In Gorton and Denton, I heard again and again that people wanted seismic political change – Labour and the Tories are no longer part of that conversation In the wake of Labour’s third-place showing at last Thursday’s Gorton and Denton byelection, Keir Starmer could have responded with a mixture of magnanimity, grit, and a clear appreciation of what had just happened. He might have congratulated th...
In Gorton and Denton, I heard again and again that people wanted seismic political change – Labour and the Tories are no longer part of that conversation In the wake of Labour’s third-place showing at last Thursday’s Gorton and Denton byelection, Keir Starmer could have responded with a mixture of magnanimity, grit, and a clear appreciation of what had just happened. He might have congratulated the Green party’s new MP Hannah Spencer , and insisted that the themes of inequality and everyday struggle she had so loudly emphasised throughout the campaign were at the top of his government’s priorities. He could also have combined that message with a show of determination to learn from the defeat and win back the voters his party lost, and an acknowledgment that Labour’s recent calamities and internal bickering had sent those people completely the wrong signals. John Harris is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
Germany To Scrap Subsidy For Rooftop Solar Germany is planning to abolish fixed feed-in tariffs for small rooftop solar installations as of 2027, saying that falling costs have made the technology economically sound without subsidies (narrator: " it isn't "), Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a draft proposal for reforms it has seen. At present, rooftop solar installations of any kind are eligi...
Germany To Scrap Subsidy For Rooftop Solar Germany is planning to abolish fixed feed-in tariffs for small rooftop solar installations as of 2027, saying that falling costs have made the technology economically sound without subsidies (narrator: " it isn't "), Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a draft proposal for reforms it has seen. At present, rooftop solar installations of any kind are eligible for guaranteed tariffs. But this could change in a few months, if the government approves the proposal of the German economy ministry to have subsidies abolished for projects of less than 25 kilowatts, according to OilPrice . The ministry argues that the small rooftop solar are now often viable on their own without incentives, thanks to the lower costs. “To strengthen the cost efficiency of solar expansion, a stronger focus will in future be placed on cost-effective solar parks,” the ministry’s proposal reads, as carried by Bloomberg. The plans for a reform of the subsidies was first leaked by German media outlets. “If the leaked draft is genuine, it would be yet another attack on renewable energy, following the grid package proposal,” said Ursula Heinen-Esser, president of Germany’s renewable energy association BEE. Abolishing support for rooftop solar would have “disastrous consequences” for the sector and would deprive homeowners from participating in the energy transition, Heinen-Esser added. The German Solar Association, BSW-Solar, also deplored the leaked draft proposal as “a frontal attack on Germany’s energy transition.” Germany plans to boost onshore wind capacity to 115 gigawatts and solar capacity to 215 gigawatts by the end of the decade—targets which it will keep in the proposal for reforms. Europe’s biggest economy has a target to have renewables account for 80% of its electricity generation in 2030. In solar, Germany is halfway through reaching its 2030 solar power targets, BSW-Solar said in June last year. Germany saw the highest number of onshore wind t...
Jefferies analysts just released a basket of major companies at risk of artificial intelligence disruption, providing some guideposts for investors at a fragile time for U.S. stocks. Fears have spread in the market that rapidly developing artificial intelligence models will soon disrupt an array of traditional business models, spurring a sell-off at various times this year in software-as-a-service...
Jefferies analysts just released a basket of major companies at risk of artificial intelligence disruption, providing some guideposts for investors at a fragile time for U.S. stocks. Fears have spread in the market that rapidly developing artificial intelligence models will soon disrupt an array of traditional business models, spurring a sell-off at various times this year in software-as-a-service providers, insurance services, logistics and real estate stocks. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is down more than 23% this year, entering a bear market. The selling has sometimes been indiscriminate, many investors say, but the weakness continues to plague several big name companies, such as Robinhood and ServiceNow . And concern that the selling stirred by AI will tip over into other industries remains high, keeping investors alert to potential risks ahead. "While we have seen a recent rebound, the sector remains exposed to further AI developments," Jefferies head of quantitative strategy Desh Peramunetilleke wrote in a Friday note to clients. "The software sector is trading at 21x PE, the same as the market, and for somewhat similar EPS growth (16% EPS CAGR). However, given future uncertainties, the sector could even trade at a discount." To find stocks with significant AI-related risks, Jefferies created an "AI risk" basket using a combination of return profiles and an AI-assisted search algorithm. What the investment bank found was 150 stocks with a market cap above $1 billion that face potential AI risks such as asset repricing, demand substitution, labor substitution, moat decay and pricing pressure. In order to find vulnerable stocks, Jefferies searched for sub-industries that could be hurt by various threats of disruption. The firm then combined those findings with stock-level returns and ran them through a series of pre-trained prompts to find stock-specific, AI risk. Take a look at a selection of the stocks below: Unity Software is at risk th...
