Is Credit Whispering, Or Screaming? By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Is Credit Whispering? Or Screaming? For the past couple of years, it has been relatively safe to assume credit is well behaved and relatively range bound. It is unclear if that remains the case. We may be in a situation where the AI spend, the AI displacement, and the Working Poor are forming a storm of some sort. How severe ...
Is Credit Whispering, Or Screaming? By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities Is Credit Whispering? Or Screaming? For the past couple of years, it has been relatively safe to assume credit is well behaved and relatively range bound. It is unclear if that remains the case. We may be in a situation where the AI spend, the AI displacement, and the Working Poor are forming a storm of some sort. How severe remains to be seen, but for the first time in a while it is a real concern for me. My inclination has been to “fade” any concerns and “buy the dip.” That is still my “gut,” but I don’t think we should trust that “gut” feeling here. Bank Debt We are going to start with bank debt today. Senior secured leveraged loans (as opposed to debt issued by banks). There are a few reasons to start with the leveraged loan (or bank debt) market and this ETF in particular: It is senior secured, so in theory is at the “top” of the capital structure (loan only issuers as well as covenant-lite deals have made that less of a truism than it once was). Our longstanding view is that “financial” bubbles always start with “credit” bubbles, which start with a “safe” asset no longer being safe. To say the leveraged loan market was viewed as “safe” is a stretch, but could we argue that private credit took on an aura of “safeness?” The nature of this ETF creates more risk of an ETF Spiral™ than we see in some other credit ETFs, where that risk is also present. This ETF is almost back to its Liberation Day lows in price terms. One “excuse” for this has come up in some conversations: We’ve had 3 rate cuts and anticipate more, making floating rate products less interesting . FLOT, an investment grade, floating rate bond ETF, has not sold off at all. This isn’t just about rates. In fact, it isn’t about credit “generically,” it is about specific aspects of the credit market. The ETF mechanics are important here as well. BKLN is $6.4 billion, so it is relatively small, which is good. By comparison, HY ETFs l...
Good morning and welcome back. In breaking news, Magellan has agreed to buy Barrenjoey Capital Partners in a deal that valued the upstart Australian investment bank at about A$1.62 billion. As part of the deal, Magellan will buy about 10% in Barrenjoey from Barclays. But overshadowing all other news this morning, is the US-Israel conflict with Iran. America said it suffered its first casualties in...
Good morning and welcome back. In breaking news, Magellan has agreed to buy Barrenjoey Capital Partners in a deal that valued the upstart Australian investment bank at about A$1.62 billion. As part of the deal, Magellan will buy about 10% in Barrenjoey from Barclays. But overshadowing all other news this morning, is the US-Israel conflict with Iran. America said it suffered its first casualties in the war, with three service members killed and five seriously wounded. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed on the first day of strikes. Tehran confirmed Khamenei’s death hours later. For the energy markets, it’s a nightmare scenario . About a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG typically flows through the Strait of Hormuz every day, and with just a few hours to go until oil markets open, most traders said they expect Brent crude prices to spike from $72.48 a barrel at the close on Friday. Travelers are now trapped in Dubai after the main airport terminal was damaged by a volley of missiles and drones from Iran. And here’s the rundown on how Trump’s team decided to attack . — Ainsley Thomson, Wellington Bureau Chief What’s happening now Prime Minister Anthony Albanese joined global leaders calling for a quick resolution to the crisis in the Middle East. “Khamenei was responsible for the regime’s ballistic missile and nuclear program, support for armed proxies and its brutal acts of violence and intimidation against its own people,” he said. “His passing will not be mourned.” Judgments about the legality of the weekend strikes on Iran are a question for the US and others directly involved in the action. Sydney home prices went sideways in February, even as other major cities powered ahead . Both Sydney and Melbourne recorded flat results, while Perth, rose 2.3% and Brisbane advanced 1.6%, property consultancy Cotality said. Australia’s major cities climbed by a combined 0.6%, easing from 0.7% pos...
Key PointsSo far this year, investors are putting more than four times as much new money into international developed market stocks as they’re investing in U.S. stocks.
Key PointsSo far this year, investors are putting more than four times as much new money into international developed market stocks as they’re investing in U.S. stocks.
