chapin31/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis I previously covered Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ( TXRH ) in July 2024 , where I gave the stock a Buy rating based on strong fundamentals. Although the fundamentals remain relatively strong, with a high level of free cash flow amid their expanding restaurants, TXRH has underperformed the market by only achieving a 1.28% total return over this ...
chapin31/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Investment Thesis I previously covered Texas Roadhouse, Inc. ( TXRH ) in July 2024 , where I gave the stock a Buy rating based on strong fundamentals. Although the fundamentals remain relatively strong, with a high level of free cash flow amid their expanding restaurants, TXRH has underperformed the market by only achieving a 1.28% total return over this time. However, over the last 3 years on an annualized basis, the total return for TXRH has only recently fallen below the broader market. Given TXRH's ability to navigate a difficult economic environment successfully, their strong fundamentals, and management's focus on the business, I believe TXRH presents a strong value diversification in a portfolio of riskier assets at the right price. Given a discounted cash flow model of valuation based on expected earnings per share and current levels of free cash flow, TXRH trades at a premium despite strong fundamentals. Data by YCharts Previous Coverage I last covered Texas Roadhouse in July 2024, where I discussed their fundamentals, fair value price target, and compared their stock performance to other popular fast casual restaurants such as The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated ( CAKE ), Brinker International, Inc. ( EAT ) and Yum China Holdings, Inc. ( YUMC ) with their performance over the last decade. Updating that comparison below. TXRH has still significantly outperformed peers over the last decade. However, EAT recently had two strong years while TXRH has stalled, which shows the intense competition in this space. Further, I described how TXRH has consistently grown their revenue by an annualized 12% a year, maintained a positive ROIC to WACC ratio, and had a high return on equity. Although they displayed a solid fundamental picture, investors have remained mixed over the last couple of years, and the stock has remained stagnant. Comparison of stock total return of peers in the fast casual restaurant industry compared to TX...
aluxum/E+ via Getty Images Wall Street traded lower on Monday as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal faded, with escalating tensions in the Middle East weighing on investor sentiment and prompting a pullback in equities following last week’s rally. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) slipped -0.2%, while the benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) dipped -0.1%, and the blue-chip Dow ( DJ...
aluxum/E+ via Getty Images Wall Street traded lower on Monday as optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal faded, with escalating tensions in the Middle East weighing on investor sentiment and prompting a pullback in equities following last week’s rally. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) slipped -0.2%, while the benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) dipped -0.1%, and the blue-chip Dow ( DJI ) hovered near even. On a sector-by-sector basis, six of the 11 S&P segments are trading up in the green, with energy at the top as oil ( CL1:COM ) was up over 4%. At the other end of the spectrum, consumer discretionary has suffered the most so far in the session. Iran will not participate in a second round of talks with the United States, according to Iranian state media, which said Tehran objected to what it described as excessive and unrealistic demands from Washington. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield ( US10Y ) rose 1 basis point to 4.25%, while the 2-year Treasury yield ( US2Y ) climbed 2 basis points to 3.72%. The 30-year Treasury yield ( US30Y ) was mostly unchanged at 4.88%. As for stocks that were on the move, Marvell Technology ( MRVL ) climbed +4.9%, while shares of Intel ( INTC ) dropped -3.2%. More on markets Energy and AI drive positive earnings revisions while most sectors stall HSBC says 1Q earnings remain resilient despite turbulent markets Henry Paulson sounds alarm on potential Treasury market shock The Trade Driving The S&P 500 Higher May Not Last S&P 500: I Sold Too Early, What Now? (Technical Analysis)
imaginima/iStock via Getty Images The problem here is not that one particular satellite failed . Launch delays are expected in any space venture; however, the market sometimes tends to treat them as anomalies. What makes AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS ) notable is the transition from the speculative business model to a business model that requires execution. This is my explanation of the subsequent declin...
imaginima/iStock via Getty Images The problem here is not that one particular satellite failed . Launch delays are expected in any space venture; however, the market sometimes tends to treat them as anomalies. What makes AST SpaceMobile ( ASTS ) notable is the transition from the speculative business model to a business model that requires execution. This is my explanation of the subsequent decline in the price after the BlueBird 7 episode. The problem here is not about the failure of the satellite, which performed normally when launched into orbit. This malfunction relates to the launch vehicle's poor performance. However, this is a different case since the main issue now is not about the technology of the company. The key aspect here is that at this moment the company is becoming more dependent on external parties, especially on launches. I am upgrading my earlier rating from Hold to Buy on the basis that the sell-off was an opportunity for resetting expectations rather than the thesis. The stock is now valued based on execution risk rather than perfect execution, as previously. The combination of technology, demand confirmation, and a solid balance sheet makes for an excellent risk-reward proposition. Execution Reset, Not a Collapse To make this clear, I was quite skeptical about investing in AST SpaceMobile prior to the news of the launch failure. The reason for this view was simple: the company's setup was simply getting ahead of itself. To that end, while I would not say that this is a bargain price range, the current decline represents much better buying grounds for me. If I had to define the current pullback, I would rather call it a repricing of execution-related risks. ASTS had begun underperforming well before the launch date, which told me that there was an expectation for an event with binary results. Naturally, the launch malfunctioning confirmed the negative outcome. The problem with the selloff is that the loss of BlueBird 7 means a lot more than jus...
