SoftBank Group Corp. ’s digital payments provider PayPay Corp. is delaying the start of formal marketing for its US initial public offering, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Tokyo based firm, which was expected to file a prospectus outlining the price range for its IPO on Monday, cited market conditions for the delay, the person said, asking not to be identified as the informati...
SoftBank Group Corp. ’s digital payments provider PayPay Corp. is delaying the start of formal marketing for its US initial public offering, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Tokyo based firm, which was expected to file a prospectus outlining the price range for its IPO on Monday, cited market conditions for the delay, the person said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Reuters reported on the delay earlier. Representatives for SoftBank and PayPay didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment outside normal business hours in Japan. Markets were shaken on Monday by the airstrikes on Iran by the US and Israel on the weekend, and the retaliation by the Islamic Republic against other countries in the region including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. PayPay was seeking a valuation of more than $10 billion , Bloomberg News has reported, although SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son had pushed for a valuation as high as $20 billion. PayPay originated in 2018 as a joint venture with Vision Fund-backed Indian payments company Paytm . Shortly after launch, the company zoomed past Rakuten Group Inc. ’s Rakuten Pay in capturing users, thanks to heavy marketing, aggressive subsidies and SoftBank’s support in signing on merchants around Japan. As of December, the number of PayPay users exceeded 72 million in a country of roughly 123 million. Read More: SoftBank’s PayPay App Showcases Masayoshi Son’s Clout in Japan For the latest news on equity capital markets activity in the US, Canada and Latin America, follow the channel or visit NI BFWECMUS . To subscribe to ECM Watch , Bloomberg’s daily roundup of news from around the region, click here . The offering is being led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , JPMorgan Chase & Co. , Mizuho Financial Group and Morgan Stanley , its filings show. The company is expected to debut on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol PAYP.
DNY59/iStock via Getty Images Nvidia Corporation ( NVDA ) reported strong earnings on Thursday and then declined 4% on Friday. When stocks no longer positively respond to good news, seasoned investors believe that all the good news is priced in, and downside risks are increasingly elevated. On Friday evening, Operation Epic Fury—the United States’ and Israel's joint attack on Iran—began. This mass...
DNY59/iStock via Getty Images Nvidia Corporation ( NVDA ) reported strong earnings on Thursday and then declined 4% on Friday. When stocks no longer positively respond to good news, seasoned investors believe that all the good news is priced in, and downside risks are increasingly elevated. On Friday evening, Operation Epic Fury—the United States’ and Israel's joint attack on Iran—began. This massive military operation designed to defang and decapitate Iran’s leadership raises market risks sharply and will create an environment of uncertainty for months. These two factors should weigh on the S&P 500 ( SP500 ), whose CAPE ratio is 39.8, a near record high, and could possibly mark a top in the S&P 500 and MAG 7 for this bull market. Below is a chart of the CAPE ratio, the 10-year P/E valuation methodology, showing the S&P 500 is near historic peak valuations. Chart Of CAPE ratio since 1860 (yale.edu) The 33-year chart of the S&P 500 below shows the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) rose ten-fold from March 2009 to March 2026 and tripled from March 2020 to March 2026. Long Term Chart of S&P (IBKR Traderworkstation) Three Downside Drivers Investment icon Stanley Druckenmiller put out a YouTube video that we believe captures what downside risks exist today in the market. He believes a 30% decline could be in store for us this Fall. While his comments are a bit promotional, he is a brilliant investor who properly sums up the mounting risks of our $38 trillion deficit and debt service burden that should lead to a liquidity drain in the future. The Yen Carry Trade’s Unwind. For decades, Japan has carried interest rates near 0%. International investors found they could borrow at a near-zero interest rate and invest in the U.S. more profitably. Initially, these loans were used to buy U.S. Treasuries, but now investments in the S&P 500 and the MAG7 have also been acquired with these low-cost funds. Beginning in 2024, Japan began raising its interest rates, and the “free-money” opportunity b...
May arabica coffee (KCK26 ) today is up +4.00 (+1.42%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26 ) is up +159 (+4.39%). Coffee prices are moving higher today, with robusta up sharply at a 2-week high. Supply concerns are supporting coffee prices today, as the war in Iran has halted most...