Good morning . Iran’s counterstrikes widen. Thailand limits baht-denominated gold transactions. And Honor’s humanoid robot takes the stage in Barcelona with backflips and dance moves. Listen to the day’s top stories . Iranian missiles struck buildings in Tel Aviv, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait intercepted projectiles . A Dubai container port came under attack and hundreds of flight...
Good morning . Iran’s counterstrikes widen. Thailand limits baht-denominated gold transactions. And Honor’s humanoid robot takes the stage in Barcelona with backflips and dance moves. Listen to the day’s top stories . Iranian missiles struck buildings in Tel Aviv, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait intercepted projectiles . A Dubai container port came under attack and hundreds of flights in the region were canceled. Three US troops were reported dead , and Tehran announced 40 days of mourning for slain leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Launching such a large attack with unlimited goals may incentivize the Iranian regime to use every means at its disposal to strike back, Bloomberg Opinion’s Marc Champion writes. For the latest, follow our live coverage here . China condemned the US-Israeli strikes . The killing of Khamenei—which Foreign Minister Wang Yi called “unacceptable”— may complicate the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Elsewhere in Asia, at least 10 pro-Iranian protesters died in clashes with Pakistani police as they tried to storm the US consulate in Karachi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced backlash from Indian opposition groups over his Israel trip last week. Iranians on Khamenei’s Death: Mourning on State TV, Public Joy Read the Story In corporate news, BYD’s February sales sank 41% year over year to 190,190 units, after a record-long Lunar New Year holiday halted production and retail activity in China. A reduction in purchase tax exemptions and cooling consumer confidence are weighing on demand, with buyers waiting for new models and further clarity on government trade-in initiatives . Nvidia is throwing its weight behind an effort to ensure 6G networks are designed to support AI-driven services and devices. The world’s most valuable company is teaming up with a group of telecom firms—including Nokia, SoftBank and T-Mobile—that will commit to building sixth-gen networks based on computers and software capable of using AI to help dir...
Michael Burry on Thursday issued a warning regarding Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) massive surge in purchase obligations, claiming the chipmaker is mirroring the structural risks that led to Cisco Systems Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:CSCO) collapse during the dot-com bubble. $95 Billion Red Flag In a recent Substack newsletter, Burry highlighted a staggering shift in Nvidia's latest Form 10-K filing. The company...
Michael Burry on Thursday issued a warning regarding Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) massive surge in purchase obligations, claiming the chipmaker is mirroring the structural risks that led to Cisco Systems Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:CSCO) collapse during the dot-com bubble. $95 Billion Red Flag In a recent Substack newsletter, Burry highlighted a staggering shift in Nvidia's latest Form 10-K filing. The company's purchase obligations have skyrocketed to $95.2 billion, a massive leap from just $16.1 billion a
Michael Burry on Thursday issued a warning regarding Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) massive surge in purchase obligations, claiming the chipmaker is mirroring the structural risks that led to Cisco Systems Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:CSCO) collapse during the dot-com bubble. $95 Billion Red Flag In a recent Substack newsletter, Burry highlighted a staggering shift in Nvidia's latest Form 10-K filing. The company...
Michael Burry on Thursday issued a warning regarding Nvidia Corp.'s (NASDAQ:NVDA) massive surge in purchase obligations, claiming the chipmaker is mirroring the structural risks that led to Cisco Systems Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:CSCO) collapse during the dot-com bubble. $95 Billion Red Flag In a recent Substack newsletter, Burry highlighted a staggering shift in Nvidia's latest Form 10-K filing. The company's purchase obligations have skyrocketed to $95.2 billion, a massive leap from just $16.1 billion a year ago. When combined with other supply agreements, Nvidia's total commitments now stand at approximately $117 billion. Burry argues that this isn’t a reaction to external shocks but a fundamental, risky change in how the company operates. "This is not business as usual. This is risk," Burry cautioned. Don't Miss: He noted that Nvidia is being forced to lock in long-term capacity with suppliers like TSMC before future demand is fully known. "This new reality reflects a deliberate decision to lock up supply chain capacity further than Nvidia has ever done before," he wrote. The Cisco Parallel The crux of Burry's thesis lies in the haunting similarity to Cisco Systems in 2000. At the height of the internet boom, Cisco aggressively committed to supply contracts to support its projected 50% annual growth. When tech spending plummeted, Cisco was left with billions in unusable inventory and saw its stock price crater by over 80%. While Nvidia's current 70% profit margins offer a cushion Cisco didn’t have, Burry remains skeptical of their longevity. "That type of margin would likely revert quickly with a shift in demand," he warned, suggesting the current “AI darling” status provides no immunity to a cyclical downturn. See Also: Blue-chip art has historically outpaced the S&P 500 since 1995, and fractional investing is now opening this institutional asset class to everyday investors. Strategic Move Or Supply Trap? Not all of Wall Street shares Burry's pessimism. Analysts at Rosenb...
