Giuliano Benzin/iStock via Getty Images I previously rated Roku, Inc. ( ROKU ) as a Buy in February 2026, discussing how their razor-and-blade model drove excellent user acquisition trends and the consequently robust platform monetization across advertising/subscription. In this article, I shall discuss why I am cautiously downgrading ROKU as a Hold here, attributed to the outsized rally already t...
Giuliano Benzin/iStock via Getty Images I previously rated Roku, Inc. ( ROKU ) as a Buy in February 2026, discussing how their razor-and-blade model drove excellent user acquisition trends and the consequently robust platform monetization across advertising/subscription. In this article, I shall discuss why I am cautiously downgrading ROKU as a Hold here, attributed to the outsized rally already triggering the minimal margin of safety to my long-term price target. ROKU Delivers Improved Ad Monetization Trends ROKU 1Y Stock Price (Trading View) Since my last Buy rating, ROKU has delivered an outsized stock price return of +32.8% compared to the wider market at +5.7%, with a similar rally also observed in its streaming peers in varying degrees. 1. Growing CTV Demand & Advertising Opportunities Much of their tailwinds are attributed to the growing streaming viewing share at 48% in February 2026 (+4.5 points YoY), with the changing viewer trend also contributing to the increased allocation of ad funding to CTV platforms: 70% of US advertisers plan to boost connected TV (CTV) investments by an average of 17% in 2026, with the majority of funding reallocated from linear TV, digital display, paid search, and social media, per a study commissioned by Premion . ( eMarketer ) This trend is likely to persist over the next few years as well, with eMarketer expecting the CTV advertising spend to grow from $32B in 2025 to $46.9B in 2028, expanding at a 3Y CAGR of +13.5%. These developments matter indeed, since FQ1'26 marks the first quarter that ROKU breaks out their advertising revenues (to be further discussed in the next segment), with it perhaps implying the management's multi-pronged growth initiatives beyond the prior hardware and subscription strategies. For example, ROKU previously announced an integration with Amazon's ( AMZN ) Demand Side Platform [DSP] in June 2025 and another integration with Google's ( GOOG ) Display & Video 360 DSP in March 2026, with it notably exp...
ismagilov/iStock via Getty Images Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index, continued to show strong momentum in the first quarter of 2026, as energy prices rallied in the face of a major supply disruption while all five subsectors (Precious Metals, Energy, Agriculture, Livestock, and Industrial Metals) showed positive performance during the quarter. Market Review Com...
ismagilov/iStock via Getty Images Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index, continued to show strong momentum in the first quarter of 2026, as energy prices rallied in the face of a major supply disruption while all five subsectors (Precious Metals, Energy, Agriculture, Livestock, and Industrial Metals) showed positive performance during the quarter. Market Review Commodities delivered a volatile but strong start to 2026, with the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index rising +24.4% in the first quarter. 1 Energy markets led performance, with the Bloomberg Energy Subindex rallying +58.6% due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which raised immediate concerns about global supply disruption. 2 Both crude oil and refined products, such as Gas Oil and Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel, moved sharply higher as the physical market tightened significantly, with natural gas lagging due to the limited impact from the crisis and seasonal factors. 3 Both precious and industrial metals began the year on strong footing, supported by the dovish U.S. monetary policy outlook and the favorable macro environment. However, gains reversed later in the quarter, as higher energy prices pushed back Federal Reserve easing expectations and added to global economic growth concerns. Aluminum outperformed copper and other industrial metals on the back of gulf export disruptions, while gold and silver ended the quarter higher despite both correcting from their January peaks. Agriculture commodities moved higher later in the quarter, supported in part by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising fertilizer supply concerns and transportation constraints provided tailwinds for the sector, while key crops including soybean oil, soybeans, and cotton rallied on speculation they could be included in U.S. trade deals. Cattle prices also continued to rise, supported by resilient demand amid the smallest U.S. cow herd since 1951. 4 Fund Performance & Attribution COMD returned +9...
Just_Super/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis On April 27, it was announced that Marvell Technology ( MRVL ) was severing ties with POET Technologies ( POET ), which prompted me to update my valuation of the company a couple of hours later. No doubt, emotions were running high regarding my grievances against POET's management, since the phrase "breach of confidential information" immediatel...
