It’s highly likely that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates at its next meeting in June, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. While officials aren’t pre-committed to any fixed path and more data are needed to assess the fallout from the Iran war, “we remain firm in our approach,” the Slovak official said Monday. “On this basis, policy tightening in June is all but i...
It’s highly likely that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates at its next meeting in June, Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said. While officials aren’t pre-committed to any fixed path and more data are needed to assess the fallout from the Iran war, “we remain firm in our approach,” the Slovak official said Monday. “On this basis, policy tightening in June is all but inevitable,” he said in an op-ed. “It is becoming increasingly likely that we must prepare for a prolonged period of broad-based price increases coupled with visibly weaker growth across the euro zone.” The ECB last Thursday kept borrowing costs unchanged while signaling that a rate increase will be considered at the June 10-11 gathering. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Friday that such a move will be needed if there’s no significant improvement in the outlook for inflation and economic growth. While some of his colleagues echoed such comments, others struck a more cautious tone. “Obviously we’re talking about a possible increase in interest rates in June,” Lithuania’s Gediminas Simkus said Monday. “But whether the decision will actually be taken will depend on the situation and data.” Should the conflict in the Middle East get resolved, “then it would be a factor that would allow us to think about some other decision,” he added. Most economists and investors expect a quarter-point hike next month. Markets see two moves beyond that before the year is out. Muller: ECB Rate at More-Less Neutral Level Allows Time to Wait Rehn Says Fast ECB Action Needed If Second-Round Inflation Seen Nagel Favors ECB June Hike Unless Outlook Improves Markedly While there’s little the ECB can do to offset the direct surge in inflation due to the energy shock, Kazimir said higher oil and gas prices are also “bound to spread to the rest of the economy.” The ECB is facing current challenges from a “position of stability,” he said. “The memory of the high inflation years is fresh but so is o...
Iran Outraged After Assassination Of Top Shia Cleric In Damascus Via The Cradle Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei on Sunday strongly condemned the assassination of a Syrian Shia religious cleric, describing it as a terrorist attack and "heinous crime." On Friday, Sayyid Farhan al-Mansour, Imam of the Sayyeda Zainab Shrine in the southern suburbs of Damascus, was assassinated after a...
Iran Outraged After Assassination Of Top Shia Cleric In Damascus Via The Cradle Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei on Sunday strongly condemned the assassination of a Syrian Shia religious cleric, describing it as a terrorist attack and "heinous crime." On Friday, Sayyid Farhan al-Mansour, Imam of the Sayyeda Zainab Shrine in the southern suburbs of Damascus, was assassinated after a hand grenade was thrown at his vehicle . Mansour was targeted by unknown assailants shortly after he finished leading Friday prayers and was leaving the shrine. Slain Shia cleric Sayyid Farhan al-Mansour Baghaei said that acts of terrorism targeting religious sites and scholars in Syria and across West Asia are part of a broader plot by Israel and the US to create sectarian division and chaos in the region . Baghaei called on all parties to remain vigilant, confront terrorism and extremism, and stressed the need to hold those responsible for the attack accountable. He further emphasized that Syria's transitional authorities are responsible for ensuring the safety of all citizens, including scholars and members of various ethnic and religious groups. The Syrian Interior Ministry has said the assassination of a Shia cleric marks a "dangerous escalation," adding it is following with "great concern" what it described as "systematic" attempts in recent days to create instability, spread chaos, and undermine civil peace. A source told Asharq al-Awsat that the cleric killed on Friday was "considered a partner of the government in reshaping the landscape of stability within the Shia community" in Syria, going as far as to claim that this role made him a target for cells linked to the "Iran axis," which, according to circles close to the Syrian government, are allegedly exploiting instability by recruiting local agents. Since coming to power in December 2024, Syria's new government has established a religious state based on the extremist teachings of the medieval Sunni religious sc...
Not long ago, the thought of a stock surpassing $1 trillion seemed unfathomable. Today, there are several stocks with market caps of more than $1 trillion, some of which have surpassed $4 trillion. This is largely due to the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the belief that the technology will change life as we know it. The large tech companies best positioned to take advantage of this...
Not long ago, the thought of a stock surpassing $1 trillion seemed unfathomable. Today, there are several stocks with market caps of more than $1 trillion, some of which have surpassed $4 trillion. This is largely due to the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and the belief that the technology will change life as we know it. The large tech companies best positioned to take advantage of this trend have seen their stocks melt up. Furthermore, private companies are expected to go public at stratospheric valuations. Here are three upcoming monster initial public offering (IPOs) that could soon join Meta Platforms , Tesla , and Broadcom in the $1 trillion club. Continue reading
Jordan Siemens/DigitalVision via Getty Images I have covered Australian coal mining firm Yancoal ( YACAF ) several times in the past and have been a happy shareholder for many years. The recent purchase of the Kestrel coal mine has been hailed as a transformative move for the company, significantly increasing its exposure to hard coking coal. The time has come for me to review this transaction and...