May arabica coffee (KCK26 ) today is up +4.00 (+1.42%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26 ) is up +159 (+4.39%). Coffee prices are moving higher today, with robusta up sharply at a 2-week high. Supply concerns are supporting coffee prices today, as the war in Iran has halted most...
A similar AI shopping feature on TikTok. | The Verge In late February, Puck reported on a strange case: An influencer with more than a million followers was inadvertently promoting products on Instagram. On some of Julia Berolzheimer's posts, a "Shop the look" button hovered in the corner. When followers clicked it, they were fed similar items to what Berolzheimer was wearing. Her job is to promot...
A similar AI shopping feature on TikTok. | The Verge In late February, Puck reported on a strange case: An influencer with more than a million followers was inadvertently promoting products on Instagram. On some of Julia Berolzheimer's posts, a "Shop the look" button hovered in the corner. When followers clicked it, they were fed similar items to what Berolzheimer was wearing. Her job is to promote clothing, accessories, and other products to her followers, so having links to specific items isn't strange. What was odd was that she hadn't placed the links there herself - Instagram added them without her consent. The product links led followers not to the actual items Berolzheimer was promotin … Read the full story at The Verge.
It was possible to spin his 2025 arrival as a clean slate but the former businessman soon lost the confidence of key players The wait continues for confirmation that Charles Allen’s brief, troubled – and ultimately ineffectual – tenure as chair of the British Horseracing Authority is over. In racing terms, however, he is nine-tenths out of the saddle, his backside inching towards the turf and grav...
It was possible to spin his 2025 arrival as a clean slate but the former businessman soon lost the confidence of key players The wait continues for confirmation that Charles Allen’s brief, troubled – and ultimately ineffectual – tenure as chair of the British Horseracing Authority is over. In racing terms, however, he is nine-tenths out of the saddle, his backside inching towards the turf and gravity is about to take over. Even in the thankless and intractable world of racing politics, few stars have waned as rapidly as that of Lord Allen of Kensington, a former businessman and senior broadcasting executive who arrived in September at the BHA promising to restructure the sport’s governance and, in the words of his day-one mission statement, “develop British racing into a modern commercial and cultural powerhouse”. Continue reading...
Takumi Nishio/iStock via Getty Images Several months ago, in July 2025, I decided to take a fresh look at Vulcan Materials Company ( VMC ). I consider this to be an interesting business because it plays to many of the themes that I'm drawn to. Specifically, I like more boring enterprises. And little can be more boring than things like aggregates, concrete, and the like. But unfortunately, back the...
Takumi Nishio/iStock via Getty Images Several months ago, in July 2025, I decided to take a fresh look at Vulcan Materials Company ( VMC ). I consider this to be an interesting business because it plays to many of the themes that I'm drawn to. Specifically, I like more boring enterprises. And little can be more boring than things like aggregates, concrete, and the like. But unfortunately, back then, I could not be bullish about the company. Even though management had achieved steady revenue and profit growth leading up to that point, I believed that shares were priced at levels that were unreasonable. So at the end of the day, I ended up reaffirming it as a "Hold" candidate. Since then, however, the stock has outperformed my expectations, rising 16.5%, while the S&P 500 is up only 11.5%. Looking at the data today, I see that management continues to achieve attractive growth. But when you consider how the stock is valued on both an absolute basis and relative to other similar firms, I would argue that there are better prospects that can be had today. For that reason, I believe that maintaining it as a "Hold" is the right choice. Checking In On Vulcan Materials Company Usually when I analyze a publicly traded company, I'd like to start off with the most recent data available. The exciting thing for shareholders of Vulcan Materials Company is that results just came out on Feb. 17 for the final quarter of the company's 2025 fiscal year . During that time, revenue for the business was a solid $1.91 billion. That was up nicely from the $1.85 billion the company reported a year earlier. Author - SEC EDGAR Data This overall increase in sales came from a couple of different categories. For instance, aggregate revenue popped 3.2%, from $1.47 billion to $1.52 billion. This rise can be attributed to two different factors. To start with, the company went from selling 53.9 million tons to selling 55.1 million tons. But in addition to this, it saw a rise in the freight-adjusted sa...
