Interest-rate traders moved to price in a chance of a South African interest-rate hike later this month as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation. Forward-rate agreements are now anticipating a rate increase of six basis points at the March 26 policy meeting, or a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. As recently as Friday, they were pricing in almost a 30% ch...
Interest-rate traders moved to price in a chance of a South African interest-rate hike later this month as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, reviving concerns about inflation. Forward-rate agreements are now anticipating a rate increase of six basis points at the March 26 policy meeting, or a 24% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. As recently as Friday, they were pricing in almost a 30% chance of a quarter-point cut. The market is also less confident of monetary easing over the rest of the year. It’s now pricing in just 15 basis points of easing by year-end, compared with 39 basis points on Friday. Brent crude oil rose above $80 a barrel on Tuesday as the US and Israel stepped up their attacks against Iran. That risks pushing inflation in South Africa further away from the central bank’s 3% target. The weakening rand could add to price pressures. Policy makers “would most likely look through this if it’s a temporary shock, and not raise rates,” said Annabel Bishop chief economist at Investec Bank Ltd. Persistently higher inflation, however would force the central bank to tighten, though that is a “severe down case” scenario, she said. Read more: Iran War Oil Shock Threatens to Disrupt Africa’s Easing Cycle The rand extended declines on Tuesday, weakening 1.2% to 16.2937 per dollar as of 12:05 p.m. in Johannesburg. That brings its two-day drop to 2.2%.
Cargo ships anchored in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on March 2. Photo: VCG The escalating military confrontation among the U.S., Israel and Iran has disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, dealing a blow to cross-border e-commerce during Ramadan — one of the region’s busiest shopping months. Following U.S.-Israel military strikes on Saturday, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s m...
Cargo ships anchored in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on March 2. Photo: VCG The escalating military confrontation among the U.S., Israel and Iran has disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, dealing a blow to cross-border e-commerce during Ramadan — one of the region’s busiest shopping months. Following U.S.-Israel military strikes on Saturday, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, has nearly halted, while airspace closures in the Middle East have led to thousands of canceled flights. The disruption is already complicating inventory replenishment for cross-border sellers serving Gulf consumers, raising the prospect of stockouts if hostilities persist.
lnzyx/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis For those who have read my work on energy stocks in the past you might know me mostly from covering midstream and perhaps once in a while a downstream company for oil and gas. One of the areas I find particularly interesting now with the price of oil at a multi-year low is the upstream companies. In today's coverage of Northern Oil and Gas ( NOG ) we...
lnzyx/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis For those who have read my work on energy stocks in the past you might know me mostly from covering midstream and perhaps once in a while a downstream company for oil and gas. One of the areas I find particularly interesting now with the price of oil at a multi-year low is the upstream companies. In today's coverage of Northern Oil and Gas ( NOG ) we are looking at just this. What I like the most is that its business model is built upon owning the land and investing into non-operated working interests with the companies actually doing the drilling. It means NOG acts as a capital allocations fund in basic terms. On the other end of this, for the investor, it means reliable cash flows currently funding a very considerable dividend payout. With a yield of 6.5% on a FWD along with serious upside to shareholder returns if oil prices start rising, I think the stock looks like a Strong Buy right now. Stock Chart 5-Year Performance Stock Chart (Seeking Alpha) Over the past 5-years the stock hasn't perhaps had the most impressive development. Still up some 110% but with a lot of lost gains over the past 1 - 1.5 years, much because of falling commodity prices. Still though, the yield is at a strong rate of 6.5%. As I explained in the introduction, its business model is very similar to another company I’ve recently covered here called Texas Pacific Land Corporation ( TPL ). Both stocks have rallied in the past 1 or 2 months because of the prospects of data centers being built on their land , effectively because of the direct access to energy. One report has data centers ongoing operating costs consisting of about 40 - 60% electricity. Computing equipment of course is responsible for a large part of this, but what some might forget is the cooling system. This is the crucial factor that actually enables a site to have higher uptime. If systems are running too hot they depreciate faster in speed and efficiency. With rumours of Alpha...