Jordan Siemens/DigitalVision via Getty Images I have covered Australian coal mining firm Yancoal ( YACAF ) several times in the past and have been a happy shareholder for many years. The recent purchase of the Kestrel coal mine has been hailed as a transformative move for the company, significantly increasing its exposure to hard coking coal. The time has come for me to review this transaction and explain why you should be extremely cautious with this ticker at the current price level. Ready? Let’s dive in! Kestrel coal mine: what did Yancoal actually purchase? First of all, it is important to remember here that Yancoal did not literally purchase the Kestrel coal mine but 100% of a company called Kestrel Coal Group Pty Ltd, which possesses an 80% stake in the Kestrel coal mine. The other 20% remains the ownership of Mitsui Resources Pty Ltd., a subsidiary of Japanese trading giant Mitsui Co., Ltd. Yancoal acquired Kestrel Coal Group Pty Ltd from a group of investors for a cash sum of $1.85 billion and future contingent payments potentially totaling $550 million over five years . For these contingent payments to occur, the annual average index price for Low Vol Hard Coking Coal should remain above $225 per metric ton. In other words, unless prices for metallurgical coal crash, Yancoal will end up paying $2.35 billion for this majority stake. Interestingly, the company will fund this acquisition with its pile of cash and a couple of credit facilities. Hence, this purchase is not expected to significantly degrade the debt profile of Yancoal and this is a point I particularly appreciate. Kestrel coal mine: what is produced there? Each year, the Kestrel coal mine produces about 6 million metric tons (i.e., about 6.6 short tons for U.S. readers) of saleable coal. 80% of this total is low-vol hard coking coal and the rest is made of high calorific value thermal coal and semi-soft coking coal, grades that are generally sold slightly above the gCNEW6000 index price. Kestrel’...
International Energy Agency analysis shows methane leaks remained at near-record highs in 2025 Methane emissions from the energy sector remained at near record levels in 2025, the International Energy Agency concluded in a report. Tackling the emissions could make billions of cubic metres of gas available to international markets, a top priority as the war in the Middle East squeezes energy suppli...
International Energy Agency analysis shows methane leaks remained at near-record highs in 2025 Methane emissions from the energy sector remained at near record levels in 2025, the International Energy Agency concluded in a report. Tackling the emissions could make billions of cubic metres of gas available to international markets, a top priority as the war in the Middle East squeezes energy supplies , according to the report. Continue reading...
In April, State Street updated its long-term asset class forecasts. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is projected to return 7.1% annually during the next three to five years, while the S&P Small Cap 600 and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes are projected to return 7.6% and 7.5% annually, respectively. Investors can get exposure to those indexes by purchasing shares of the Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (...
In April, State Street updated its long-term asset class forecasts. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is projected to return 7.1% annually during the next three to five years, while the S&P Small Cap 600 and MSCI Emerging Markets indexes are projected to return 7.6% and 7.5% annually, respectively. Investors can get exposure to those indexes by purchasing shares of the Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (NYSEMKT: VIOO) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEMKT: EEM) . Here are the important details. Image source: Getty Images. Continue reading
NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images Dear Partner: Arquitos returned -7.2% net of fees in the first quarter of 2026. Individual returns will vary based on timing of investment. Please check your statement for specific results. Annualized YTD 2026 One Year Three Year Five Year Ten Year Since Inception Arquitos Capital ( NET ) -7.2% 82.1% 42.3% 16.0% 11.8% 13.6% Arquitos Capital (Gross) -6.9% 96.4% 46...
NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images Dear Partner: Arquitos returned -7.2% net of fees in the first quarter of 2026. Individual returns will vary based on timing of investment. Please check your statement for specific results. Annualized YTD 2026 One Year Three Year Five Year Ten Year Since Inception Arquitos Capital ( NET ) -7.2% 82.1% 42.3% 16.0% 11.8% 13.6% Arquitos Capital (Gross) -6.9% 96.4% 46.9% 18.7% 15.3% 17.8% Russell 2000 0.9% 12.8% 13.7% 6.1% 9.6% 9.9% Click to enlarge Liquidating Biotechs and Biopharmas In the first few years of running Arquitos, a popular special situation theme involved distressed companies from the financial crisis. The company was being restructured. Subsidiaries were sold off, closed, or put into some sort of runoff. Sometimes the end goal for the company was liquidation. Investors often misunderstood the value that was left over from these situations. In some cases, shares traded significantly lower than the net assets left over from the restructuring. Sometimes the corporate shells that were left with tax loss carryforwards had even more value if an effective cash flowing acquisition was made. Back then, the theme generally focused on finance-related companies. Over the last few years, something similar has been happening with a handful of biotech and biopharma companies. A representative example is a pre-revenue biotech that believes it has a promising drug in its pipeline. They may have had positive results from clinical trials. The company is able to raise money off that success, but then the drug fails in a phase 3 trial. The company generally has excess cash after that failure, but the share price sometimes drops significantly below the net cash price. I have historically done well with the theme that mispricings (think opportunities) can occur when there is changeover involving different types of investors. In the biotech example above, the shareholder base of that company are investors who are specifically interested in new ...