blackCAT/E+ via Getty Images Novo Nordisk ( NVO ) has experienced a hefty sell-off following worse-than-expected trial results of their weight loss drug CagriSema. Simultaneously, their main competitor, Eli Lilly ( LLY ), managed to keep or even expand their edge. Data by YCharts Data by YCharts I believe that this is once again a massive overreaction by the market, and here is why. What Caused Th...
blackCAT/E+ via Getty Images Novo Nordisk ( NVO ) has experienced a hefty sell-off following worse-than-expected trial results of their weight loss drug CagriSema. Simultaneously, their main competitor, Eli Lilly ( LLY ), managed to keep or even expand their edge. Data by YCharts Data by YCharts I believe that this is once again a massive overreaction by the market, and here is why. What Caused The Sell-Off And Why Is It Excessive? Several headlines stated that NVO's CagriSema failed to beat LLY's Zepbound . These were based on the latest Phase III REDEFINE 4 trial results, where CagriSema (combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide) achieved an average weight loss of 22.7% over 84 weeks —compared to Zepbound's mean efficacy of 25.5% in the same time frame. This is a miss of 280 basis points that caused Novo's stock to sell off by more than 20%. The market is also missing one critical detail about the trial result: Novo seems to be conservative with its dosing. The current clinical trial utilized a 2.4mg dose, while in contrast, Lilly achieved the higher weight loss with a dosage of 15mg. First trials already indicate that a higher dosage of 7.2mg could boost Novo's efficacy by up to 18.3% —matching or even exceeding Lilly's metrics. If we apply this improvement to the current trial, I think NVO could achieve a weight loss of 26.8% over 84 weeks. Novo's decision to stay at 2.4mg seems like a strategic move to prioritize safety and minimize potential side effects. While I personally like this move, I believe it should have communicated this more openly, which would have certainly helped to ease investors' concerns. Even if Lilly's drug will eventually come out on top, it is highly unlikely that they will manage to dominate the massive weight loss medication market—expected to reach $67 billion by 2034 —on their own. Convenience, for example through Novo's recently approved weight loss pill, and pricing, as well as potential side effects of each drug, will certainly ...
Comments come as tensions between two countries reach new high after capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro Donald Trump has suggested the US could carry out a “friendly takeover” of Cuba as tensions between Washington and Havana reach a new high following the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro . As he left the White House for a campaigning event in Texas on Friday, Trump said: “The Cuban govern...
Comments come as tensions between two countries reach new high after capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro Donald Trump has suggested the US could carry out a “friendly takeover” of Cuba as tensions between Washington and Havana reach a new high following the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro . As he left the White House for a campaigning event in Texas on Friday, Trump said: “The Cuban government is talking with us. They’re in a big deal of trouble.” Continue reading...
Amid another weak day in the market driven by concerns over AI, investors Steve Weiss and Kevin Simpson revealed how they're moving their money in an appearance on CNBC's " Halftime Report ." Weiss said he sold "Magnificent Seven" member Nvidia . The founder and managing partner at Short Hills Capital Partners is worried about increasing competition from other hyperscalers such as Meta , Microsoft...
Amid another weak day in the market driven by concerns over AI, investors Steve Weiss and Kevin Simpson revealed how they're moving their money in an appearance on CNBC's " Halftime Report ." Weiss said he sold "Magnificent Seven" member Nvidia . The founder and managing partner at Short Hills Capital Partners is worried about increasing competition from other hyperscalers such as Meta , Microsoft , Google and Amazon as they move into the chips space. "The stock is pretty much wallowing in the 180, the 190 range. I think it will go up over time, I just think near term it's going to be stuck there," Weiss said. NVDA 3M mountain NVDA 3-month chart. Weiss also said he sold Amazon. While he believes that the company's capital expenditure plans make sense and will yield good returns, the timeline is long and he has concerns about how potential AI disruptions in the labor market may weigh on the stock. Amazon shares are down more than 9% year to date. Meanwhile, he bought more shares of Netflix after it backed out of trying to buy Warner Bros Discovery . With the deal skuttled, the streaming service can invest more in its own content, and not be cash strapped when other opportunities arise to purchase content, Weiss said. Netflix shares have surged nearly 22% as the deal with Warner Bros unraveled. Simpson purchased Apple on the hunch the stock is insulated from AI capex fears since it has poured less investment into the area compared with its peers. The founder and CIO of Capital Wealth Planning said the partnership between Apple and Google on its Siri product creates potential upside. "How many years have we sat here saying they'll get Siri right at some point?" he asked. "I think this is the year that comes to fruition." Apple shares are down about 2% year to date. Simpson also bought Microsoft, believing the stock is oversold. Shares of the company are down nearly 19% in 2026. MSFT YTD mountain MSFT year-to-date chart. Lastly, Simpson said he purchased Norfolk Souther...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis CoreWeave, Inc. ( CRWV ) just had one of the best infrastructure growth quarters in cloud history, growing revenues by 110% and growing its backlog to $66.8 billion. Even though CRWV is down since my last coverage , the post-earnings drop is not due to weakening demand but due to the magnitude of the required CapEx in 2026 and the rise in interest exp...
