gopixa/iStock via Getty Images Market Overview The economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product ('GDP') growth was driven by robust household consumption and a narrowing trade deficit in the third quarter, but indicators suggested a slowdown in the fourth quarter. Survey data shows that the prolonged government shutdown dampened consumer confidence and spending. Recent t...
gopixa/iStock via Getty Images Market Overview The economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product ('GDP') growth was driven by robust household consumption and a narrowing trade deficit in the third quarter, but indicators suggested a slowdown in the fourth quarter. Survey data shows that the prolonged government shutdown dampened consumer confidence and spending. Recent trade balance improvements have supported GDP, but they likely reflect inventory accumulation from earlier in the year. As these inventories are drawn down, the trade balance should normalize, which could weigh on growth. Despite potential near-term weakness, we expect the economy to rebound in the second quarter of 2026 as fiscal and monetary stimulus begins reaching consumers and businesses. Inflation trends lower, for now Inflation, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index ('CPI'), continued easing during the fourth quarter. However, the government shutdown caused disruptions in the data collection process that may have called its reliability into question. Looking ahead, core CPI is expected to remain below 3.0% over the coming quarters. That said, substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus entering the economy could spark a second wave of inflation later in the year. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to cut The recent softening in labor market data has allowed the Fed to continue lowering interest rates. We expect employment measurements, which are typically lagging indicators, to deteriorate further in the near term while core inflation remains below 3%. This could provide the Fed with justification for an additional rate cut in 2026. However, yields on U.S. 2-year Treasuries are roughly aligned with the effective federal funds rate right now, suggesting that markets do not anticipate further easing unless economic conditions weaken materially. Credit spreads remain tight The economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter, but credit spreads remain near historica...
Japanese investors sold the largest amount of overseas bonds since 2024 last month, as market watchers scrutinize flows for signs that higher domestic yields were triggering repatriation. Net sales totaled ¥3.42 trillion ($21.8 billion) in February, based on preliminary weekly figures from the Ministry of Finance released on Thursday. That’s the largest monthly sale since October 2024, according t...
Japanese investors sold the largest amount of overseas bonds since 2024 last month, as market watchers scrutinize flows for signs that higher domestic yields were triggering repatriation. Net sales totaled ¥3.42 trillion ($21.8 billion) in February, based on preliminary weekly figures from the Ministry of Finance released on Thursday. That’s the largest monthly sale since October 2024, according to separate balance-of-payments data. The bulk of the sales took place in the week ended Feb. 20. “With declines in Japanese government bonds forcing life insurers to book impairment losses , they may be managing overall profits by realizing gains on foreign bonds,” said Ayako Sera , senior market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “Demand for foreign bonds has probably moderated” given the rise in domestic yields, she said. An auction of 30-year JGBs on Thursday indicated that investor appetite for Japanese bonds may be on the mend after the recent selloff, with the bid-cover gauge for demand exceeding the 12-month average. Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield fell 13 basis points in February, marking the first decline in eight months. “We’ve been selling low-yield foreign bonds and shifting them into yen-denominated bonds since last April,” said Hiroe Oizumi , general manager of the fixed income group at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co.’s securities investment department. “We plan to maintain the current position for the time being, adjusting the balance based on foreign exchange trends.”
In this week’s newsletter, we speak with former Hong Kong residents caught up in the Middle East conflict, speak with the new art chief at Tai Kwun and find a surprising haven in the stock market turmoil. For the Review, we check out the latest contender in the crowded Peking duck market. To subscribe to this weekly newsletter for free, click here . In the Storm As the world grapples with the outb...
