Pla2na/iStock via Getty Images Introduction CareTrust REIT ( CTRE ) has long been one of my favorite REITs since turning bullish on the company in 2023 . However, their strong performance in recent years led me to believe the stock was overvalued. With the recent pullback in price, down close to 5% in the past month, CTRE appears more attractive for long-term investors at the current price. But at...
Pla2na/iStock via Getty Images Introduction CareTrust REIT ( CTRE ) has long been one of my favorite REITs since turning bullish on the company in 2023 . However, their strong performance in recent years led me to believe the stock was overvalued. With the recent pullback in price, down close to 5% in the past month, CTRE appears more attractive for long-term investors at the current price. But at a forward P/AFFO multiple still close to 19x, I think investors should wait for another 10% - 15% pullback for a margin of safety. In this article, I discuss CareTrust REIT's latest earnings, fundamentals, and why despite the pullback, I'm reiterating shares at a hold. Previous Downgrade I last covered CareTrust REIT back in March in an article titled: This Overlooked REIT's Hot Streak Continues, But The Bargain Is Gone. Although CTRE showed strong growth and was expecting 2026 to be another breakout year, their forward multiple near 21x earnings led me to believe the valuation was stretched, putting new investors at high risk of underperformance. I indicated CTRE could trade anywhere between 18x and 20x going forward but suggested investors wait for a pullback to the mid-$30s or lower before considering. Moreover, the upside potential to their price target of $43.82 wasn't enough for me to remain bullish, and instead I downgraded them to a hold to wait for a better entry point. Since then, CTRE has underperformed, down over 9% in comparison to the S&P ( SP500 ), up close to 11%. Seeking Alpha Strong Activity Continues CareTrust REIT reported their Q1 earnings last month with FFO in line with estimates at $0.48. Revenue managed to beat analysts' estimates by a solid $8.92 million, amounting to $142.78 million. Year-over-year, FFO grew 14%, while FAD was up 13%. In Q1, management made an additional $245 million in investments at a blended yield of 8.8%. For comparison, although their yield declined from 10% the prior year's quarter, the REIT saw higher investment activity w...
Artem Peretiatko/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Hidden Opportunities Investors spend an enormous amount of time trying to predict where interest rates will be 6-12 months from now. The media adds to the excitement by being fixated on what the Federal Reserve will do in its next meeting and how many times we will see rate revisions in upcoming meetings. Countless hours are devoted to deba...
Artem Peretiatko/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored with Hidden Opportunities Investors spend an enormous amount of time trying to predict where interest rates will be 6-12 months from now. The media adds to the excitement by being fixated on what the Federal Reserve will do in its next meeting and how many times we will see rate revisions in upcoming meetings. Countless hours are devoted to debating every inflation report, jobs number, and central banker speech and interview in an attempt to gain an edge. There is no edge. Accurately forecasting short-term interest rate movements is exceptionally difficult, even for professional economists and market participants. Even the members of the Fed’s Board of Governors don't know what the monetary policy will be at the end of the year. Everyone can make an educated guess, even the best have been proven wrong time and again. Instead of building portfolios around a specific rate forecast, income investors are often better served by building a portfolio that can perform reasonably well across a wide range of outcomes. A rate-agnostic portfolio does not require investors to correctly predict the next move by the Federal Reserve. Rather, it emphasizes investments that can continue generating attractive income whether rates move higher, lower, or remain unchanged. This is how we invest at High Dividend Opportunities . Today, we examine two opportunities that fit our rate-agnostic philosophy from two angles. We will discuss fixed and floating-rate preferreds and securities with defined near-term maturity dates. Collectively, they demonstrate how investors can build durable income streams without relying on predictions. Let’s dive in. Pick #1: AGNC Preferreds – Up To 8.7% Yields AGNC Investment Corp. ( AGNC ) is one of our favorite mREITs that invests in agency MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities). Agency MBS carry minimal credit risk, and current mortgage coupons around 5.5% allow AGNC to earn attractive spreads even if short-term ...
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Video Summary: XLK After the Record Rally: A Fork in the Road In this video, I go through the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLK ) after its best 10-week rally in 27 years (+48.9%), explaining why it resembles the 1999 dot-com melt-up although there are vastly different earnings support. I cut my rating to Hold from my earlier Stron...
