Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) is trading at its most conservative valuation in years, hovering around a 25.2x forward P/E ratio, almost 20% lower than the 5-year average of 31.3x. Many analysts across both Wall Street and Seeking Alpha are considering this a generational buying opportunity—53 out of 56 Wall Street analysts in the last 90 days rate MSFT a Buy or Strong Bu...
Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) is trading at its most conservative valuation in years, hovering around a 25.2x forward P/E ratio, almost 20% lower than the 5-year average of 31.3x. Many analysts across both Wall Street and Seeking Alpha are considering this a generational buying opportunity—53 out of 56 Wall Street analysts in the last 90 days rate MSFT a Buy or Strong Buy. While many consider MSFT an excellent opportunity at the current valuation, I hold a contrarian view and consider MSFT to be a value trap. I am initiating coverage on MSFT with a Sell rating because of a high disruption risk to MSFT's software segment from agentic AI and a dangerous over-reliance on OpenAI ( OPENAI ), wherein the negative effects of this partnership are brought to light when looking at the dynamics of CapEx spending, revenue quality, and revenue backlog. Background Seeking Alpha MSFT's drawdown reached a staggering -35.9% from its 52-week high to its 52-week low. This drawdown was caused by a variety of factors: persistent conflict in the Middle East weighing on global risk appetite, reports of a hiring freeze across MSFT's cloud sales groups, and, most crucially, a 66% year-over-year surge in CapEx, much of which is tied to OpenAI. MSFT has since rebounded +17% since its 52-week lows. MSFT's fiscal second-quarter 2026 results revealed $37.5 billion in capital spending , primarily directed at the buildout of data centers and the procurement of high-end GPUs to support its Azure AI workloads. For the full fiscal year 2026, Microsoft is on pace to deploy between $110 billion and $120 billion in capital. The underlying concern is that MSFT is building a bridge to nowhere if the software layer does not monetize as rapidly as the hardware depreciates. While Azure continues to grow at a headline rate of 39%, the market is increasingly focused on the return on hardware rather than raw revenue growth. Anthropic Dominance The most significant threat to MSFT's lon...
Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) is trading at its most conservative valuation in years, hovering around a 25.2x forward P/E ratio, almost 20% lower than the 5-year average of 31.3x. Many analysts across both Wall Street and Seeking Alpha are considering this a generational buying opportunity—53 out of 56 Wall Street analysts in the last 90 days rate MSFT a Buy or Strong Bu...
Getty Images Introduction Microsoft Corporation ( MSFT ) is trading at its most conservative valuation in years, hovering around a 25.2x forward P/E ratio, almost 20% lower than the 5-year average of 31.3x. Many analysts across both Wall Street and Seeking Alpha are considering this a generational buying opportunity—53 out of 56 Wall Street analysts in the last 90 days rate MSFT a Buy or Strong Buy. While many consider MSFT an excellent opportunity at the current valuation, I hold a contrarian view and consider MSFT to be a value trap. I am initiating coverage on MSFT with a Sell rating because of a high disruption risk to MSFT's software segment from agentic AI and a dangerous over-reliance on OpenAI ( OPENAI ), wherein the negative effects of this partnership are brought to light when looking at the dynamics of CapEx spending, revenue quality, and revenue backlog. Background Seeking Alpha MSFT's drawdown reached a staggering -35.9% from its 52-week high to its 52-week low. This drawdown was caused by a variety of factors: persistent conflict in the Middle East weighing on global risk appetite, reports of a hiring freeze across MSFT's cloud sales groups, and, most crucially, a 66% year-over-year surge in CapEx, much of which is tied to OpenAI. MSFT has since rebounded +17% since its 52-week lows. MSFT's fiscal second-quarter 2026 results revealed $37.5 billion in capital spending , primarily directed at the buildout of data centers and the procurement of high-end GPUs to support its Azure AI workloads. For the full fiscal year 2026, Microsoft is on pace to deploy between $110 billion and $120 billion in capital. The underlying concern is that MSFT is building a bridge to nowhere if the software layer does not monetize as rapidly as the hardware depreciates. While Azure continues to grow at a headline rate of 39%, the market is increasingly focused on the return on hardware rather than raw revenue growth. Anthropic Dominance The most significant threat to MSFT's lon...
blackdovfx Chinese regulators intend to curb technology companies, including some major AI pioneers, from accepting U.S. capital without government approval, part of China's broader response to Meta Platforms' ( META ) acquisition of startup Manus, Bloomberg News reported. In recent weeks, agencies including the National Development and Reform Commission told several private firms they should reje...