Oaktree Capital Management has picked banks to help arrange an initial public offering of UK-based insurance-based wealth management solutions provider Utmost Group Plc , according to people familiar with the matter. Oaktree has selected Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to help arrange the IPO in London, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. The two f...
Oaktree Capital Management has picked banks to help arrange an initial public offering of UK-based insurance-based wealth management solutions provider Utmost Group Plc , according to people familiar with the matter. Oaktree has selected Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. to help arrange the IPO in London, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. The two firms beat out other top Wall Street banks for a role on the IPO, which could value the firm at about £2.5 billion ($3.3 billion), some of the people said. Oaktree is also considering a sale of Utmost, people familiar with the matter said previously . Deliberations are at an early stage and could still change, the people said. Representatives for Oaktree, Utmost, Bank of America and JPMorgan declined to comment. Founded in 2013, Utmost sells insurance-linked investment products to wealthy clients, with £116.3 billion in assets under administration at the end of last year . Oaktree, owned by New York-based Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. , has been a long term backer of Utmost. Should it list, an IPO would be a welcome boost to London’s centuries-old stock exchange, which is still recovering from a prolonged drought in new offerings.
Top Energy Analyst Says Iran's Navy Too Weak To Completely Choke Hormuz FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg TV on Monday morning that any attempt by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to choke off the critical Strait of Hormuz using warships, drones, and missiles would likely be short-lived, as the regime's naval capability is too weak to sustain a blockade against...
Top Energy Analyst Says Iran's Navy Too Weak To Completely Choke Hormuz FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg TV on Monday morning that any attempt by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to choke off the critical Strait of Hormuz using warships, drones, and missiles would likely be short-lived, as the regime's naval capability is too weak to sustain a blockade against U.S., British, and French naval forces. " It's just a fear factor ," Fesharaki said earlier on Bloomberg TV, following his prediction one week earlier on Bloomberg TV: "I don't think the U.S. has a choice but to go to war. It is very hard for me to see a scenario in which they would simply avoid this, turn the ships around, and go home." Fesharaki has tracked the market for decades. Fesharaki said this morning, "The Revolutionary Guard navy is a minor force compared with what the American navy, the British, and the French can bring in." Fesharaki's comments about the duration of the war mirrored President Trump's remarks to The Daily Mail on Sunday, in which he said Operation Epic Fury would last about four weeks . He also described the IRGC as a "paper tiger." On Sunday, Trump announced that nine Iranian naval ships had been sunk in the operation. "I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk nine Iranian naval ships, some of them relatively large and important," Trump wrote in a post on X, adding that Iran's naval headquarters has been "largely destroyed" in a different attack. "We are going after the rest — they will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!" Trump wrote. Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira provided more insight on the Strait: Iran understands that threatening traffic through Hormuz is its most credible asymmetric lever. Even limited interference can raise oil prices and impose immediate economic costs on the U.S. and its partners, increasing pressure on Washington to de-escalate. We expect at least moderate disruptions to...
Geopolitical developments over the weekend have resulted in about a 6% spike in WTI crude oil prices Monday, extending their year-to-date uptrend. The rise in crude oil prices has fueled a sharp runup in energy stocks, but a few bellwethers are showing signs of upside exhaustion that warrant patience for investors looking to take advantage of their bullish longer-term technical setups. WTI crude o...
Geopolitical developments over the weekend have resulted in about a 6% spike in WTI crude oil prices Monday, extending their year-to-date uptrend. The rise in crude oil prices has fueled a sharp runup in energy stocks, but a few bellwethers are showing signs of upside exhaustion that warrant patience for investors looking to take advantage of their bullish longer-term technical setups. WTI crude oil appears to be turning the corner on a long-term basis. The monthly MACD has triggered a "buy" signal, reflecting an important shift in long-term momentum that suggests a multi-month turnaround is taking shape. With Monday's move, WTI crude oil is now above key resistance near $68 a barrel, so we are watching for a breakout above that level to be made decisive next week as confirmation of a long-term reversal. With crude oil showing signs of a turnaround, it's not surprising to see that strength reflected in energy stocks. From a long-term perspective, both Baker Hughes (BKR) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have taken meaningful steps forward in 2026. Each has pushed to new multi-year highs, reinforcing that leadership within the energy sector remains intact and that the cyclical and secular uptrends are in force. Importantly, both charts are also supported by long-term upside momentum, with their monthly MACD histograms both positive and rising. The message is more cautious near term, however, noting both BKR and XOM have registered counter-trend signals from the DeMark Indicators , denoted by "13s" on the weekly charts. This suggests their rallies are overextended, enhancing overbought conditions from the weekly stochastics, and therein increasing the likelihood of a pullback or digestion phase. The short-term setup tells us not to chase the news-driven strength in energy stocks, but rather to wait for the uptrends to be refreshed by a period of corrective price action. The rising 50-day moving averages are initial support for both BKR and XOM, near $54 and $135 respectively. The...