Jonathan Kitchen/DigitalVision via Getty Images Video Summary: XLK After the Record Rally: A Fork in the Road In this video, I go through the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLK ) after its best 10-week rally in 27 years (+48.9%), explaining why it resembles the 1999 dot-com melt-up although there are vastly different earnings support. I cut my rating to Hold from my earlier Strong Buy. The 1999 Comparison and Why It's Not Quite That Simple In 2000 (March bubble peak), Cisco ( CSCO ) traded at 137x forward earnings (~28x today), Oracle ( ORCL ) at 118x (~25x today), and the average forward P/E = 53x. The Nasdaq eventually fell 78% from its high to low. Today, XLK's forward P/E is around 28 to 30x (with Goldman Sachs putting major tech at about 20x in April, before the rally). XLK constituents are expected to grow earnings 43% in 2026 and 24% in 2027: real, improving profits, not the negative sector cash flows of 1999. Key Risks Concentration & Leverage: XLK is rather top-heavy: 61.8% of the fund is invested in just ten companies, and more than one-third is in six semiconductor stocks. If NVIDIA single-handedly drops 20%, XLK's NAV would drop by roughly 2.6%. Major cloud companies have borrowed well over $100 billion through bond markets to fund AI-related capital expenditures, and demand for credit-default swap protection has increased as investors hedge the risk behind that buildout. Valuation Ceiling: At 30x forward earnings, the fund's already expensive . So if earnings growth comes in below that 43% estimate, or if the Fed tightens policy again, don't be surprised if investors quickly push valuations lower. I think that the $146–$150 range, which was the prior breakout zone, is the key support level to watch. Capex ROI Cliff: Should major cloud players begin cutting their capital expenditure plans at the end of 2026 due to AI investments not yielding the expected returns, the market sentiment could quickly change from “recovery” to “correction.”...
Getty Images The Fed to make a major hawkish turn The Fed still officially has an easing bias, based on the March SEP, where it signaled a continuation of policy normalization towards the neutral rate, with two additional cuts planned. However, Fed Funds futures are currently pricing two Fed hikes, and this is based on the recent macroeconomic data and geopolitical situation, which is deemed to be...
Getty Images The Fed to make a major hawkish turn The Fed still officially has an easing bias, based on the March SEP, where it signaled a continuation of policy normalization towards the neutral rate, with two additional cuts planned. However, Fed Funds futures are currently pricing two Fed hikes, and this is based on the recent macroeconomic data and geopolitical situation, which is deemed to be inflationary. Thus, the Fed is likely to officially change its easing bias at the June FOMC meeting, and make a significant hawkish turn, by signaling that the next move will be a hike (not a cut) - consistent with the Fed Fund futures. This hawkish turn is likely to exacerbate the unfolding selloff in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ). The Fed's current bias So, here is the SEP from the Fed's March meeting. The Fed still has an official easing bias with one cut signaled in 2026 to 3.4% and another cut signaled in 2027 to 3.1%, which is near the long-term nominal neutral rate of 3%. Note, the Fed Funds rate is still modestly restrictive at 3.6%, thus, the Fed is still officially in a policy normalization mode - that's the return of the Fed Funds rate to a neutral level. The continuation of policy normalization is based on the Fed's assessment that: The labor market is weakening, and Inflation is elevated due to the one-time effect of tariffs, which is supposed to disappear in the second half of 2026, and thus, the core PCE is expected to fall near the 2% target in 2027. However, the recent data has shown that the labor market has strengthened, and the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East is causing the inflationary pressures via the unfolding energy price shock, which seems to be more persistent. Thus, the Fed's March SEP is outdated. FOMC SEP, March Expectations of a hawkish turn Fed Funds futures are now signaling that the market expects the Fed's next move will be a hike. Specifically, the December 2026 Fed Funds futures contract is priced at 97.15, which implies nearly a 100...
Getty Images Every earnings season I go through hundreds of reports looking for disconnects to find the places where the narrative and the numbers have stopped talking to each other. Sometimes the market is right, and the numbers eventually catch up to the story, but then there are other times the market gets so consumed by a narrative that it stops doing the math entirely. I believe Salesforce ( ...