francescoch/iStock via Getty Images Introduction The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future, but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present" ~ Paul Saffo Timing matters, and it matters greatly. I have spent the last 35 years trading, researching, and constructing algorithms to identify and leverage the value across fundamental, technical, and behavioral fi...
francescoch/iStock via Getty Images Introduction The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future, but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present" ~ Paul Saffo Timing matters, and it matters greatly. I have spent the last 35 years trading, researching, and constructing algorithms to identify and leverage the value across fundamental, technical, and behavioral finance models. Of the ten portfolio models designed for optimal portfolio mixes for members to beat the market at Value & Momentum Breakouts , eight come from enhancing well-tested anomaly research in published financial journals. All of the models continue to outperform the S&P 500 in live forward testing here on Seeking Alpha, and again this year. If This is a 2022 Market Repeat, Here is What Happens Next First, let me be clear that I am not under any illusion that 2026 is identical to 2022, nor that making comparisons of two completely different time periods is not without a myriad of flaws. This article is intended to capture and share a large number of significant similarities and show you what we are doing to beat the markets again this year in our 9th year on Seeking Alpha. As I write this article, the US and Israel are launching air strikes against Iran over the weekend, and I have no idea what future events may unfold from this last day of February. I am reminded that back in February of 2022, the world was shocked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine that continues as a terrible conflict today, more than four years later. The structure of this article will begin with a broad macro perspective that progresses to more sector details and shorter time frames. Within each section I will share some of the models, signals, and portfolios we are using to beat the markets again this year. Any one of these following sections could be an article by itself with much more detail than we discuss daily in our community. Instead, I will let the charts do most of the talking as succi...
Shareholders and analysts largely gave Greg Abel high marks for his first annual shareholder letter as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway , praising his clear commitment to preserving the company's long-standing values and operating philosophy while addressing lingering questions about capital allocation in the post-Buffett era. Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett as CEO at the start of 2026, us...
Shareholders and analysts largely gave Greg Abel high marks for his first annual shareholder letter as chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway , praising his clear commitment to preserving the company's long-standing values and operating philosophy while addressing lingering questions about capital allocation in the post-Buffett era. Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett as CEO at the start of 2026, used the letter to outline a clear framework of foundational values centered on financial strength and disciplined investing. For now, many investors appear satisfied that Abel has preserved the blueprint Buffett carefully orchestrated over six decades. "I think it was important that he emphasized that Warren may not be leading Berkshire, but Berkshire as an entity continues along the same path with the same values," said Cathy Seifert, an analyst at CFRA Research. "And I think in that regard, he nailed it. I give the letter an A, because I think he did what he needed to do. It was deferential, but also gave enough specifics [on] a number of the unanswered questions that have been circling around." Big questions answered Among those questions was who would ultimately oversee Berkshire's stock portfolio, an issue Abel addressed directly by stating that responsibility resides with him as CEO. Shareholders also received clarity on whether the new CEO would alter Berkshire's long-standing stance on dividends and share repurchases. Abel reaffirmed that the conglomerate has no plans to initiate a dividend, reiterating the policy that Berkshire will not pay one so long as each dollar of retained earnings is likely to create more than a dollar of market value. On buybacks, Abel signaled continuity as well, saying repurchases remain a capital allocation tool but only when Berkshire shares trade below intrinsic value and without compromising liquidity. "I thought that was an exceptional letter. Laid out the framework for how he will move Berkshire forward while acknowledging some areas...
Nikada/iStock via Getty Images Artificial intelligence doesn’t run on software alone. It depends on semiconductors, energy, and critical materials. Explore the ETFs providing exposure to the AI buildout. What Actually Powers AI? It’s easy to think of AI as a purely digital phenomenon built on code and data floating in the cloud. But every model runs on physical hardware, consumes real electricity,...