Egypt’s pound weakened past the milestone of 50 per dollar, demonstrating investors’ fears over the prospect of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The currency fell by as much as 1.9% on Tuesday before paring some of its losses to trade at 50.005 a dollar by 12:38 p.m in Cairo. It’s the lowest level since June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. An emerging-markets currency index on Mo...
Egypt’s pound weakened past the milestone of 50 per dollar, demonstrating investors’ fears over the prospect of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The currency fell by as much as 1.9% on Tuesday before paring some of its losses to trade at 50.005 a dollar by 12:38 p.m in Cairo. It’s the lowest level since June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. An emerging-markets currency index on Monday posted its worst session since November 2024, as investors dumped risk assets and sought havens amid the widening war pitting the US and Israel against Iran. The Egyptian pound’s performance is a vivid display of the vulnerability of the country’s assets to turmoil across the broader Middle East, despite its distance from the Persian Gulf and status as a regional linchpin. Thanks to high inflation-adjusted interest rates, Egypt’s local debt has been a favorite with foreign carry-trade investors seeking lucrative returns. Bank of America on Monday said the pound may weaken amid portfolio outflows. There’s been no clear estimate on how debt investment may have exited. The pound has been closely watched by investors since authorities let it plummet 40% in March 2024 to tackle a chronic foreign-exchange shortage and secure an expanded International Monetary Fund program. Keeping a flexible exchange rate is one of the main targets of the Washington-based lender’s $8 billion loan pact. Bank of America said Egypt’s “external-financing picture remains tight,” although the IMF’s recent granting of about $2.3 billion in loans gives “near-term buffers.”
MMG Ltd. said profit more than tripled last year, buoyed by higher commodity prices and strong output at key mines, though still fell short of analyst estimates. The Chinese-owned mining company’s net income for 2025 reached $509 million, according to a filing , missing the $701 million consensus. It was the strongest annual profit since 2021. Copper prices strengthened in 2025, driven by robust d...
MMG Ltd. said profit more than tripled last year, buoyed by higher commodity prices and strong output at key mines, though still fell short of analyst estimates. The Chinese-owned mining company’s net income for 2025 reached $509 million, according to a filing , missing the $701 million consensus. It was the strongest annual profit since 2021. Copper prices strengthened in 2025, driven by robust demand for energy transition applications and accelerating development of artificial intelligence-related data centers, according to Chairman Cao Liang . “At the same time, precious metals continue to attract investment during periods of global uncertainty,” he said. The firm saw growth at the Las Bambas mine in Peru and Dugald River in Australia. Still, earnings were hurt by an impairment charge in its Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Fabless chip and software maker Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will be reporting results tomorrow after the bell. Here’s what you need to know. Broadcom beat analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $18.02 billion, up 28.2% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with a significant improvement in its inventory levels and revenue guidance for next quarter beati...
Fabless chip and software maker Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will be reporting results tomorrow after the bell. Here’s what you need to know. Broadcom beat analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $18.02 billion, up 28.2% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with a significant improvement in its inventory levels and revenue guidance for next quarter beating analysts’ expectations. Is Broadcom a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members. This quarter, the market is expecting Broadcom’s revenue to grow 28.8% year on year, improving from the 24.7% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Broadcom Total Revenue Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Broadcom rarely misses Wall Street’s revenue estimates. Looking at Broadcom’s peers in the processors and graphics chips segment, some have already reported their Q4 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Qorvo delivered year-on-year revenue growth of 8.4%, meeting analysts’ expectations, and AMD reported revenues up 34.1%, topping estimates by 6%. Qorvo traded down 6.8% following the results while AMD was also down 17.3%. Read our full analysis of Qorvo’s results here and AMD’s results here. Investors in the processors and graphics chips segment have had steady hands going into earnings, with share prices flat over the last month. Broadcom is down 6.4% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $454.43 (compared to the current share price of $309.96). When a company has more cash than it knows what to do with, buying back its own shares can make a lot of sense–as long as the price is right. Luckily, we’ve found one, a low-priced stock that is gushing free cash flow AND buying back shares. Click here to claim your Special F...