Sir Keir Starmer draws a narrow legal distinction. But if British bases enable a wider US-Israeli campaign, the UK risks sliding into an unlawful conflict In the Commons on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer was clear that Britain will not join offensive action against Tehran. It is wise not to join an illegal attempt at “ regime change from the skies ”. Sir Keir will, however, permit US use of British base...
Sir Keir Starmer draws a narrow legal distinction. But if British bases enable a wider US-Israeli campaign, the UK risks sliding into an unlawful conflict In the Commons on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer was clear that Britain will not join offensive action against Tehran. It is wise not to join an illegal attempt at “ regime change from the skies ”. Sir Keir will, however, permit US use of British bases for limited defensive strikes aimed at stopping Iranian missile attacks. That is a legally clear line, but it may be politically and militarily tricky to stick to. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions are reckless and unlawful. But so are Iran’s strikes – hitting hotels, airports and energy infrastructure – across the Gulf. Where Britain’s allies have asked for support, or where UK nationals are at risk, the UK is legally entitled to act in collective self-defence. But this holds only as long as the action is restricted to halt Tehran’s barrage. Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here . Continue reading...
(RTTNews) - Swiss stocks closed on a weak note on Monday, in line with most of the markets across Europe, amid falling appetite for riskier assets due to rising tensions in the Middle East.
(RTTNews) - Swiss stocks closed on a weak note on Monday, in line with most of the markets across Europe, amid falling appetite for riskier assets due to rising tensions in the Middle East.
A construction company CEO walked onto Jim Cramer’s set Friday and made a claim that stopped everyone in their tracks: Sterling Infrastructure (NASDAQ:STRL) CEO Joesph Cutillo noted the company had outperformed NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) since 2015. With NVIDIA widely considered the ‘story stock’ of the entire stock market, that’s a bold claim! Here’s how the interaction ... CEO Of Tiny Company Tells Ji...
A construction company CEO walked onto Jim Cramer’s set Friday and made a claim that stopped everyone in their tracks: Sterling Infrastructure (NASDAQ:STRL) CEO Joesph Cutillo noted the company had outperformed NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) since 2015. With NVIDIA widely considered the ‘story stock’ of the entire stock market, that’s a bold claim! Here’s how the interaction ... CEO Of Tiny Company Tells Jim Cramer They’ve Outperformed NVIDIA Since 2015
Plans to resurrect the children’s services decimated by austerity are appealing. But schools also need attention Heavily trailed reforms to special educational needs and disabilities (Send) education dominated coverage of last week’s schools white paper. But Bridget Phillipson’s policy of in-sourcing special provision, creating a new tier of support and making mainstream settings more inclusive , ...
Plans to resurrect the children’s services decimated by austerity are appealing. But schools also need attention Heavily trailed reforms to special educational needs and disabilities (Send) education dominated coverage of last week’s schools white paper. But Bridget Phillipson’s policy of in-sourcing special provision, creating a new tier of support and making mainstream settings more inclusive , is the centrepiece of a broader agenda that also requires scrutiny. All schools in future will have to join multi-academy trusts, including a new kind of trust established by councils. Ministers have also promised a drastic shrinking of the attainment gap between richer and poorer pupils, and new projects in north-east England and coastal areas aimed at raising standards. The way that £8bn in disadvantage funding is targeted is also being changed. Other measures include financial incentives for heads in challenging schools, stronger oversight of academy trusts and a clear signal of openness to flexible working arrangements. Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here . Continue reading...