In this week’s newsletter, we speak with former Hong Kong residents caught up in the Middle East conflict, speak with the new art chief at Tai Kwun and find a surprising haven in the stock market turmoil. For the Review, we check out the latest contender in the crowded Peking duck market. To subscribe to this weekly newsletter for free, click here . In the Storm As the world grapples with the outbreak of a new war in the Middle East, we take a look at Hong Kong’s many ties to the region, in particular the impact on the lives of people who moved to the Gulf from the city. But first, let’s catch up on our coverage of the conflict: Trump’s Iran strikes usher in era of unrestrained American power Iran satellite images of destruction point to chaotic endgame Iran’s missile math : $20,000 drones take on $4 million Patriots Ali Khamene i, Iran’s anti-western supreme leader, is dead Diplomacy to war: How Trump’s team decided to attack Iran Iran tests pain threshold in survival fight with US and Israel US sub sinks Iranian ship in first torpedo hit since WWII Chinese bank halts Abu Dhabi loan as peers cut Mideast risk It’s been almost two years since we’ve written about the wave of Hong Kong-based professionals moving to the Gulf, lured by appealing salaries, bigger apartments, a high quality of life and zero income taxes at a time Hong Kong was slowly emerging from pandemic rules. According to the government, there are more than 400 Hong Kong residents stranded in the Middle East — a number that doesn’t include the countless people with other ties to the city. The Persian Gulf has been steadily attracting talent from Hong Kong for more than a decade now, a process that accelerated during protests and draconian Covid restrictions. So when the region found itself in the middle of a widening war, many people with ties to the city were among those whose lives have been upended. It’s been “very eye opening,” said Lavine Hemlani, who heads a financial intelligence data company. B...
Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) CEO Dario Amodei has been holding discussions with Emil Michael, undersecretary of defence for research and engineering, in a bid to iron out a contract governing the Pentagon’s access to Anthropic’s AI models, the Financial Times reported. Agreeing to a new contract would enable the U.S. military to continue using Anthropic’s ( ANTHRO ) technology and greatly reduce the risk ...
Anthropic ( ANTHRO ) CEO Dario Amodei has been holding discussions with Emil Michael, undersecretary of defence for research and engineering, in a bid to iron out a contract governing the Pentagon’s access to Anthropic’s AI models, the Financial Times reported. Agreeing to a new contract would enable the U.S. military to continue using Anthropic’s ( ANTHRO ) technology and greatly reduce the risk of the company being designated as a supply chain risk — a move threatened by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday but not yet enacted. The attempt to reach a compromise agreement follows the spectacular collapse of talks last week. Michael attacked Amodei as a “liar” with a “God complex” on Thursday. Deliberations broke down a day later after the pair failed to agree on language that Anthropic felt was essential to prevent AI from being used for mass domestic surveillance, which is one of the company’s red lines, alongside lethal autonomous weapons, the report said. “Near the end of the negotiation the [department] offered to accept our current terms if we deleted a specific phrase about ‘analysis of bulk acquired data’ which was the single line in the contract that exactly matched this scenario we were most worried about. We found that very suspicious,” wrote Amodei in a memo to staff on Friday, which was first reported by The Information on Wednesday and seen by the FT. In the note, which is likely to complicate negotiations, Amodei wrote that much of the messaging from the Pentagon and OpenAI ( OPENAI ), which struck its agreement with Hegseth on Friday, was “just straight up lies about these issues or tries to confuse them”. Amodei suggested Anthropic had been frozen out because “we haven’t given dictator-style praise to Trump” in contrast to OpenAI chief Sam Altman, the FT reported. The fight between Anthropic and the government escalated after the Pentagon pushed for AI companies to allow their technology to be used for any “lawful” purpose. It culminated in Hegs...
Key findings for Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Neutral Near and Mid-Term Readings Could Moderate Long-Term Positive Bias Support is being tested. If it holds, expect resistance next. Exceptional 34.7:1 risk-reward setup targets 10.1% gain vs 0.3% risk Signals: 213.72 · 216.82 · 235.22 · 255.31 (bold = current price) 213.72 · · 235.22 · 255.31 Neutral Sentiment is prevailing thus far — See current...
Key findings for Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Neutral Near and Mid-Term Readings Could Moderate Long-Term Positive Bias Support is being tested. If it holds, expect resistance next. Exceptional 34.7:1 risk-reward setup targets 10.1% gain vs 0.3% risk Signals: 213.72 · 216.82 · 235.22 · 255.31 (bold = current price) 213.72 · · 235.22 · 255.31 Neutral Sentiment is prevailing thus far — See current SIGNALS for positioning and risk parameters. Institutional Trading Strategies Our AI models have generated three distinct trading strategies tailored to different risk profiles and holding periods. Each strategy incorporates sophisticated risk management parameters designed to optimize position sizing and minimize drawdown risk. Position Trading Strategy LONG Entry Zone $213.72 Target $235.22 Stop Loss $213.10 Momentum Breakout Strategy BREAKOUT Trigger $235.22 Target $255.31 Stop Loss $234.56 Risk Hedging Strategy SHORT Entry Zone $235.22 Target $223.46 Stop Loss $235.93