Getty Images Every earnings season I go through hundreds of reports looking for disconnects to find the places where the narrative and the numbers have stopped talking to each other. Sometimes the market is right, and the numbers eventually catch up to the story, but then there are other times the market gets so consumed by a narrative that it stops doing the math entirely. I believe Salesforce ( CRM ) has become the clearest example of the second category anywhere in large-cap technology. Shares are sitting around $165, which is just above the 52-week low of roughly $163. CRM has been in a bear market and is now down -37.40% over the past year. The S&P 500 is near all-time highs, AI infrastructure names are commanding premium multiples, and the market has decided that the SaaSpocalypse narrative applies to CRM more than almost any other large cap in the market. While that narrative was hardening, CRM delivered a record Q1 FY2027 with $11.13 billion in revenue, 13.27% YoY growth, non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 that grew 50% YoY, and beat estimates by $0.75. On top of that, in an AI-fueled market, CRMs's AI and data business reached $3.4 billion in annual recurring revenue. I have been wrong on CRM so far, and I will address that head-on, but that doesn’t change the fact that CRM is one of the most inexpensive companies in the entire stock market from a profitability standpoint. Seeking Alpha Following Up On My Previous Article About Salesforce Back in September I wrote an article making the case that CRM was an undervalued AI play that was being overlooked heading into Dreamforce ( can be read here ). Shares were trading at $243.25 and I felt that paying 21.4 times 2025 earnings for a company growing its AI and Data Cloud ARR by 120% YoY was a bargain. Since then, CRMs have declined by -31.57%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 11.97%. There is no way to sugarcoat that result, and I am not going to try. The gap between CRM and the market has only widened since my original thesis...
davincidig/iStock via Getty Images Maintaining a bullish outlook on markets has become an emotionally challenging affair in recent history, but the crowd continues to look through the constant flow of troubling news and concludes that it’s still reasonable to stay the course. Informed or not, that sentiment has been a winning strategy so far and remains on display in several sets of ETF pairs that...
davincidig/iStock via Getty Images Maintaining a bullish outlook on markets has become an emotionally challenging affair in recent history, but the crowd continues to look through the constant flow of troubling news and concludes that it’s still reasonable to stay the course. Informed or not, that sentiment has been a winning strategy so far and remains on display in several sets of ETF pairs that track key market segments through yesterday’s close (June 11). From a global asset allocation perspective, an aggressive strategy ( AOA ) relative to its conservative counterpart ( AOK ) offers a useful starting point. This broad-based measure of sentiment weakened in the early weeks of the war with Iran but has since recovered and continues to point to a risk‑on bias. Using the 50‑day/200‑day moving averages as a guide for the AOA:AOK ratio has successfully minimized much of the noise in recent years, albeit with some glaring exceptions. During the correction associated with the tariff tantrum in the spring of 2025, for example, a risk‑off signal was triggered, which ultimately proved to be a false alarm. Since then, this indicator has remained risk‑on as a big‑picture guide, supporting the case for looking through the recent chaotic news flow. The key takeaway: monitoring metrics such as AOA:AOK, while hardly flawless, are useful starting point for evaluating sentiment and asking the question: Is there a strong case for betting against the crowd? Similarly, monitoring a broad measure of U.S. stocks ( SPY ) versus a low‑volatility counterpart ( USMV )—a proxy for a relatively conservative equity portfolio—shows a continued risk‑on posture this year via the 50‑/200‑day ratio, albeit one that has pulled back from its recent peak. Several other measures of the U.S. equity market reflect even stronger risk‑on signaling, including the comparison between the broad equities market ( SPY ) and a defensive strategy based on a so‑called market‑neutral anti‑beta fund ( BTAL ). Skept...
Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Wall Street has a bad habit of punishing a stock twice for the same mistake. First, it takes a beating when the bad news breaks, then it takes another when the lawyers show up to relieve it of whatever's left. SoFi Technologies, Inc. ( SOFI ) is getting that second beating right now, and we can see it all over the chart. But, after watching more th...
