Devrimb/iStock via Getty Images THM as a leveraged bet on gold with increasing probability of realization I see International Tower Hill Mines ( THM ) as a form of gold derivative. The company has currently moved from the stage of promising potential to the stage where it makes sense to talk about implementation and value creation. This has happened mainly thanks to the large and already partially...
Devrimb/iStock via Getty Images THM as a leveraged bet on gold with increasing probability of realization I see International Tower Hill Mines ( THM ) as a form of gold derivative. The company has currently moved from the stage of promising potential to the stage where it makes sense to talk about implementation and value creation. This has happened mainly thanks to the large and already partially transferred audit base. It is also thanks to a large capital increase, which effectively extends the runway and allows the company to do work that the market can appreciate. Last but not least, I would like to mention the visibility of antimony as a potential co-product at a time when the domestic supply chain of strategic metals is politically and economically unstable. My rating is based on a simple idea. The market usually prices development projects with a heavy discount, and in most cases, it does so brutally. Until it is clear who will pay for it and who will approve it. At THM, the first such block has just moved, the company has closed an upsized equity financing ($115 million), and at the same time, it is clear that large and strong investors are willing to add to their positions. Of course, this in itself does not solve the main obstacle in the form of billions in capex. However, it reduces the risk of an immediate death spiral of financing and increases the chance that the project will move to a stage where it can be financed normally (partnerships, debt, offtake, etc.). What I like most about the company is that it holds an asset that is easily readable for big players. P&P reserves are approximately 9 Moz. To this we can add M&I resources outside these reserves. This is exactly the type of foundation on which transactions can be built if the project team proves that it can improve the economics and reduce permitting uncertainty. Bearings are not a problem, financing is the problem International Tower Hill Mines is a single asset investment. The company holds a...
Coupang (NYSE:CPNG), South Korean e-commerce and technology company, closed Friday at $19.08, up 1.98%. The stock inched higher as investors reacted to stabilization signs following the late‑2025 data incident and are watching how management’s recovery plan and buybacks support e
Coupang (NYSE:CPNG), South Korean e-commerce and technology company, closed Friday at $19.08, up 1.98%. The stock inched higher as investors reacted to stabilization signs following the late‑2025 data incident and are watching how management’s recovery plan and buybacks support e
Brett_Hondow/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Schneider Electric ( SBGSY ) is a great business. That's the reason I invested in the company many years ago. But every company can become expensive and no longer worth what it's trading at. That is what I believe has happened to Schneider Electric here. For "proof", if you will, I point to the significant intra-year 2025 volatility we've seen from th...
Brett_Hondow/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Schneider Electric ( SBGSY ) is a great business. That's the reason I invested in the company many years ago. But every company can become expensive and no longer worth what it's trading at. That is what I believe has happened to Schneider Electric here. For "proof", if you will, I point to the significant intra-year 2025 volatility we've seen from the company, up and down in April, October, and December, now climbing up in February of 2026. The company is now trading at a substantial, almost 100% premium to its 20-year average. This is what I view as incredibly dangerous. In fact, I believe I held onto my shares in the company longer than I should - but it's because of exactly the reasons that many bulls are now posting - it simply is a very good company. The bullish arguments for further growth for the company here do exist. I will make certain to "field" those as well in my valuation section for the company, but I believe they are far too positive, all things considered. In this article, I double down on what is a comparatively bearish view on Schneider. Not because I don't believe the company will grow, but because I believe the growth shouldn't be as highly valued as the market seems to be estimating here. Schneider Electric Investor Presentation 2026 IR I do confirm that Schneider has a solid, wide moat in terms of its operations and business. Very few companies can match this one - one of the only ones is Siemens ( SIEGY ), perhaps ABB (ABB). The fact is also that despite excellent performance, Schneider has not done as well as its peers have done this year. There is a significant difference in what some analysts see, relative to what other analysts (more bearish ones, like myself) see. Let's try to see if we can make those differences clearer. You can find my last article on the company here. Solid upside if you believe in a multi-decade growth theme at a very high premium I've gone on record with the fact that ...
Anywhere from $40 billion to $150 billion of leveraged loans packaged into US collateralized loan obligations could be disrupted by the artificial intelligence boom, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. That’s because those loans fall within sectors most associated with AI risk, according to the Wall Street lender, which released its estimate as a recap of the SFVegas 2026 conference where software’s...