Nikada/iStock via Getty Images Artificial intelligence doesn’t run on software alone. It depends on semiconductors, energy, and critical materials. Explore the ETFs providing exposure to the AI buildout. What Actually Powers AI? It’s easy to think of AI as a purely digital phenomenon built on code and data floating in the cloud. But every model runs on physical hardware, consumes real electricity, and depends on materials that are pulled from the ground. Training a frontier model like GPT-4 reportedly consumed around 50 gigawatt-hours of energy, which is enough to power San Francisco for three days. 1 And that’s just the training phase. Inference, which is the process of actually serving AI to hundreds of millions of users, demands even more sustained power over time. All of that computation flows through three critical layers: Semiconductors that do the math. Energy that keeps the data centers running around the clock. Strategic metals embedded in the hardware itself. When any of those layers hits a bottleneck like a chip shortage, a power constraint, or an export ban on critical minerals, it affects every corner of the AI economy. How Can You Invest in the AI Supply Chain? Rather than chasing the handful of software names that dominate AI headlines, investors can target the physical infrastructure that every one of those companies depends on. VanEck offers three ETFs, each mapped to a distinct layer of the AI supply chain. ETF Role in AI Supply Chain Why It Matters for AI Why Invest SMH The advanced chips: GPUs, AI accelerators, that perform the trillions of calculations behind model training and inference. Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions on AI compute. No chips, no AI. Concentrated access to the 25 largest U.S.-listed semiconductor companies. NLR Uranium mining, reactor construction, and nuclear power generation: the 24/7 baseload electricity AI requires. Data center power demand is set to double by 2030. Nuclear is the only scalable zero-carbon op...
I underestimated Japan’s determination to ruffle China’s feathers. In a November 2023 column, I argued that the apparently cordial meeting between President Xi Jinping and then US president Joe Biden in the US unsettled Japan, which wanted to attain its goal of becoming a “normal country” again. In a column last December, I said Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hardened position against Ch...
I underestimated Japan’s determination to ruffle China’s feathers. In a November 2023 column, I argued that the apparently cordial meeting between President Xi Jinping and then US president Joe Biden in the US unsettled Japan, which wanted to attain its goal of becoming a “normal country” again. In a column last December, I said Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hardened position against China – exemplified by her November 7 speech saying China’s forceful takeover of Taiwan could pose an...
Paper Boat Creative/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction A few days ago, I wrote an article titled “This Is Not A Normal Rotation - It’s A Regime Change.” As most of my regular readers know, it’s a continuation of my recent in-depth coverage of new market drivers. In recent months, we have gone from a tech-driven market to a market that now relies on expectations of a prolonged capital rota...
Paper Boat Creative/DigitalVision via Getty Images Introduction A few days ago, I wrote an article titled “This Is Not A Normal Rotation - It’s A Regime Change.” As most of my regular readers know, it’s a continuation of my recent in-depth coverage of new market drivers. In recent months, we have gone from a tech-driven market to a market that now relies on expectations of a prolonged capital rotation, fueled by AI disruption and broadening economic growth, among many other factors. What we are doing is highlighting every aspect of the rotation. As easy as that sounds, it’s challenging, as I truly believe we’re in the most complex market environment in decades, as we are dealing with economic growth uncertainty, AI disruption, geopolitical difficulties, and a lot of factors within each of these themes that make it truly hard to assess the risk/reward of the market and many specific investment themes. Just to give you an idea, think about this: Within the span of 2 years, AI went from a bullish-only factor to a two-edged sword that benefits some stocks and creates havoc in areas like software. Trillions in long-term AI CapEx is bullish. However, what if we get close to a situation where CapEx growth is peaking? What will happen to the high-flying CapEx beneficiaries? What if there’s no end in sight to this kind of growth? Will AI deliver the desired results for AI hyperscalers? What if that doesn’t happen? Will tech valuations compress even further? So many questions and not enough answers. That’s why I’m spending so much time on the market and various investment ideas. Today, I’ll try to answer some of the questions above and walk you through what I consider some of the most essential developments on Wall Street that are likely to drive the returns of the next few quarters, if not years. Hence, as we have, once again, a lot on our plate, let’s get right to it! NVDA Is Where a Lot Intel is Hiding in Plain Sight I don’t own NVIDIA ( NVDA ) stock, but I sure care a lot...