Getty Images The financial markets have largely shrugged off the war in the Middle East, setting new highs, largely incorporating a rather swift and fast reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In my prior report , I marked this as an euphoric market reaction with a sobering reality, and we are now seeing that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that turned investors bullish again is gone as Iran has...
Getty Images The financial markets have largely shrugged off the war in the Middle East, setting new highs, largely incorporating a rather swift and fast reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In my prior report , I marked this as an euphoric market reaction with a sobering reality, and we are now seeing that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that turned investors bullish again is gone as Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again. The Ceasefire Remains Weak One of my major concerns about the bullish market reaction has been that it largely reacted to President Trump’s daily positive takes on a lasting ceasefire and peace deal with Iran, rather than looking at the things that were happening. The reality is that the ceasefire deal was reached while B-52 bombers were airborne, and I could see KC-135 tankers stationed in Bucharest taking off to refuel those bombers. So, the ceasefire was one that both sides reached to avoid an imminent escalation of the war. Rather quickly after that, it became clear that while both sides reached a placeholder agreement for a ceasefire, neither side actually could agree on what the terms of the ceasefire were. So, both parties agreed on a headline ceasefire while still disagreeing on the terms. That is just a weak ceasefire agreement. The biggest points of disagreement were the Strait of Hormuz reopening, nuclear enrichment, and compensation for damages. While the ceasefire was in effect on paper, Iran still attacked its neighbours, and there were attacks in Iran on the Lavan refinery . Days after the ceasefire, negotiations between Iran and the U.S. took place but ended without an agreement, showing how fragile the ceasefire is. In response, President Trump imposed a US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. While President Trump has shown optimism about a new round of peace talks, Iran denied that it will be participating in such talks. The news comes at a moment when Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz again, and both partie...
Key Events This Week: Warsh Nomination Hearing, Retail Sales, Fed Blackout, Earnings As the war in Iran enters its 8th week, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says that recent developments can be framed in two ways: either five steps forward towards peace and three back (seems more apt than three and two), or as evidence that the two sides remain far enough apart that a lasting deal will be extremely hard ...
Key Events This Week: Warsh Nomination Hearing, Retail Sales, Fed Blackout, Earnings As the war in Iran enters its 8th week, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says that recent developments can be framed in two ways: either five steps forward towards peace and three back (seems more apt than three and two), or as evidence that the two sides remain far enough apart that a lasting deal will be extremely hard to achieve and markets have become far too optimistic. Reid leans more towards the former, but the comparison with recent history is uncomfortable. Remember the 10%+ S&P 500 rally in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, when hopes briefly grew of an early negotiated settlement, only to be disappointed. That episode is a clear warning sign. That said, the political calculus around Iran may be different. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, President Trump’s approval rating dipped notably after the war began but appears to have stabilised since the two-week ceasefire was announced on 7 April—possibly reflecting the subsequent fall in petrol prices. A renewed deterioration in negotiations would therefore be unlikely to help approval ratings if oil and gas prices were to rise again. The headline news over the weekend was Iran stating that the Strait of Hormuz was shut less than 24 hours after indicating on Friday that it would reopen. Shipping through the strait has now again ground to a halt after picking up on Saturday. On Friday afternoon in London, Polymarket had priced the probability of Strait traffic returning to normal by the end of May as high as 84%. That has now fallen back to around 66%, close to last Thursday’s level, but still well above the 37% probability priced this time last week. The current ceasefire is due to expire at some point on Wednesday. President Trump struck a more hawkish tone yesterday, posting that while his negotiators will be in Islamabad for talks tonight (with possible talks reported for Tuesday), if Iran does not accept the deal on ...
Gasoline’s premium to crude posted its biggest weekly gain on record, a boost for refiners that have been under pressure from high oil prices stoked by the Iran war. In northwest Europe, the road fuel hit a premium to crude of more than $17 a barrel on Friday — a gain of about $25 from a week earlier, marking the biggest jump in data going back to late 2010 from General Index. The sharp rise follo...
Gasoline’s premium to crude posted its biggest weekly gain on record, a boost for refiners that have been under pressure from high oil prices stoked by the Iran war. In northwest Europe, the road fuel hit a premium to crude of more than $17 a barrel on Friday — a gain of about $25 from a week earlier, marking the biggest jump in data going back to late 2010 from General Index. The sharp rise follows a similarly steep drop in recent weeks. The whiplash in gasoline’s relative value is due in large part to sharp moves in the cost of physical crude oil. Earlier in April, Dated Brent hit a record high, helping push gasoline’s differential — known as its “crack” — into the red. Now, the price of crude has weakened, and gasoline is once again positive versus Dated Brent. “The strength of Dated Brent in early April had pushed European refinery margins for simple and gasoline-focused setups into negative territory, raising the prospect of run cuts,” said Eugene Lindell , head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA. Gasoline cracks “have returned to double-digit premiums to Dated Brent, rescuing Brent FCC margins from run cut territory,” he added. See also: Analysts Warn of Production Cuts at European Oil Refineries Margins for European oil refineries are “looking better, but will need to hold to prevent run cuts,” said Natalia Losada , a senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects.