Anywhere from $40 billion to $150 billion of leveraged loans packaged into US collateralized loan obligations could be disrupted by the artificial intelligence boom, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. That’s because those loans fall within sectors most associated with AI risk, according to the Wall Street lender, which released its estimate as a recap of the SFVegas 2026 conference where software’s impact on corporate CLOs was “the topic du jour.” CLOs offer investors exposure to floating-rate debt, rather than fixed-rate corporate bonds. They do this by bundling leveraged loans into bond-like products with differing levels of risk and reward, which are then sold. Lately, CLO managers have been sifting through their portfolios to determine which loans are most exposed to AI’s impact, following a sharp selloff in software loans sparked by Anthropic PBC’s release of its powerful Claude chatbot. “AI-pocalypse? That seems over the top,” JPMorgan strategists led by Rishad Ahluwalia wrote in their Thursday note. “While the focus on software is valid, we have told investors we feel it is more important (if more nebulous at this stage) to consider the impact of broader AI disruption on CLO credit risk.” To come up with their $40 billion-$150 billion estimate, the strategists looked at a simplified screen for CLO AI credit risk using market price and ratings information. Still, they acknowledge that the approach needs more nuance and refining, citing the healthcare sector as an example where proprietary data issues and a complex regulatory environment make it difficult to offer more clarity to investors. Riskiest CLO Funds Are Flashing a Warning Sign: Credit Weekly Carlyle, BlackRock Buy Cheap Software Loans to Boost CLO Profits BNP Sees Wider BB, B CLO Spreads on AI Risk: Structured Weekly The strategists also highlighted concerns around loan refinancing risks, noting that around $51 billion of software debt rated B- or lower is set to mature in 2028, and a further $50 billi...
April WTI crude oil (CLJ26 ) on Friday closed up +1.81 (+2.78%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ26 ) closed up +0.0318 (+1.41%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied sharply on Friday, with crude posting a 7-month high and gasoline posting an 8-month high. Concerns about a potential US strike on...
April WTI crude oil (CLJ26 ) on Friday closed up +1.81 (+2.78%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ26 ) closed up +0.0318 (+1.41%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied sharply on Friday, with crude posting a 7-month high and gasoline posting an 8-month high. Concerns about a potential US strike on...
April Nymex natural gas (NGJ26 ) on Friday closed up by +0.032 (+1.13%). April nat-gas prices settled higher on Friday on geopolitical risks. Gas prices rallied in sympathy with Friday's rally in crude oil to a 7-month high on fears that a conflict with Iran could disrupt regional shipments of...
April Nymex natural gas (NGJ26 ) on Friday closed up by +0.032 (+1.13%). April nat-gas prices settled higher on Friday on geopolitical risks. Gas prices rallied in sympathy with Friday's rally in crude oil to a 7-month high on fears that a conflict with Iran could disrupt regional shipments of...
SpaceX Readies IPO Paperwork For March, Targeting $1.75 Trillion Valuation SpaceX is preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering as early as next month, people familiar with the matter said, advancing plans for what could become the largest listing ever, according to Bloomberg . The Starbase, Texas-based rocket and satellite company is expected to submit draft IPO paperwork to ...
SpaceX Readies IPO Paperwork For March, Targeting $1.75 Trillion Valuation SpaceX is preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering as early as next month, people familiar with the matter said, advancing plans for what could become the largest listing ever, according to Bloomberg . The Starbase, Texas-based rocket and satellite company is expected to submit draft IPO paperwork to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in March, potentially positioning it for a June debut. That timing would make it the first in a possible wave of mega-offerings, with OpenAI and Anthropic PBC possibly following. Deliberations are ongoing and plans could shift, the people cautioned, noting the filing could still be postponed. Bloomberg writes that some of the people said SpaceX may pursue a valuation above $1.75 trillion, speaking anonymously because discussions are private. The company recently acquired xAI, Elon Musk’s AI venture, in a February deal valuing the combined business at $1.25 trillion, Bloomberg News reported. A confidential filing would allow SpaceX to receive regulatory feedback and revise disclosures before they are made public. A representative for the company did not immediately comment. The IPO could raise as much as $50 billion, which would exceed Saudi Aramco’s record $29 billion offering in 2019. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX would rank behind only five members of the S&P 500 Index — Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. — and would surpass Meta Platforms Inc. as well as Musk’s Tesla Inc. by market value. In a memo, SpaceX said it is preparing for a possible 2026 IPO to finance an “insane flight rate” for its developing Starship rocket, space-based artificial intelligence data centers and a lunar base. The company has tapped Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley for senior underwriting roles and is weighing a dual-class share structure that could ...
President Donald Trump told the US government Friday to “immediately” stop using Anthropic’s technology after the AI start-up rejected the Pentagon’s demand that it agree to unconditional military use of its Claude models. Anthropic insists its technology should not be used for the mass surveillance of US citizens or deployed in fully autonomous weapons systems, while the Pentagon says it operates...