Sashkinw/iStock via Getty Images Investment thesis In spite of the continued growth of the AI industry and hyperscalers, prompted by the need to scale the computing power of network infrastructure, tech solutions are taking a back seat. Arguments are increasingly being made that the AI bubble is about to burst, resulting in a sharp decline in the shares of technology companies, such as Nebius Grou...
Sashkinw/iStock via Getty Images Investment thesis In spite of the continued growth of the AI industry and hyperscalers, prompted by the need to scale the computing power of network infrastructure, tech solutions are taking a back seat. Arguments are increasingly being made that the AI bubble is about to burst, resulting in a sharp decline in the shares of technology companies, such as Nebius Group N.V. ( NBIS ). Results from the Federal Reserve's stress test showed the possibility of a negative scenario in that the stock market's market capitalization could potentially fall by up to 54%. However, a basic scenario assumes a 4-year period of growth at an average annual rate of 4.3%, not exactly a strong bullish trend. CAPEX for the largest IT giants is expected to increase from $400 billion to $750 billion in 2026, primarily financed by long-term debt. Consequently, these tech companies are increasing their credit leverage, raising the risk of failure if projected demand falls short of expectations and the ROI on investments proves disappointing. In this article, I'm looking at the risks to the NBIS business model to see if they change the previous assessment of its high investment appeal. This company offers infrastructure services to solve problems related to computing power for AI, machine learning, and the cloud, showing how important it is for developing network infrastructure. The management team has set some ambitious goals and forecasts for 2026, meaning they'll keep aggressively scaling up NBIS's computing power. Considering the company's valuation and competitive role, any emerging risks and challenges may cause a short-term price correction, although it is unlikely to reverse the trend due to NBIS's high fundamental value in the modern architecture of cloud computing network infrastructure. Previous thesis Since my last publication on NBIS, share prices have fallen by 10.45%, falling by 13% last Friday. In line with my previous thesis, this company's stron...
BlindTurtle/iStock via Getty Images Humana Inc ( HUM ) is one of the largest managed care providers in the U.S. and a major player in the Medicare Advantage space, where it currently serves over 8.2 million members. Beyond insurance, the company owns CenterWell, the nation’s largest provider of senior-focused primary care, a vertical integration play designed to capture a bigger slice of the value...
BlindTurtle/iStock via Getty Images Humana Inc ( HUM ) is one of the largest managed care providers in the U.S. and a major player in the Medicare Advantage space, where it currently serves over 8.2 million members. Beyond insurance, the company owns CenterWell, the nation’s largest provider of senior-focused primary care, a vertical integration play designed to capture a bigger slice of the value chain. For much of the last decade, Humana was a reliable cash-generating machine, with its stock price reflecting its operational excellence. However, that upward trend broke in late 2023. A perfect storm of rising medical utilization and the catastrophic revelation that 4-STAR membership would plummet from 94% to just 25% for 2025 sent the stock into a downward spiral. Today, Humana finds itself at a crossroads. Management is trying to turn the ship around through STAR rating mitigation efforts, contract diversification and exiting, and the expansion of its CenterWell and Medicaid segments. The goal is clear: get the company back on track for bonous year 2028. Early efforts resulted in 45% of members in 4-STAR or higher plans in 2026. While the company recently guided for FY26 a 25% jump in MA membership and the opening o f 60 to 70 n ew CenterWell centers, the underlying profitability remains under extreme pressure. To add insult to injury, at the end of January, the managed care industry received more bad news when CMS issued the 2027 MA Advance Notice , proposing nearly flat reimbursement rates. While the rates are not set in stone yet, it clearly adds to the already numerous headwinds, pushing Humana’s turnaround further out. This introduction would usually put the company in the too risky pile, but at the right price and with a long-term view, Humana could be an attractive opportunity. By incorporating headwinds into assumptions about revenue growth, margins, and the discount rate, I arrive at a price of around $330, which makes the stock look cheap and presents a b...
