Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images " I can show, really precisely, that there are two warranted prices for a share. The one I prefer is based on such fundamentals as earnings and growth rates, but the bubble is rational in a certain sense. The expectation of growth produces the growth, which confirms the expectation; people will buy it because it went up. But once you are convinced that ...
Alistair Berg/DigitalVision via Getty Images " I can show, really precisely, that there are two warranted prices for a share. The one I prefer is based on such fundamentals as earnings and growth rates, but the bubble is rational in a certain sense. The expectation of growth produces the growth, which confirms the expectation; people will buy it because it went up. But once you are convinced that it is not growing anymore, nobody wants to hold a stock because it is overvalued. Everybody wants to get out, and it collapses beyond the fundamentals. " - Franco Modigliani, Nobel Laureate, March 2000 Preface Those of you who subscribe to ARP+ will most likely have read a version of this paper before, as it was published in ARP+ as a research paper in early September of last year (in a longer version). We obviously don’t provide the same level of detail in the Absolute Return Letter as we do in ARP+; however, if this letter sparks your interest, you can find it in our extensive ARP+ library. Why this paper? I decided to write this paper when Exhibit 1 was presented to me. The chart is admittedly a few months old, but an updated version wouldn’t tell a substantially different story. We all know how well the Magnificent 7 have performed in recent years, but, quite frankly, I was shocked to see how big the gap was vis-à-vis the other 493 names in the S&P 500. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 1: Performance of the Magnificent 7 vs. the remaining 493 in S&P 500 Lessons learnt One of the most important lessons I have learnt from a long career in finance is that busts don’t occur ‘just’ because valuations are rich. A bust shall require a catalyst of some sort, and, in the current boom, we haven’t had one yet. Equally importantly, nobody has a clue what the catalyst which will end this bull market will turn out to be. It will most likely happen sooner or later, though. Before going any further, allow me to make a couple of points. U.S. tech stocks are indee...
Getty Images Most freight and logistics stocks I’ve recently covered have shown a strong price recovery in the past two months despite macroeconomic headwinds. Even Marten Transport Ltd. enjoyed the uptrend despite its softer performance in recent quarters. I understand the optimistic reaction in line with the holiday season. Also, freight and logistics have a low cost of entry, so owners and driv...
Getty Images Most freight and logistics stocks I’ve recently covered have shown a strong price recovery in the past two months despite macroeconomic headwinds. Even Marten Transport Ltd. enjoyed the uptrend despite its softer performance in recent quarters. I understand the optimistic reaction in line with the holiday season. Also, freight and logistics have a low cost of entry, so owners and drivers may be attracted during good times. However, I still don’t think it deserves an upgrade at this point. Its most recent performance and valuation signal caution despite resilient fundamentals. Technicals are still generally bullish, but the weakening trend in the past three weeks has become visible. Q4 2025: Grappling With Recovery But Resilient Freight and logistics continue to experience softer market conditions amid inflationary pressures and tariff wars. Lower demand and volume, coupled with higher cost pressures, are affecting the operational strategies of many businesses. Even a player with a significant domestic footprint like Marten Transport Ltd. is not fully protected from these headwinds. However, you can see its attempts to fight back and protect its profitability. In Q4 2025, its operating revenue amounted to $210.1M , down by 8.8% YoY from $230.4M. It was also weaker than in my previous coverage with a more manageable YoY revenue decrease of 7.1%. With that, we cannot expect MRTN’s recovery in the near future. In fact, this was its weakest performance in three quarters. If we look at its operating metrics, the Truckload Segment remains the lifeblood of the operations, comprising over 50% of the revenue. Its Dedicated Segment showed the largest revenue decrease of over $10M or 13.7% YoY. Metrics (MRTN Q4 2025 Release ) On a lighter note, you can see some improvements in its operations. MRTN tries to be as flexible as possible to the current market dynamics. This helps it retain some pricing power. In the dedicated segment, its average revenue improved to $3,...
A 2023 victory over Italy in Rome was the last time Wales savoured that winning feeling in the Six Nations and while predictions the losing streak will end in Dublin on Friday are thin on the ground, Ireland forwards coach Paul O'Connell insists "we don't expose ourselves" to such discourse. Certainly, it's been another tough campaign for the Welsh who were whitewashed in the last two championship...
A 2023 victory over Italy in Rome was the last time Wales savoured that winning feeling in the Six Nations and while predictions the losing streak will end in Dublin on Friday are thin on the ground, Ireland forwards coach Paul O'Connell insists "we don't expose ourselves" to such discourse. Certainly, it's been another tough campaign for the Welsh who were whitewashed in the last two championships, while they look favourites for a third-straight wooden spoon with three defeats in their opening fixtures this year. However, O'Connell does not believe the outlook is as bleak for Steve Tandy's side as some predict, refusing to downplay the chances of their visitors who were minutes from victory against Scotland in their last outing. Still, the Irish approach remains the same, less concerned about what the opposition will bring and more about "getting excited to do our thing". "For sure, we focus on the opposition but less than we did in my playing days," the former Ireland captain told reporters on Tuesday. "There's real excitement about how we're going to play and perform, but having said that, Wales have excellent players and athletes, really good coaches. "You've seen hints of it over the last few months and I think Wales are going to get better and better, but for us, it's about our performance. "We're expecting a tough game, but we want to see us getting better at what we do."
Chewy Inc. (NYSE:CHWY) is one of the stocks with explosive growth potential. On February 24, Chewy announced the appointment of Chris Deppe as its new Chief Financial Officer. Deppe, who joined the company in 2022, previously served as Vice President of Supply Chain & Operations Finance and most recently headed all Corporate and Commercial Finance functions. His selection followed a rigorous searc...