President Donald Trump told the US government Friday to “immediately” stop using Anthropic’s technology after the AI start-up rejected the Pentagon’s demand that it agree to unconditional military use of its Claude models. Anthropic insists its technology should not be used for the mass surveillance of US citizens or deployed in fully autonomous weapons systems, while the Pentagon says it operates within the law and that contracted suppliers cannot set terms on how their products are...
President Donald Trump directed US government agencies to stop using Anthropic PBC’s products, since the company and Pentagon can't agree on what the AI guardrails should be. Alondra Nelson, a member of the UN advisory board on AI and a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study, discusses this on Bloomberg the Close. (Source: Bloomberg)
President Donald Trump directed US government agencies to stop using Anthropic PBC’s products, since the company and Pentagon can't agree on what the AI guardrails should be. Alondra Nelson, a member of the UN advisory board on AI and a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study, discusses this on Bloomberg the Close. (Source: Bloomberg)
Earnings Call Insights: Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) Q4 2025 Management View CEO Louis Borgmann described 2025 as “a defining high-impact year,” noting that Calumet achieved several strategic milestones, including consistent free cash flow generation in Specialties, proving Montana Renewables’ financial resilience, closing the DOE loan for Montana Renewables, and materially deleveraging the balance sheet....
Earnings Call Insights: Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) Q4 2025 Management View CEO Louis Borgmann described 2025 as “a defining high-impact year,” noting that Calumet achieved several strategic milestones, including consistent free cash flow generation in Specialties, proving Montana Renewables’ financial resilience, closing the DOE loan for Montana Renewables, and materially deleveraging the balance sheet. Borgmann stated, “For full year 2025, we delivered $293 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, nearly a 30% increase year-over-year. We reduced restricted debt by more than $220 million. Net recourse leverage improved from 8.2x to 4.9x.” Borgmann highlighted structural improvements: “Fixed costs were down over $40 million. Water treatment costs at Montana Renewables were down over $20 million as were our crude transportation costs in the Specialties business… capital spending was also reduced by roughly $20 million. At the same time, our ops team increased production by roughly 1.3 million barrels on the year.” He reported record levels of production in Specialty Products & Solutions, with specialty sales volumes exceeding 20,000 barrels per day throughout every quarter. “Our commercial engine more than kept up as we sustained material margins above historic norms despite softer macro conditions.” On Montana Renewables, Borgmann cited a 60% improvement in operating costs over two years and the completion of multiyear SAF contracts at a $1–$2 per gallon premium over renewable diesel. “These contracts are all multiyear… opening up premium renewable markets globally that complement the strong local markets we serve.” The MaxSAF 150 expansion project is set to bring 120 million to 150 million gallons of annual SAF capacity online, with the turnaround and project beginning next week and completion targeted for late April. CFO David Lunin reported, “We generated $69.3 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes in the quarter and $293.3 million for the full year 2025...
DNY59/iStock via Getty Images Fast Facts YieldMax ® SMCI Option Income Strategy ETF ( SMCY ) is an actively managed ETF launched on 9/11/2024 with a primary objective of current income and a secondary objective of capped exposure to the common stock of Super Micro Computer Inc. ( SMCI ). SMCY has an expense ratio of 0.99% and an extremely high distribution rate: 85.83%. Distributions are paid on a...
DNY59/iStock via Getty Images Fast Facts YieldMax ® SMCI Option Income Strategy ETF ( SMCY ) is an actively managed ETF launched on 9/11/2024 with a primary objective of current income and a secondary objective of capped exposure to the common stock of Super Micro Computer Inc. ( SMCI ). SMCY has an expense ratio of 0.99% and an extremely high distribution rate: 85.83%. Distributions are paid on a weekly basis. SMCY is a small, but quite liquid ETF, with $150 million in assets under management and an average daily trading volume of $11 million. The fund’s issuer, YieldMax ETFs , is specialized in options-based income ETFs, including a series of single-stock products such as this one. Strategy As described in the prospectus by YieldMax ETFs, the Fund uses either a synthetic covered call strategy or a synthetic covered call spread strategy to provide income and indirect exposure to the share price returns of SMCI. This strategy provides income from the option premiums and exposure to the price returns of SMCI with a limit to the upside. The fund doesn’t invest directly in SMCI, only in options based on it. A covered call strategy consists in investing in an asset and selling (“writing”) one or more call options on it for a premium. In a synthetic covered call strategy, the long position in the asset is replaced with a “synthetic long” using a combination of options designed to replicate the asset’s price return. A synthetic long consists in buying call options and selling put options on the underlying asset with a strike price approximately equal to the asset’s price at the time of initiating the positions. These options typically have one-month to six month terms. The fund may also use synthetic covered call spreads. Instead of just selling a call against the synthetic long, it will then sell a call and buy another call with a higher strike price for the same expiration date. Buying an additional call reduces the premium income, but also limits the risk of loss on th...