Joe Hendrickson/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Wall Street has a bad habit of punishing a stock twice for the same mistake. First, it takes a beating when the bad news breaks, then it takes another when the lawyers show up to relieve it of whatever's left. SoFi Technologies, Inc. ( SOFI ) is getting that second beating right now, and we can see it all over the chart. But, after watching more than two decades of sell-offs like this play out, I’ve learned that the right question is rarely “what went wrong?” Rather, I find it better to question whether the thesis is still intact- the catalysts that investors have stopped paying attention to. And with SoFi, there’s a quietly built answer to that question that almost no one talks about, which I will cover in this particular piece. Spoiler: With everything else discussed below, my Buy rating for SoFi remains in place. Where does SoFi stock stand? Seeking Alpha At the time of publication, SoFi stock trades around $16 . So far this year, it’s down more than 36%, yet it’s still up over 10% over the past 12 months, largely because the stock rallied in late 2025. Today, that excitement seems to be waning. But, is it warranted? Let’s have a look at some simple technicals. On a scale of 0 to 100, SoFi’s 14-day RSI currently sits at 50.34 . RSI gives us an indication whether a stock may have been bought or sold too aggressively in the recent past (in this case, the 14 means the last 14 trading periods). An oversold stock would have a 14-day RSI of below 30, so in this case, a reading around 50 certainly doesn’t mean there's blood in the streets. My read is that the company has worked off most of its froth and is now drifting through the middle ground where tired sellers and bargain hunters bump into each other. But even so, the stock does appear to be gradually declining, with the sell-off starting in late January 2026. What happened? When the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and laid out full-year 2026 guidance, ...
Rezolve AI ( RZLV ) announced on Friday that it plans to seek shareholder approval for a capital reduction and a buyback authorization of up to $300M Pursuant to the agreement, BTIG will acquire shares for potential repurchase by the company. The board expects approval, with UK court approval anticipated by end-August. Rezolve AI is exploring non-dilutive financing options to support the buyback p...
Rezolve AI ( RZLV ) announced on Friday that it plans to seek shareholder approval for a capital reduction and a buyback authorization of up to $300M Pursuant to the agreement, BTIG will acquire shares for potential repurchase by the company. The board expects approval, with UK court approval anticipated by end-August. Rezolve AI is exploring non-dilutive financing options to support the buyback program. Any repurchases will depend on market conditions and capital allocation priorities. More on Rezolve AI Rezolve: Can Cash Buy AI Credibility? Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV) Shareholder/Analyst Call Prepared Remarks Transcript Russell 3000 tech shuffle: CoreWeave set to enter while MicroVision exits Commerce.com says Rezolve offer significantly undervalues company
"The Pulse With Francine Lacqua" is all about conversations with high profile guests in the beating heart of global business, economics, finance and politics. Based in London, we go wherever the story is, bringing you exclusive interviews and market-moving scoops. Today's guests: John Waldron, Goldman Sachs, COO & President; Konstantin Veit, PIMCO Portfolio Manager; Alex Michl, Czech Central Bank ...
"The Pulse With Francine Lacqua" is all about conversations with high profile guests in the beating heart of global business, economics, finance and politics. Based in London, we go wherever the story is, bringing you exclusive interviews and market-moving scoops. Today's guests: John Waldron, Goldman Sachs, COO & President; Konstantin Veit, PIMCO Portfolio Manager; Alex Michl, Czech Central Bank Governor; Alex Zhavoronkov, Insilico Founder; Rudolf Minsch, Economiesuisse, Chief Economist (Source: Bloomberg)
SPX Technologies (SPXC) witnessed a jump in share price last session on above-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions for the stock doesn't suggest further strength down the road.
SPX Technologies (SPXC) witnessed a jump in share price last session on above-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions for the stock doesn't suggest further strength down the road.
The US and Iran may sign an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sidelines of the Group of Seven world leaders summit next week, according to senior officials. A senior Iranian official indicated overnight that a deal is likely, said a G7 official and a diplomat from outside the group, who both asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters. This year’s G7 summit takes place in Evia...
The US and Iran may sign an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the sidelines of the Group of Seven world leaders summit next week, according to senior officials. A senior Iranian official indicated overnight that a deal is likely, said a G7 official and a diplomat from outside the group, who both asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters. This year’s G7 summit takes place in Evian, in the French Alps, from June 15 to June 17. Geneva, in Switzerland, is nearby and being floated...