. As a long-term shareholder, I have remained optimistic during this downturn as I continue to believe in the long-term growth potential of the company. Last week, an interesting development came to light with Anthropic launching the beta version of Claude for Word. This is a native sidebar add-in developed specifically for Microsoft Word. Claude has been aggressively rolling out new features in the past month or so (Claude Cowork general availability, persistent memory, managed agents, multi-agent review, etc.), and this beta version of Claude for Word is its newest product rollout. Claude for Word directly threatens to displace Copilot, which is the product suite developed by Microsoft in partnership with OpenAI's ChatGPT (Microsoft owns a key stake in OpenAI). Amid the growing risk of Copilot revenue displacement, I am taking a more cautious stance on Microsoft today. Claude for Word To get a quick understanding of Claude for Word, I highly recommend watching this official release video published by Claude. For now, the beta version of this Word add-in is available to Claude Team and Enterprise users. I do not have a Claude subscription, but I tried Claude for Word on a colleague's laptop. I noticed several features in this add-in that make a real difference for Word users. Native integration of tracked changes (this is a very nice feature that could save a lot of time for enterprise users and behaves like a human collaborator monitoring the work). Preservation of complex formatting withi...