Kiyoshi Tanno/iStock via Getty Images AeroVironment ( AVAV ) saw its stock slide sharply Monday after Raymond James cut its rating from Strong Buy to Underperform. The downgrade came as investors reacted to fresh concerns about AeroVironment’s ( AVAV ) largest program of record and its future revenue outlook. The stock fell as much as 22% in early trading, erasing a morning rally that had been lif...
Kiyoshi Tanno/iStock via Getty Images AeroVironment ( AVAV ) saw its stock slide sharply Monday after Raymond James cut its rating from Strong Buy to Underperform. The downgrade came as investors reacted to fresh concerns about AeroVironment’s ( AVAV ) largest program of record and its future revenue outlook. The stock fell as much as 22% in early trading, erasing a morning rally that had been lifted by gains in the broader defense sector following recent geopolitical developments. SCAR program risk cited Analyst Brian Gesuale told clients the decision reflects uncertainty around the Space Force’s SCAR (Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource) program, which had been AeroVironment’s ( AVAV ) biggest contract at roughly $1.4 billion in expected value. Work on the program is now under review and may be split among new vendors or paused entirely, putting that revenue at risk. Raymond James said the shift in the SCAR landscape, combined with slowing backlog growth and moderating orders, clouds the company’s near-term revenue and backlog visibility. Backlog is the precursor to revenue and the firm noted that without stronger growth it may weigh on estimates. Wall Street reaction in context The downgrade stood out amid a generally bullish bias for defense stocks as markets cheered U.S. and allied military action in the Middle East, which has lifted companies such as Lockheed Martin ( LMT ) and Northrop Grumman ( NOC ). AeroVironment’s ( AVAV ) early gains in the session underscored that geopolitical tension can boost demand for drone and missile makers. But the rating cut highlighted how contract uncertainty can outweigh broader sector momentum for individual names. Investors will be watching further developments around AeroVironment’s ( AVAV ) backlog and contract awards, as well as upcoming earnings, to gauge whether the stock’s recent pullback reflects a short-term shock or a deeper re-evaluation of the company’s growth trajectory. More on AeroVironment AeroViro...
The Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (NYSEMKT:SCHE) and the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ:IXUS) differ most in geographic reach, recent performance, and sector makeup, while matching each other on cost. Both SCHE and IXUS aim to provide international equity exposure, but their scopes are distinct. SCHE focuses exclusively on emerging markets, while IXUS spans both devel...
The Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (NYSEMKT:SCHE) and the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ:IXUS) differ most in geographic reach, recent performance, and sector makeup, while matching each other on cost. Both SCHE and IXUS aim to provide international equity exposure, but their scopes are distinct. SCHE focuses exclusively on emerging markets, while IXUS spans both developed and emerging markets outside the United States. This comparison examines their cost, recent returns, risk, and portfolio characteristics to help investors decide which may align better with their global allocation goals. Continue reading
Shares of the optical-networking provider have nearly tripled so far this year as AI players seek out high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity products.
Shares of the optical-networking provider have nearly tripled so far this year as AI players seek out high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity products.
Alla Morozova/iStock via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund Q4 2025 Commentary. Performance Discussion The portfolio meaningfully outperformed the MSCI EAFE Small Cap Growth Index but modestly lagged the blend MSCI ACWI ex USA SMID Index, amid a strong quarter of leadership for the "value" investment style and more cyclical sectors. In fa...
Alla Morozova/iStock via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund Q4 2025 Commentary. Performance Discussion The portfolio meaningfully outperformed the MSCI EAFE Small Cap Growth Index but modestly lagged the blend MSCI ACWI ex USA SMID Index, amid a strong quarter of leadership for the "value" investment style and more cyclical sectors. In fact, 2025 marked five consecutive years of "value" leadership, which is unprecedented both in duration and magnitude in our asset class. In our estimation, many businesses "of value" have been forgotten in a market driven by narratives and low-quality leadership, with price momentum and size driving market returns. The portfolio's overweight to software within the IT sector and meaningful underweight to metals and mining within the materials sector were significant detractors from relative return. Among the top-performing areas within the blend benchmark were energy, banks and utilities. Our portfolio, which has a structural growth orientation, has no exposure to these cyclical, capital-intensive and highly regulated market segments. It is important to note that while bottom-up security selection drives our process, we balance our enthusiasm with a commitment to diversification across industries, geographies and themes. In addition, industrials, where a few of our defense positions gave back a portion of strong year-to-date gains, detracted from Q4 relative return. In keeping with our contrarian approach to valuation, we trimmed these positions during the year and deployed our gains into other opportunities with a more attractive risk/reward. On the positive side, stock selection within health care, most notably in the biotechnology, health care equipment and pharmaceuticals industries, was the biggest source of outperformance and the strongest contributor to absolute return during the quarter. As we discussed in our Q2 letter, top-down pressures on the sector have resulted ...
