Maximusnd/iStock via Getty Images Next Monday, the 9th of March, 2026, will be the 18th anniversary of this secular bull stock market, which began on March 9th, 2009. The recent rotation that started in 2026 has seen – as of last Friday, February 27th, 2026 – the Mag 7 decline 6.99% YTD, while the XMAG (a Defiance ETF) has returned +3.52%, S&P 500 equal-weight ( RSP ) has returned +7%, the S&P 500...
Maximusnd/iStock via Getty Images Next Monday, the 9th of March, 2026, will be the 18th anniversary of this secular bull stock market, which began on March 9th, 2009. The recent rotation that started in 2026 has seen – as of last Friday, February 27th, 2026 – the Mag 7 decline 6.99% YTD, while the XMAG (a Defiance ETF) has returned +3.52%, S&P 500 equal-weight ( RSP ) has returned +7%, the S&P 500 mid-cap has returned +8.21%, and the Russell 2000 has returned +6.20% to start off the first two months of 2026. In my opinion, it’s healthy when a market does this, since it allows the patient, non-momentum investors to benefit, and it shows investors that the market isn’t just a “one-trade” party, i.e., “buy tech,” “buy the Q's,” etc. To be frank, even though clients are long Microsoft ( MSFT ), which was down -18.60% YTD at the end of February ’26, this is a very mild rotation, but very similar to the kind of rotation seen in March 2000. I’m not wild about this return chart from YCharts, which shows the S&P 500 versus the various asset classes that lay dormant for years in the late 1990s and their respective returns from March 31, 2000 through March 31, 2006. Oakmark International ( OAKIX ) was tossed in the mix, since in the early 2000s, international equity and emerging markets lit the lamp for most of the decade (possibly thanks to China’s 15% per year GDP growth), while the S&P 500 had its worst decade of annual returns since the 1930s. During the late 1990s, international, emerging markets and China were all but ignored. International equity’s broad outperformance (which really started in ’25) is doing well again this year, as are emerging markets, and there is probably more left in the move if you look at the weaker dollar again in ’26. What’s the major difference between the two time periods? In a word, “sentiment,” or rather the considerable lack of bullish sentiment around stocks today (except for Nvidia ( NVDA ) and the semis), versus the late 1990s when livin...