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis CoreWeave, Inc. ( CRWV ) just had one of the best infrastructure growth quarters in cloud history, growing revenues by 110% and growing its backlog to $66.8 billion. Even though CRWV is down since my last coverage , the post-earnings drop is not due to weakening demand but due to the magnitude of the required CapEx in 2026 and the rise in interest expense, which has changed the narrative from a growth play to a capital allocation play. The fundamentals are still very favorable if management can successfully execute on improving margins and converting the backlog. This is a high-upside AI infrastructure compounder, but the key now is the timing and the balance sheet . Data by YCharts From Backlog Euphoria to Balance Sheet Reality CoreWeave’s Q4 earnings were the type of report that can be considered technically strong but also emotionally uncomfortable at the same time. They beat with $1.572 billion of revenue, up 110% YoY, and extended their contracted revenue backlog to $66.8 billion . Earnings Q4 2025 In any other growth story, these two numbers would settle any debate. Yet the stock went down, and I understand why. When a company commits to at least $30-$35 billion of Capex spending in 2026 while also posting a $452 million GAAP net loss in one quarter, the conversation stops being about the demand curve and starts becoming about the financing curve. My view is quite simple, uncomfortable but very investable if one accepts it. CoreWeave is not being valued on the size of the AI industry. It is being valued on whether it can keep its hypergrowth synchronized with the cost of capital. And today, the market is implying a non-trivial probability that the former will not be synchronized with the latter. Earnings Q4 2025 With regard to operating, the company is continuing to operate as a company that found a rare pocket of structural scarcity. The revenue growth came in at $5.13 billion, growing 168% year-over-year, which ...
Coal markets have moved beyond the emergency pricing that once benefited producers like Core Natural Resources. With supply constraints easing and demand patterns stabilizing, the company now operates in a more conventional commodity cycle.
Coal markets have moved beyond the emergency pricing that once benefited producers like Core Natural Resources. With supply constraints easing and demand patterns stabilizing, the company now operates in a more conventional commodity cycle.
Key PointsContrarian Capital Management, L.L.C. sold 187,676 shares of Core Natural Resources; estimated transaction value ~$16.00 million (approximation based on average fourth-quarter pricing)
Key PointsContrarian Capital Management, L.L.C. sold 187,676 shares of Core Natural Resources; estimated transaction value ~$16.00 million (approximation based on average fourth-quarter pricing)
SITE Centers ( SITC ) was trading lower as Piper Sandler downgraded the stock, citing that it is "trading essentially at our liquidation value". The investment bank had updated its net asset value estimate on the stock to $6.40. Shares were 8.52% down to $6.18 during afternoon trading on Friday. "While there is potential for upside based on how the final asset sales go, given the demand for retail...
SITE Centers ( SITC ) was trading lower as Piper Sandler downgraded the stock, citing that it is "trading essentially at our liquidation value". The investment bank had updated its net asset value estimate on the stock to $6.40. Shares were 8.52% down to $6.18 during afternoon trading on Friday. "While there is potential for upside based on how the final asset sales go, given the demand for retail, we don't see enough upside to warrant maintaining the OW," said analysts Alexander Goldfarb and Connor Mitchell, downgrading the stock to Neutral from Overweight. The new target price is $6.50, compared to $8.00 prior. Piper Sandler reduced its 2026 FFO estimate for SITE Centers by $0.08 to -$0.08, and cut the 2027 estimate by $0.16 to -$0.14. The consensus stands at $0.09 and -$0.11, respectively. The rating aligns with the average Wall Street analysts rating of Hold. Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system sees the stock as Strong Sell. More on SITE Centers SITE Centers Q4 Earnings Preview Small-Cap sell signals: 10 stocks with longest run in bearish Quant ratings Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on SITE Centers Historical earnings data for SITE Centers Financial information for SITE Centers