In this podcast, Motley Fool personal finance expert Robert Brokamp discusses the pros and cons of five of the most common options, including the new Trump accounts. Also in this episode: To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center . When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy . Continue reading
In this podcast, Motley Fool personal finance expert Robert Brokamp discusses the pros and cons of five of the most common options, including the new Trump accounts. Also in this episode: To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center . When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy . Continue reading
April WTI crude oil (CLJ26 ) today is up +4.20 (+6.27%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ26 ) is up +0.0968 (+4.24%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are sharply higher today, with crude posting an 8.25-month high and gasoline posting a 19-month high. The main bullish factor for crude prices is...
April WTI crude oil (CLJ26 ) today is up +4.20 (+6.27%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ26 ) is up +0.0968 (+4.24%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are sharply higher today, with crude posting an 8.25-month high and gasoline posting a 19-month high. The main bullish factor for crude prices is...
Warren Buffett was apparently pretty bearish on the stock market late last year. The company he led as CEO until year end, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) , was holding a record amount of cash, having sold off big chunks of several major positions. But Buffett did opt to add to certain positions -- a signal of bullishness, at least for certain stocks. In fact, after a sizable purcha...
Warren Buffett was apparently pretty bearish on the stock market late last year. The company he led as CEO until year end, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) , was holding a record amount of cash, having sold off big chunks of several major positions. But Buffett did opt to add to certain positions -- a signal of bullishness, at least for certain stocks. In fact, after a sizable purchase, Buffett now owns 9.3% of an iconic value stock , pushing this position into his top 10 bets at Berkshire Hathaway. Continue reading
A sustained rise in oil prices would lift Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook, Bank of Nova Scotia says. The war in Iran has already pushed petroleum prices higher, which may increase what Canada — a major crude-producing country — earns from exports relative to what it spends on imports. A persistent $10-a-barrel boost in the price of West Texas Intermediate would mean the level of Can...
A sustained rise in oil prices would lift Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook, Bank of Nova Scotia says. The war in Iran has already pushed petroleum prices higher, which may increase what Canada — a major crude-producing country — earns from exports relative to what it spends on imports. A persistent $10-a-barrel boost in the price of West Texas Intermediate would mean the level of Canada’s real gross domestic product would be 0.5% higher by the end of 2027, according to Olivier Gervais , director of modeling and forecasting at Scotiabank. “Higher oil prices represent a sizeable nominal income transfer into Canada. Energy sector profits and investment rise, supporting employment and eventually household spending,” Gervais said in a report Monday. The lift would be partly offset by weaker household purchasing power as gasoline prices rise. While core inflation would be “relatively contained,” the consumer price index would be 0.2 percentage points higher by the end of 2027 and the Canadian dollar would appreciate about 3%, “dampening imported inflation but weighing on non-energy exports.” Overall, the model implies the Bank of Canada ’s policy rate would be 30 basis points higher by the end of next year, said Gervais, who also worked for the central bank for 17 years. The analysis underscores the challenge for policymakers confronting overlapping supply shocks. In a speech Monday, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki said the central bank’s decision-making becomes more complex during supply shocks, which can simultaneously pressure growth and prices. The economy has already been strained by US tariffs that have weighed on exports and business investment. Despite firmer domestic demand in the fourth quarter, output contracted at a 0.6% annualized pace as inventories were drawn down. The bank projects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the next couple of years and has signaled comfort with holding the overnight rate at 2.25% as the economy adjusts to s...