Just_Super/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis On April 27, it was announced that Marvell Technology ( MRVL ) was severing ties with POET Technologies ( POET ), which prompted me to update my valuation of the company a couple of hours later. No doubt, emotions were running high regarding my grievances against POET's management, since the phrase "breach of confidential information" immediately made me think it referred to the CFO's recent interview with a YouTube channel. I should note, though, this is just speculation, since there's no hard evidence that this is the actual reason. Inside the press release itself, they don't mention a specific reason or incident that led to the breach of confidential information. We might not find out until the quarterly report, and it might even remain a mystery for a long time. POET's flagship product , called Blazar, consists of a ready-to-use optical module capable of operating at 1.6 THz. This module is designed as a single small chip and is one of the world's first prototype devices capable of combining the advantages of electronics and photonics in a single unit. Such technology is, by all accounts, truly unique and capable of boosting the performance of computing systems that incorporate Marvell's custom chips. Thanks to its previous collaboration with the Celestial AI team, POET's product has already been adapted for integration into the Marvell ecosystem, whose focus is on leveraging new photonic technologies to develop next-generation custom chips. Since Marvell's ambitions remain unchanged following the acquisition of Celestial AI, further acquisition of POET would allow them to be fulfilled. However, based on the facts, it is now clear that the likelihood of this is minimal. On the date the press release was issued, it occurred to me that this deal had already been discussed. As the POET CFO's remarks on the evening of April 21 triggered a massive surge in market capitalization (to a record high since 2014), it cou...
Earnings Call Insights: Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN) Q1 2026 Management view "For the quarter, total revenue grew 15%, driven by organic revenue growth of 11.8% and contributions from M&A" (Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan). "We also repurchased $40 million of our stock" (Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan). "We continue to operate in one of the most volatile and reactive i...
Earnings Call Insights: Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN) Q1 2026 Management view "For the quarter, total revenue grew 15%, driven by organic revenue growth of 11.8% and contributions from M&A" (Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan). "We also repurchased $40 million of our stock" (Founder & Executive Chairman Patrick Ryan). "We continue to operate in one of the most volatile and reactive insurance markets I've ever witnessed" and "we now expect more tempered growth in 2026" (Founder & Executive Chairman Ryan). "We have announced a onetime option grant program in the second quarter, funded entirely by a portion of my own holdings" and "It is structured to be neutral to the company's outstanding share count" (Founder & Executive Chairman Ryan). "Rates continue to decline with large and cat-exposed accounts down 25% to 35%" and "we're anticipating more moderate casualty growth in 2026" (CEO Timothy Turner). "We are making significant and responsible investments in AI leadership and infrastructure" and "AI-enabled and automated submission processing has reduced turnaround times from approximately 24 hours to under 2 hours" (CEO Turner). "In Q1, total revenue grew to $795 million" and "Adjusted EBITDA grew 15.7% to $232 million" (Executive VP & CFO Janice Hamilton). Outlook "For the full year, we are now guiding to organic revenue growth in the mid-single digits" (Executive VP & CFO Hamilton). "As of today, we are assuming Q2 organic growth to be near 0, with the biggest uncertainty being how property trends play out" (Executive VP & CFO Hamilton). "On margins, we are now guiding to a full year adjusted EBITDAC margin that will be down approximately 100 to 150 basis points year-over-year" and "we are assuming Q2 margins to be in the low 30s" (Executive VP & CFO Hamilton). "The year-over-year decline reflects the revenue impact of the current and evolving market conditions beyond what we described last quarter, the continued absorption of our talent investments, l...
Jonathan Ernst The Federal Open Market Committee should have indicated that its next rate cut could be either a cut or a hike, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an essay defending his dissent of the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday. He said he supported the FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the meeting. But, given the uncertainty over the Iran war's duration, ...
Jonathan Ernst The Federal Open Market Committee should have indicated that its next rate cut could be either a cut or a hike, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an essay defending his dissent of the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday. He said he supported the FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at the meeting. But, given the uncertainty over the Iran war's duration, he didn't think it appropriate for the committee's statement to retain the phrase "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…" A total of four FOMC members dissented at the meeting, the most since 1992. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also dissented against the easing bias in the statement, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut. The use of the words “additional adjustments” signals that the next move would be a cut, Kashkari said, since the previous action was a 25-basis-point reduction. The Iran war's effect on inflation has him concerned. Kashkari looked at two scenarios on how the Iran war could play out. In the first, a "fairly quick reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz would result in core inflation at ~3% this year. In that event, he envisions an economy where the optimal monetary policy would be to hold rates and then gradually ease over an extended period once the war's inflation shock fades. The second scenario involves a longer conflict leading to an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That would result in a much larger price shock, increasing inflation and unemployment in the U.S. If long-term inflation expectations become unmoored, the Fed would have to take a strong policy response to bring them down, which could require a series of rate increases, which could weaken the labor market further. "Given the uncertainty about the path of the conflict and the resulting effects on inflation, employment, and economic...