JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images General Motors ( GM )’s published higher-than-expected earnings and revenues for the first quarter on resilient pickup truck sales in North America as well as a favorable ruling with regard to tariffs. The Supreme Court ruling specifically allowed the automaker to increase its FY 2026 guidance for adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS... despite an expected hea...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images General Motors ( GM )’s published higher-than-expected earnings and revenues for the first quarter on resilient pickup truck sales in North America as well as a favorable ruling with regard to tariffs. The Supreme Court ruling specifically allowed the automaker to increase its FY 2026 guidance for adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS... despite an expected headwinds resulting from the war with Iran in the Middle East. While General Motors projects to see higher cost inflation, I believe the investment setup is still very much robust, given the automaker’s strong free cash flow and continual strength in U.S.-driven ICE demand. The EV division incurred a $1.0B non-cash impairment charge in the first quarter, which was a headwind to earnings, but the general constitution of General Motors is strong. Shares of General Motors are very attractively valued -- trading at a near-18% earnings yield -- and I expect the automaker to reach new all-time highs in 2026. Data by YCharts Previous rating I recommended General Motors in January on the back of strong selling momentum for Chevrolet-branded sport utility vehicles as well as robust free cash flow guidance for FY 2026. The guidance for FCF also indicated at the time that the automaker was headed for a significant capital return as well, creating upside in the share price: A Strong Buy Despite All-Time Highs . In the most recent quarter, General Motors raised its guidance for adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS amid a favorable ruling on tariffs and robust growth in its core ICE division. I see GM as a long-term investment with potential for accelerating capital returns -- both stock buybacks and a higher dividend -- mainly because of the strong profitability of its U.S. auto business. Profitable U.S. business with growing earnings and margins supports value proposition General Motors beat expectations for the first quarter on both the bottom and the top line: the automaker published $3.70 pe...
“我不记得上一次手动修改 AI 的输出，是什么时候了。” 在红杉 AI 2026 大会的现场，Andrej Karpathy 说这句话时，语气很平静。一个写了十几年代码的人，开始不需要改工具的输出了。 过去一年，大多数人对 AI 的理解，仍停留在“它是一个更快的工具”。但这场峰会所传递的信号，不是效率的提升，而是规则的改写。 什么样的规则？ 怎么做事，谁来做事，以及为什么做事的规则。 接下来的四年...
“我不记得上一次手动修改 AI 的输出，是什么时候了。” 在红杉 AI 2026 大会的现场，Andrej Karpathy 说这句话时，语气很平静。一个写了十几年代码的人，开始不需要改工具的输出了。 过去一年，大多数人对 AI 的理解，仍停留在“它是一个更快的工具”。但这场峰会所传递的信号，不是效率的提升，而是规则的改写。 什么样的规则？ 怎么做事，谁来做事，以及为什么做事的规则。 接下来的四年，可能比过去十年的变化都要剧烈。 第一节｜做事方式彻底换了 在那场对话中，Andrej Karpathy 说：两三年前我们写代码，是在一行一行地规定机器该怎么做；现在很多时候，你只需要把目标讲清楚，模型自己就会把路径走完。 软件的底层范式变了。 过去，软件是明确规则的集合，人负责把每一步写清楚。后来进入机器学习时代，人不再手写规则，通过海量数据去训练模型。而现在，大语言模型让“不动手”成为现实：你只需要提供上下文和指令，让一个全能的解释器去完成整段工作。 表面上看，这只是一种效率的加速。但真正颠覆的地方在于，中间层被拿掉了。 他用自己做过的一个项目举例。为了让用户拍下菜单就能看到菜品长什么样，他曾经写过一个完整的应用：先识别文字，再调用图像模型，最后将结果重新排版展现。这是最典型的软件工程思路，把复杂问题分解成若干步骤，再逐一实现。 但后来他发现，把照片直接扔给最新的模型，附上一句指令，它就可以直接在原图上生成结果。没有中间的应用，没有那一整套冗长的流程。 传统的软件设计思路是这样的：我有一个功能需求，所以我需要搭建一套实现路径。这套路径本身，就是企业的护城河。用户之所以为你的产品买单，很大程度上是因为你把这条路径做得更流畅、更稳定，或者成本更低。 但当模型能力足够强大时，这套路径本身就不再稀缺了。用户要的从来都不是一个做图片标注的应用，他们真正要的只是看到这道菜长什么样。一旦结果能被直接生成，那些围绕怎么实现建立起来的产品，存在的理由就要被重新审视。 首当其冲的，是那些核心价值在于格式转换的工具。各种文档转换服务、数据清洗工具、格式适配层，它们过去解决的是系统看不懂原始文件的问题。但当模型能够直接理解原始输入时，这些中间转换的环节就变成了多余的步骤。 同样，低代码平台的一部分核心价值也在被重新定义。它们原本的使命是降低分解步骤的门槛。但如果未来做事的方式，本身就从分解步骤...