After some optimism on Friday, Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend. The US also seized a ship and Tehran fired on vessels in the area deepening the global energy crisis. Bloomberg's Julian Lee has the latest. (Source: Bloomberg)
After some optimism on Friday, Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend. The US also seized a ship and Tehran fired on vessels in the area deepening the global energy crisis. Bloomberg's Julian Lee has the latest. (Source: Bloomberg)
halbergman Citi Research added Full Truck Alliance ( YMM ) to its 30-day Catalyst Watch with a Buy recommendation as the company now shows better earnings growth visibility. The earnings potential reflects the company’s dominance in a “well-established ecosystem,” a ramp-up in commission revenue that should drive the company’s sales and earnings growth, and penetration in the less-than-truckload a...
halbergman Citi Research added Full Truck Alliance ( YMM ) to its 30-day Catalyst Watch with a Buy recommendation as the company now shows better earnings growth visibility. The earnings potential reflects the company’s dominance in a “well-established ecosystem,” a ramp-up in commission revenue that should drive the company’s sales and earnings growth, and penetration in the less-than-truckload and intra-city transportation market that “shows promise,” Citi’s Brian Gong noted. However, Gong still assigns a “High Risk” rating to the stock given its short trading history and the ongoing data investigation into the company. This investigation could result in material fines and a protracted suspension of new user registrations. Additionally, a slow ramp-up of commissions and the need to offer large-scale incentives in the intra-city transportation market are also potential risks to the stock’s upside. More on Full Truck Alliance Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. 2025 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Full Truck Alliance: Why Going Long At This Time Is Worth A Shot Full Truck Alliance Non-GAAP EPS of $0.14 in-line, revenue of $456.5M beats by $7.37M Full Truck Alliance Q4 2025 Earnings Preview
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. plans to spend C$3.7 billion ($2.7 billion) to acquire three gold projects in northern Finland, expanding the Canadian miner’s footprint in the Scandinavian country. The Toronto-based company will buy Rupert Resources Ltd. and Aurion Resources Ltd. , and separately purchase B2Gold Corp. ’s 70% stake in an exploration joint venture with Aurion, according to a statement on Mo...
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. plans to spend C$3.7 billion ($2.7 billion) to acquire three gold projects in northern Finland, expanding the Canadian miner’s footprint in the Scandinavian country. The Toronto-based company will buy Rupert Resources Ltd. and Aurion Resources Ltd. , and separately purchase B2Gold Corp. ’s 70% stake in an exploration joint venture with Aurion, according to a statement on Monday. The transactions are aimed at consolidating Agnico’s position Finland, where it already owns Kittila — Europe’s largest primary gold mine. The acquisition of Rupert Resources will add the Ikkari project to Agnico’s portfolio, while buying the Fingold joint venture from Aurion and B2Gold will deliver a large land package in the Central Lapland belt, an area the Canadian miner sees as highly prospective for exploration. Shares of Agnico fell as much as 3.3% in New York as markets opened on Monday. Read More: World No. 2 Gold Miner Is ‘Willing to Move’ on M&A, CEO Says The move follows comments earlier this year from Agnico Chief Executive Officer Ammar Al-Joundi that the company is “willing to move” on deal-making, marking a shift from its previous focus on growing output from existing mines. The company is now the world’s second-largest producer of gold, after surpassing Barrick Mining Corp. in last year’s output figures. Agnico says it expects to build a “multi‑decade gold production hub” in Finland capable of producing about 500,000 ounces annually, the company said on Monday. Integrating Ikkari with its Kittila mine will generate as much as $500 million in operating and development synergies, it added.
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs is pushing back on negative sentiment surrounding Apple ahead of its second-quarter earnings, arguing that the stock's recent underperformance reflects fears that do not match the company's underlying position.
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs is pushing back on negative sentiment surrounding Apple ahead of its second-quarter earnings, arguing that the stock's recent underperformance reflects fears that do not match the company's underlying position.
Lean hog futures closed Friday with contracts down a tick to 67 cents, as June was down $2.67 this week. Open interest was down 3,949 contracts on Friday. USDA’s national base hog price was reported at $90.28 on Friday afternoon, up 12 cents from the day prior. The CME Lean...
Lean hog futures closed Friday with contracts down a tick to 67 cents, as June was down $2.67 this week. Open interest was down 3,949 contracts on Friday. USDA’s national base hog price was reported at $90.28 on Friday afternoon, up 12 cents from the day prior. The CME Lean...
Live cattle futures closed Friday seeing some strength off the lows but closing down 22 to 87 cents. April was down $1.82 last week. Open interest was down 4,383 contracts on Friday. Cash trade has picked up this week, with $248 sales across the country, higher in the south but...
Live cattle futures closed Friday seeing some strength off the lows but closing down 22 to 87 cents. April was down $1.82 last week. Open interest was down 4,383 contracts on Friday. Cash trade has picked up this week, with $248 sales across the country, higher in the south but...