blackdovfx Chinese regulators intend to curb technology companies, including some major AI pioneers, from accepting U.S. capital without government approval, part of China's broader response to Meta Platforms' ( META ) acquisition of startup Manus, Bloomberg News reported. In recent weeks, agencies including the National Development and Reform Commission told several private firms they should reject capital of U.S. origin in funding rounds unless explicitly approved, the report added , citing people with knowledge of the matter. Moonshot AI, which is considering an IPO, was among those that received the guidance from the state planner. Another Chinese startup StepFun got similar instructions, the report noted. Regulators have also decided on similar restrictions for TikTok-parent ByteDance ( BDNCE ). The regulators do not want the Beijing-based company, which also operates popular AI chatbots, to approve secondary share sales to U.S. investors without government approval, the report added. ByteDance did not immediately respond to Seeking Alpha's request for comment. The new curbs are broadly aimed at preventing U.S. investors from taking stakes in sensitive sectors where national security is a priority, according to the report. The move follows Meta's acquisition of Manus, which was announced in December last year. Following the announcement, Beijing reportedly started reviewing the $2B acquisition earlier this year. Last month, Chinese authorities reportedly barred two Manus co-founders from leaving the country. The commission — a powerful state planning agency with broad policy-making powers — is now heading a multi-agency investigation which includes the Ministry of Commerce, into the deal and its repercussions. The new curbs also follow China's decision to restrict "red chips" — a type of Chinese company incorporated overseas — from seeking IPOs in Hong Kong, threatening a measure used by Chinese companies to access foreign capital by floating overseas, the repo...
What the new Google partnership means for Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) is drawing attention after SiriusXM Media was named the exclusive U.S. representative for YouTube audio advertising inventory, giving brands a single point of access to large scale audio ad buying. See our latest analysis for Sirius XM Holdings. The Google partnership headlines come as SIRI’s share price ...
What the new Google partnership means for Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) is drawing attention after SiriusXM Media was named the exclusive U.S. representative for YouTube audio advertising inventory, giving brands a single point of access to large scale audio ad buying. See our latest analysis for Sirius XM Holdings. The Google partnership headlines come as SIRI’s share price has moved sharply higher, with a 7 day share price return of 13.22% and a 30 day gain of 25.22%...
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday: Evercore ISI upgrades Intel to outperform from in line Evercore upgraded the stock following earnings on Thursday. "Improved Execution: INTC's new CEO fixed the balance sheet, and is executing on a strategy that appears to have put INTC back on the competitive track..." Needham upgrades Maxlinear to buy from hold Needham said the radio frequency...
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Friday: Evercore ISI upgrades Intel to outperform from in line Evercore upgraded the stock following earnings on Thursday. "Improved Execution: INTC's new CEO fixed the balance sheet, and is executing on a strategy that appears to have put INTC back on the competitive track..." Needham upgrades Maxlinear to buy from hold Needham said the radio frequency and semiconductor products company is at an "inflection point." "MXL reported a 1Q26 beat, and guided 2Q26 well above Street expectations due to Data Center related demand." Guggenheim initiates Shake Shack as buy The firm said it sees profit growth for the burger chain. "We are initiating coverage on Shake Shack with a Buy rating and $120 price target." Wedbush initiates Oracle as outperform Wedbush said the "market is fundamentally misinterpreting the company's aggressive, contract-backed investment cycle as speculative risk." "We are initiating coverage on Oracle with an OUTPERFORM rating and a $225 price target." Read more. Morgan Stanley upgrades Phillips 66 to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said the oil and gas company is attractive. "Upgrade PSX t o OW on chems upside & attractive relative valuation." Stephens initiates Rocket Companies as overweight Stephens said shares of the mortgage company have plenty more room to run. "We see RKT (OW-PT$22.50) best positioned, naturally hedged between Originations/Servicing, ultimately generating consistent, consolidated growth and multiples rerating positively." JPMorgan initiates Hims & Hers as overweight JPMorgan said it sees room for growth. "We're initiating coverage of HIMS with an Overweight rating and $35 December 2026 price target." TD Cowen reiterates Apple as buy TD Cowen said it's bullish ahead of Apple earnings next week. "AAPL stock sentiment is positive ahead of results given healthy iPhone 17 adoption, smartphone market share gains despite memory supply dynamics, and optimism around the new AI Siri...
A top McKinsey & Co. consultant who advises on defense projects around the world has for years owned a personal stake in German military tech startup Helsing . David Chinn — currently a McKinsey senior partner in Tel Aviv — backed Helsing just months after its founding in early 2021, according to German corporate registry documents. He bought preferred shares of Helsing as part of a capital increa...
A top McKinsey & Co. consultant who advises on defense projects around the world has for years owned a personal stake in German military tech startup Helsing . David Chinn — currently a McKinsey senior partner in Tel Aviv — backed Helsing just months after its founding in early 2021, according to German corporate registry documents. He bought preferred shares of Helsing as part of a capital increase in July that year, investing around the same time as early big backers such as Spotify Technology SA founder Daniel Ek ’s investment firm Prima Materia, the filings show. Since making his investment, Chinn has mentioned Helsing positively on social media and in an article on McKinsey’s website. Neither disclosed his connection to Helsing, whose co-founders include an ex-McKinsey partner and a former video game entrepreneur. Chinn has held onto the investment and became a shareholder in a new Helsing holding company formed through a reorganization last year, registry documents show. Chinn, 59, has spent decades advising senior government officials, military leaders and national security agencies on issues ranging from multibillion-dollar armed forces modernization efforts to the revival of European defense, according to a recent biography and McKinsey’s website . Helsing has won contracts to supply its artificial intelligence-powered attack drones for use by Germany and Ukraine. McKinsey allows staff to make private investments, subject to disclosure requirements where there is a real or perceived conflict of interest, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Helsing isn’t a client of the consulting firm, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. “This matter is under review through our established processes,” a spokesperson for McKinsey said in a statement in response to Bloomberg queries. “We take our conflict-of-interest and disclosure obligations extremely seriously, and have explicit policies governing each, that are t...