If every win is going to be painful from here, you may as well just take the painful wins – welcome to Arsenal’s late title stagger On Thursday night at a swanky London hotel so luxuriously risk‑averse the toilets are equipped with wireless thermostats to control to within half a degree the heat of the seat, the Premier League chief executive, Richard Masters, spoke in detail for the first time ab...
If every win is going to be painful from here, you may as well just take the painful wins – welcome to Arsenal’s late title stagger On Thursday night at a swanky London hotel so luxuriously risk‑averse the toilets are equipped with wireless thermostats to control to within half a degree the heat of the seat, the Premier League chief executive, Richard Masters, spoke in detail for the first time about the prospect of “Premflix”, the direct‑to‑consumer model of the future, an app that will sluice this irresistible footballing opiate directly into the eyeballs of 8 billion rapt humans. In doing so Masters was echoing the words of Todd Boehly on the same stage 12 months earlier, who had talked about the Premier League as a kind of fire stolen from the gods, source of the next great tech platform, an engine of empire, tool of world domination, of lassoing the moon out of the sky. Continue reading...
As China’s leaders convene for the annual “two sessions” starting this week, the eyes of the world will be fixed on Beijing. This gathering is no ordinary policy meeting. Beyond setting the economic growth target for 2026, it will finalise the 15th five-year plan (2026–2030), a blueprint that will define the nation’s economic and social priorities for the second half of this decade. In an era of i...
As China’s leaders convene for the annual “two sessions” starting this week, the eyes of the world will be fixed on Beijing. This gathering is no ordinary policy meeting. Beyond setting the economic growth target for 2026, it will finalise the 15th five-year plan (2026–2030), a blueprint that will define the nation’s economic and social priorities for the second half of this decade. In an era of intensifying great-power competition, particularly with the United States, these decisions will shape...
What are the best safe havens for investors following the Supreme Court's ruling that many of the Trump administration's tariffs are invalid? Seeking Alpha analysts Julia Ostian , Leo Nelissen , Victor Dergunov , and Multiplo Invest gave us their thoughts. Julia Ostian : While traditional safe havens like gold, healthcare, and consumer staples are still relevant, in my perspective, as someone who ...
What are the best safe havens for investors following the Supreme Court's ruling that many of the Trump administration's tariffs are invalid? Seeking Alpha analysts Julia Ostian , Leo Nelissen , Victor Dergunov , and Multiplo Invest gave us their thoughts. Julia Ostian : While traditional safe havens like gold, healthcare, and consumer staples are still relevant, in my perspective, as someone who lives in Israel, I would go with a more targeted play. I believe the current tariff situation may be acting as a distraction from the unprecedented buildup of military strength in the Middle East, which now exceeds what many experts witnessed during the Iraq era. With that in mind, I view defense as the structural safe haven of 2026. While Lockheed Martin ( LMT ) was one of my favorite picks in 2025, its 40% rally since my latest “Buy” rating suggests it’s time for a cooling-off period. Instead, I would look toward Northrop Grumman ( NOC ) or RTX Corp. ( RTX ) as good substitutes. For those interested in a modern warfare exposure, AeroVironment ( AVAV ) is a compelling, though speculative, leader in drones, while Palantir ( PLTR ) went down to levels at which initiating a position wouldn’t be a horrible idea. General Dynamics ( GD ) is a navy and strategic modernization pick. Leo Nelissen : To me, the question is not necessarily which companies perform best during times of tariffs, but what the underlying goal is of these tariffs. What we know is that President Trump has become unpredictable. What we also know is that both the Democrats and the Republicans have focused on economic reshoring. That’s the goal here. The measures are different. To me, this benefits companies needed to support America’s growing industrial base. Think of the Class I railroads like Union Pacific ( UNP ) and CSX Corp. ( CSX ), as well as players like Eaton ( ETN ) and Quanta Services ( PWR ), who are required for grid and infrastructure modernization. For higher-income investors, this also applies ...