Earnings Call Insights: Carvana (CVNA) Q1 2026 Management View “The first quarter was another outstanding quarter for Carvana. It was another quarter full of records, including a record 187,000 cars sold in a single quarter, a record GAAP operating income of $581 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $672 million.” (CEO Ernest Garcia) “In the fourth quarter, we hit a bump in recon that gave us ano...
Earnings Call Insights: Carvana (CVNA) Q1 2026 Management View “The first quarter was another outstanding quarter for Carvana. It was another quarter full of records, including a record 187,000 cars sold in a single quarter, a record GAAP operating income of $581 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $672 million.” (CEO Ernest Garcia) “In the fourth quarter, we hit a bump in recon that gave us another chance to prove that we assembled just such a team.” (CEO Garcia) He described new reconditioning initiatives including “additional data integrations,” tools to improve staffing and paint-line flow, and “a productivity tracker,” adding: “So far in April, we are operating just shy of our all-time best in labor efficiency throughout the network.” (CEO Garcia) “We remain firmly on the path of achieving our mission of changing the way people buy and sell cars and in selling 3 million cars per year to 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2030 to 2035.” (CEO Garcia) “Q1 was a strong quarter, driven by our team's continued focus on profitable growth and strong execution.” (CFO Mark Jenkins) He also highlighted balance sheet progress: “In Q1, we again reduced our net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio to 1.1x, our strongest financial position ever.” (CFO Jenkins) Outlook “Looking toward Q2 and assuming the environment remains stable, we expect a sequential increase in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA, leading to all-time company records on both metrics.” (CFO Mark Jenkins) “We remain on track to deliver significant growth in both retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA in full year 2026.” (CFO Jenkins) Management framed Q2 unit economics around GPU headwinds/tailwinds: “Looking ahead to Q2, we expect retail GPU to increase sequentially, but to decrease year-over-year due to approximately $100 of tariff-related benefits last year, lower shipping fees and higher non-vehicle costs this year and approximately $100 to $200 of impact from narrower industry-wide whole...
Banks that recently signed a $40 billion bridge loan with SoftBank Group Corp. for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI have attracted more lenders to the deal in syndication, people familiar with the matter said. At least eight banks had submitted commitments as sub-underwriters as of late last week, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. It’s common...
Banks that recently signed a $40 billion bridge loan with SoftBank Group Corp. for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI have attracted more lenders to the deal in syndication, people familiar with the matter said. At least eight banks had submitted commitments as sub-underwriters as of late last week, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. It’s common for the initial lenders on a deal to distribute loans to a broader group. HSBC Holdings Plc. , BNP Paribas SA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA. are among the new joiners, the people said. The development came just days before the Wall Street Journal reported this week that OpenAI had missed internal revenue and user-growth targets, including a goal of reaching one billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025. Banks joining the loan are providing financial support for SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son ’s push into artificial intelligence, even as risks grow. S&P Global Ratings last month lowered the company’s credit outlook, citing the danger that its investments in OpenAI may hurt its liquidity. That was after SoftBank committed an additional $30 billion to OpenAI after having previously put in more than that amount. In the latest sign of the group’s AI ambitions, the Financial Times reported that SoftBank plans to establish and float a standalone AI robotics and data center company called Roze in the US. The Japanese investment firm aims to list Roze as soon as this year at a targeted valuation of $100 billion, according to the FT. SoftBank Seeks $10 Billion Loan Backed by OpenAI Shares SoftBank Secures Record $40 Billion Bridge Loan for OpenAI Stake SoftBank Pays Record 8.5% on Part of $3.6 Billion Bond Sale As traders across markets weigh SoftBank’s drive deeper into AI, some are focusing more on the opportunities while others put more weight on the risks. The company’s shares are up 22% this year. In contrast, credit-default swaps—which can be used to hedge against risks...
SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images Since My Last Coverage When I, in January of this year, said how CVR Partners ( UAN ) should be on every investor's radar, I meant it. The unit price has done very well and provided a strong amount of alpha against what the S&P 500 has done so far this year. With the last earnings report just recently coming out, it seemed like no better time than now to do another ...
SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images Since My Last Coverage When I, in January of this year, said how CVR Partners ( UAN ) should be on every investor's radar, I meant it. The unit price has done very well and provided a strong amount of alpha against what the S&P 500 has done so far this year. With the last earnings report just recently coming out, it seemed like no better time than now to do another coverage on UAN. Since Last Coverage (Seeking Alpha) The macro environment still looks strong, with no immediate data point showing that prices might decline in the near term. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing up prices, but countries starting to hoard fertilizers to build up reserves is having a positive impact on pricing as well. The operating model that CVR has enables it to more easily target exactly which commodity to sell depending on the market price and what feedstock input costs are as well. This versatility was part of why I initially rated it a Strong Buy, and is still a part of why I continue to maintain this rating. Quick Notes On Taxes And The Business Model Instead of receiving a 1099-DIV form for tax purposes, investors would receive a K-1 form instead, which typically arrives later and requires more individual work. Most of the distributions are also considered returns of capital, which can reduce the base cost per unit, eventually reaching $0 as time goes on. Because this is tax-deferred, it instead reduces your base cost. I’ve already talked about the tax implications and the business model in my first coverage, so to speed things up, I’ve just included a small quote here rather than reiterate the same things again. Tax implications are especially important to consider. My stance is that MLPs like UAN are investments for the long term and not something you trade in the short term. UAN has a very interesting operating structure in that there are two facilities, but it has a choice between which type of end product it makes. For those who a...
US May Deploy Hypersonic Missiles Against Iran As Centcom Set To Brief Trump On New Military Options US Central Command has asked to send the Army’s long-delayed Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, seeking a longer-range system to hit ballistic-missile launchers deep inside the country Bloomberg reports . If approved, this would mark the first time the U...
US May Deploy Hypersonic Missiles Against Iran As Centcom Set To Brief Trump On New Military Options US Central Command has asked to send the Army’s long-delayed Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, seeking a longer-range system to hit ballistic-missile launchers deep inside the country Bloomberg reports . If approved, this would mark the first time the US will have deployed its hypersonic missile, which is running far behind schedule and hasn’t been declared fully operational even as Russia and China have deployed their own versions. And since Trump isn't shy when it comes demonstrating force, it is unlikely that the request will be denied. The military's Request for Forces submission reportedly justifies the move by saying Iran has moved its launchers out of range of the Precision Strike Missile, a weapon that can hit targets at more than 300 miles. If approved, the deployment would also send a signal to Russia and China that the US is finally able to match a capability that they’ve long since mastered. Dark Eagle, also known as the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon, or LRHW, has a reported range of more than 1,725 miles, although its exact capabilities are secret. It is designed to glide to its target at more than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver to avoid interception. The missile was designed to fight Chinese or Russian advanced air defenses. The problem is that each Lockheed Martin missile costs about $15 million, and there are no more than eight missiles, so any assault using hypersonics would be rather brief. Also, since each battery will cost about $2.7 billion, according to the Government Accountability Office, they will make attractive targets for Iran's own hypersonics. The US already transferred most of its supplies of the stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missile, also designed for a fight with a near-peer adversary, to the Iran fight. About 1,100 of the missiles have been fired so far in the conflict. The US h...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of Mattel ( MAT ) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing about 5% of their value in what has been a solid bull market. The toymaker struggled in 2026 with tariffs, given the significant reliance on imports across the sector. A weaker-than-expected holiday season and downbeat guidance sent shares plunging earlier this year. In Q1, th...
JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of Mattel ( MAT ) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing about 5% of their value in what has been a solid bull market. The toymaker struggled in 2026 with tariffs, given the significant reliance on imports across the sector. A weaker-than-expected holiday season and downbeat guidance sent shares plunging earlier this year. In Q1, the company reported a surprise profit, but there were some unique drivers. I last covered Mattel in January , rating the stock a “buy,” on expectations for acceleration in 2026. That has been one of my worst calls, with shares down 26%. Given that underperformance and with updated financials, now is a good time to revisit MAT. Seeking Alpha In the company’s first quarter , Mattel earned $0.20, which was $0.41 better than feared, as revenue grew 4% to $862 million. Mattel reported an adjusted operating loss of $70 million, $62 million worse than a year ago. It is highly unusual for a company to report positive EPS when reporting an operating loss. During the quarter, it acquired the rest of the Mattel163 game studio that it did not already own, and the accounting of this led to a $148 million gain on its own 50% stake. Absent this, EPS would be -$0.20, more in line with consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was -$12 million, a $69 million swing from last year. This was primarily because adjusted gross margins declined 450 bps to 45.1%. Tariffs and cost inflation were the primary drivers of this weakening, and going forward, the tariff comparison will be much easier. Mattel As we lap last year’s tariffs, the year-over-year impact lessens. Beyond this, there is substantial question as to what the 2026 effective tariff rate will be given the Supreme Court’s overruling of reciprocal tariffs. While there are temporary tariffs being put in place, I expect the tariff load for toys to be less going forward than it was previously, a tailwind to margins. Offsetting this, oil is an input into plas...