Fabless chip and software maker Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will be reporting results tomorrow after the bell. Here’s what you need to know. Broadcom beat analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $18.02 billion, up 28.2% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with a significant improvement in its inventory levels and revenue guidance for next quarter beati...
Fabless chip and software maker Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will be reporting results tomorrow after the bell. Here’s what you need to know. Broadcom beat analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $18.02 billion, up 28.2% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with a significant improvement in its inventory levels and revenue guidance for next quarter beating analysts’ expectations. Is Broadcom a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members. This quarter, the market is expecting Broadcom’s revenue to grow 28.8% year on year, improving from the 24.7% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Broadcom rarely misses Wall Street’s revenue estimates. Looking at Broadcom’s peers in the processors and graphics chips segment, some have already reported their Q4 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Qorvo delivered year-on-year revenue growth of 8.4%, meeting analysts’ expectations, and AMD reported revenues up 34.1%, topping estimates by 6%. Qorvo traded down 6.8% following the results while AMD was also down 17.3%. Read our full analysis of Qorvo’s results here and AMD’s results here. Investors in the processors and graphics chips segment have had steady hands going into earnings, with share prices flat over the last month. Broadcom is down 6.4% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $454.43 (compared to the current share price of $309.96). P.S. STOP buying the AI stocks everyone's talking about. The real money? It’s in the profitable pick nobody’s watching yet. We’ve identified an AI profit machine that’s flying under Wall Street’s radar—for now. We can’t keep this research public forever—grab your FREE copy before we pull it offline...
superwaka/iStock via Getty Images By David McNay, CFA, Director, Global Investment Research and Alex Nae, M.Sc, Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research What happened? On 23rd January, Japan’s PM, Sanae Takaichi, triggered a snap general election, aiming to leverage her high approval ratings to increase the LDP–Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) coalition’s thin majority. Betting mark...
superwaka/iStock via Getty Images By David McNay, CFA, Director, Global Investment Research and Alex Nae, M.Sc, Quantitative Research Analyst, Global Investment Research What happened? On 23rd January, Japan’s PM, Sanae Takaichi, triggered a snap general election, aiming to leverage her high approval ratings to increase the LDP–Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) coalition’s thin majority. Betting markets anticipated a victory, but not the landslide by which Takaichi won. The LDP won 316 of 465 seats, taking the coalition total to 352 and giving Takaichi a supermajority, the first held by a single party in 40 years, and the largest electoral share in Japan’s postwar history. Over 2-week 1 post election, the FTSE Japan index gained 3.79% in USD terms, while the 10Y bond yield lowered to around 2.08% (from 2.24% prior to election results), and the yen strengthened by 0.84% against the USD. 2 What does having a supermajority mean? A supermajority in Japan is more than a superlative – it provides two tangible benefits. Right of veto over the Upper House, which the coalition does not control. For a bill to become law, it must pass in both houses of the Diet. A supermajority allows Takaichi to override 3 Upper House rejections, reducing the gap between policy intent and execution by reducing political friction. Initiate constitutional change. From a markets perspective, this is mostly ceremonial – except with regards to defence which is politically salient. What might she do with it? Aggressive fiscal expansion without dilution The FY 2026 draft budget submitted to the Diet 4 is a record ¥122.3 trillion but is yet to be voted on. A supermajority reduces the risk of Upper House obstruction and minimizes the risk of dilution; Takaichi aims for the budget to be passed by 31st March, the end of the Japanese fiscal year. More significant may be what comes next. Limited legislative friction provides scope to increase fiscal support through supplementary budgets – potentially expandi...