Chewy Inc. (NYSE:CHWY) is one of the stocks with explosive growth potential. On February 24, Chewy announced the appointment of Chris Deppe as its new Chief Financial Officer. Deppe, who joined the company in 2022, previously served as Vice President of Supply Chain & Operations Finance and most recently headed all Corporate and Commercial Finance functions. His selection followed a rigorous search process involving several external candidates, with CEO Sumit Singh citing Deppe’s deep institutional knowledge, operational rigor, and proven track record in driving profitable growth as key factors in the decision. Before his tenure at Chewy, Deppe spent over 16 years in senior finance leadership roles at Amazon, focusing on global transportation, international logistics, and fulfillment operations. His extensive background includes leading large-scale cost-optimization and strategic-planning initiatives across complex global networks. Chewy (CHWY) Appoints Internal Veteran Chris Deppe as New Chief Financial Officer Photo by Reba Spike on Unsplash Deppe holds a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from Colorado State University, along with an MBA and a Master of Science in Finance from Indiana University. Following this appointment, interim Principal Financial Officer Will Billings will transition to the role of Chief Accounting Officer. Chewy Inc. (NYSE:CHWY), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the e-commerce business in the US. It offers pet food & treats, pet supplies & pet medications, and other pet-health products & services. While we acknowledge the potential of CHWY as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds Heading Into 2026 and 10 Best ...
日本邮政保险（Japan Post Insurance Co．）首席执行官表示，基于对日本央行进一步加息的预期，该公司计划出售所持的低收益率政府债券，并以收益率更高的债券替代。 作为日本最大的保险公司之一，截至去年年底，日本邮政保险持有价值50.35万亿日元（约合3，200亿美元）的证券资产。随着去年第四季度日本债券收益率飙升，其所持日本债券的预估亏损在截至去年底的三个月内扩大约30%，至4.39...
Cole Palmer was named the eighth‑best player in the world at the Ballon d'Or ceremony in September, but both data and the eye test indicate a dip in form. The 23-year-old is still regarded within Chelsea as "untouchable". Former head coach Enzo Maresca labelled him the club's "best player" while his successor Liam Rosenior has held multiple meetings with his star forward since taking charge. Howev...
Cole Palmer was named the eighth‑best player in the world at the Ballon d'Or ceremony in September, but both data and the eye test indicate a dip in form. The 23-year-old is still regarded within Chelsea as "untouchable". Former head coach Enzo Maresca labelled him the club's "best player" while his successor Liam Rosenior has held multiple meetings with his star forward since taking charge. However, even by the reigning PFA Young Player of the Year's own admission, Palmer is not yet operating at his fluid, brilliant best - with several mitigating factors contributing to that downturn. Firstly, as Professional Footballers' Association chief executive Maheta Molango said, the England forward has likely been suffering from burnout. "When I look at someone like Cole Palmer, that's three consecutive summers without a break," Molango said at the Financial Times Business of Football Summit. "People say he's a millionaire - yes, he is. But it doesn't give you an extra lung or an extra leg. I want to see Cole Palmer on the pitch because he's the one who makes me dream." Three years without a summer off saw him feature 112 times for club and country, with the addition of Club World Cup fixtures for Chelsea, the European Championship with England and the Under‑21 European Championship before that. Those managing him did not consider it a coincidence that as demands on Palmer increased, his fitness suffered. The forward began struggling with a painful, recurring groin issue at the end of last season. He had only partially recovered by December, returning after more than six weeks out, and Chelsea's medical team continue to monitor him closely. Asked by BBC Sport about Palmer's display following the 2–1 defeat away at Arsenal, Rosenior said: "He played 83 minutes. That was tactical. "When I took him and Enzo [Fernandez] off, they were both on yellow cards and I wanted Garna [Alejandro Garnacho] and Liam [Delap] to come on and give us freshness, which I felt they did. He's absol...
South African stocks’ record 12-month winning streak has further to go thanks to booming metals prices and the firmer rand, according to Bank of America Corp. The South African benchmark touched a fresh record high Monday, bolstered by gains in gold and silver after the US and Israel attacked Iran. While index pulled back as the session went on, it still outperformed the broader emerging markets g...
South African stocks’ record 12-month winning streak has further to go thanks to booming metals prices and the firmer rand, according to Bank of America Corp. The South African benchmark touched a fresh record high Monday, bolstered by gains in gold and silver after the US and Israel attacked Iran. While index pulled back as the session went on, it still outperformed the broader emerging markets gauge on the day. The country’s market is benefiting from a rare alignment of supportive global and domestic forces, particularly elevated metals prices and expectations of a weaker dollar, said BofA South Africa strategist John Morris . “We’re in a sweet spot,” he said in an interview. “You don’t often see this combination, and we still have runway.” The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index has surged 44% in the past year, with metals and mining stocks leading the advance . It’s gained each of the last 12 months, the longest such streak in records going back to 1995, and the benchmark’s 7% jump in February was the biggest monthly advance in more than two years. The commodity cycle could underpin markets for the next 12 to 15 months, said Morris. Gold has soared 86% in the past year while platinum is up 146%. “It’s the decade for resources; US inflation is elevated,” said Morris. “It feels like the ‘70s.” The hostilities in the Middle East don’t change his constructive view on the outlook for South Africa, he said, noting that precious metals prices were strong on Monday. The rand, which he views as undervalued, may also gain further, helping push bond yields lower and support banks and other domestic sectors, he said. The currency has strengthened about 15% against the dollar in the past year. High commodities mean a stronger rand, which bolsters South Africa’s domestic companies, said Morris. Financial and industrial shares could deliver meaningful returns as they catch up to miners, he said. Morris said South Africa’s latest budget “just supports the case” for investing in loc...